Lugesin Yripyevast, et myningad EESTI eksportyyrid said forex-iga ehk praeguse US langusega kahjumit. Niipalju kui mina asjast aru saan on EESTI corporatiivses maailmas hedging siiski veel kyllaltki vyyras teema.
vytame siis nyiteks talupidajad, kes ei soovi ennast kindlustada vaid loodavad mingitele Eurotoetustele vyi siis nyiteks eksportyyrid kes ei kasuta forwardeid, futuure vyi optsioone.
Yrielus on see kahjuks vyga tyhtis. Vend RIQ vyib siin ryykida kyll myygimeeste comissionitest ja vend VEIKJI kinnisvara eelistusest investeeringutele, aga kui sa ikka kaotad nyiteks tynu valuuta tyusu vyi languse pyrast nii ostu kui ka samuti myygipealt kokku ligikaudu 30% kokku, siis tyhendab see seda et sinu paari aasta tyy ja vaev on tehtud tasuta vyi mis veel hullem pankrotti.
kusjuures tead vend RIQ, et see on sinu syy! hehe ja tead miks? sest just nimelt sina oled see, kes ei teinud oma optsioonibuldooseri vigade parandust yra. Lisaks, mis puutub veel vene aktsiaturgudesse, siis see peaks ju tegema US pyhinevad aktsiad odavamaks lisaks on see veel emerging market. Muidugi kui pangad ei kuku tynu US odavnemisele.
Arvan, et vend GRAAFIK vyiks teha seminari vyhemalt foreign exchange-ist, selle hedge- ingu kasulikkusest ja vajalikkusest.
Oo, ma leidsin endanimelise printsiibi:
Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle: "Any interaction between an observer and the observed changes both. The more an observer probes, the more difficult it is for him to obtain information about the initial state of what he observes and the more are his observations contaminated by his own efforts."
Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle: "Any interaction between an observer and the observed changes both. The more an observer probes, the more difficult it is for him to obtain information about the initial state of what he observes and the more are his observations contaminated by his own efforts."
Heisenberg ise pani selle kirja veidi teaduslikumalt :)
The more precisely the position is determined, the less precisely the momentum is known in this instant, and vice versa
link siin
The more precisely the position is determined, the less precisely the momentum is known in this instant, and vice versa
link siin
Mõte jääb samaks,
Määramatus aktsiaturul:
Me uurime ja jälgime turgu, teeme investeerimisotsuseid. Samas investeerimistehinguga me ise muudame turu konditsiooni s.t. investeerimisel turutingimused muutuvad ja me peaks juba uut olukorda uurima ja uusi otsuseid tegema
Määramatus aktsiaturul:
Me uurime ja jälgime turgu, teeme investeerimisotsuseid. Samas investeerimistehinguga me ise muudame turu konditsiooni s.t. investeerimisel turutingimused muutuvad ja me peaks juba uut olukorda uurima ja uusi otsuseid tegema
... ja vahest ka wishful thinking aktsiaturul e. investorite nägemus turu suhtes sõltub nende positsioonidest.
Mida rohkem pikki/lühikesi positsioone investoril on seda kindlamalt pullisemaks/karusemaks muutub tema nägemus e. positsioonid pimestavad reaalsuse.
Mida rohkem pikki/lühikesi positsioone investoril on seda kindlamalt pullisemaks/karusemaks muutub tema nägemus e. positsioonid pimestavad reaalsuse.
kristjan,
sellistest aabitsatõdedest võiks väiks kogumiku kokku panna ja LHV nime all üllitada. Nagu midagi meie Saario taolist. Abiks oleks investoritele igatahes.
Minu meelest on selle tõdemuse mõistmine tunduvalt olulisem kui igasugused arvutused aktsia õige ja õiglase hinna kohta jms...
sellistest aabitsatõdedest võiks väiks kogumiku kokku panna ja LHV nime all üllitada. Nagu midagi meie Saario taolist. Abiks oleks investoritele igatahes.
Minu meelest on selle tõdemuse mõistmine tunduvalt olulisem kui igasugused arvutused aktsia õige ja õiglase hinna kohta jms...
