Kanada pensionifond müüb maha kontorihoone New Yorgis hinnaga $1 USD. Hind on odav, kuna uus ostja on sunnitud üle võtma ka kinnisvaraga seotud laenud.
Data from CoStar highlight the current state of the commercial real estate market. In the fourth quarter of 2023, the strength of property fundamentals—excess net demand, occupancy rates, and rental growth rates—has generally continued to wane among the four traditional property sectors. This is expected to place further pressure on property operational gains in 2024.
The chart above shows rolling four-quarter excess net demand as a percentage of existing stock by property type from the fourth quarter of 2008 to the fourth quarter of 2023; it also displays U.S. recessions. In the last quarter of 2023, retail was the only property type that maintained a positive excess net demand value. Retail demand has continued to exceed the sector’s limited supply for 10 straight quarters. Excess net demand remained negative for the industrial, apartment, and office property types. Net absorption has fallen short of net deliveries for industrial, apartment, and office for four, seven, and 18 consecutive quarters, respectively. These demand shortfalls have diminished the strength of each sector’s property fundamentals.
The tales behind the apartment, industrial, and office supply-demand imbalances are nuanced. Recent apartment and industrial supply surges were driven by strong demand and high rents over the past several years. As completions accelerated in the last year, apartment net absorption maintained consistent levels with its recent past, but industrial demand dropped off precipitously. Office demand challenges are well known, but the sector has also suffered from supply issues. Years of negative net absorption have not curtailed office net deliveries.
The chart above depicts occupancy rates for the four traditional property types, as well as U.S. recessionary periods from the fourth quarter of 2008 to the fourth quarter of 2023. While the retail occupancy rate continued its ascent to reach an all-time high, industrial, apartment, and office occupancy rates maintained their declines. Industrial occupancy has declined for six consecutive quarters, but it remained at a level consistent with those prior to the pandemic. The apartment occupancy rate has fallen to a level not seen since 2010. Office occupancy has continued the descent that it started in 2019. As of the fourth quarter of 2023, it stood at 86.5%—its lowest level since 2000.
The chart above presents year-over-year rent growth rates by property type, as well as periods of U.S. recession from the fourth quarter of 2008 to the fourth quarter of 2023. After reaching double digits in 2022, the industrial rent growth rate dropped to 6.6% at year-end 2023. Retail followed a similar but more modest downward trend, declining from a peak of 4.4% in the third quarter of 2022 to 3.4% in the fourth quarter of 2023. Both industrial and retail rates remained above their respective pre-pandemic levels. The apartment rent growth rate reached an historical high of 11.3% at the beginning of 2022. It has since plunged to near zero. As of the fourth quarter of 2023, it was 0.7%, the lowest level of growth among the four property types. Despite falling occupancy rates, office maintained a positive rental gain in the last quarter of 2023. It posted year-over-year rent growth of 0.8%.
The commercial real estate market has not been immune from economic and financial market challenges. Today’s property market is generally marked by supply-demand imbalances, declining occupancy rates, and moderating rental growth rates. These conditions will likely place further pressures on property operational performance gains in 2024.
The pool of distressed U.S. commercial properties grew to USD 85.8 billion by the end of 2023, led by distressed office assets, as weaker prices and higher lending rates challenged the market. The balance of distress, which encompasses financially troubled assets and assets taken back by lenders, increased throughout the year. Still, the pace of additional trouble slowed in the fourth quarter, when new distress outpaced workouts by USD 4.2 billion, down from USD 9.0 billion in the third quarter.
Pain in the property types At the end of 2023, offices constituted 41% of the value of cumulative distress. However, in terms of the new trouble added in the fourth quarter alone, the office market’s share fell to 39% from more than 80% in the second and third quarters of the year. Distress in the retail market, on the other hand, swelled. Resolutions to a distressed situation had exceeded new distress for retail earlier in the year, but in the fourth quarter this trend was reversed.
