REUTERS China stocks mixed after policy fears fuel wild ride [GRYMFHK]
By Andrew Torchia SHANGHAI, Jan 26 (Reuters) - Chinese stocks ended mixed on Friday after swinging wildly in response to fears that the government viewed the market's bull run as excessive and had decided to cool it down. In one of the most volatile days since its rally began last May, the benchmark Shanghai index <.SSEC> plunged 4.78 percent in the morning before rebounding to stand 1.70 percent higher 20 minutes before the close. It finished 0.88 percent up at 2,882.558 points, with losers narrowly outnumbering gainers 446 to 390. On Thursday the index dropped 3.96 percent, its biggest daily loss since last July. Turnover on Friday was heavy at 83.6 billion yuan ($10.8 billion), though down from 92.0 billion on Thursday. "The market's outlook for 2007 is still good," said Zhou Lin, analyst at Huatai Securities, citing strong economic growth and the approach of the Beijing Olympics in 2008, which could spur consumer spending and tourism as well as construction. But he added that in the short term, the market would remain vulnerable to more falls as investors took profits from last year's 130 percent surge. "Next week we could still see drops as big as the ones yesterday and today," Zhou said. Technical signals were mixed. The index's rebound above its 14-day average at 2,832, support since mid-August, was positive. But extreme volatility often presages the end of a bull run, while 14-day momentum has been trending down throughout this month, implying the rally may be losing steam. The early tumble on Friday was caused by signs that authorities were prepared to take a series of measures to cool stocks in order to avoid the formation of a dangerous bubble. China will set up an information network to monitor state-owned enterprises' stock investments, the official China Securities Journal quoted Li Rongrong, head of the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, as saying. This measure in itself was not expected to have much impact on money flowing into stocks. But on Thursday a senior economic official warned investors about risks, and regulators told banks to enforce a ban on personal loans flowing into stocks. In addition, higher-than-expected December inflation data on Thursday fuelled speculation about a possible acceleration in the central bank's monetary tightening. In response, some individual investors visited fund management companies in Shanghai on Friday to ask if they could withdraw money from fund products. Also dampening sentiment was an interview with Chinese state television by Jim Rogers, a prominent U.S. fund manager who co-founded the Quantum hedge fund with George Soros in the 1970s. Rogers said there were signs the market was overheated and this might not be the best time to buy stocks. But in the late afternoon newly created mutual funds, which remain far from fully invested in the market, began to buy second-tier stocks believed to have good earnings prospects. The rally accelerated as Minsheng Bank <600016.SS>, a mid-sized bank, rose its 10 percent daily limit to a new record high of 12.84 yuan. Merchants Bank <600036.SS><3968.HK>, which recently estimated 2006 profit jumped over 50 percent, climbed 6.59 percent to 19.24 yuan. Many investors continued to shun the large-cap stocks that had previously led the bull run. Industrial & Commercial Bank of China <601398.SS><1398.HK> closed 0.38 percent lower at 5.26 yuan, though it came well off a low of 4.90. About 2.35 billion of the A shares issued in its IPO last year will be floated on Monday as a lock-up period ends. China Life <601628.SS><2628.HK> was off 1.42 percent at 40.26 yuan after tumbling 6.97 percent on Thursday. China Vanke <000002.SZ>, the largest listed property developer, surged 5.27 percent to 18.58 yuan as investors returned to top-quality property stocks after dumping them last week on news that a land appreciation tax would be enforced. A spectacular debut by a small Shanghai stock showed speculative interest in the market remained very much alive. Gem-Year Industrial Co. <601002.SS> soared 109.86 percent from its IPO price to 8.94 yuan as it began trading.
Koledal kombel meenutab tänane liikumine 1929. aasta USA börsikrahhi. Krahh toimus esmaspäeval ning kukkumine oli üle 10%, samas eelneval neljapäeval oli toimunud sarnane langus, mis päeva peale üles osteti ja Dow vist suutis isegi plussis lõpetada.