Vabandan juba ette, et kopeeritav jutt on väga pikk, kuid mulle tundus nii erakordselt mõistlik, et soovitan siiski kõigil valuutahuvilistel seda lugeda.
Mr. Practical (by John Succo)
I met up with on old friend of mine a few days ago. His name is Mr. Practical and if you don’t know him (he tends to stay under the radar screen), he is quite a character, an enigma to most. He is truly a man of the world, traveling freely to any country, for he has access to some special sort of visa, spending from only a few weeks or months to several years in any one place (there is a particular reason for this that I will soon explain).
His resources are limited, although I hear that they have become quite substantial. He is known to take almost obsessive care in his finances. In fact, rumor has it that he inherited a small sum from an uncle at a young age and since hasn’t worked a day in his life, earning all he needs from his investments. His opinions and methods in this area, although well respected, are quite unique, so I was quite interested in what he had to say about the current environment.
I found him in Madrid. I already knew why he was there. You see Mr. Practical travels to and lives in a country in which he believes the currency will strengthen against the other world currencies. Wherever he goes, because almost all of his assets are liquid, he transfers these assets into the currency of that country. This seemed silly to me at first, but once he explained the thought process it made perfect sense. Our assets, everything we own from our houses down to our socks, are priced in the currency of the country in which we live. That means the value of those assets continuously increases and decreases relative to those of other countries. We normal folk don’t really notice this much because short term currency fluctuations tend to be diminutive. But when a country’s currency declines in value relative to other currencies in a sustained and meaningful way, the people of that country begin to take notice, generally seeing rising prices for goods and services imported from other countries.
Mr. Practical told me that this process of continuously moving his assets into the currency that appreciates against other currencies has been the single largest contributor to the increase in his net worth. Being nearly one hundred years old, he has become extremely adept at this.
He has spent very little time over the last eighty years or so in the U.S., first leaving in the late 1920’s. He once told me that since then the U.S. dollar has lost 90% of its purchasing power (I didn’t believe this, but after looking it up it turns out that he is right). He recalls fondly how he used to be able to buy an apple for a dime then; now it costs a dollar.
His decision to leave the U.S. back then was predicated on the amount of debt relative to GDP that was being built up. He argued that although conventional wisdom dictates that strong economic growth drives currency valuation in the short run, the real long term driver is the level of debt. You see, he is not all that interested in weeks or months or really all that interested in short term returns either. He is focused on risk, first concerned with protecting his assets from deterioration.
He is not completely averse to debt and advocates the intelligent use of it. Debt can transfer future income and wealth to the present. Higher debt in the beginning of an expansion drives incomes higher, but at some point in the cycle it usually (because human beings ignore risk when they can) becomes unsustainable, and this is where he gets off the boat. Debt is very easy to accumulate, but very difficult to pay back.
He spent a good portion of the seventies in Japan where the yen has appreciated 67% against the dollar. He spent a little time in the U.S. in the mid-nineties on a lark and has since been in Europe. In his opinion the amount of liquidity injected by the Federal Reserve into the U.S. system has created debt levels not seen since the 1920’s. Combine that with the fact that U.S. consumption is predicated on a relatively stable dollar since we borrow nearly $1.5 billion each day to finance this consumption, and you have a real potential problem. The key word is potential for the situation could last for years. But Mr. Practical looks at risk first, so when he sees potential, he walks the other way. In his way of thinking, why should the dollar remain stable given the fact that it has declined so substantially over long term anyway and there are currently forces that make matters even worse than usual? He told me to just look at the price of gold as a clue.
Mr. Practical doesn’t normally like to talk about stocks, for he believes that in the short run the market is driven almost exclusively by psychology and in all his years he still hasn’t really figured out human beings. He did offer one piece of advice on the subject, however. “To a long term investor, it doesn’t matter a whit about picking stocks. There may be some individuals who can pick stocks successfully, although the preponderance of evidence suggests those people are very few: the average mutual fund has underperformed the SP500 by 100 to 200 basis points per year. What really matters is proper asset allocation. I am always invested in the stock market indexes, but I allocate a much smaller amount to them than conventional wisdom suggests, normally between 5% and 30% of my net worth. This allows me to stay in the market when it turns down and not sell. It is much more important not to sell at the wrong time than it is to buy at the right time.”