Potential distress, which may precede full-blown financial trouble, totaled USD 234.6 billion at year-end. The multifamily market constituted the largest pool of potentially distressed assets, with a value of USD 67.3 billion, ahead of office with USD 54.7 billion.
Higher interest rates and the resultant higher cost of capital meant that prospective buyers of real estate had to rapidly reassess the price at which they were willing to commit to the market. However, property owners tend to be far slower to revalue their assets, and this can lead to a standoff, with buyers and sellers unable to meet on pricing. This stalemate means market liquidity starts to drain away as fewer assets trade, and it does not return until either buyers or sellers start to shift their reserve prices, or sellers are forced to bring assets to market, for example, through a distress process.
In a slow-moving, structurally illiquid market like real estate, this process of repricing and recalibration can take a long time. In 2022, global commercial-property deal volume fell by 17% to USD 1.18 trillion and by the end of last year it had fallen again, by 48%, to USD 615 billion, marking the lowest level of deals since 2012.
Global deal activity has suffered
Markets that that boomed in the immediate aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic have experienced the sharpest slowdown. For example, German deal volume has fallen by 75% from its post-pandemic peak, Swedish deal activity by 74% and U.S. volume by 64%.
The illiquidity in global capital markets can also be quantified through the MSCI Price Expectations Gap, which shows how much reserve prices would have to move for market liquidity to return to the long-run average. This gap stands at -14% for U.S. offices, -31% for German offices and -32% for Australian retail, for example. The outturn is even worse at a city level in some cases, with offices in the German A Cities at -41% and those in the City of London at -37%.
Elukondlik Prime-KV elab eraldi elu, väga rikkad toimetavad omasoodu. Hinnamuutused 2023 vs 2022 vasakul.
Prices in the world’s “prime” markets — defined as the top 5% most expensive properties in each market — rose most in the developing world in 2023, particularly in Manila and the Bahamas as well as the boom emirate of Dubai.
The number of ultra-high-net-worth individuals (individuals or families with a net worth exceeding $30 million) rose globally by 4.2% in 2023, from 601,300 to 626,619. Emerging economies helped to make up the list, with Turkey having a 9.7% rise, India up 6.1% and South Korea 5.6%. The US had 7.9% rise, from 208,560 to 225,077.
Nagu kasutaja Momentum varem viitas siis järgmise 18 kuu jooksul tuleb USAs refinantseerida ca 1,5 triljoni eest ärikinnisvara laene. Kui olemasolevad laenud sõlmiti intressitasemega 3-4 protsendi kandis siis uute laenude hinnatase saaks olema hetkeseisuga pigem 8-10 protsendi kandis. Allikas Bloomberg: Risks Facing Commercial Real Estate
Seega laenukuludes on oodata USAs peale refinantseerimist järsku kallinemist ja mõned ettevõtted võivad sattuda refinantseerimisel raskustesse sest laenumakse ületaks juba rahavoogusid. Paljud kontoripinda rentivad ettevõtted paluvad tõenäoliselt rendilepingu uuendamise käigus mahte vähendada (hübriid- ja kaugtöö mõjud) mis põhjustab täiendavat stressi kontorihoonete omanikele ja pankadele. Kõrge võlakoormusega ettevõtete võlakirjad ja aktsiad võivad siit veel kenasti pihta saada. Pankade aktsiaid ei tahaks selles olukorras üldse omada.
Näiteks kriisi epitsentris San Fransiscos seisab ca 35 protsenti kontoripinnast tühjalt. Ühe näite puhul õnnestus osta kontorihoone 70 protsenti odavamalt kui viis aastat tagasi. USA suurlinnad on kaotanud väljarände tõttu miljoneid inimesi. Näiteks uksekaartide statistika põhjal teame, et New Yorgi pilvelõhkujates viibib kontoris ainult 50 protsenti töötajatest. Läheb väga kaua aega mööda enne kui osad kontorihooned jõutakse ümber ehitada kortermajadeks ja vahepeal maha jäetud ärikvartalid muutuvad taas atraktiivseks linnakeskkonnaks.
