"The supply of low-cost labor, widely considered to be fueling China's sizzling economy, could start drying up as early as 2010, a report warns.
One of the biggest reasons for the potential shortage is that the rural labor force may not be as large as previously thought, the report, issued by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences on Thursday, says."
"The number of redundant workers below the age of 40 in rural areas is only about 52 million in absolute terms, far less than the estimated 100-150 million..."
http://www.chinadaily.cn/china/2007-05/12/content_870971.htm
Tundub, et Hiina on liiga aeglane intressitõstmistega:
"May 13 (Bloomberg) -- China's money supply growth exceeded the government target for a third month and lending accelerated, adding pressure on the central bank to raise interest rates.
M2, which includes cash and all deposits, rose 17.1 percent in April from a year earlier, the People's Bank of China said on its Web site today, after gaining 17.3 percent in March. That beat the 17 percent median estimate of 19 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News and the central bank's 2007 target of 16 percent. "
...
"With the benchmark one-year deposit rate at 2.79 percent, Chinese households, concerned that they are losing money on savings held at banks, have rushed into the stock markets. The benchmark CSI 300 Index has jumped 81 percent since the start of this year. "
"May 13 (Bloomberg) -- China's money supply growth exceeded the government target for a third month and lending accelerated, adding pressure on the central bank to raise interest rates.
M2, which includes cash and all deposits, rose 17.1 percent in April from a year earlier, the People's Bank of China said on its Web site today, after gaining 17.3 percent in March. That beat the 17 percent median estimate of 19 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News and the central bank's 2007 target of 16 percent. "
...
"With the benchmark one-year deposit rate at 2.79 percent, Chinese households, concerned that they are losing money on savings held at banks, have rushed into the stock markets. The benchmark CSI 300 Index has jumped 81 percent since the start of this year. "
Aprillis Hiina M1 +20% ja toiduainete inflatsioon 7% (kogu-CPI 3%). Peaks tähendama sisenõudluse jõuline tõus lähiajal. USD/CNY on ka lubatud kiiremini tõusta viimastel päevadel, ja ilmselt intressitõstmisi on tulemas. Eeldused loodud suureks inflatsiooniks, mis võib kõigutada maailmamajandust.
Hiina tõstab siis täna intresse, ja laiendab CNY kauplemisriba.
Arvan et inflatsioon on neil suur probleem, ja see esialgu kuhugi ära ei kao, kui raha muudkui voolab sisse. Lubatakse edaspidi ka ilmselt kiiremat CNY tõusmist.
Arvan et inflatsioon on neil suur probleem, ja see esialgu kuhugi ära ei kao, kui raha muudkui voolab sisse. Lubatakse edaspidi ka ilmselt kiiremat CNY tõusmist.
"Household deposits decreased by 167.4 billion yuan (US$21.7 billion) in April, compared with an increase of 60.6 billion yuan (US$7.9 billion) during the same time last year, the central bank said on Sunday. Analysts expect a substantial part of money may have flowed into the stock market.
A total of 4.79 million new A-share trading accounts were opened in April, more than the combined total for the previous two years, according to statistics from the China Securities Depository and Clearing Corporation."
http://en.ce.cn/Business/Macro-economic/200705/18/t20070518_11412168.shtml
A total of 4.79 million new A-share trading accounts were opened in April, more than the combined total for the previous two years, according to statistics from the China Securities Depository and Clearing Corporation."
http://en.ce.cn/Business/Macro-economic/200705/18/t20070518_11412168.shtml
Hoolimata PBOC järjekordset intressitõstmist ja reservnõude tõstmist reedel hakkas Shanghai index, pärast 3% kukkumist hommikul, jälle tõusma ja lõpetas päeva plussis. M1 tõus 20% koos isegi väheneva eraisikute hoiusemahuga, tundub mulle selge indikaatorina, et inflatsiooni lumepall on hakkanud veerema, ja vaevalt esialgu ei peatu. Võib lõppeda uue valuutakriisiga Aasias, dollarite väljamüük ja ühised intresside-inflatsiooni-probleem Aasias ja Ameerikas. Hiina investeering Blackstone-sse indikeerib sama.
