Kui tankeritesse panna, siis mida soovitaksid? Krt, NAT oli eile heal tasemel (4,7 ja 4,8 kanti), aga magasin maha.
Hind paneb muidugi lahedalt üles alla, viimastel päevadel müüdi pigem need aktsiad jälle liialt vastu maad.
Visahing
DHT puhul ennustaks Q2 tulemuseks
Q1 tulu 151M + 12M + (584päeva * 50 000$)= 151+42M=193M.
div 0,37$
See 152M Q1 ja nüüd 164.4M Q2 prognoositud enne 584 päeva peaks brutokasum olema, ehk sealt juba reisikulud maha arvestatud. Ehk siis tuleks juurde ~584*30000= 17,5M ja kokku Q2 brutokasum 182M (ehk 30M suurem kui Q1).
Kui interest derivative-e mitte arvestada, siis oleks puhaskasum Q1 85M ja Q2 sama analoogia järgi 115M.
Ehk pakun kõrvale optimistlikuma versiooni EPS Q2 0.78 ja div. 60% 0.47.
Ameerika mäed
Seda on lihtsalt huvitav ajaloost lugeda
April Reuters reported that oil held in tanker floating storage reached at least 160 million barrels,
including 60 VLCCs, up massively from levels witnessed just a couple of months ago. There is nothing new
about floating storage, which we classify as vessels laden and stationary for at least a four week period.
Back in 2015/16 up to 50 VLCCs were involved in crude floating storage, in part due to a contango play
and partly due to Iranian sanctions. A storage flotilla was even more impressive in the 2nd half of
2009/early 2010, with tankers being used to store both crude and products. Back then, the number of
vessels tied up in storage (from VLCCs down to LR1/Panamaxes) peaked at 131 units, with VLCC
numbers being as high as 56 vessels at one point.
https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/2020-05-07-It-Takes-Two-to-ConTango.pdf
April Reuters reported that oil held in tanker floating storage reached at least 160 million barrels,
including 60 VLCCs, up massively from levels witnessed just a couple of months ago. There is nothing new
about floating storage, which we classify as vessels laden and stationary for at least a four week period.
Back in 2015/16 up to 50 VLCCs were involved in crude floating storage, in part due to a contango play
and partly due to Iranian sanctions. A storage flotilla was even more impressive in the 2nd half of
2009/early 2010, with tankers being used to store both crude and products. Back then, the number of
vessels tied up in storage (from VLCCs down to LR1/Panamaxes) peaked at 131 units, with VLCC
numbers being as high as 56 vessels at one point.
https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/2020-05-07-It-Takes-Two-to-ConTango.pdf
Euronavi kõne link, likviidsus1 miljard, 10% dividendi hetke hinnalt poole aasta eest, jube hea küsimuste vastuste voor, see minu lemmik osa tulemustest. Peale tulemusi sain juba meili, et 15 aasta vanune müüdi jõhkra klotsi eest. Kindlasti üks, keda tasub harimise mõttes jälgida. https://seekingalpha.com/article/4345139-euronav-n-v-eurn-ceo-hugo-de-stoop-on-q1-2020-results-earnings-call-transcript?part=single
Olen pikalt jälginud kruiisifirmasi ja otsustasin eile 11.95/tk NCLH osta. Ma ei usu et kauaks ta vinduma jääb, küll leiavad laevadele muu ajutise kasutuse isegi kui kruiise see aasta ei korraldata.
Lorien
Olen pikalt jälginud kruiisifirmasi ja otsustasin eile 11.95/tk NCLH osta. Ma ei usu et kauaks ta vinduma jääb, küll leiavad laevadele muu ajutise kasutuse isegi kui kruiise see aasta ei korraldata.
näiteks millise kasutuse?
pahurikLorien
Olen pikalt jälginud kruiisifirmasi ja otsustasin eile 11.95/tk NCLH osta. Ma ei usu et kauaks ta vinduma jääb, küll leiavad laevadele muu ajutise kasutuse isegi kui kruiise see aasta ei korraldata.
näiteks millise kasutuse?
