Motoguzzi,
hmm, huvitav juhtum. Küsiks üle - kas tegemist on reaalse või virtuaalse rahaga?
The rule is that there are no rules. Turg pidevalt muutub ja kõige olulisem ongi vast kohanemisvõime. Tõeline prussakas peab olema :)
sB
sB
Tahtsin juba ammu seda küsida, aga Kristjan küsis nüüd ära. ;-)
Lhv-s on mul pärisportfelli koopia, et oleks meeles, mis seis on. Nüüd ostsin paljulubava Kashastani naftafirma aktsiaid, P/E 6,5 . Usun, et sellega teen kahjumi tagasi. Otsin laenurahaga, aga õnneks on intress madal. Tänan siinkohal lahket laenajat Armas Rüütlit.
Väga kahtlane selline kaotuste tagasitegemise strateegia. Kui oleks minu teha, parseldaksin selle naftafirma positsioonid maha ja maksaksin kiiresti laenu tagasi. Mis siis teed, kui selle papi kah kaotad?
No aga mis ma eelmise kahjumiga peaks siis tegema??? Maksan ühe laenuga teise tagasi??? Mis selle mõte ka on. Tuleb raha teenida ja edasi elada eks.
ma olen ikka imetlenud neid inimesi, kes ainuüksi madala P/E põhjal investeerimisotsusi teevad
motoguzzi toodud parameetrite põhjal näib tegu olevat PetroKasahstan (PKZ) aktsiatega ...
tahakski nüüd teada, kust tuleb motoguzzi arvates ettevõtte kasv ja kas mitte naftahinna langus seda oluliselt pärssida ei võiks ...
motoguzzi toodud parameetrite põhjal näib tegu olevat PetroKasahstan (PKZ) aktsiatega ...
tahakski nüüd teada, kust tuleb motoguzzi arvates ettevõtte kasv ja kas mitte naftahinna langus seda oluliselt pärssida ei võiks ...
pärisportfelli koopia? kes selgitaks, et miks? :)
Olen PKZ aktsiaid korra omanud ja hoian endiselt radaril. Tegemist on ilmselt ühe maailma odavaima naftakompaniiga, kuid samas on ka riskid suured. Üheks riskiks on kindlasti nafta hinna langus ja teiseks on tegu võimaliku poliitilise püssirohutünniga.
Positiivse poole pealt saab välja tuua kvartaalsed dividendid, kuid tootlus on siiski madal.
Laenatud rahaga seda aktsiat kindlasti osta ei julgeks.
Positiivse poole pealt saab välja tuua kvartaalsed dividendid, kuid tootlus on siiski madal.
Laenatud rahaga seda aktsiat kindlasti osta ei julgeks.
Pärisportfelli positsioon on realiseeritud juba veidi varem kuid virtuaalis on hea jälgida, mis edasi sai.
P/E suhe on sel naftafirmal tõesti hea ja ma arvan, et antud riigis on naftavarud võrreldavad Venega. Nafta hind langeb = NEVER ANYMORE. Minge vaadake palun Platts-i või muid indekseid. Ta ei kuku vaid TÕUSEB ja RÄIGELT edaspidi.
P/E suhe on sel naftafirmal tõesti hea ja ma arvan, et antud riigis on naftavarud võrreldavad Venega. Nafta hind langeb = NEVER ANYMORE. Minge vaadake palun Platts-i või muid indekseid. Ta ei kuku vaid TÕUSEB ja RÄIGELT edaspidi.
Mul on veel 50tuh vaba cashi, kas on äkki pakkuda mõnd head optsiooni?
Aga kas sellisel juhul oleks ehk mõttekas positsioon puttidega kindlustada ?
Isiklikult kasutangi rohkem putte sest stoppidest ma eriti kinni ei pea.
Isiklikult kasutangi rohkem putte sest stoppidest ma eriti kinni ei pea.
Pakun, et motoguzzi bullshitib teid kõiki ja teie ullikesed usute ka!
what a joke! 200k optsioonide alla. yea right!
what a joke! 200k optsioonide alla. yea right!
