1000 aktsiat teenukas on 79 taala investeerimiskontol. Ehk siis umbes 16 senti aktsia kohta edasi-tagasi tehingu pealt.
Tänud vastuse eest, no pole sellises väärtuses tehinguid (korraga) teinud, aga tundub et mul isegi odavam. Mõtlen lihtsalt ikka ka tulevikus Traderi konto teha ( just operatiivsemaks tegutsemiseks) ei viitsi ja ei taha ka T+3 alati oodata.
Ja läks uuesti müüki see 1k aktsiat @ 20.17. Ei usu turu positiivsuse püsimisse ja Waldis nagunii topib juba müügiordereid välja :)
Synchronoss-SNCR downgraded to Accumulate from Buy@THNK
ThinkPanmure expects a strong Q1 report but expects shares of SNCR to sell-off following the Q1 conference call due to modest guidance and the lack of a major customer win announcement. Target to $23 from $26.
Vahepeal on aktsia hoogsasti rallinud, nüüd tõenäoliselt saab odavamalt kätte. Pakun, et see dg toob aktsia alla $21 täna. Ostmas veel siiski poleks ka siis, tulemused liiga lähedal.
ThinkPanmure expects a strong Q1 report but expects shares of SNCR to sell-off following the Q1 conference call due to modest guidance and the lack of a major customer win announcement. Target to $23 from $26.
Vahepeal on aktsia hoogsasti rallinud, nüüd tõenäoliselt saab odavamalt kätte. Pakun, et see dg toob aktsia alla $21 täna. Ostmas veel siiski poleks ka siis, tulemused liiga lähedal.
Ma ütlen praegu ainult OIOIOIOIOI, mis perse. Ma olen väga rahul, et maha müüsin tükk aega enne tulemusi. ThinkPanmure dg oli kümnesse. Jõudsin natuke liiga hilja conf calli kuulama ja magasin alguse maha, homme kirjutan vast täpsemalt.
PS Õppetund: never bet against insiders. Waldis & co olid suurelt müümas kohe, kui aktsia üle 20 kerkis. Natuke vara veel väga konkreetselt öelda, aga ilmselt downgraden selle homme "broken story" peale.
Long 1k @ 12.80.
Paistab, et asjad pole nii hullud siiski kui esialgu tundus.. ja noh, hind on ka päris kõvasti alla tulnud.
Firma on muutunud 2H08 või siis isegi 2009 storyks. iPhone peaks taastuma 3G versiooni tulekuga selle aasta keskel, uued lepingud hakkavad midagi tootma parimal juhul 2009. aastal. Seega kohest paranemist ei ole oodata ja see võib investoreid eemale peletada. Ostan jupikaupa, kui odavalt pakutakse. Ja kui hind tõuseb, siis jälle valmis maha müüma. $13 kandis peaks hea hind olema küll.
Pikemalt ei viitsi kirjutada, sest nagunii ma pean siin ainult monoloogi.
Paistab, et asjad pole nii hullud siiski kui esialgu tundus.. ja noh, hind on ka päris kõvasti alla tulnud.
Firma on muutunud 2H08 või siis isegi 2009 storyks. iPhone peaks taastuma 3G versiooni tulekuga selle aasta keskel, uued lepingud hakkavad midagi tootma parimal juhul 2009. aastal. Seega kohest paranemist ei ole oodata ja see võib investoreid eemale peletada. Ostan jupikaupa, kui odavalt pakutakse. Ja kui hind tõuseb, siis jälle valmis maha müüma. $13 kandis peaks hea hind olema küll.
Pikemalt ei viitsi kirjutada, sest nagunii ma pean siin ainult monoloogi.
no teistel on hea monoloogi ka lugeda.
vahepeal käis mõte läbi, et läheks virtuaalportus lühikeseks SNCRs ...neid väikseid teche on mu meelest karistatud korralikult viimasel ajal (õiugemini on nagunii 1-2 silma alla jäänud)
vahepeal käis mõte läbi, et läheks virtuaalportus lühikeseks SNCRs ...neid väikseid teche on mu meelest karistatud korralikult viimasel ajal (õiugemini on nagunii 1-2 silma alla jäänud)
Jim, jäta jama, see on üks põnevamaid lugemisi!