Unfortunately, this was all the time he had to talk. I asked if he was running off to advise some head of state. He laughed. “They don’t listen to me. They are much too short term oriented.” I asked him where I could meet up with him next in case some Minyans had some specific questions. He said he was thinking about moving to Beijing.
Mr. Practical (by John Succo)
I met up with on old friend of mine a few days ago. His name is Mr. Practical and if you don’t know him (he tends to stay under the radar screen), he is quite a character, an enigma to most. He is truly a man of the world, traveling freely to any country, for he has access to some special sort of visa, spending from only a few weeks or months to several years in any one place (there is a particular reason for this that I will soon explain).
His resources are limited, although I hear that they have become quite substantial. He is known to take almost obsessive care in his finances. In fact, rumor has it that he inherited a small sum from an uncle at a young age and since hasn’t worked a day in his life, earning all he needs from his investments. His opinions and methods in this area, although well respected, are quite unique, so I was quite interested in what he had to say about the current environment.
I found him in Madrid. I already knew why he was there. You see Mr. Practical travels to and lives in a country in which he believes the currency will strengthen against the other world currencies. Wherever he goes, because almost all of his assets are liquid, he transfers these assets into the currency of that country. This seemed silly to me at first, but once he explained the thought process it made perfect sense. Our assets, everything we own from our houses down to our socks, are priced in the currency of the country in which we live. That means the value of those assets continuously increases and decreases relative to those of other countries. We normal folk don’t really notice this much because short term currency fluctuations tend to be diminutive. But when a country’s currency declines in value relative to other currencies in a sustained and meaningful way, the people of that country begin to take notice, generally seeing rising prices for goods and services imported from other countries.
Mr. Practical told me that this process of continuously moving his assets into the currency that appreciates against other currencies has been the single largest contributor to the increase in his net worth. Being nearly one hundred years old, he has become extremely adept at this.
He has spent very little time over the last eighty years or so in the U.S., first leaving in the late 1920’s. He once told me that since then the U.S. dollar has lost 90% of its purchasing power (I didn’t believe this, but after looking it up it turns out that he is right). He recalls fondly how he used to be able to buy an apple for a dime then; now it costs a dollar.
His decision to leave the U.S. back then was predicated on the amount of debt relative to GDP that was being built up. He argued that although conventional wisdom dictates that strong economic growth drives currency valuation in the short run, the real long term driver is the level of debt. You see, he is not all that interested in weeks or months or really all that interested in short term returns either. He is focused on risk, first concerned with protecting his assets from deterioration.
He is not completely averse to debt and advocates the intelligent use of it. Debt can transfer future income and wealth to the present. Higher debt in the beginning of an expansion drives incomes higher, but at some point in the cycle it usually (because human beings ignore risk when they can) becomes unsustainable, and this is where he gets off the boat. Debt is very easy to accumulate, but very difficult to pay back.
He spent a good portion of the seventies in Japan where the yen has appreciated 67% against the dollar. He spent a little time in the U.S. in the mid-nineties on a lark and has since been in Europe. In his opinion the amount of liquidity injected by the Federal Reserve into the U.S. system has created debt levels not seen since the 1920’s. Combine that with the fact that U.S. consumption is predicated on a relatively stable dollar since we borrow nearly $1.5 billion each day to finance this consumption, and you have a real potential problem. The key word is potential for the situation could last for years. But Mr. Practical looks at risk first, so when he sees potential, he walks the other way. In his way of thinking, why should the dollar remain stable given the fact that it has declined so substantially over long term anyway and there are currently forces that make matters even worse than usual? He told me to just look at the price of gold as a clue.