Kohe puusalt pannes kasvõi kaupu vedada (peaks mahtuma ühele korralikule laevale küll mõned kastid), siis a la ujuv majutus/hotell (merevaade olemas kogu aeg, toitlustust saab pakkuda), Ja kui kohalikud "regioonid" avanevad siis ka nende piires kruiise pakkuda. Kuna ise ei tööta otseselt selles sektoris, siis võib mõni idee vildakas olla, aga samas miks mitte eks.
Kuidas see nüüd siis kokku kõlab, et oled neid pikalt jälginud ja siis pakud koheselt ja puusalt välja kaks asendustegevust, millest üks on absoluutselt tehniliselt ebasobiv ja teine nende põhitegevus?
Visahing
Ameerika mäed
Visa, mida sa NAT tulemustest ootad? Teevad oma predicted EPS 0,25€ ära ja rohkemgi veel?
Tulemused ja dividend kedagi ei koti, kärped ja nõudlus mõjutab turu liikumist. Huvitav palju selliseid Crameri korraldatud pumpamise meedias maksavad? Milleks seda vaja oli, kas tehti ATM mis ennem heaks kiidetud või lihtsalt suure raha trikid. Hetkel olen natuke DHT sees.
Sama, ostsin end eelmisel reedel DHT-sse, mis näis parim valik.
NAT-i CEO ja Crameri stunt oli muidugi üliägedalt tehtud - puhas PR value kahe hullu poolt, pani naerma küll ja kellegile kuskil oli see pump väga kasulik.
WTI ja Brent tõstavad täna igaljuhul kenasti pead, näis mis edasi saab.
NAT-i CEO ja Crameri stunt oli muidugi üliägedalt tehtud - puhas PR value kahe hullu poolt, pani naerma küll ja kellegile kuskil oli see pump väga kasulik.
WTI ja Brent tõstavad täna igaljuhul kenasti pead, näis mis edasi saab.
Ma ostin täna 6,24 pealt ja ei kiindu :)
Saudid lubasid taaskord 1M kärbet ja kärped hetkel suuremad kui oodatud, eks see toetab nafta hinda.
Saudid lubasid taaskord 1M kärbet ja kärped hetkel suuremad kui oodatud, eks see toetab nafta hinda.
Nordic America tanker tulemused https://www.nat.bm/nordic-american-tankers-ltd-nyse-nat-report-for-the-first-quarter-2020-first-quarter-net-operating-earnings-beat-the-full-year-2019/
Teekay Tanker (TNK) tugevate tulemustega väljas.
Visa, kas sul on DHT endiselt käes?
Ei ole ühtegi tankerit.
Ja miks ma ei oma, on teadmatus, mis edasi saab. Normaalse olukorra nõudluse naasmist endisele tasemele raske näha ja ca 10M tootmise lõikamist on ikka mega palju. Pikemalt tnk tekst. Tanker Market
The first quarter of 2020 started on a relatively strong note, as positive supply and demand fundamentals existing during the fourth quarter of 2019 continued into the early part of the year. However, crude tanker spot rates gradually softened through the course of January 2020 due to lower demand ahead of Chinese New Year, and weakened further during February 2020 as the COVID-19 outbreak began to impact Asian crude oil imports.
The tanker market improved quickly during March 2020 with the collapse of the OPEC+ supply agreement and subsequent price war waged by Saudi Arabia and Russia. Both countries increased production substantially during March and April 2020, resulting in higher crude oil exports and increased shipping demand. At the same time, global oil demand plummeted as lockdown restrictions were implemented in many parts of the world in order to halt the spread of the COVID-19 virus. This led to a significant mismatch between global oil supply and demand and a historic build in global oil inventories. The rapid build in inventories drove oil prices to multi-year lows and pushed the crude oil futures curve into a steep contango, which encouraged oil traders to charter ships for floating storage. The increasing number of tankers being utilized for storage led to a tightening of available fleet supply which, in combination with healthy cargo supply, resulted in increased tanker fleet utilization. As a result, mid-size tanker spot rates during the first quarter of 2020 were the highest since 2008.