Panin müügiorderi teistpidi välja @ 14.40, eks näis, kas saab pihta.
Lihtsalt kardan, et esialgne bounce väga kaua ei kesta, sellepärast võtaks sealt kasumi laualt ära. Kui antakse muidugi.
Miks bounce ei peaks väga pikalt kestma? Sest et kasv on edasi lükkunud ja agressiivsetele investoritele ei pruugi see meeldida.
Lihtsalt kardan, et esialgne bounce väga kaua ei kesta, sellepärast võtaks sealt kasumi laualt ära. Kui antakse muidugi.
Miks bounce ei peaks väga pikalt kestma? Sest et kasv on edasi lükkunud ja agressiivsetele investoritele ei pruugi see meeldida.
Long veel 1k @ 13.10. Tänasest põrkamisest ilmselt rohkem midagi välja ei tule, aga ei usu ka olulisse langusesse. Kui siiski kukkuma peaks, võtan juurde. Pikema ülevaate jõuan ilmselt alles nädalavahetusel kirjutada.
Synchronoss: Turning Out to Be a Rotten Apple
Synchronoss Gives Rocky Outlook; Unlocked iPhones Take Their Toll
CFO Lawrence Irving added that the company does not expect most of the impact from its new customers until 2009 and beyond.
The company also announced a $25 million buyback plan.
Niisiis, põhiline põhjus Apple poolt müüdud ja AT&T võrgus aktiveeritud iPhone-de suur koguseline erinevus. Ja SNCR arvab, et selline olukord jätkub.
Jim, mis muutub sinu arvates 3G versiooni tulekuga?
Õhus on risk, et "Right now, there is a huge sign to sell as there will be massive panic over the fact that SNCR may not be included in the new iPhone 3G application. If this is so, it could completely destroy the company's top and bottom line."
Apple Inc. said Tuesday it reached a deal with Vodafone Group to distribute the iPhone in 10 countries, and for the first time will sell the device with two operators in a single market.
According to a brief statement issued by Vodafone (VOD), the phones will be sold in Australia, the Czech Republic, Egypt, Greece, Italy, India, Portugal, New Zealand, South Africa and Turkey "later this year."
Kes aktiveerib need telefonid?
Applel paistab olevat suund eksklusiivlepingutest (nagu praegu iPhone osas AT&T -ga on) eemale liikuda. On tõesti võimalus, et sama juhtub ka AT&T lepinguga.. kui tõenäoline see on, ei oska öelda. Samas, kui turg seda väga tõenäoliseks peaks, siis oleks ilmselt ka AT&T natuke rohkem pihta saanud, kuna ka nemad oleks sellisel juhul kaotajad.
Anyway, Synchronossi ja AT&T lepingu osas olen üsna kindel, et see püsib ka edaspidi kindlalt. No ei ole lihtsalt põhjust seda lõpetada.. sest pole paremat alternatiivi. Ja isegi kui AT&T-l poleks enam eksklusiivset iPhone esindusõigust USAs, siis meenub kunagisest konverentskõnest infokilluke a la "we have captured only 10% of our AT&T potential" vms. Ehk siis kasvuvõimalusi AT&T -s on kõvasti ka väljaspool iPhonet.
Kõige olulisem infokilluke oli minu jaoks hoopis see, et Vodafonega on käimas testimine.. kuigi nii Sprint kui Vodafone kui ka AT&T muus osas peale iPhone on pigem 2009. aasta teema, tuleb tulevikku vaadata.. ja selles valguses tundub praegune sell-off mõnevõrra lühinägelik.
Minu arvamus: juhtkond oli juba teist korda sunnitud 2008. aasta prognoose alandama. Et mitte kolmandat korda seda teha, tõmmati guidance nii alla kui vähegi võimalik. Suure tõenäosusega neid numbreid ületatakse.. nii Goldman kui ka Deutsche pank arvavad, et tegelikud numbrid tulevad firma prognoosidest kõrgemad.
