siis kui seda GMi shorti mainisin, oli cons. for Q 34 centi lossi, nüüdseks on see peale GMACi tulemusi ja analüütikute kommentaare kukkunud 55 cendi peale, samuti arvab JPM, et tulemused ei pruugi tulla nii halvad, teisalt downgrades Bear selle underperformi peale. GM on nii laialt jälgitav stock, et kuram seda teab kuhu stock treidib. ega muust ei oska lähtuda kui analüütikite kommentaaridest ..lihtsalt olen jäänud kinni Buckinghami $17 targetiga ja nende negatiivse seisukohaga GMi suhtes (peaks olema üks negatiivsemaid). Viimane kommentaar pärineb 6. veebruarist:
We REITERATE our UNDERPERFORM rating and $17 price target. We continue to
believe GM's North American profitability will deteriorate with the expected
meaningful production declines in GMT900 platform.
GMAC reported a net loss of $(724)M in 4Q07, largely as a result of losses at
ResCap.
As a result of weaker than expected results from GMAC, we are lowering our
4Q07 EPS estimate. Our prior estimate reflected GM's 49% stake in GMAC's
earnings at a net loss of $225M. We now believe the net loss will approximate
$350M, which brings our consolidated 4Q07 EPS estimate to $(0.89) from our
prior estimate of $(0.67).
We continue to believe GM's consolidated financial results will not yield the
benefit it has in the past from GMAC and could very well result in additionally
losses in 2008. More importantly, as GMAC becomes increasingly constrained with
funding and tightens credit, which we believe compromises GM's ability to offer
incentive programs and/or stimulate consumer demand.
INVESTMENT OPINION
We REITERATE our UNDERPERFORM rating and $17 price target. We continue to
believe GM's North American profitability will deteriorate with the expected
production declines in GMT900 platform. Additionally, we believe net pricing
for GM's full-size pickups (roughly 2/3 of GMT900 production) is vulnerable to
meaningful declines given the ongoing issues in the housing market coupled with
increased competition in the segment throughout 2008. We believe Chrysler and
Ford are going to become increasingly competitive in moving 2008 model year
full-size pickups to maintain appropriate market share and inventory levels for
the expected change-over for the redesigned 2009 Dodge Ram and F-150. Moreover,
we believe GM's full-size pickups will go from "new on the block" to
"yesterday's news". As a result, GM's management will have to increase
incentive spending in order to maintain expected market share declines.
Although GM's new products are well received by the consumer, GM's redesigned
Chevy Malibu is less profitable than full-size trucks. Lastly, ongoing issues
related to GMAC could compromise the company's ability to stimulate the
consumers through 0% APR programs and/or aggressive lease programs.
GMAC reported a net loss of $(724)M in 4Q07, largely as a result of losses at
ResCap. The earnings level for GMAC's three core business all came under
pressure year-over-year in 4Q07. The auto finance and insurance business also
posted meaningful year-over-year declines in net income. However, the year over
year comparisons are challenging because of several one-time items. We expect
the auto finance business to remain under pressure as a result of rising
delinquencies and rising borrowing costs. ResCap should continue to experience
weakness given the ongoing weakness in the housing market, in our opinion.
As a result of weaker than expected results from GMAC, we are lowering our 4Q07
EPS estimate. Our prior estimate reflected GM's 49% stake in GMAC's earnings at
a net loss of $225M. We now believe the net loss will approximate $350M, which
brings our consolidated 4Q07 EPS estimate to $(0.89) from our prior estimate of
$(0.67). Our 2008 GM EPS estimate reflects GM's 49% stake in GMAC's net income
of $225M. We believe our 2008 estimate is optimistic and we would not be
surprised to see actual earnings fall short of our expectation.
We continue to believe GM's financial results will not yield the benefit it has
in the past from GMAC and could very well result in additionally losses in
2008. More importantly, as GMAC becomes increasingly constrained with funding
and tightens credit, we believe it compromises GM's ability to offer incentive
programs and/or stimulate consumer demand. We expect GM to have a very
challenging sales month in February 2008; given the difficult year-over-year
comparison is much more challenging than in January. We expect GM's incentive
spending to be less helpful to drive demand and we expect to see material
declines in sales during the month, which should further increase inventory
levels for its full-size trucks.
Several take-a ways from the GMAC conference call that support our investment
thesis on GM:
1. U.S. auto finance delinquency rates at GMAC are up 30 bps to 40 bps
year-over-year. We believe delinquency rates could accelerate if the economic
backdrop were to weaken, which will compromise earnings for GMAC's automotive
finance business. Global delinquencies have expanded to 2.68% in 4Q07, up from
2.4% in 1Q06.