PBOC to bolster role of interest rate adjustments Last Updated(Beijing Time):2007-02-11 10:06
China's central bank said interest rate adjustments would play a greater role in monetary macro-control as it warned of increased inflationary pressure. "We'll make use of the interest rate tool and let the price lever play a bigger role in monetary policy," said the central bank in a quarterly monetary policy report released on Friday.
It said risks of price hikes have multiplied and inflationary pressures are building.
China's consumer price index hit a 20-month high last November, reaching 1.9 percent, and surged to 2.8 percent in December.
A survey of depositors conducted by the central bank in the fourth quarter of 2006 showed citizens fear further price hikes.
Pinge USD/CNY peale ilmselt aina tugevneb. JPY tõus rõhutab veelgi CNY odavust, ja meelitab USD CNY vastu vahetamist. Hiinas tekib probleeme rahapakkumise tõusuga, ja valitsus püüab soodustada tarbimist investeerimise arvelt. Maailma turud on hakkanud ennustama 1) kõrgemat inflatsiooni ja 2) kõrgemat intresse nii Hiinas kui Jaapanis. Järelikult voolab kapital sinna, valuutade atraktiivsus tõuseb, aga muude varade atraktiivsus väheneb intresside tõttu. Järgmine samm peaks olema inflatsiooni eksport idast läände, ehk pikaajaliselt kõrged intressid ka siin. Nii võiks ülelikviidsus aegamööda väheneda. Oodata on tarbimisbuum mitte Ameerikas (ja Rootsis/Eestis jne) vaid Hiinas, Jaapanis ja äkki teatud määral nt Saksamaal. Keskpankadel on alati võimalik alla anda, aga eeldusel et mitte, siis peaksid suhe varahinnad/tarbimishinnad langema tagasi pärast mitut aastat tõusu.
BOJ intressitõus mis oli umbes 50% tõenäosusega oodatud äkki põhjustas viimaste nädalate languse ajastust. BOJ on maailma likviidsuse nõrgim lüli, mis nüüd aga tundub olevat tugevnemas.
Uudis tänases Postimehes: Hiina kaotab välismaiste firmade maksusoodustused (sisu: maksud tõstetakse välisfirmadele seniselt 15% pealt 25% peale). Artikkel ise siin (tehke palun keegi lingiks): http://www.postimees.ee/070307/esileht/majandus/248630.php
Ma arvan, et LHV foorumis on vähevõitu Hiina stokkpikkidest juttu. Ise olen Hiina turul sees American Dairyga (ADY), milles täna positsioone täiendasin.
USA-ga seob firmat küll enim selle nimi. Ettevõte tegutseb Hiina piimasektoris ning peamisteks tegevusvaldkondadest on piima- ja sojapulbri tootmine, kuid rihitakse ka kõrgema marginaaliga piimatoodete poole (jogurtid jms.). Kasumi- ning käibenumbrid on viimastel aastatel jõudsalt kasvanud, täpsemad numbrid saab näiteks Yahoost kätte.
Aasta 2006 Q4 tulemusi veel pole, kuid EPS-i prognoosid jäävad 1,13-1,18 USD kanti, mis annaks P/E suhte 16-17 vahel. Vaadates kasvu viimastel aastatel ning nentides, et tegu on Hiina siseturule suunatud ettevõttega, peaks see valuatsioon olema suhtelisel atraktiivne. Kuivõrd peaks firma müügitulu olema RMB-s, siis asjaolu, et aktsia hind on noteeritud USD-s, ei tohiks dollari suhtes valuutariski tekitada.
Natuke keerutab tolmu üles ka fakt, et ühest küljest on piimasektor riiklikul tasemel soositud, kuna tahetakse tervislikuma toitumise nimel piimatoodete osa hiinlaste menüüs suurendada ja piimasektoris kehtivad teatud maksusoodustused. Firma ise väike ning analüütikute vaatevälja eriti ei jõua, seega riskid arvestatavad.