Anyway, Synchronossi ja AT&T lepingu osas olen üsna kindel, et see püsib ka edaspidi kindlalt. No ei ole lihtsalt põhjust seda lõpetada.. sest pole paremat alternatiivi. Ja isegi kui AT&T-l poleks enam eksklusiivset iPhone esindusõigust USAs, siis meenub kunagisest konverentskõnest infokilluke a la "we have captured only 10% of our AT&T potential" vms. Ehk siis kasvuvõimalusi AT&T -s on kõvasti ka väljaspool iPhonet.
Kõige olulisem infokilluke oli minu jaoks hoopis see, et Vodafonega on käimas testimine.. kuigi nii Sprint kui Vodafone kui ka AT&T muus osas peale iPhone on pigem 2009. aasta teema, tuleb tulevikku vaadata.. ja selles valguses tundub praegune sell-off mõnevõrra lühinägelik.
Minu arvamus: juhtkond oli juba teist korda sunnitud 2008. aasta prognoose alandama. Et mitte kolmandat korda seda teha, tõmmati guidance nii alla kui vähegi võimalik. Suure tõenäosusega neid numbreid ületatakse.. nii Goldman kui ka Deutsche pank arvavad, et tegelikud numbrid tulevad firma prognoosidest kõrgemad.
Deutsche panga notest:
Investments made in
Europe are starting to pay off as the company is in certification
testing with Vodafone in Germany.
Nii et tõenäosus on täiesti olemas, et SNCR aktiveerib need telefonid. Midagi kindlat siiski vara veel öelda.
Investments made in
Europe are starting to pay off as the company is in certification
testing with Vodafone in Germany.
Nii et tõenäosus on täiesti olemas, et SNCR aktiveerib need telefonid. Midagi kindlat siiski vara veel öelda.
Ka Notable Calls kirjutab täna SNCR-ist:
Synchronoss (NASDAQ:SNCR): Actionable Buy Alert!
Synchronoss (NASDAQ:SNCR): Actionable Buy Alert!
Goldman on selle lehe*: http://www.mffais.com/sncr.html andmetel aga osalust peaaegu poole võrra vähendanud peale tulemusi.
* - leht võib olla kräpp, võib-olla ei ole seal ka seost, aga tundub imelik, kui see siiski nii on.
* - leht võib olla kräpp, võib-olla ei ole seal ka seost, aga tundub imelik, kui see siiski nii on.
Maile vaadates selgus, et reedel sai 1k SNCR maha müüdud, olin selle 14.9 peale välja jätnud. Teist poolt veel hoian. Vaikselt hakkab turg aru saama, et ei ole midagi nii hullu kui esialgu tundus.
Laisk inimene nagu ma olen, panen enda teksti asemel seekord hoopis analüütikute noted:
Deutsche Bank:
New process to take a step back in effort to thwart unlocking
Apple announced the much-awaited 3G iPhone today. However, Apple and
AT&T apparently make a departure from the Synchronoss-enabled
automation that allowed users to activate the 2G iPhone on their own.
We called several Apple and AT&T stores and were told that the 3G
iPhone will only be activated by staff in AT&T or Apple stores at the
time of purchase, a manual process similar to the one used for other
smart-phones such as the BlackBerry.and Microsoft Mobile. We maintain
our Buy rating on continued competitive strength of SNCR's product.
Back to manual process
The AT&T stores told us Smart-phones typically range in activation
times from 10-25 minutes for new service and a new number (longer if
not). AT&T's President of National Distribution, Glenn Lurie, was
quoted in the press as saying activation in the store will take 10-12
minutes. This is much greater than the typically well-under-5-minute
process of the 2G iPhone, confirming that 3G iPhones will be activated
on the proprietary in-store system for now as Apple and AT&T are
apparently opting to have a more costly activation process than
continuing to see large numbers of devices become unlocked. We
strongly believe the issue is completely unrelated to performance by
Synchronoss.
Synchronoss' guidance prescient
SNCR's guidance last month discussing a $2.5mn run-rate for iPhone
activations exiting 2008 appears to have taken this change into
account. This could mean one or both of the following: (1) SNCR
continues to process the increasing number of the move/add/change
transactions at AT&T or will perhaps begin to activate in-store later
this year; and/or (2) SNCR is taking into account a second operator
win in Europe or Asia that will start ramping up toward the end of
2008.
