To priitp,
Vihjasin sellele, et kas EESTI ruutmeetrihinna suhtarvude leidmise puhul ei peaks mingi kaaluga arvestama ka SOOME palku.
eesti puhul mitte, saaremaal mere ääres ja viru keskuses ehk :)
Uusmaa kinnisvarabüroo sügisene ülevaade võrdleb Euroopa suuremate linnade korterite ruutmeetrihindasid põgusalt (14 lk väike tabel), Oslo kesklinn on 4000 eur tipus, Tallinna kesklinn 1500 euroga põhjas. Aga üldiselt vahe kahekordne Tallinna kahjuks, aga palkade vahe tunduvalt suurem.
iirimaal on 1. jaanuarist miinimupalk 8 euri tunnist. ja et saada dublinis 2 toalist(+2 vannituba ) korterit 500 euri kuus siis peaksid seda uurima oma emalt(isalt, vennalt vms). pigem usuks kui üür oleks 500 euri nädalas.
Jah, ja 0,5l Coca-Cola maksab ka New Yorgi kesklinnas tänavalt ostes mitte 7 EEK vaid 7 USD, nii et meid ootab kõva inflatsioon ees.
Kinnisvaraarendajad müüsid mullu rekordiliselt kortereid
26.01.2005 10:29 PM Online
Eelmisel aastal müüdi ja broneeriti umbes 2700 uut korterit, selgub täna Arco Vara avaldatud Eesti kinnisvaraturu ülevaatest, vahendab Äripäev Online.
See on peaaegu sama palju, kui kahe eelneva aasta jooksul kokku, märgib Arco Vara. 2003. aastal müüdi ja broneeriti 1750 ja aasta varem 1362 uut korterit.
Praegu on müügis umbes 900 uuskorterit, millest enamus valmib aasta teises pooles. Eelmise aasta lõpus alustati mitmete mahukate uuselamuprojektidega Jüri alevikus, Haabneemes ja mujal, kus planeeritavad kogumahud ületavad 500 korterit.
Suurim uute korterite nõudlus püsib hinnaklassis 15.000 krooni ruutmeetrist. Uutest korteritest soovitakse üha enam kolmetoalisi.
Sama suured renoveerimata korterid Tallinna magalarajoonides, mille eest ostjad on nõus maksma 10 protsenti vähem kui müüjad küsivad, enam hästi kaubaks ei lähe.
Rahuldamata nõudluse survel jätkub ka pidev uute korterite hinnatõus, mis 2004. aastal jäi Tallinnas ja selle lähiümbruse erinevates piirkondades 10-15 protsendi piiresse.
26.01.2005 10:29 PM Online
Eelmisel aastal müüdi ja broneeriti umbes 2700 uut korterit, selgub täna Arco Vara avaldatud Eesti kinnisvaraturu ülevaatest, vahendab Äripäev Online.
See on peaaegu sama palju, kui kahe eelneva aasta jooksul kokku, märgib Arco Vara. 2003. aastal müüdi ja broneeriti 1750 ja aasta varem 1362 uut korterit.
Praegu on müügis umbes 900 uuskorterit, millest enamus valmib aasta teises pooles. Eelmise aasta lõpus alustati mitmete mahukate uuselamuprojektidega Jüri alevikus, Haabneemes ja mujal, kus planeeritavad kogumahud ületavad 500 korterit.
Suurim uute korterite nõudlus püsib hinnaklassis 15.000 krooni ruutmeetrist. Uutest korteritest soovitakse üha enam kolmetoalisi.
Sama suured renoveerimata korterid Tallinna magalarajoonides, mille eest ostjad on nõus maksma 10 protsenti vähem kui müüjad küsivad, enam hästi kaubaks ei lähe.
Rahuldamata nõudluse survel jätkub ka pidev uute korterite hinnatõus, mis 2004. aastal jäi Tallinnas ja selle lähiümbruse erinevates piirkondades 10-15 protsendi piiresse.
nii ArcoVara kui UusMaa ülevaated on kindlasti huvitavad.