No siis tehku harakiri
Natuke kahtlane asi tundub küll. Kõigepealt 200k korstnasse ja siis võtan laenu jne. aga kui nii siis pole midagi öelda:)
Hoppa! Selliseid vendi, kes 200k kaupa optsioonipossu võtavad, on meie väikse riigi pinnal teisigi. Nii, et äkki tõesti tegi ka moto selle triki ära. Mis puudutab laenurahaga PKZ-i ostmisesse, siis tekib mul tunne, et ausõna ei tahaks ise moto nahas olla. Kohe üldse ei tahaks. Ma arvan, et mul hakkavad kõige hullemad õudusunenäod sellega, et olles just pannud optsiooniga raha huugama, võtan ma laenu, et mingit head aktsiat osta... Aaaa! Nightmare on Wall Street!
...aga kui kedagi huvitab UNIVERSUMI odavaim naftafirma, siis tasuks vaadata Venemaalt Ritekit... :-)
...aga kui kedagi huvitab UNIVERSUMI odavaim naftafirma, siis tasuks vaadata Venemaalt Ritekit... :-)
Tuletaks veidi ajalugu meelde.
PetroKazakhstan reports $91M competition-law court setback: will be appealed
The Calgary-based company, all of whose operations are in the Central Asian country, said the Astana city court ruled against "a number of group companies acting as oil products distributors."
They were accused by the Agency for Regulation of Natural Monopolies and Protection of Competition of violating Kazakhstan competition laws and taking $91 million US in unjustified revenues.
http://money.canoe.ca/News/Sectors/Energy/PetroKazakhstan/2004/01/30/330415-cp.html
Sarnane case võib uuesti igal ajal erinevates vormides korduda.
PetroKazakhstan reports $91M competition-law court setback: will be appealed
The Calgary-based company, all of whose operations are in the Central Asian country, said the Astana city court ruled against "a number of group companies acting as oil products distributors."
They were accused by the Agency for Regulation of Natural Monopolies and Protection of Competition of violating Kazakhstan competition laws and taking $91 million US in unjustified revenues.
http://money.canoe.ca/News/Sectors/Energy/PetroKazakhstan/2004/01/30/330415-cp.html
Sarnane case võib uuesti igal ajal erinevates vormides korduda.
Vene maaklerfirma ATON reedene kommentaar...
PetroKazakhstan
Posts 2004 GAAP results, ups dividend payout
PetroKazakhstan (PKZ) last night posted 2004 GAAP results showing record revenue of $1.6bn, up 47% y-o-y, and net income of $501mn, up 58% y-o-y, just shy of our rather high expectations (revenue of $1.7bn, net income of $535mn).
However, on a quarterly basis, 4Q04 revenue fell 22% due to a 19% q-o-q decline in crude oil sales and a 26% decline in oil product sales – despite rising oil and product prices. PKZ said the 4Q04 revenue fall was due to an increase in its inventories as well as seasonal factors. The company said that 2Q05 and 3Q05 should see higher revenue as the additional inventory is sold off.
Returning to the full year results, total operating expenses rose 36% y-o-y to $719mn, in line with our estimates. The most significant cost increase was for oil purchased, which increased 97% y-o-y to $111mn (still below our forecast). Production taxes also increased a hefty 54% y-o-y, while transport costs rose 21% y-o-y, slightly higher than expected.
As a result, EBITDA rose an impressive 57% y-o-y to a record $923mn. Meanwhile, a 115% y-o-y rise in income taxes to $356mn was due to excess profit tax, though higher tax burden was partially offset by a deferred tax gain of $55mn.
Net income in 2004 rose 37% y-o-y to $501mn, which was 7% below our forecast $535mn. Adjusted for FX gains and deferred taxes, net income slipped to $435mn, however, some 19% below our expectations. Returning to the quarterly breakdown, 4Q04 operating cash flow plunged 78% q-o-q to $42.7mn due to a sharp reduction in accounts payable (the company did not provided an explanation).
However, the quarterly operating cash flow decline had a limited impact on full year 2004 operating cash flow, which rose by 58% to $536mn, in line with expectations.
PKZ said its regular quarterly dividends would be increased 33% q-o-q to $0.17 from 1Q05. The company also said it has bought back 459,000 shares (0.6% of total outstanding) to date this year.
On a more negative note, the company said in February it received a $17mn claim in damages from its 50% subsidiary Turgai Petroleum and that its 50/50 Kazgermunai JV received a $102mn claim from the regional authorities for failure to meet its infrastructure agreements. PKZ declined to provide further details on its conflict with Lukoil over Turgai, citing the confidentiality of the JV agreement. However, it played down the significance of the potential consequences, noting the impact on its financials from a court order to the Shymkent refinery to accept Turgai oil for processing was unlikely to exceed $20mn.