Reiterate Buy and reducing price target from $30 to $24
Our price target reduction reflects the removal of the large iPhone
upside potential we had thought still a strong opportunity at AT&T and
reflects a 2009 uFCF of $0.86, a growth rate of 25% (after options
dilution) and a multiple of 1.0x, consistent with the peer group.
Risks include delays in customer adoption of activation technology,
slow ramp in new customers and competitors entering the market.
Goldman Sachs:
3G iPhone activations move in-store: implications mixed
What's changed
The widely anticipated 3G iPhone release was accompanied by a shift in the
retail activation dynamics for the handset, moving the process in-store
(either at AT&T or Apple locations) and away from the consumer-initiated,
at-home iTunes application used for the 2.5G launch.
Implications
The change in activation procedure limits upside potential to 2H2008 as
Synchronoss' platform will not, in our view, support the in-store retail
activations; however, consistent with our view after our May 9 meetings with
management, we believe this scenario was well contemplated in the company's
revised 2008 guidance. Importantly, with AT&T's disclosure that the move to
in-store activations was directly related to a very broad-based decision to
subsidize the iPhone in the US, we continue to believe the result is
completely unrelated to Synchronoss' performance/pricing for on-line
activation support. While we are reducing our above-consensus upside scenario
to estimates, we continue to believe that the reason to buy the stock remains
outside of the iPhone, where business momentum remains robust. We retain our
Buy rating and would use near-term volatility in the shares as opportunistic
entry points.
Valuation
Our 6-month price target, based on five equally weighted multiple-based
metrics, remains $19 as we believe Synchronoss' non-iPhone business is worth
at least this on a stand-alone basis given its growth dynamics. Our estimate
changes account for lower iPhone revenue but we also raise our non-iPhone
revenues. Our price target implies a 23x 2009E EPS (ex-ESOs) of $0.84,
implying a 1.0x PEG vs. our normalized 24% earnings growth in 2010 when the
shift in iPhone revenue contributions fully anniversaries. We believe this is
an appropriate approach to valuation at this point.
Ühesõnaga, iPhone hakkab nüüdsest Synchronossist mööda käima vähemalt esialgu. Võibolla hakkab AT&T kasutama poodides SNCR tarkvara, kuid praegu küll mitte. Seega.. sitt lugu, Igor :)
Enne eilset üritust oli aktsiat üsna hoogsasti ostetud ja suure tõenäosusega on nüüd jälle pettunud aktsinäre. Kui saab enamvähem normaalset hinda, müün ilmselt oma allesjäänud paki täna turu avanemisel maha. Dead money.
Deutsche Bank:
New process to take a step back in effort to thwart unlocking
Apple announced the much-awaited 3G iPhone today. However, Apple and
AT&T apparently make a departure from the Synchronoss-enabled
automation that allowed users to activate the 2G iPhone on their own.
We called several Apple and AT&T stores and were told that the 3G
iPhone will only be activated by staff in AT&T or Apple stores at the
time of purchase, a manual process similar to the one used for other
smart-phones such as the BlackBerry.and Microsoft Mobile. We maintain
our Buy rating on continued competitive strength of SNCR's product.
Back to manual process
The AT&T stores told us Smart-phones typically range in activation
times from 10-25 minutes for new service and a new number (longer if
not). AT&T's President of National Distribution, Glenn Lurie, was
quoted in the press as saying activation in the store will take 10-12
minutes. This is much greater than the typically well-under-5-minute
process of the 2G iPhone, confirming that 3G iPhones will be activated
on the proprietary in-store system for now as Apple and AT&T are
apparently opting to have a more costly activation process than
continuing to see large numbers of devices become unlocked. We
strongly believe the issue is completely unrelated to performance by
Synchronoss.
Synchronoss' guidance prescient
SNCR's guidance last month discussing a $2.5mn run-rate for iPhone
activations exiting 2008 appears to have taken this change into
account. This could mean one or both of the following: (1) SNCR
continues to process the increasing number of the move/add/change
transactions at AT&T or will perhaps begin to activate in-store later
this year; and/or (2) SNCR is taking into account a second operator
win in Europe or Asia that will start ramping up toward the end of
2008.