Mr. Practical doesn’t normally like to talk about stocks, for he believes that in the short run the market is driven almost exclusively by psychology and in all his years he still hasn’t really figured out human beings. He did offer one piece of advice on the subject, however. “To a long term investor, it doesn’t matter a whit about picking stocks. There may be some individuals who can pick stocks successfully, although the preponderance of evidence suggests those people are very few: the average mutual fund has underperformed the SP500 by 100 to 200 basis points per year. What really matters is proper asset allocation. I am always invested in the stock market indexes, but I allocate a much smaller amount to them than conventional wisdom suggests, normally between 5% and 30% of my net worth. This allows me to stay in the market when it turns down and not sell. It is much more important not to sell at the wrong time than it is to buy at the right time.”
Unfortunately, this was all the time he had to talk. I asked if he was running off to advise some head of state. He laughed. “They don’t listen to me. They are much too short term oriented.” I asked him where I could meet up with him next in case some Minyans had some specific questions. He said he was thinking about moving to Beijing.
kas nsvli ei hävitanud mitte s6jamasina ylalpidamiskulud?
kas nyyd teeb mr.marss sama ka usa'ga?
kas nyyd teeb mr.marss sama ka usa'ga?
kas keegi oskab ehk välja tuua m6ned materjalid, kust saaks luegda n6rga usdiga kaasnevaid börsiliikumistre spekulatsioone? n6rk taal peaks ju ettev6ttetele hasti m6juma usas.. ometi seekord oopis turg kukkus. kus läheb siis piir? ja millal eurooplased oma papi usast välja toovad, ja kuhu nad selle siis panevad. aasiasse?
st kus oleks veits intro't valutsi m6just turgudele?
st kus oleks veits intro't valutsi m6just turgudele?
Sellel teemal on lahe lugeda selle nädala economisti world economic surveyd...
EUR/USD just murdis 1.1500 vastupanu.Järgmine ja oluline vastupanu on 1.1550.Kui see kah murtakse ilma gap-i täitmata,on võimalik 1.1930
vastupanu murdmisest asi siiski kaugel, kurss käis paariks minutiks üle 1.15 piiri ja päeva high oli koguni 1.525, seejärel aga kukuti kiiresti 1.148 juurde tagasi
See,et hind sinna püsima ei jäänud on täitsa normaalne.Hind langes Fibo0,5-1.1487(intraday) piirile .Kas tegemist EUR nõrkusega või väikese tagasipõrkega,näitab aeg.Endal stop fibo0,5 all
riq
morganstanley.com/global economic forum.
Kas just börsikursside liikumisest väga palju räägitakse aga muidu asjalik ja neutraalne analüüs globaalmajandusest ning selle võimalikust arengust.Eriti head on minumeelest Stephen Roach-i kommentaarid.
Kas keegi oskab soovitada paremaid insrumente mängimaks USD langusele aastases perspektiivis.
Priit,
Eks kasuta optsioone, kui selge nagemus olemas.
Aga kui motled USD langust EUR suhtes, siis...mina panustaksin aastases perspektiivis pigem euro langusele dollari suhtes kui vastupidi.
Peamine pohjus, miks euro hakkab vaikselt allavett minema, on minu arvates see, et ka Euroopa suured, Prantsusega eesotsas, ei tahaks hasti 3%-st eelarvedefitsiidist kinni pidada. Aga kui eelarvedistsipliin kaest laheb, siis pole eurol pikka pidu. Majanduskasv on nagunii praktiliselt olematu, samas kui USAs tunduvad siiski asjad ulesmage minevat - Q3 GDP arvatakse tulevat ule 4 %, inflatsiooniohtu ka nagu pole ning maksureformid hakkavad juba vilju kandma. USA murelapseks on muidugi suur valisvolg, mida rohked sojakulutused pidevalt suurendavad. Sellele vaatamata arvan, et Euroopas on probleeme rohkem ning tugev euro ei tule kuidagi majanduskasvule (loe: ekspordile) kasuks. Juba on kuulda olnud, et mitmed suured ettevotted nurisevad tugeva euro parast, kui see sisemine surve suureneb, siis on juures veel uks faktor, mis raagib EUR/USD kursilanguse kasuks.
Ja ei tohiks ara unustada sedagi, et 2004 on USA-s presidendivalimiste aasta - verbaalseid interventsioone dollari toetuseks hakkab kindlasti rohkelt tulema:)
Minu ennustus: aasta parast on EUR/USD pariteedi lahedal voi isegi alla selle.