Peaks olema uskumatult raske võidelda inflatsiooniga Hiinas, kui ta on ükskord kanda kinnitanud, ja reaaltulemuseks jääb rohkem maailmaresursside tarbimist Hiinas, ja vähem mujal. Kaubandusülejääk Ameerikaga võib koos palgatõstmisega esialgu tõusma, aga kaupade maht väheneb, ja aegamööda ülejääk ka. Euroopas võib ennustada tugevamat euro ja kõrgemaid impordihindu.
Peaks olema uskumatult raske võidelda inflatsiooniga Hiinas, kui ta on ükskord kanda kinnitanud, ja reaaltulemuseks jääb rohkem maailmaresursside tarbimist Hiinas, ja vähem mujal. Kaubandusülejääk Ameerikaga võib koos palgatõstmisega esialgu tõusma, aga kaupade maht väheneb, ja aegamööda ülejääk ka. Euroopas võib ennustada tugevamat euro ja kõrgemaid impordihindu.
Kui paljudel hiinlastel juba on A-aktsiate konto?
Viis miljonit kuus on ikka väga suur number. Selleks, et turg saaks samas tempos edasi tõusta peaks mais rohkem kontosid lisanduma. Huvitav oleks näha statistikat 2007 jaanuarist alates.
Viis miljonit kuus on ikka väga suur number. Selleks, et turg saaks samas tempos edasi tõusta peaks mais rohkem kontosid lisanduma. Huvitav oleks näha statistikat 2007 jaanuarist alates.
Shanghai Börsi indeks räägib selget keelt palju raha sisse on voolanud:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=000001.SS
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=000001.SS
Huvitav, kas Shanghai börsil on lõunavaheaeg sees? Vaatan, et kella 11:30-13:00 tühimik? Või on muud pähjused? Hiina RV ikkagi.
Artikkel Hiina tõusust ja maavarade tarbimisest
http://www.sprott.com/pdf/marketsataglance/04-2007.pdf
http://www.sprott.com/pdf/marketsataglance/04-2007.pdf
Panen siia üles ühe loo realmoney kirjamehe Tom Au poolt. Minu arust päris hea võrdlus USAga aastal 1929 ja praeguse Hiina olukorra vahel. Lisaks mõningad mahlakad faktid siin:
By Tom Au
23.05.2007
As the world's largest holder of dollars, the People's Bank of China is now the world's de facto central bank. That's a scary thought because China is a nouveau riche nation that is not ready for a principal role in global economy. But in 1929, the United States was similarly a parvenu, a country that held 50% of the world's monetary reserves (in the form of gold), even though its central bank, the Fed, was all of 16 years old; this adolescent outfit had been created only in 1913 after the passage of the Sixteenth Amendment to the Constitution.
Are China and the U.S. Siamese Twins?
Moreover, China is facing the essentially same dilemma today as America did in 1929. The United States in the 1920s flooded the world with liquidity in order to hold down a fundamentally strong dollar and prop up a weak pound at the behest of Britain's central banker, Montague Norman, and a Treasury Minister named Winston Churchill (who failed at everything he did in public life before winning World War II). China has been similarly accommodative until recently to support the weak U.S. dollar, despite making heroic efforts to "sterilize" these dollars. But some of the liquidity inevitably found its way into the Chinese and global economies, helping to bring about torrid (and probably unsustainable) double-digit percentage growth in China.
