If This Doesn't Work, What's Next?
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
10/8/2008 8:23 AM EDT
Praise the Lord and pass the ammunition.
-- American proverb
After another night of misery for stock markets around the world, we have coordinated interest rate cuts boosting us this morning. The Fed cut the federal funds rate by 50 basis points to 1.5% and was joined by similar action in Europe and Japan.
The market is relieved to see this and reversed up sharply on the news, but you have to worry now that central banks are running out of ammunition. If this doesn't help to stop the bleeding in this market, you have to wonder what the next move might be.
What has been really frightening about this whole meltdown is that unprecedented rescue attempts by government have done nothing to stop the selling. Typically the market is highly sensitive to attempts by the feds to bolster the market. We all know the old saying, "Don't fight the Fed," but it certainly has not been the case this year.
The big danger we face now is painfully obvious. What if the markets don't find support? What happens if this news is sold and the indices go negative once again? Will failure of coordinated worldwide interest rate cuts to rally the troops cause even more despair?
The good news is that the market is remarkably oversold. We are at levels never seen before as panic takes hold, but we clearly are dealing with a crisis like none that we have ever experienced, and if you are relying on investors acting in a conventional manner, you will disappointed.
We'll see what happens after trading starts. Sellers will hit this bounce, and if they are anxious enough to escape this market that things turn red, we'll really be in trouble. On the other hand, if we can at least stabilize then maybe we can build on that in the days to come.
What we really need is a rally that isn't prompted by some news event. We need investors to want to buy simply because they feel the market has fallen too far and represents a good opportunity. Government-manufactured excitement is going to be very suspect, especially when it comes as an obvious response to panic.
Don't go rushing to buy this morning. The market still has a tremendous amount of work to do in order to prove that we really are near a major low.
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Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: ZZ +12.3% (light volume), LDK +11.5%, YUM +4.1%... Select European financial names rebounding following coordinated rate cut: RBS +35.6%, LYG +22.4%, UBS +8.2%, BCS +3.6%... Select metals/mining names showing strength with higher spot prices: GOLD +20.7% (upgraded to Buy at Citigroup), HMY +12.9%, GFI +11.2%, DROOY +9.3%, LMC +8.9%, AAUK +6.3%, SLV +4.5%, GLD +3.8%... Select solar names showing strength following LDK results: SOL +12.2%, JASO +9.5%, YGE +8.5%, STP +3.8%, CSIQ +3.3%, FSLR +1.4%... Other news: YRCW +12.9% (expects to have positive free cash flow in both Q3 and Q4 with significant debt reduction for the year), FDRY +7.9% (Brocade announces $1.1 billion term loan funding for acquisition of Foundry Networks), ASML +7.0% (still checking), LEN +3.4% (cuts dividend by 75% to $0.04), BP +2.2% (still checking), HSY +1.3% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney)... Analyst comments: CELG +2.0% (upgraded to Outperform at Cowen).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance/same store sales: JCP -9.6%, NTGR -8.7%, TISI -8.5%, COST -6.5%, MET -5.1%, MON -4.2%, JWN -4.1%, AA -3.1%... Select financial names showing continued weakness: BAC -18.2% (announces pricing of common stock of $22 per share), MER -15.0%, WB -7.6%, ABK -5.8%, AIG -4.3%, WFC -3.6%, MS -3.0%, C -2.7% (scales back wholesale mortgage business - WSJ; also Tata Consultancy Services to acquire Citigroup Global Services for $505 mln), GS -2.6%... Other news: TELOZ -51.7% (announces hurricane damage to properties), STEI -29.5% (Service Corp withdraws proposal for Stewart Enterprises), RIO -8.6% and ACH -8.1% (still checking for anything specific)... Analyst comments: RNWK -5.9% (downgraded to Sell at Piper), X -3.9% (downgraded to Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley), TM -3.6% (downgraded to Sell at Citigroup), T -1.9% (downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform at RBC Capital Mkts), GM -1.5% (downgraded to Hold at Citigroup),
Kõik on Osama süü.....
Ei kujuta ette, kes tahaks praegu lühiajalise shordina sisse jääda.
Huvitav algus igatahes küll seni olnud
Dow +124.65 +1.32% 9,571.76
NASDAQ +29.57 +1.69% 1,784.45
S&P +17.65 +1.77% 1,013.88
NASDAQ +29.57 +1.69% 1,784.45
S&P +17.65 +1.77% 1,013.88
Huvitav, et kes nüüd ostab? Kas FED on lisaks rahajagamise ja võlakirjade ostmise programmile ka aktsiate ostmise riikliku programmi käivitanud?
Ja selle suure ülemaailmse koordineeritud liigutuse tulemus on see, et ... TED spread tegi just uue tipu @ 4.03.
August Pending Home Sales m/m +7.4% vs -1.3% consensus, prior revised to -2.7% from -3.2%
Dept of Energy reports that crude oil inventories had a build of 8123K (consensus is a build of 2200K); gasoline inventories had a build of 7175K (consensus is a build df 1500K); distillate inventories had a draw of 489K (consensus is a draw of 900K).
Soovitan kuulata. Intervjuu Marc Faberiga.
Trichet says 'no particular signal' on whether more cuts needed
Turg kosumas päris korralikult, kas ehk liiga vara?
mul ei hakanud tööle miskipärast see Faberi intervjuu.
Ja põrge tuleb selat kus oleks kõige vähem oodanud.Päeva keskelt enne sik-sakk (nõrkade käte maha raputamist)
Turg on ikka kuradi kaval
Turg on ikka kuradi kaval
jim, kas sult eratunde võtta saab pa palju 1h maksab?
jim võiks seda siira küsimusena võtta, ülejäänud võtku või pangu kuidas tahavad
Ozbot, ma ei tea börsist mitte midagi :)
(off tilting @ pokerstars)
(off tilting @ pokerstars)
jim, ma usun sind ja saan aru mis sa ütled. mina ka ei tea börsist mitte midagi. meie vahe on see, et sina teed raha ja mina ei tee raha (börsiga) järelikult emb-kumb meist valetab :)
Ozbot, saada mail jim ättt cafe punkt jeee jeee.
jeee jeee