Võib aga alati vaadata asju erinevate silmadega:
- 2004 oli aasta kui eestlaste (EUR)-eluasemeintressid langesid 28% !! (5,3%=>3,6%).
- Palgad tõusid kuskil 8%.
- Pangad tõusid oma laenumaht eraisikutele 50% ühe aastaga!!.
- Ehituskulud tõusid (10%)
- EL-liitumine
Ometi suutsid kinnisvarahinnad tõusta vaid umbes 10-15%.
Prognoos 2005......
Võib aga alati vaadata asju erinevate silmadega:
- 2004 oli aasta kui eestlaste (EUR)-eluasemeintressid langesid 28% !! (5,3%=>3,6%).
- Palgad tõusid kuskil 8%.
- Pangad tõusid oma laenumaht eraisikutele 50% ühe aastaga!!.
- Ehituskulud tõusid (10%)
- EL-liitumine
Ometi suutsid kinnisvarahinnad tõusta vaid umbes 10-15%.
Prognoos 2005......
Korrigeeritud:
Võib aga alati vaadata asju erinevate silmadega:
- 2004 oli aasta kui eestlaste (EUR)-eluasemeintressid langesid 32% !! (5,3%=>3,6%).
- Palgad tõusid kuskil 8%.
- Pangad tõusid oma laenumaht eraisikutele 50% ühe aastaga!!.
- Ehituskulud tõusid (10%)
- EL-liitumine
Ometi suutsid kinnisvarahinnad tõusta vaid umbes 10-15%.
Prognoos 2005......
stefaniga nõus. Arvestades laenude mahu kasvu oli kinnisvara hinnatõus tõesti väike.
Teeme väikesed arvutused Stefani toodud andmeid aluseks võttes. Abivahendina kasutame HP lehel olevat max. laenusumma kalkulaatorit. Võtame näiteks 15a eluasemelaenu.
1 case:
intress = 5,3
netopalk = 10,000
max laenusumma kuus = 4,000
max laen ca 500,00
intress = 3,6
netopalk = 10,800
max laenusumma kuus = 4,320
max laen ca 600,00
Max laenusumma kasvas aastaga 20%, mis võiks olla korrelatsioonis kinnisvara üldise hinnataseme tõusuga. Laenude mahu kasvu küll ei maksaks otseselt seostada, see on rohkem nagu käibenäitaja, kus iga kroon ei pea genereerima ostetava vara hinnatõusu. Mingi seos kindlasti on, kui ikka laenumahud langeksid, siis ei saaks ka KV hinnad tõusta. Küsimus on rohkem suurusjärgus. Ja 50% vestus 10-15% on päris usutav.
1 case:
intress = 5,3
netopalk = 10,000
max laenusumma kuus = 4,000
max laen ca 500,00
intress = 3,6
netopalk = 10,800
max laenusumma kuus = 4,320
max laen ca 600,00
Max laenusumma kasvas aastaga 20%, mis võiks olla korrelatsioonis kinnisvara üldise hinnataseme tõusuga. Laenude mahu kasvu küll ei maksaks otseselt seostada, see on rohkem nagu käibenäitaja, kus iga kroon ei pea genereerima ostetava vara hinnatõusu. Mingi seos kindlasti on, kui ikka laenumahud langeksid, siis ei saaks ka KV hinnad tõusta. Küsimus on rohkem suurusjärgus. Ja 50% vestus 10-15% on päris usutav.
jah, ega pankade laenuportfell, mis kasvas 50%, ei sisaldanud ju enne "kogu turgu", et korrelatisoon peaks KV hindade tõusuga 1 olema. 10-15% kogu turu mastaabis ei ole väike number, tegelikult - arvestades hindade lakkejõudmist ja isegi mõningast korrektisooni magalarajoonides möödunud aastal, mis moodustab siiski (väga) suure protsendi (nii tallinna kui kogu) eesti elamufondist.