The company said it is continuing to look at possible acquisitions – and confirmed its commitment to the Caspian region – but said valuations were very high at present, limiting the scope for purchases. It also said it was optimistic about an improvement in its relationship with the authorities, though it noted the Kazakh government was becoming more assertive in the current high oil price environment.
Overall, while the results were slightly weaker than our own and the broader market’s expectations, we do not see the slight earnings miss as material. Near-term, record high oil prices will likely remain the key driver for the stock; medium-term, however, we expect investors to pay greater attention to stagnating output, conflicts with JV partners and the authorities and rising taxes and capex. This explains our fundamental Hold recommendation on the stock despite very low valuation multiples. In the near future we plan to update our 2005-2006 estimates for PKZ to take into account the actual 2004 figures.
PetroKazakhstan
Posts 2004 GAAP results, ups dividend payout
PetroKazakhstan (PKZ) last night posted 2004 GAAP results showing record revenue of $1.6bn, up 47% y-o-y, and net income of $501mn, up 58% y-o-y, just shy of our rather high expectations (revenue of $1.7bn, net income of $535mn).
However, on a quarterly basis, 4Q04 revenue fell 22% due to a 19% q-o-q decline in crude oil sales and a 26% decline in oil product sales – despite rising oil and product prices. PKZ said the 4Q04 revenue fall was due to an increase in its inventories as well as seasonal factors. The company said that 2Q05 and 3Q05 should see higher revenue as the additional inventory is sold off.
Returning to the full year results, total operating expenses rose 36% y-o-y to $719mn, in line with our estimates. The most significant cost increase was for oil purchased, which increased 97% y-o-y to $111mn (still below our forecast). Production taxes also increased a hefty 54% y-o-y, while transport costs rose 21% y-o-y, slightly higher than expected.
As a result, EBITDA rose an impressive 57% y-o-y to a record $923mn. Meanwhile, a 115% y-o-y rise in income taxes to $356mn was due to excess profit tax, though higher tax burden was partially offset by a deferred tax gain of $55mn.
Net income in 2004 rose 37% y-o-y to $501mn, which was 7% below our forecast $535mn. Adjusted for FX gains and deferred taxes, net income slipped to $435mn, however, some 19% below our expectations. Returning to the quarterly breakdown, 4Q04 operating cash flow plunged 78% q-o-q to $42.7mn due to a sharp reduction in accounts payable (the company did not provided an explanation).
However, the quarterly operating cash flow decline had a limited impact on full year 2004 operating cash flow, which rose by 58% to $536mn, in line with expectations.
PKZ said its regular quarterly dividends would be increased 33% q-o-q to $0.17 from 1Q05. The company also said it has bought back 459,000 shares (0.6% of total outstanding) to date this year.
On a more negative note, the company said in February it received a $17mn claim in damages from its 50% subsidiary Turgai Petroleum and that its 50/50 Kazgermunai JV received a $102mn claim from the regional authorities for failure to meet its infrastructure agreements. PKZ declined to provide further details on its conflict with Lukoil over Turgai, citing the confidentiality of the JV agreement. However, it played down the significance of the potential consequences, noting the impact on its financials from a court order to the Shymkent refinery to accept Turgai oil for processing was unlikely to exceed $20mn.
The company said it is continuing to look at possible acquisitions – and confirmed its commitment to the Caspian region – but said valuations were very high at present, limiting the scope for purchases. It also said it was optimistic about an improvement in its relationship with the authorities, though it noted the Kazakh government was becoming more assertive in the current high oil price environment.
Overall, while the results were slightly weaker than our own and the broader market’s expectations, we do not see the slight earnings miss as material. Near-term, record high oil prices will likely remain the key driver for the stock; medium-term, however, we expect investors to pay greater attention to stagnating output, conflicts with JV partners and the authorities and rising taxes and capex. This explains our fundamental Hold recommendation on the stock despite very low valuation multiples. In the near future we plan to update our 2005-2006 estimates for PKZ to take into account the actual 2004 figures.
i got the picture!
väga kerge on foorumis anonüümselt mingit jama ajada. pärisportfelli koopia? no vabandage. inimesi on väga erinevaid, kuid miks peaks bluffima oma kaotuste kohta? loomaaed on kirju.