See kõik jõuab siia Eestisse hilinemisega. Tavaliselt mitu kvartalit hiljem. Kogu inimkonna ajaloo jooksul oli meie elukoht aheldatud töökoha külge. Põldu harides elasime põllu ääres, tehases või kontoris töötades elasime mõistlikus kauguses. Enam mitte. Tohutu muutus millega majandus peab hakkama lähikümnenditel kohanema.
Šaakalid istuvad ja ootavad. Investors have been stockpiling funds since 2020. They have been frustrated because most property owners haven’t agreed to sell at big-enough markdowns, because lenders have been willing to offer loan modifications. Global real-estate funds operated by private-equity firms were sitting on $544 billion in cash as of Q2/23 - a record level and up from $457 billion at the end of 2022, according to Preqin. The largest increase was in so-called opportunistic funds, which often search for distressed assets. Now, things are starting to change. Lenders are stepping up the pressure on owners of office buildings, and also getting tougher on hotel- and apartment-building owners who fell behind on construction schedules. Investors with cash on hand have begun to snap up these properties or provide rescue capital to struggling owners in exchange for preferred returns. Recent activity includes deals by Ares Management and NY landlord RXR, venture is buying discounted interests in 3 million square feet of office space and has made offers on more than $500 million of senior debt. “We’re in a period of time where it’s great to have dry powder,” said Rich Banjo of Artemis Real Estate Partners, which has been buying distressed properties through a $2.2 billion fund it closed last year. Harbor Group has spent $600+ millions over the past year on 7 apartment-building developments which weren’t leasing up as quickly as expected. As of the end of 2023, commercial-property distress, including financially troubled assets and those taken over by lenders, totaled $85.8 billion, according to MSCI Real Assets. That is up from $56.9 billion at the end of 2022 and the highest level since the third quarter of 2013, MSCI said. Analysts expect that distress will keep rising. More than $2.2 trillion in commercial mortgages are scheduled to mature by the end of 2027, according to data firm Trepp. “At some point, that avalanche is going to hit,” said Lonnie Hendry, Trepp’s chief product officer.
Kaubanduspindade sektoris samas suht päikseline.
Vacancies at U.S. shopping centers fell to 5.3% in Q4/23, the lowest level since Cushman & Wakefield began tracking it in 2007. Average asking rents rose to $23.70 a sq ft and are now nearly 17% above 2019 levels. “We’re seeing our highest occupancy in the 17 years that I’ve been at Time Equities, and massive, massive rent growth” said Ami Ziff, MD for national retail at the private real-estate investment company, which owns retail space in 29 states, from open-air shopping centers to enclosed malls. Kite Realty Group Trust (NYSE: KRG), which owns open-air shopping centers, saw 2023 revenue from rent increase 44% yoy. -WSJ
Intresside tõstmine võib põhjustada lähiaastatel palju laiemaid probleeme kui ärikinnisvara. Kõikvõimalikud ärimudelid satuvad löögi alla sest kapital~0 aeg on möödas.
The next place we’re likely to see this effect isn’t in banks at all, but in the $20 trillion world of private investments. Firms are clinging to valuations — “marks,” in Wall Street lingo — that an Excel model spit out six years ago after a 25-year-old analyst entered something approximating zero where the spreadsheet asked for cost of capital.
Those assumptions were wrong the minute that the Federal Reserve started raising interest rates, and the industry hasn’t been quick to redo its math. This ability to tune out short-term noise is touted as a feature, not a bug, of private investing, because it allows managers to focus on long-term outcomes without being forced to sell.
But a sustained downturn would test those blinders. Already, private-equity firms have gotten reluctant to sell assets at lower prices, which would force them to revalue their investments. Maybe they can hold on a few more years, until rates fall and prices rebound, but many of their companies are already having trouble paying their bills.
"martk" Intresside tõstmine võib põhjustada lähiaastatel palju laiemaid probleeme kui ärikinnisvara. Kõikvõimalikud ärimudelid satuvad löögi alla sest kapital~0 aeg on möödas.