China's inflation hit 2.7% in February Last Updated(Beijing Time):2007-03-13 15:42
Inflation in China reached 2.7 percent in February, official statistics showed Tuesday, increasing the pressure on the central bank to raise the interest rate. Consumer price index, a key indicator of inflation, rose 2.7 percent year-on-year last month, up from the 2.2 percent growth in January, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said in a report on its website.
A consumer shops at a super market in Shanghai January 10, 2007. Inflation in China might reach a two-year high in February, according to a poll of 21 economists by Bloomberg News, increasing the pressure on the central bank to raise interest rate. [newsphoto] The price hike was mainly driven by rising food costs. Food prices surged six percent in February while non-food items rose just one percent, said the NBS. Among the food items, eggs and edible oil witnessed the biggest rises. They grew 30 percent and 17.4 percent, respectively.
The rural areas saw a bigger price increase than the urban areas, the report said, with a 3.2 percent growth for the farmers against a 2.5 per cent rise for the urbanites.
The combined increase for the first two month of the year is 2.4 percent. The People's Bank of China, the central bank, has set an annual target of 3 percent for inflation control.
The February figure was a sharp increase from the 1.5 percent rise in 2006, but slightly lower than the growth of 2.8 in last December.
The holiday generally distorts economic figures. China's biggest festival, the Lunar New Year fell in the middle of February this year and in mid-January last year.
Central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan pledged to fight inflation Monday during a press conference on the sidelines of the annual session of the country's top legislature.
The current interest rate was appropriate, said central bank's vice governor Wu Xiaoling Sunday, according to reports. However, when asked about this issue again Monday, she refused to talk.
Ha Jiming, chief economist at China International Capital Corp. in Beijing, expected the central bank to raise the interest rate if finding the combined inflation number in January and February above 2.5 percent, according to the Bloomberg News.
However, an interest rate rise is expected to attract more "hot money" into China, said analysts, adding to the excess liquidity plaguing the central bank.
Reining in excess liquidity is a priority of Beijing's monetary policy, said Wu Xiaoling in an article published by the People's Daily in February. However, interest rate could hardly contribute to this end, said Wu.
At current inflation rates, after-tax bank deposit rates are negative in real terms, inviting depositors to withdraw their cash and pump it into property and stocks, raising the risk of asset price bubbles.
The central bank in February ordered lenders to set aside more money as reserves for the fifth time in eight months. Lenders must set aside 10 percent of deposits, up from 9.5 percent.
The central bank has raised its benchmark interest rate twice since April. The current one-year benchmark lending rate stood at 6.12 percent.
At the press conference on Monday, Zhou Xiaochuan sought to reassure investors that the domestic stock market was not in the middle of a downward trend and that the country would increase the part direct financing played in the financial system.
He also said the country would build the market in line with international standards so "people ... can better cope with any changes."
Zhou said other countries, including the United States, also suffer from problems caused by excess liquidity.
He added that market regulators should adopt a prudent and "slightly tightened" policy.
Hiina on tõstnud intresse nädalavahetusel. Muresid on palju, aga arvan et kõige suurem on toiduhindade inflatsioon. Hoolimata suurte varude väljamüügist on hinnatõus jätkunund.
Inimestel üha rohkem raha, reaaltoodang läheb aga välismaale.
Siiamaani on Hiina intressiotsuseid olnud vähema tähtsusega börsidele. Seekord äkki võimalik et seda arvestatakse.
www.bloomberg.com " China Calls U.S. Paper Duties `Unacceptable,' May Respond By Eugene Tang and Mark Drajem March 31 (Bloomberg) -- China's commerce ministry said U.S. tariffs on imports of coated paper from the nation are unacceptable and it reserves the right to take ``necessary'' action, signaling the dispute may escalate. "
Nagu globaliseerumine on vähendanud inflatsiooni ja intresse, toimib protektsionism vastupidi.