Jooksevkonto jutulõimest tsitaat :
"Laenud jagunevad ca 50%-50% era- ja ettev6tlussektori vahel.
http://www.eestipank.info/dynamic/itp/itp_report.jsp?reference=13&className=EPSTAT&lang=et
See on juba t6sisem probleem kuna enamusel laenude on tagatiseks kinnisvara ja kinnisvaraturu hinnalangus v6ib indutseerida m6ningase tagasil88gi majanduses 2 p6hjusel
1) probleemide t6ttu laenudega, kuna sisemaiseid s22stud on imepisikesed.
2) samuti l88ks kinnisvara hinnalangus jalad alt ka ehitajatelt-kinnisvaraarendajatelt, kes toodavad ca 20% SKP-st"
Siin on IMHO loogikaviga muidu väga hea, pika ja põhjaliku jutu juures. Nimelt on jäetud kahe silma vahele probleemi endale ette kujutades kaks päris olulist asjaolu:
1) kinnisvaraturu hinnalangus võib tekkida tagasilöögi puhul majanduses tervikuna, mitte vastupidi
2) kinnisvaraturu hinnalangus ei saa mitte kuidagi jalgu alt lüüa ehitajatelt-kinnisvaraarendajatelt, kes töötavad kasumimarginaaliga 30-50% ja nende toodete (ennekõike uusehitised) järgi jääb nõudlus väga kauaks pakkumist ületama.
"Laenud jagunevad ca 50%-50% era- ja ettev6tlussektori vahel.
http://www.eestipank.info/dynamic/itp/itp_report.jsp?reference=13&className=EPSTAT&lang=et
See on juba t6sisem probleem kuna enamusel laenude on tagatiseks kinnisvara ja kinnisvaraturu hinnalangus v6ib indutseerida m6ningase tagasil88gi majanduses 2 p6hjusel
1) probleemide t6ttu laenudega, kuna sisemaiseid s22stud on imepisikesed.
2) samuti l88ks kinnisvara hinnalangus jalad alt ka ehitajatelt-kinnisvaraarendajatelt, kes toodavad ca 20% SKP-st"
Siin on IMHO loogikaviga muidu väga hea, pika ja põhjaliku jutu juures. Nimelt on jäetud kahe silma vahele probleemi endale ette kujutades kaks päris olulist asjaolu:
1) kinnisvaraturu hinnalangus võib tekkida tagasilöögi puhul majanduses tervikuna, mitte vastupidi
2) kinnisvaraturu hinnalangus ei saa mitte kuidagi jalgu alt lüüa ehitajatelt-kinnisvaraarendajatelt, kes töötavad kasumimarginaaliga 30-50% ja nende toodete (ennekõike uusehitised) järgi jääb nõudlus väga kauaks pakkumist ületama.
Huvitavat ja mõtlemapanevat infot:
Eesti üks rikkamaid inimesi ja ka suurimaid kinnisvaraomanikke (keegi kelle nime paljud kuulnud on kuid kelle nägu väga vähesed näinud on, nimetagem teda tinglikult Laine Laud:)) on hiljuti avaldanud arvamust, et Eestis pole kinnisvara enam atraktiivne investeerimisobjekt.
Eesti üks rikkamaid inimesi ja ka suurimaid kinnisvaraomanikke (keegi kelle nime paljud kuulnud on kuid kelle nägu väga vähesed näinud on, nimetagem teda tinglikult Laine Laud:)) on hiljuti avaldanud arvamust, et Eestis pole kinnisvara enam atraktiivne investeerimisobjekt.
Taustaks ja ülevaateks aktuaalseid probleeme Ameerika ärikinnisvaraturul, spetsiifilisemalt New Yorki turul.
Tõenäoliselt on samad protsessid toimumas kõikjal globaalsetes keskustes - Londonis, Pariisis, Frankfurtis, Tokyos jne.