The next place we’re likely to see this effect isn’t in banks at all, but in the $20 trillion world of private investments. Firms are clinging to valuations — “marks,” in Wall Street lingo — that an Excel model spit out six years ago after a 25-year-old analyst entered something approximating zero where the spreadsheet asked for cost of capital.
Those assumptions were wrong the minute that the Federal Reserve started raising interest rates, and the industry hasn’t been quick to redo its math. This ability to tune out short-term noise is touted as a feature, not a bug, of private investing, because it allows managers to focus on long-term outcomes without being forced to sell.
But a sustained downturn would test those blinders. Already, private-equity firms have gotten reluctant to sell assets at lower prices, which would force them to revalue their investments. Maybe they can hold on a few more years, until rates fall and prices rebound, but many of their companies are already having trouble paying their bills.
"martk" Intresside tõstmine võib põhjustada lähiaastatel palju laiemaid probleeme kui ärikinnisvara. Kõikvõimalikud ärimudelid satuvad löögi alla sest kapital~0 aeg on möödas.
Lähiaastatel intressid juba langevad ju?
Nagu teame siis intressipoliitika rakendamisel on umbes 12-kuuline lõtk sees. Seega pole käesoleva intressitõusu tsükli kõik mõjud majandusele veel kohale jõudnud. Viimane FEDi intressitõus oli 2023. aasta juulis. Alles novembris oli USA turu ootus, et FED hakkab intresse langetama juba 2024. aasta märtsis ja ennustati, et kokku vähendatakse tänavu intresse 6-7 korral kokku 1,5-1,75 protsendipunkti võrra. Tänaseks on see muutunud kättesaamatuks unistuseks. Uus ootus on, et intresse langetakse tänavu 3-4 korda ehk 0,75-1.0 protsenti. Pole sugugi kindel, et tänavu üldse intresside langetamiseni jõutakse. Kui inflatsioon jääb püsima ebamugavale tasemele siis pole FED-il põhjust ka intresse langetada. Seega intressid jäävad kõrgemale ja kauemaks. Isegi kui tänavu jõutakse intresse langetama hakata siis mõjud ei jõua kohale otsekohe.
Viimase 10 aasta jooksul muutusid majandusagendid mugavaks ja hakkasid eeldama, et madalate intresside ajastu kestab igavesti. Paljud ettevõtted peavad lähiaastatel oma laene refinantseerima kuid tõenäoliselt siis juba kaks korda kõrgema intressitaseme pealt. Pangad saavad lähiaastatel kahjumitega kõvasti pihta - krediiditsükkel, väga järsk intressitõus ja ühiskonna kohanematus teevad oma töö - ja seetõttu hakkavad laenude välja andmist piirama.
Viimased 40 aastat kestnud supertsükkel mis algas 1982. aastal intressitasemega 16-20 protsenti ja lõppes nullintressidega, on läbi saanud. Edaspidi hakkavad intressid vaikselt kõrgemale ronima koos episoodiliste intresside vähendamise operatsioonidega.
Ma kahtlustan, et FED käitub ka seekord samamoodi nagu nad minevikus on käitunud. Väga järsule intressitõusu tsüklile järgneb väga järsk ja sügav intresside langetamise tsükkel sest toimub börsikrahh, turud kukuvad ja FED satub paanikasse. Kui praegu ennustatakse aasta lõpuks intressitaset 4.6% siis väga ei imestaks kui intressid langeksid lausa 2.0% piirkonda.
USAs muutus (läbi kohtulahingute, loomulikult) KV vahendamine just päris palju, keegi veel ei tea mis täpselt saama hakkab. 2 mln maaklerit seal ja harjutud 6% vahendustasuga mis jaguneb ostjat ja müüjat esindava maakleri vahel. Nüüd? Näis, kõiksugu variandid laual, u. säästumaaklerid ja kehvemad peavad üldse uue tgevuse leidma. -CNN