Elame, naeme.
Eks kasuta optsioone, kui selge nagemus olemas.
Aga kui motled USD langust EUR suhtes, siis...mina panustaksin aastases perspektiivis pigem euro langusele dollari suhtes kui vastupidi.
Peamine pohjus, miks euro hakkab vaikselt allavett minema, on minu arvates see, et ka Euroopa suured, Prantsusega eesotsas, ei tahaks hasti 3%-st eelarvedefitsiidist kinni pidada. Aga kui eelarvedistsipliin kaest laheb, siis pole eurol pikka pidu. Majanduskasv on nagunii praktiliselt olematu, samas kui USAs tunduvad siiski asjad ulesmage minevat - Q3 GDP arvatakse tulevat ule 4 %, inflatsiooniohtu ka nagu pole ning maksureformid hakkavad juba vilju kandma. USA murelapseks on muidugi suur valisvolg, mida rohked sojakulutused pidevalt suurendavad. Sellele vaatamata arvan, et Euroopas on probleeme rohkem ning tugev euro ei tule kuidagi majanduskasvule (loe: ekspordile) kasuks. Juba on kuulda olnud, et mitmed suured ettevotted nurisevad tugeva euro parast, kui see sisemine surve suureneb, siis on juures veel uks faktor, mis raagib EUR/USD kursilanguse kasuks.
Ja ei tohiks ara unustada sedagi, et 2004 on USA-s presidendivalimiste aasta - verbaalseid interventsioone dollari toetuseks hakkab kindlasti rohkelt tulema:)
Minu ennustus: aasta parast on EUR/USD pariteedi lahedal voi isegi alla selle.
Elame, naeme.
Saudid tõmbavad oma raha USA majandusest välja. Neil seda seal umbes 800 miljardit. Pole välistatud, et osa raha paigutatakse Venemaa majandusse, nafta tööstusesse näiteks.
Mis see Iraagi sõdagi muud oli kui dollari toetamise operatsioon. Iraak ju kauples naftaga dollari asemel euros. Ja võitis sellest päris korralikult. Ja kui OPEC-i suuremad tema eeskuju oleks järginud, oleks dollar põlvili.
Tänane FT kirjutab pikema analüüsi kasvavatest Aasia maade reservidest, mida hoitakse USD riiklikus võlas. Selle maht kokku vist juba 2,5 triljonit (võrreldes aastataguse 1 triljoniga)... Väidetavalt umbes pool USA jooksevkonto defitsiidist just nende maade poolt finantseeritud - ehk siis Hiina ja Jaapan annavad USA tarbijatele laenu, et nood nende tehtud nodi osta saaksid justkui...
Ehk kui suurtest numbritest juba rääkida, siis see Saudide 800 miljardit veidi väiksem kui Aasia onude 2,5 triljonit (-:
Ehk kui suurtest numbritest juba rääkida, siis see Saudide 800 miljardit veidi väiksem kui Aasia onude 2,5 triljonit (-:
spunk123 - sa oled presidendi valimistest natuke valesti aru saanud.
Ameerika valimised maksavad kinni suured korporatsioonid. Nemad on juba aastaid palunud/anunud/kärkinud/ähvardanud hr Bushi, et dollar on liiga tugev.
järgmise aasta valimisi silmas pidades on väga väike võimalus, et dollar 1,0000 juurde tugevneb.
Praeguseks on majandus ikka väga haige. Kapitalimahutused pole taastunud; tarbijausaldus samuti mitte. Ainus, mis on natukenegi majandust üleval hoidnud, on nõrk dollar.
Ameerika valimised maksavad kinni suured korporatsioonid. Nemad on juba aastaid palunud/anunud/kärkinud/ähvardanud hr Bushi, et dollar on liiga tugev.
järgmise aasta valimisi silmas pidades on väga väike võimalus, et dollar 1,0000 juurde tugevneb.
Praeguseks on majandus ikka väga haige. Kapitalimahutused pole taastunud; tarbijausaldus samuti mitte. Ainus, mis on natukenegi majandust üleval hoidnud, on nõrk dollar.