Curbed: New Glut City The city’s mega-office landlords are panicking, pivoting, and shedding what’s worthless. One opens his books:
Tõenäoliselt on samad protsessid toimumas kõikjal globaalsetes keskustes - Londonis, Pariisis, Frankfurtis, Tokyos jne.
Curbed: New Glut City The city’s mega-office landlords are panicking, pivoting, and shedding what’s worthless. One opens his books:
For an office landlord, abandoning a building can be the best of bad options. Commercial mortgages on offices are usually structured as “nonrecourse” loans, which means that only the building is forfeited in a default. The bank may end up the biggest loser, taking over a property that is worth much less than its mortgage. It is becoming increasingly common to see office landlords — even the ones with billions in assets — walk away. Blackstone did it last year with an empty office building on Broadway in midtown. Brookfield gave up two entire portfolios of buildings in Washington and Los Angeles.
Owners who purchased four or six or eight years ago will soon face such choices, needing to refinance their buildings with much more expensive loans. Rechler explained the math in a hypothetical scenario. Let’s say you bought a million-square-foot office for $1 billion in 2015. You took on $600 million in debt at a low fixed rate, and now your loan term is up and you have to refinance. The present value of your building is in the eye of your lender. In 2023, it does an appraisal and decides it is now worth only $700 million. But commercial mortgages are usually interest-only loans, so you still owe that $600 million you borrowed. The decline in value comes out of your equity. You’ve just lost $300 million. And because your bank needs to maintain its loan-to-value ratio, when you refinance, you will get a smaller loan, at a higher rate, and you will have to sink more money into the building to shore up your equity if you decide to keep it.
Now, let’s take a non-hypothetical scenario: an RXR-owned office building at 61 Broadway. When Rechler ran his Project Kodak exercise, it looked like an obvious candidate to cut loose. An early-20th-century building way down in the Financial District, it was filled before the pandemic with law and architecture firms, tech companies, and a now-bankrupt co-working start-up. “We ran the numbers: Where do we think rents would need to be to make this work?” Rechler said. He went to his leasing agents, who assured him there were “five or six deals” to be done with tenants in the required range. Rechler told them to lower the asking rent by 10 percent and come back if they signed one lease.
“They went out, and none of those deals bit,” Rechler said. “So you say to yourself, ‘I think the market has told us this is a film building.’”
For Rechler, choosing default made strategic sense. He said he had already recovered his original investment in 61 Broadway by selling a 49 percent stake in the building to a Chinese bank in 2016. Refinancing would have meant putting in additional money to recapitalize and renovate it. Rechler said he pitched the lender, a syndicate led by Aareal Bank, on the idea of converting the building for residential use. In order to make the numbers work, though, the bank would have had to be willing to take a loss, writing down the value of the loan. “It has to be a lot cheaper,” Rechler said. “But no one wants to hear that.”
So Rechler told the lender that he intended to give 61 Broadway back. This is where the real-estate industry’s distress could start to spread to the financial system. An estimated $1.5 trillion in commercial-real-estate debt is scheduled to mature between now and 2025. Banks have taken note, making it much harder to persuade bankers to offer new loans, even on healthy buildings.
“Right now, it’s doomsday,” says the real-estate investor who sized up Worldwide Plaza. “There’s no lenders; there’s little tenant demand.” He says he thinks the market will still muddle through. Banks don’t want to end up owning a distressed property, so both parties are incentivized to string loans along in the hope of a market rebound, a strategy known in the industry as “extend and pretend.” They cannot keep up the charade in every case, though, which means that a lot of previously profitable buildings will likely end up being disposed of in distress sales.
How will all of that financial misery make itself felt in the city? The last time anything comparable to this happened, in the early 1990s, many developers went bust, speculatively built glass towers stood vacant for years, and the assessed values of office buildings citywide fell by 13 percent, according to the city comptroller’s office. There was a glut of supply, created in that case by lax lending standards and overbuilding, and high interest rates, which made it difficult for property owners to refinance. The ensuing period of budget shortfalls, service cuts, and unrest contributed to the election of Mayor Rudy Giuliani.