2. Management stated 16% of the company auto loans are deemed nonprime (FICO
score less the 660), which is consistent with our view that a disproportionate
number of domestic OEM customers have poor credit and lower disposable income
levels on average compared to foreign manufacturers.
3. U.S. sales proceed from off-leased vehicles in 4Q07 are down roughly $560
since 3Q07, which we believe is indicative of increased incentive spending on
full-size trucks coupled with a softer overall used vehicle sales market.
4. GMAC's management suggested it tightened credit standards during 2007 (3
times) and expects to continue to monitor and adjust its credit standards as
economic data unfolds, which we believe limits the number of potential customer
for GM vehicle an on the margins aids in eroding unit sales at GM.
5. GMAC also has a considerable amount of debt maturing in 2008, roughly $19B,
which we believe the company will fund through shrinking its balance sheet as
well as refinancing a portion of the debt at a higher costs, which both will
compromise future profits.
6. We continue to believe the company faces several challenges in its ResCap
business given that the company's nonprime held-for-sale assets stood at $2B at
the end of 4Q07 and the company's nonprime exposure was $16.9B at the end of
4Q08.
7. GMAC management stated that it believes ResCap is adequately funded through
2008 and they continue to explore strategic alternatives for its ResCap unit.
We continue to believe if a sale of ResCap were to take place it would have to
be well below the company equity book value at the end of 4Q07 of $6B.
8. GMAC management suggested it would be profitable in 2008, but we believe
given the trend in auto loan delinquencies and ongoing economic weakness could
call that forecast into question.
GM: Given our loss expectations for 2008 and 2009, we are using our point EPS
estimate for 2010 of $2.12 to arrive at our $17 target, which reflects roughly
a 10.0x P/E discounted back (10% each year for 2 years).
GM tulemustega väljas EPS 0.08 vs. loss 55 centi. Kasum tuli tänu maksudele ...firma pani pange pea kõigis valdkondades ehk kahjum suurem kui oodatud enne makse. Tegu on segase stockiga, aga teoreetiliselt vast jääb negatiivsele poolele.
tiba alatu eelturul, aga paneme poole ehk 7500 ühikut 26.81 kinni
cover all GM 26.28
CNBC -- estimates GM posted Q4 EPS of ($2.77) when the $1.6B tax benefit is taken out of the reported 8c gain
Kommentaarid CCU ja SIRI kohta täna
CCU -- TheDeal.com reports that buyers Bain Capital and Thomas H. Lee Partners may
get Department of Justice approval to acquire Clear Channel (CCU) as early as
Wednesday, February 13. The $23B buyout is awaiting approval on competition
matters. Clear Channel CEO Mark Mays believes the deal will be closed in Q1.
SIRI -- Amtech lõpetab katmise. SIRI (NEUTRAL) and XMSR (NEUTRAL): Dropping Coverage. There is little incremental value we can offer on XMSR and SIRI at this time. We do not know when a decision regarding the merger between SIRI and XMSR will be reached, nor do we have an edge on guessing what the DoJ/FCC’s decision will be. The consequences of approval or denial are also well-known. After a merger decision, we expect ultimate OEM conversion rates, cannibalistic effects of substitute services, and deal synergies (if approved) will be debated for quite some time.
CCU -- TheDeal.com reports that buyers Bain Capital and Thomas H. Lee Partners may
get Department of Justice approval to acquire Clear Channel (CCU) as early as
Wednesday, February 13. The $23B buyout is awaiting approval on competition
matters. Clear Channel CEO Mark Mays believes the deal will be closed in Q1.
SIRI -- Amtech lõpetab katmise. SIRI (NEUTRAL) and XMSR (NEUTRAL): Dropping Coverage. There is little incremental value we can offer on XMSR and SIRI at this time. We do not know when a decision regarding the merger between SIRI and XMSR will be reached, nor do we have an edge on guessing what the DoJ/FCC’s decision will be. The consequences of approval or denial are also well-known. After a merger decision, we expect ultimate OEM conversion rates, cannibalistic effects of substitute services, and deal synergies (if approved) will be debated for quite some time.