Reiterate Buy and reducing price target from $30 to $24
Our price target reduction reflects the removal of the large iPhone
upside potential we had thought still a strong opportunity at AT&T and
reflects a 2009 uFCF of $0.86, a growth rate of 25% (after options
dilution) and a multiple of 1.0x, consistent with the peer group.
Risks include delays in customer adoption of activation technology,
slow ramp in new customers and competitors entering the market.
Goldman Sachs:
3G iPhone activations move in-store: implications mixed
What's changed
The widely anticipated 3G iPhone release was accompanied by a shift in the
retail activation dynamics for the handset, moving the process in-store
(either at AT&T or Apple locations) and away from the consumer-initiated,
at-home iTunes application used for the 2.5G launch.
Implications
The change in activation procedure limits upside potential to 2H2008 as
Synchronoss' platform will not, in our view, support the in-store retail
activations; however, consistent with our view after our May 9 meetings with
management, we believe this scenario was well contemplated in the company's
revised 2008 guidance. Importantly, with AT&T's disclosure that the move to
in-store activations was directly related to a very broad-based decision to
subsidize the iPhone in the US, we continue to believe the result is
completely unrelated to Synchronoss' performance/pricing for on-line
activation support. While we are reducing our above-consensus upside scenario
to estimates, we continue to believe that the reason to buy the stock remains
outside of the iPhone, where business momentum remains robust. We retain our
Buy rating and would use near-term volatility in the shares as opportunistic
entry points.
Valuation
Our 6-month price target, based on five equally weighted multiple-based
metrics, remains $19 as we believe Synchronoss' non-iPhone business is worth
at least this on a stand-alone basis given its growth dynamics. Our estimate
changes account for lower iPhone revenue but we also raise our non-iPhone
revenues. Our price target implies a 23x 2009E EPS (ex-ESOs) of $0.84,
implying a 1.0x PEG vs. our normalized 24% earnings growth in 2010 when the
shift in iPhone revenue contributions fully anniversaries. We believe this is
an appropriate approach to valuation at this point.
Ühesõnaga, iPhone hakkab nüüdsest Synchronossist mööda käima vähemalt esialgu. Võibolla hakkab AT&T kasutama poodides SNCR tarkvara, kuid praegu küll mitte. Seega.. sitt lugu, Igor :)
Enne eilset üritust oli aktsiat üsna hoogsasti ostetud ja suure tõenäosusega on nüüd jälle pettunud aktsinäre. Kui saab enamvähem normaalset hinda, müün ilmselt oma allesjäänud paki täna turu avanemisel maha. Dead money.
Krt, eelturul oleks veel saanud normaalset hinda, aga LHV investeerimiskontoga siis muidugi ei saa müüa :)
Seega siis hoopis võtsin juurde 1k SNCR @ $11.33. Goddamn, see oli ju tegelikult guidancest välja loetav, kuidas olukord iPhonega ja aktsia juba sai selle peale tappa. Jah, oli tegelasi, kes ikka lootsid natuke (mina osaliselt kaasa arvatud :) ), aga praegu usun, et ainult upside üllatused on võimalikud.
PS Ei ütle, et just siin põhi on, olen valmis altpoolt juurde võtma. Nagu eelmises postituses ütlesin, pettunud tegelasi on, kes müügipoolel, selle arvelt võib soodsamaid tasemeid näha küll veel.
Seega siis hoopis võtsin juurde 1k SNCR @ $11.33. Goddamn, see oli ju tegelikult guidancest välja loetav, kuidas olukord iPhonega ja aktsia juba sai selle peale tappa. Jah, oli tegelasi, kes ikka lootsid natuke (mina osaliselt kaasa arvatud :) ), aga praegu usun, et ainult upside üllatused on võimalikud.
PS Ei ütle, et just siin põhi on, olen valmis altpoolt juurde võtma. Nagu eelmises postituses ütlesin, pettunud tegelasi on, kes müügipoolel, selle arvelt võib soodsamaid tasemeid näha küll veel.