The early 1990s downturn lasted around five years, after which office property values increased for the next two decades, even through the dot-com crash, 9/11, and the Great Recession. Then came the pandemic. Although the city has recovered nearly all the jobs it lost in 2020, the office-vacancy rate has continued to move in the opposite direction. “This time,” says Mary Ann Tighe, a veteran commercial broker who is chief executive of the New York region for the firm CBRE, “I think we are looking at a fundamental reordering of, certainly, Manhattan.” She says every tenant she works with is asking whether remote work can allow for compressed footprints. Steven Roth, the chairman of the publicly traded company Vornado, recently told his investors that Fridays are “dead forever” and “Monday is touch and go.” Vornado’s stock has lost almost 75 percent of its value since the pandemic.
Last year, a team of academics from Columbia University and NYU published a paper with the eye-catching title “Work From Home and the Office Real Estate Apocalypse.” In it, they estimated that New York office buildings had lost 39 percent of their long-term value. A couple of months ago, they revised their projections based on newer data and came up with an even steeper decline — 44 percent on the average path.
“If anything, I feel like as time has progressed, this has started to look more and more right,” said one of the paper’s co-authors, Columbia finance professor Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, when I went to see him in June. The Belgian academic’s own office, in one of the new buildings at Columbia’s campus extension in Harlem, is pleasant and private and has a view of the Hudson River. A large whiteboard was filled with stochastic equations: the predictive formulas that have rattled the real-estate industry. After the first paper was published, the professor said, one of the city’s large office landlords summoned him for a grim briefing. “I knew we were on to something here,” Van Nieuwerburgh said, “because the folks who breathe this day in and day out for a living, they are scared.”
Bonava B on üleval +20%, Bonava A on üleval +10%.
Ettevõte teatas, et sai uuele ostjalemüüa maha parseldada oma projekti Venemaal, saab selle eest EUR50m:
Bonava takes new step towards divestment of St. Petersburg operations
2022 Q4 kandis vastava vara juba maha, nüüd saab ikkagi müüdud.
Rootsi majanduse olukorda see ei muuda, pankrottide arv on kõrge ja pankrotilaine on jätkuv. Septembris oli pankrottide arv 20 aasta kõrgeimal tasemel ja pankrotid kasvavad 14 kuud jutti. Pankrotilaine algas 2022 Augustis.
Ettevõte teatas, et sai uuele ostjale
Bonava takes new step towards divestment of St. Petersburg operations
Bonava has signed an agreement for the divestment of its St. Petersburg operations with the Armenian company Star Development LLC. The transaction amounts to approximately EUR 50 M and Bonava has received the payment. The buyer has received acquisition permit from the special committee established to oversee business transfers. Closing of the divestment is subject to the approval of the Russian competition authority, which is expected in the fourth quarter of 2023.
On 31 May 2023, Bonava announced that it had reached an agreement with RBI Group to divest its St. Petersburg operations. Since RBI Group did not receive acquisition permit from the special committee established to oversee business transfers within the agreed timeframe, the contract has now been terminated.
Bonava can today announce that it has signed an agreement for the divestment of its St. Petersburg operations with Star Development LLC. The buyer has received acquisition permit from the special committee established to oversee business transfers, and the transaction is subject to the approval of the Russian competition authority, which is expected in the fourth quarter of 2023.
Bonava has received the transaction amount of EUR 50 M from the counterparty’s Swiss bank to Bonava’s account in Stockholm. On closure of the divestment, this transaction will generate positive earnings of approximately SEK 550M, excluding reclassification of currency translation reserve, which Bonava will recognise as “Net profit for the period from discontinued operations” in the fourth quarter of 2023.
Bonava announced on 3 March 2022 that its operations in St. Petersburg would be discontinued and since then, the company has worked intensively to realise this in a responsible manner. The St. Petersburg operations have been reported as assets held for sale since the third quarter of 2022. The net assets of the operations were written down to zero in the fourth quarter of 2022.
