No vaikselt tuleb see laine, mis SP500 vähemalt 6500 punkti puutub börsiväliselt ära.
ronald mcdonald vist lõpuks iraaniga oma pilli lõhki puhunud
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oh my Lord, ei ole üldse Iraaniga seotud. Lained teevad, mida nad tegema peavad.
Mis ajas see peaks juhtuma ja kuidas sellele 2% kukkumisele panustate?
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nii et lainefunktsioonist tuli sõda iraaniga, naftahinna ralli ja esoteerilised asjad nagu usa väetiseindeksid rallimas, mitte vastupidi?
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Sinu viga on selles, et sa Iraani sõjaga kõike seostad. Loomulikult see tekitab laineid, kuid lõpptulemus jääb vääramatuks. Lõpptulemus ütleb mulle, et 6450-6550 peab pikaks minema.
Mis taseme juures tasub siis laenuraha kaasama hakata?
Laenuraha on mõistlik igal juhul puutumata jätta
Juu turud valmistuvad Araabiamaade infra hävitamisele.
The Times kirjutab, et Wall St. vaalad tunnevad kriisieelset, u. 2007 a. lõhna.
Jamie Dimon (JPM) warned last month that some lenders are doing “dumb things” and he was starting to see parallels to the era before the 2008 financial crisis.
Lloyd Blankfein, ex boss of Goldman Sachs, said this month that he saw signs the economy could be heading for a 2008-style crash and we were “due for a reckoning”. “Now everyone says, ‘Oh, the world’s not leveraged’, that’s exactly what everybody said in the mortgage crisis until you suddenly discover that there was a lot of mortgage risk in Iceland.”
Michael Hartnett, Bank of America’s chief investment strategist, said in a note this month: “Asset performance in 2026 is more ominously close to price action seen from mid ’07 to mid ’08.” He noted the market consensus that there would not be a prolonged war in Iran and that private credit issues were not systemic”.
Lending by money managers known as private credit has grown significantly since the global financial crisis as tougher regulations and capital requirements made it more challenging for traditional banks to issue riskier loans to medium-sized businesses. Private assets, including private credit, cannot be “marked to market”, or valued based on how much they could be bought or sold for in marketplace. Now, suspicions are growing that some of these assets have been over-marked, in a comparable way to how mortgage securities were overvalued in the run-up to the financial crisis.
There are also concerns over the impact of AI. Software companies have been big borrowers of private credit, as are AI data centre builders. Feb. 2026 BofA survey said investors now forecast that major AI hyperscalers will issue $285 billion in new debt this year
Alarm bells started ringing about the private credit industry around September last year, when First Brands, manufacturer of car parts which had borrowed billions of dollars in private markets, filed for bankruptcy and disclosed about $9.3 billion of debt obligations. Yet the company had received strong credit ratings. It was a similar story with Tricolor Holdings, a subprime auto lender that also filed for bankruptcy in the same month and with London firm Market Financial Solutions (MFS), which is subject to FCA investigation and claims of a fraud thought to have left £1.3 billion of its £2.6 billion loan book missing, with Wall St. & City institutions on the hook. It’s understood that its collapse was precipitated by increased scrutiny from institutional backers after private credit failures in the US last year. MFS accounts suggested it had equity against its loan book of a mere 2.5%… is there any skin in the game? Putting aside the fraud claims, that’s reckless. A lot of lenders are not doing consolidated accounts, or they have auditors from tiny firms. Part of the worry is that individuals and pension funds are invested in the private credit funds so the potential fallout from a broad rout in private credit firms could cause a broader economic crisis.
Ja neid private credit fonde lisandub järjest, kust raha väljavõtmisele värav ette on pandud (gating), lahkuvad investorid on mures tagatiste jm. pärast. Trügitakse ükse poole.
Investors in private credit funds have found more $1.5 billion of their savings trapped after 2 of the biggest players vetoed a large proportion of redemption requests.
Ares and Apollo are the latest funds to impose limits on investor cash-outs amid worries over transparency, defaults, valuations and higher interest rates.
Ares, which manages $623 billion of client assets, said it had received redemption requests in respect of 11.6% of its Ares Strategic Income Fund in the Q1. It honoured $524 million of those requests while rejecting another $692 million worth.
Apollo said on Monday that it was honouring $730 million of requests to cash out, while rejecting another $905 million worth in its principal private credit fund, Apollo Debt Solutions BDC, a $25 billion giant.
Funds run by BlackRock and Morgan Stanley are among half a dozen to have already imposed withdrawal restrictions, while Blackstone earlier in March lifted its normal redemption ceiling to accommodate a bulge in exit requests. Blue Owl Capital said in February that it was selling $1.4 billion in assets from 3 of its credit funds so it could return capital and permanently halted redemptions at one of the funds.
Apparent returns have been as much as 8-10% pa. The funds usually spice-up potential returns, as well as potential losses, by introducing leverage into the funds. Many of the funds are leveraged using traditional bank debt.
$1.3 - $3 trillion is invested in these funds, depending on definitions. It is overwhelmingly an American phenomenon, but 10% are in the UK. There are questions about how much insurers have bought into the funds, according to Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell. Redemption restrictions are seen as essential to prevent a stampede for the exit. “You don’t want all the elephants trying to get through the cat flap at the same time,” Mould said. -The Times
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Turg on sinu vahemikust läbi kukkunud, mida sa ootad?
Pidid ju pikaks minema! 
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Midagi ma ei oota vaid tegutsen. Läksin juba nädala alguses üle poole mahust pikaks ja jõudsin sellest kolmandiku maha müüa kui käisime SP6750 kandis ära. Kõik, mis jääb alla SP6400 ala, võtan kui õnnistusena, et veel ja uuesti pikaks minna.
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Mul on samasugune võime, suudan sajaprotsendiliselt punast ja musta tabada.
Tagantjärgi.
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Usu või ära usu, aga mul oligi kavas kõik pikk SP 6750-6900 vahel maha müüa, aga kuna ma tavaliselt kõike korraga ei müü, siis alustan juba varem lõppsihtmärgist.
Nädala low oli 24.03 6519, siis läksid pikaks ja müüsid, kui käisime 6750 juures??
Äkki valgustad meid, mis päeval see SP 6750 juures käis sellel nädalal?
Mul on alati olnud kahtlus, kui ma veebist loen, kui hästi kõigil läheb, et ma kauplen mingit valet SPX-i. Tundub, et mu kahtlused on saanud kinnitust. Minu SP pole üldse nii kõrgele tõusnud, ilmselt olen sattunud mingi Temu versiooni peale.
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Tavaliselt SP graafikult sa muidugi seda ei näe. Jutt on börsivälise kauplemise ajast.
aa, siis on ju hoopis teine asi
Te läksid E hommikul premarketis suurelt sisse (not a bad idea)
Ja siis kohe 30 mintsa hiljem müüsite tipus
ja nüüd 4 päeva hiljem tulete sellest rääkima?
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Ei tulnud ise rääkima, vaid Harley nõudis siin selgitusi. Ega ma nüüd täpselt 6750 pealt ka ei müünud vaid 6700 kandis. Selline kiire liikumine tähendab tavaliselt äkilist pöördumist ja otsustasin enne sihtmärki osa panuseid rahaks teha.