Hetkel seis siis:
Realiseeritud kasum: 3,978.36 rahaühikut ehk ~4% portfelli mahust
Realiseerimata kahjum positsioonidelt on momendil umbes 1500 rahaühikut
Portfell kokku koos positsioonide ja virtuaalrahaga alates 29.jaanuar umbes 2,5% plussis, millest üle 65% rahas.
TPX long 10K @19.41
CCU long 15K @31.29
SIRI long 5K @3.17
AMR short 5K @15.44
P.S. Ei tunne ühegi positsiooni osas mugavalt, vbla peaks losse cuttima. AMR ja TPX on kõige lambimad - üks oli langenud tugevalt ja teine tõusnud (nii ei tohi mitte kunagi teha) ...CCU`l ja SIRI`l eksisteerib vähemalt mingi gamblingu moment veel.
Realiseeritud kasum: 3,978.36 rahaühikut ehk ~4% portfelli mahust
Realiseerimata kahjum positsioonidelt on momendil umbes 1500 rahaühikut
Portfell kokku koos positsioonide ja virtuaalrahaga alates 29.jaanuar umbes 2,5% plussis, millest üle 65% rahas.
TPX long 10K @19.41
CCU long 15K @31.29
SIRI long 5K @3.17
AMR short 5K @15.44
P.S. Ei tunne ühegi positsiooni osas mugavalt, vbla peaks losse cuttima. AMR ja TPX on kõige lambimad - üks oli langenud tugevalt ja teine tõusnud (nii ei tohi mitte kunagi teha) ...CCU`l ja SIRI`l eksisteerib vähemalt mingi gamblingu moment veel.
Üks risky trade tight stopiga MGI long 6K @5.09. Arvaks, et lühiajaliselt võiks väikse popi veel teha.
MGI MoneyGram: Upgrade details (4.97 -0.34) -Update-
As mentioned at 13:34, Keybanc upgraded MGI to Hold from Underweight, following news that the co announced it had reached a definitive agreement with an investment group led by Thomas H. Lee Partners and Goldman Sachs under which the investors would make a $710 mln equity investment at $5.00 per share in the co and lend the co up to $700 mln. They view these two announcements favorably, given that the primary source of uncertainty surrounding MGI was its ability to receive funding, and that WMT has played a critical role in MGI's money transfer volume growth over the past few years. They are upgrading the stock as they believe that the uncertainty regarding a necessary capital infusion is greatly reduced.
MGI MoneyGram: Upgrade details (4.97 -0.34) -Update-
As mentioned at 13:34, Keybanc upgraded MGI to Hold from Underweight, following news that the co announced it had reached a definitive agreement with an investment group led by Thomas H. Lee Partners and Goldman Sachs under which the investors would make a $710 mln equity investment at $5.00 per share in the co and lend the co up to $700 mln. They view these two announcements favorably, given that the primary source of uncertainty surrounding MGI was its ability to receive funding, and that WMT has played a critical role in MGI's money transfer volume growth over the past few years. They are upgrading the stock as they believe that the uncertainty regarding a necessary capital infusion is greatly reduced.
close 4.97
YHOO Yahoo!: Now that YHOO appears to have found a legit partner to help fend off MSFT, might actually see YHOO shares go down some (29.94 +0.37) -Update-
Of course, many will think that MSFT will be forced to come back with a much stronger bid now, but YHOO could partner up so well that MSFT simply drops its bid.
Proovime siis, YHOO short 29.85 ja 10K
Of course, many will think that MSFT will be forced to come back with a much stronger bid now, but YHOO could partner up so well that MSFT simply drops its bid.
Proovime siis, YHOO short 29.85 ja 10K
Ei tundu. 29.90 close
AXCA long 23.24 15K
AMR cover 14.87. DIVX long 5K @12.95 - tulemuste bet, täna peale turgu, very risky.
ANF 7K long @open
DIVX tuleb hoopis 11-märts
DIVX tuleb hoopis 11-märts
sell ANF 76.37
vähendame risky ja lossi poole võrra sell 7500 ühikut CCU 30.55
CCU out veel 2,5K31.01
CCU sell viimased 5K 31.53
Hetkel seis siis
Realiseeritud kasum 4006.89 virtuaalraha ehk ~4%
Positsioonid:
TPX long 10K @19.41
SIRI long 5K @3.17
AXCA long 15K @23.24
DIVX long 5K @12.95
Realiseeritud kasum 4006.89 virtuaalraha ehk ~4%
Positsioonid:
TPX long 10K @19.41
SIRI long 5K @3.17
AXCA long 15K @23.24
DIVX long 5K @12.95
WCG short 5K @52.88