2022 Q4 kandis vastava vara juba maha, nüüd saab ikkagi müüdud.
Rootsi majanduse olukorda see ei muuda, pankrottide arv on kõrge ja pankrotilaine on jätkuv. Septembris oli pankrottide arv 20 aasta kõrgeimal tasemel ja pankrotid kasvavad 14 kuud jutti. Pankrotilaine algas 2022 Augustis.
Taustaks ja ülevaateks aktuaalseid probleeme Ameerika kinnisvaraturul.
New York Post/Fox Business: US housing market is a ‘slow-moving train wreck’, ‘$700B could default,’ real estate expert says
Hiljemalt 2024 keskel hakkavad aeguma paljud varem antud laenud kinnisvarasektoris. Covid-ist, inflatsioonist, Ukraina sõjast jne. on nii palju aega möödas, et 3 või 5 või 7 aastased laenud hakkavad aeguma ja nõuavad ülerullimist või refinantseerimist pankade poolt. Intressid aga on jätkuvalt kõrged. Ja vakants väga suur.
Kui vähegi peaks hakkama defaultid kerima, siis kogu kinnisvarasektor, kõikvõimalikud REIT-id ja kindlasti nii regionaal-, aga ka muud pangad, peaks nende pankrottidega löögi saama. Aasta teine pool on Ameerika turgudele väljavaade oluliselt kehvem, kui aasta esimene pool, kui nii peaks minema. Praegu on veel erinevad AI-jm. eufooriad ja aitavad hinda üleval hoida, aga kui kõikvõimalikud suured defaultid hakkavad turule ilmuma, siis eufooria fooni hoida on raske.
Samal ajal Hiinas.
Bloomberg: BlackRock to Sell Shanghai Office Towers at 30% Discount, Sources Say
New York Post/Fox Business: US housing market is a ‘slow-moving train wreck’, ‘$700B could default,’ real estate expert says
“It’s a slow-moving train wreck,” The Bear Traps Report founder Larry McDonald said on “Mornings with Maria” Tuesday. “This is why the Fed is the beast in the market, it has the Fed by a stranglehold because it’s close to $2 trillion of maturities in the commercial real estate space. And then, if you look at high-yield leverage loans and investment grade bonds in the U.S. corporate market, it’s another $1.9 trillion. So the Fed is going to be forced this year to cut rates dramatically.”
“These buildings cannot service the debt,” Peebles Corporation founder and CEO Don Peebles added on the panel. “They’re worth a fraction of what the original values were when these loans were made. And you’re going to see massive defaults because there’s no solution in many of these instances.”
Their comments are strikingly similar to Cantor Fitzgerald CEO Howard Lutnick’s warning last week that a “generational” shift was on the horizon, painting a “very ugly” picture for America’s real estate market in 2024.
“I think $700 billion could default… The lenders are going to have to do things with them. They’re going to be selling. It’s going to be a generational change in real estate coming, end of 2024 and all of 2025. We will be talking about real estate being just a massive change, $700 billion to $1 trillion in defaults coming,” Lutnick stressed to Maria Bartiromo at the World Economic Forum in Davos.
Hiljemalt 2024 keskel hakkavad aeguma paljud varem antud laenud kinnisvarasektoris. Covid-ist, inflatsioonist, Ukraina sõjast jne. on nii palju aega möödas, et 3 või 5 või 7 aastased laenud hakkavad aeguma ja nõuavad ülerullimist või refinantseerimist pankade poolt. Intressid aga on jätkuvalt kõrged. Ja vakants väga suur.