Crude tanker spot rates have remained firm at the beginning of the second quarter of 2020. However, the outlook for spot rates has become more uncertain. In the near-term, global oil supply is expected to decline substantially, which should result in fewer spot cargoes. The OPEC+ group of producers have announced record supply cuts of 9.7 million barrels per day ( mb/d ) starting in May 2020, with Saudi Arabia subsequently pledging to cut supply by a further 1 mb/d in June 2020, while production in several non-OPEC countries is also starting to decline in response to lower oil prices. However, these supply cuts may be insufficient to offset the expected drop in oil demand in the near-term, potentially resulting in a further build in global oil inventories and more floating storage demand. The strength of the crude spot tanker market is likely to be determined by the relative balance between a decline in spot cargoes, and any rise in floating storage demand, and we anticipate that the spot tanker market will remain volatile in the near-term.
Looking further ahead, global oil demand is expected to begin recovering as lockdown restrictions start to be lifted across the globe from May 2020 onwards. However, the pace and strength of this recovery is highly uncertain. OPEC+ supply cuts are expected to remain in place throughout 2020 into 2021, although OPEC+ has indicated that the cuts may reduce over time. As global oil supply and demand adjust, we may see a period of oil inventory destocking emerge, which may dampen tanker demand in the medium-term. The redelivery of vessels from floating storage into the spot trading fleet may also negatively impact crude tanker spot rates later in 2020 and into 2021
The first quarter of 2020 started on a relatively strong note, as positive supply and demand fundamentals existing during the fourth quarter of 2019 continued into the early part of the year. However, crude tanker spot rates gradually softened through the course of January 2020 due to lower demand ahead of Chinese New Year, and weakened further during February 2020 as the COVID-19 outbreak began to impact Asian crude oil imports.
The tanker market improved quickly during March 2020 with the collapse of the OPEC+ supply agreement and subsequent price war waged by Saudi Arabia and Russia. Both countries increased production substantially during March and April 2020, resulting in higher crude oil exports and increased shipping demand. At the same time, global oil demand plummeted as lockdown restrictions were implemented in many parts of the world in order to halt the spread of the COVID-19 virus. This led to a significant mismatch between global oil supply and demand and a historic build in global oil inventories. The rapid build in inventories drove oil prices to multi-year lows and pushed the crude oil futures curve into a steep contango, which encouraged oil traders to charter ships for floating storage. The increasing number of tankers being utilized for storage led to a tightening of available fleet supply which, in combination with healthy cargo supply, resulted in increased tanker fleet utilization. As a result, mid-size tanker spot rates during the first quarter of 2020 were the highest since 2008.
Crude tanker spot rates have remained firm at the beginning of the second quarter of 2020. However, the outlook for spot rates has become more uncertain. In the near-term, global oil supply is expected to decline substantially, which should result in fewer spot cargoes. The OPEC+ group of producers have announced record supply cuts of 9.7 million barrels per day ( mb/d ) starting in May 2020, with Saudi Arabia subsequently pledging to cut supply by a further 1 mb/d in June 2020, while production in several non-OPEC countries is also starting to decline in response to lower oil prices. However, these supply cuts may be insufficient to offset the expected drop in oil demand in the near-term, potentially resulting in a further build in global oil inventories and more floating storage demand. The strength of the crude spot tanker market is likely to be determined by the relative balance between a decline in spot cargoes, and any rise in floating storage demand, and we anticipate that the spot tanker market will remain volatile in the near-term.
Looking further ahead, global oil demand is expected to begin recovering as lockdown restrictions start to be lifted across the globe from May 2020 onwards. However, the pace and strength of this recovery is highly uncertain. OPEC+ supply cuts are expected to remain in place throughout 2020 into 2021, although OPEC+ has indicated that the cuts may reduce over time. As global oil supply and demand adjust, we may see a period of oil inventory destocking emerge, which may dampen tanker demand in the medium-term. The redelivery of vessels from floating storage into the spot trading fleet may also negatively impact crude tanker spot rates later in 2020 and into 2021
Sellised on analüütikud, kes kirjutavad 100lk raporteid:
Oih, nad ei maksa dividendi- 2 kvartalit tagasi ütlesid, et fookus võlg ja suu puhtaks dividendist enne 2021.