Hiina tõstis täna jälle pankade reservnõuet. Endiselt on vist enamik pankadest niikuinii sellelt tasemelt üleval, aga selge et üha tihedamini tuleb likviiduse kärpimise uudised Hiinast. Eks suur osa sellest rahast mis maailmas prinditakse, tuleb lõpuks Hiina keskpanga poolt kokku osta, kusjuures sealne rahapakkumine tõuseb reaaltoodangust kiiremini. Vastumeetmeks müüakse võlakirju, mis on aga muutunud neile ka keerulisemaks. Ma ei imestaks kui Hiinas on inflatsioonipomm, sel juhul maailmamajandusele väga kaugeleulatuvad tagajärjed, siis kui Hiina tarbijate käitumine muutub.
China's trade surplus probably almost doubled in March, adding to friction that may prompt the US to file a World Trade Organization complaint as early as this week.
The gap swelled to $20 billion from $11.2 billion a year earlier, according to the median estimate of 18 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The figures may be released as early as today.
US lawmakers charge that China keeps its currency undervalued, protects piracy and subsidizes products sold overseas. The Commerce Department last month levied duties on coated paper imports from China and the government may file a WTO complaint over what it calls piracy of copyrighted movies and books, according to four people briefed by the Bush administration. ... China's trade surplus has created problems at home by pumping cash into the economy, fueling inflation and investment in unneeded factories and real estate.
M2, the broadest measure of money supply in China, likely increased 17 percent in March from a year earlier, the Bloomberg News survey showed.
The government last week ordered banks to set aside more money as reserves for the sixth time in less than a year. Last month the central bank raised interest rates to an eight-year high.
The yuan rose last week, taking its gain to 7.2 percent since a decade-long peg to the US dollar was scrapped in July 2005.
China's Trade Surplus Unexpectedly Narrowed in March (Update2) By Nipa Piboontanasawat April 10 (Bloomberg) -- China's trade surplus unexpectedly narrowed in March as exports rose at the slowest pace in five years. The gap was 38 percent smaller than a year earlier at $6.87 billion, the customs bureau said on its Web site. That's the least in 13 months and less than half the $20 billion median estimate of 18 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Chinese businesses rushed to sell products overseas in January and February, concerned at protectionist sentiment abroad and government moves to slow exports, said Wang Qing, an economist at Bank of America Corp. in Hong Kong. ``It's more important to look at the first quarter as a whole, which is a really large trade surplus,'' said Wang. China wants to curb the trade surplus, which rose to a record $177.5 billion last year, by easing import restrictions and reducing export incentives. The gap has stoked trade frictions that include two complaints by the U.S. to the World Trade Organization, due to be filed today. Exports gained 6.9 percent to $83.4 billion in March and imports climbed 14.5 percent to $76.6 billion. For the first three months, the surplus was $46.44 billion, nearly double the gap a year earlier.
(ei mäleta millal, aga) Hiina on viimasel ajal ka tõstnud välisfirmade tulumaksumäära (mis oli varem hiina firmadest soodsam). Võimalik et ekspordimahud enne seda tõusid, ja et kaupade hinnastamine pärast seda on muutunud, et vähendada Hiinas tekkivad kasumeid.
Juba kaua aega kõrgendatud suhe varahinnad/kaubahinnad said lööki tänase Hiina statistika poolt. Inflatsioon on hakkanud jooksma kiire rahapakkumistõusu abil, selle kärpimeine aga nõuab kõrgemaid intresse mis koos juba tehtud üleinvesteeringud ohustavad varahindu. Arvata võib, et Hiina keskpank tõstab jälle mõne nädala pärast.
Inflatsioon Hiinas on tohutult oluline maailma finantsturgusele, ma arvan. Kuigi Hiina valitsus võiks olema valmis kaua veel koguma reserve, võib Hiina tavainimeste soov hoiustada järsult lõppeda kui inflatsioon tõuseb. Hiina sisemaine tarbimise tõus peaks olema jõuks, mis maailmainflatsiooni oluliselt mõjutab.