Kui vähegi peaks hakkama defaultid kerima, siis kogu kinnisvarasektor, kõikvõimalikud REIT-id ja kindlasti nii regionaal-, aga ka muud pangad, peaks nende pankrottidega löögi saama. Aasta teine pool on Ameerika turgudele väljavaade oluliselt kehvem, kui aasta esimene pool, kui nii peaks minema. Praegu on veel erinevad AI-jm. eufooriad ja aitavad hinda üleval hoida, aga kui kõikvõimalikud suured defaultid hakkavad turule ilmuma, siis eufooria fooni hoida on raske.
Samal ajal Hiinas.
Bloomberg: BlackRock to Sell Shanghai Office Towers at 30% Discount, Sources Say
Investment giant’s asking price is below purchase value
Shanghai office rents have dropped close to a decade low
BlackRock Inc. is seeking to sell an office complex in Shanghai at about a 30% discount to its purchase price, people with knowledge of the matter said, reflecting the sluggish commercial property market in China’s biggest city.
The New York-based asset manager is marketing the property in northwestern Shanghai at a reduced rate to speed up the sale, according to the people, who asked not to be identified because the information is private.
Tänud jagamast. Hetkel hoian ka USA REITidel ja Saksamaa kinnisvarafirmadel silma peal.
CNBC 24.01.2022: German regulator urges banks to set aside bumper profits for bad news on the horizon
CNN 08.02.2024: German bank braces for wave of bad loans in ‘greatest real estate crisis since the financial crisis’
pbb 07.02.2024: pbb fulfils 2023 earnings guidance
pbb 08.02.2024: Liquidity at pbb:
Bloomberg 09.02.2024: Risk of Bank Defaults Spreading to Europe, Man Group Fund Manager Says
The head of the German regulator (the Federal Financial Supervisory Authority which is better known as BaFin) told CNBC Tuesday that while the shock from rate increases has been “digested in the banking books,” there could be further troubles ahead.
“The difficulties that come from this rate environment for the clients of the banking sector — whether that’s in the real estate sector or in the real economy — we haven’t seen that flow through yet,” he told CNBC’s Annette Weisbach, adding that it “won’t be easy” to repeat the profitability expected in 2023 and 2024 as rates remain historically high.
“So firms have to be very wary about provisioning requirements about not only letting the shareholders profit from this good year that they’ve had, but put as much aside to deal with the costs that are coming because they will come.”
...
The euro zone economy is widely expected to be in recession and Germany in particular is projected to face a prolonged slump, having contracted by 0.3% year-on-year in 2023, as high inflation and interest rates bit into growth.
However, many banks have yet to meaningfully increase their loan loss provisions. Branson said the market should expect them to start this year, and some may have already begun setting aside more money for bad loans in the final quarter of 2023.
“We’ve seen things happen in the commercial real estate market, which we’ve maybe predicted for a long time but now are crystallizing, so as I said 2024 and the years thereafter, they’re not going to be as easy as 2023,” Branson said.
He added that lenders should “keep the powder dry for the more difficult times,” including investing in operational security and stability, such as protection against cyberattacks.
Company insolvencies have yet to meaningfully pick up in the way that would be expected during a rapid incline in interest rates. However, Branson noted that the figures have thus far been “artificially low” due to a prolonged prior period of extremely low interest rates and the massive fiscal stimulus from governments to tackle the Covid-19 pandemic and energy crisis in recent years.
“So I think it’s almost pre-programmed that insolvencies will begin to rise again and that’s in a way normal for banks that they’ll also have have to deal with some credit losses in their books,” he said.
“That’s why we’re a bit skeptical the profitability will continue to rise after such a good 2023, and that’s why the banks have to look carefully now about what they need to provision.”
CNN 08.02.2024: German bank braces for wave of bad loans in ‘greatest real estate crisis since the financial crisis’
Shares of PBB, the second German bank to warn of mounting losses on commercial real estate in two weeks, have slumped 17% since Friday. The stock has tumbled more than 25% so far this year and 40% in the past six months.
Germany’s biggest lender Deutsche Bank said last week that it had allocated €123 million ($133 million) during the fourth quarter of last year to absorb potential defaults on its US commercial real estate loans. That’s more than quadruple the amount it set aside during the same three-month period in 2022.