Oih, nad ei maksa dividendi- 2 kvartalit tagasi ütlesid, et fookus võlg ja suu puhtaks dividendist enne 2021.
Üks päris huvitav kommentaar S. A-ST.
Miks? Sest vaadates tema arvutusi ja olles ise lugenud viimasaste tulemuste kõnet, siis point on hea, miks hoida sellest eemale. TK ema lasi just TGP IDR sirgeks.
Comments816 | Following
I am looking to add some tanker shares and $TNK is one candidate.
I am already long $TNK, but let me be the devil's advocate :
1° Opex is very high ($10,000/day)
2° $TNK's fleet age is relatif high. There are 2 Suez & 8 Afras (i.e. 20%+ of the fleet) older than 15 years. The revolver credit specifies that no collateral value is given to 17.5 year old vessels (or older)
What will $TNK do ? Obviously a number of them (4 or 5 Afras) are still going for DD.in Q3.
The DD cost is rising for older vessels. In 2019 the 2004 built vessels went into DD and the total drydocking cost in 2019 was ...$46.3 million for 16 drydockings.
With a DD cost of $2.5 million for the 2.5 years to come, this is an extra cost of $2,739/day.
The 2004 vessels (5) need another DD in mid 2021! What will mgmt. do ?
It will be very difficult to find replacement candidates in the ideal group (i.e. 5-10 years old). This segment has +- 260 vessels.
Fewer vessels in the fleet immediately increases breakeven rates.
3° Interest rate for the leasing is high (7.5%) and there are no purchase options in the near future.
There was no impairment charge taken on the sale&lease back transactions (vessel value $519m vs $408m leasing commitments.)
4° My sensitivity analysis shows that $TNK needs $18,500/day in Q3 for the open days in order to be cash flow breakeven. But then in Q4 the breakeven rate falls to $13,000/day (no DD in the quarter).
5° LR2 all transport dirty crude oil. It will be very difficult to transfer them to the CPP market. (cost of cleaning - cost of 2 or 3 cargos below market - age of the vessels)
COMMENTS ARE WELLCOME. Thanks
23 May 2020, 11:25 AM
Miks? Sest vaadates tema arvutusi ja olles ise lugenud viimasaste tulemuste kõnet, siis point on hea, miks hoida sellest eemale. TK ema lasi just TGP IDR sirgeks.
Comments816 | Following
I am looking to add some tanker shares and $TNK is one candidate.
I am already long $TNK, but let me be the devil's advocate :
1° Opex is very high ($10,000/day)
2° $TNK's fleet age is relatif high. There are 2 Suez & 8 Afras (i.e. 20%+ of the fleet) older than 15 years. The revolver credit specifies that no collateral value is given to 17.5 year old vessels (or older)
What will $TNK do ? Obviously a number of them (4 or 5 Afras) are still going for DD.in Q3.
The DD cost is rising for older vessels. In 2019 the 2004 built vessels went into DD and the total drydocking cost in 2019 was ...$46.3 million for 16 drydockings.
With a DD cost of $2.5 million for the 2.5 years to come, this is an extra cost of $2,739/day.
The 2004 vessels (5) need another DD in mid 2021! What will mgmt. do ?
It will be very difficult to find replacement candidates in the ideal group (i.e. 5-10 years old). This segment has +- 260 vessels.
Fewer vessels in the fleet immediately increases breakeven rates.
3° Interest rate for the leasing is high (7.5%) and there are no purchase options in the near future.
There was no impairment charge taken on the sale&lease back transactions (vessel value $519m vs $408m leasing commitments.)
4° My sensitivity analysis shows that $TNK needs $18,500/day in Q3 for the open days in order to be cash flow breakeven. But then in Q4 the breakeven rate falls to $13,000/day (no DD in the quarter).
5° LR2 all transport dirty crude oil. It will be very difficult to transfer them to the CPP market. (cost of cleaning - cost of 2 or 3 cargos below market - age of the vessels)
COMMENTS ARE WELLCOME. Thanks
23 May 2020, 11:25 AM