Banks as far apart as New York, Tokyo and Zurich have also reported mounting losses on lending to the troubled commercial property sector in recent days.
pbb 07.02.2024: pbb fulfils 2023 earnings guidance
Deutsche Pfandbriefbank AG (pbb), a leading European specialist bank for commercial real estate finance, generated a pre-tax profit of €90 million according to preliminary annual results for the financial year 2023 (IFRS, consolidated, unaudited) and is thus in line with its last earnings forecast communicated in November 2023.
In light of the persistent weakness of the real estate markets, pbb further increased its risk provisioning in the fourth quarter 2023, including a management overlay. The risk provisioning result for the entire year 2023 amounts to expected -€210 million to -€215 million. Despite these expenses, pbb remains profitable thanks to its financial strength – even in the greatest real estate crisis since the financial crisis.
At the end of 2023, pbb’s CET1 ratio continued to stay above the bank’s ambition level of 14% and well above the regulatory requirements. As of 31 December 2023, its liquidity coverage ratio (LCR) was at 212%, 112 percentage points above the regulatory requirement of 100%. pbb will present further details and figures on 7 March 2024 as planned.
pbb 08.02.2024: Liquidity at pbb:
As of 31 December 2023, pbb's liquidity coverage ratio (LCR) was 212%, 112 percentage points above the 100% required by regulatory law. The ratio has risen since then. As planned, pbb will present details and further figures on 7 March 2024.
Its liquidity cushion enables pbb to operate for more than six months without new capital market funding.
pbb has sufficient long-term unsecured funding and is not planning a senior unsecured issue for the current year. The long-term unsecured funding includes around € 7 billion in retail deposits, of which more than € 6 billion are fixed-term deposits with an average maturity of more than three years.
The secured refinancing requirements on the capital market are largely covered for 2024: since summer 2023 alone, the Bank has issued six Pfandbrief benchmarks (three in euros, one each in GBP, USD and SEK).
Bloomberg 09.02.2024: Risk of Bank Defaults Spreading to Europe, Man Group Fund Manager Says
Potential for casualties on both sides of Atlantic: Golan
He sees value in other banks but ‘need to be really selective’
The banking-sector jitters that are rocking the likes of New York Community Bancorp will not be confined to the US, with the potential for defaults spreading to Europe, according to a top-performing fund manager.
“There are portions of the market that we think are in very deep trouble,” said Jonathan Golan, a portfolio manager at Man Group Plc in London, whose investment-grade bond fund beat 99% of peers last year in data compiled by Bloomberg. “You’ve got more banks that are coming under scrutiny, more banks falling casualty, and potentially some banks defaulting on both sides of the Atlantic.”
Reuters: Swedish property giants write down billions as prices crash
Two of Sweden's largest property companies on Tuesday announced multibillion-crown writedowns in their 2023 results, as they grappled with a European property rout that both voiced hope could soon be over.
For years, property in Europe and particularly Germany and Sweden boomed as interest rates fell, turbocharging demand. A sharp rise in rates has now pricked this bubble.
SBB, Sweden's largest commercial landlord, wrote down the value of its property by more than 13 billion Swedish crowns ($1.3 billion), slashing its portfolio - including through sales - to 73 billion crowns from 135 billion.
It posted a 2023 loss of more than 22 billion crowns.
Heimstaden, a property investor with swathes of homes from Stockholm to Berlin, wrote down the value of its investment properties by 31 billion crowns, plunging it to a pre-tax loss of 29 billion crowns.
Heimstaden's (HEIMpref.ST), opens new tab preferential shares dropped more than 30% after Fitch cut its credit rating deeper into so-called "junk" territory and the company said it would defer hybrid bond interest payments.
Õnneks Eestis pole selline mulli olnud ning siia ei pea oota mingi särnane hinnalangust - kõik kinnisvara eksperdid julgelt kinnitavad.