This growth is also taking place in a relatively unbalanced fashion. For instance, Chinese consumer spending growth is only about half of industrial spending growth -- in the mid-teens. The high single-digit percentage difference has to be made up by exports, which led to the problems just alluded to -- i.e., large trade surpluses for China and large trade deficits for the U.S., causing major imbalances for both countries. If the trend continues, via more deals like the Chinese buying of a $3 billion stake in Blackstone, they could become "Siamese twins," the original of whom were literally joined at the hip and impossible to separate without killing one or the other. More likely, excess capacity in industrial goods would lead to an economic bust in China, at about the same time that the U.S. came from downward pressure on consumer spending because of the collapse of the housing bubble.
Runaway Growth Could Hurt China's Infrastructure
Such runaway growth is also threatening to overwhelm China's relatively primitive commercial and physical infrastructure. The country has some of the most modern industries in the world, side-by-side with Stalin-era state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and a banking system that has to serve both sectors. Accounting is equally sporadic -- state-of-the art in a few instances, archaic in most others -- meaning that only a few companies can really be sure about what they are earning. World-class economic officials exist at the highest levels of the government, alongside corrupt local bosses that threaten to derail the economy for their own ends. And even the smooth functioning of basic utilities can't be taken for granted, given periodic brownouts in major cities.
Bubble Conditions in the Chinese Stock Market
As a result, the Chinese stock market is waking up from a long slumber. One to two million brokerage accounts are being opened every week in China. Even with a population of 1.3 billion, 100 million brokerage accounts a year would mean that 50% of China's population would have such an account only six and a half years from now. (It took over a century for America to achieve that level of penetration.) What's more, these accounts are being opened by all the usual suspects of a market top, "cab drivers, house cleaners, college students, and Buddhist monks," according to Adam Shell of USA Today. Meanwhile, Chinese stocks are now selling at 30x to 40x earnings -- bubble levels. And the passage of new legislation to allow Chinese to invest overseas may give a temporary lift to other markets, including that of the United States. That's not a comforting thought, given the lack of sophistication of investors like those just noted, because the change of stock ownership that we're now seeing is called distribution. We've seen this movie before.
Trying to Cool the Economy
It's easy to say with the benefit of hindsight that the U.S. Fed erred in keeping monetary policy too tight in the 1930s. But that came about because the Fed was too loose in the 1920s, as has been the case in the 1990s, and so far this decade. And the most immediate threat in the Western world prior to 1929 was the German hyperinflation of the early 1920s, which destroyed the German economy and middle class and ultimately brought Hitler to power. It was in avoiding the Scylla of such inflation, that the Fed opted for the Charybdis of deflation; in tennis lingo, that was a forced error. China had a similar, and first-hand, experience with hyperinflation in 1949. More than anything else, it brought the present (communist) government into power. With that heritage, China is going to err on the side of tightness. In fact, the country is using all three major monetary tools -- open market operations, raising discount rates and raising reserve requirements -- in a concerted effort to cool down its economy. Such a confluence of policies is seldom seen in the Western world.
It's possible that a more seasoned Fed in the 1930s might have barely avoided the depression that resulted from the 1929 crash. But to hold the 1930s Fed to the elevated standards of today would have been too much to ask. (When was the last time parents you know tore out their hair because their teenager was incapable of acting like an adult?) Likewise, more experienced hands at the helm of the People's Bank of China might possibly avoid the oncoming bubble and crash. But that is asking a lot of an institution and country that are just beginning to make the transition from communism to capitalism.
People's Bank of China Lacks Experience
The problem with experience, someone once said, is that it comes along only after you need it most. The American central bank has experience, but it's not the one needing it. The Chinese central bank is now in the driver's seat and hasn't yet had experience come along. It's about as seasoned today as America's Benjamin Strong-led Fed was just before 1929. More to the point, it's not about to listen to the U.S. because we are a major part of the problem in other respects.
Out of America's Control
I believe that China is setting a massive tightening of the global money supply in progress, and that this tightening could soon be followed by a global depression. Either event may happen or ultimately fail to happen. But in either case, it is basically out of America's control. Like a lot of other goods that Americans now import, the modern 1929 (or a better outcome) will have been "Made in China."
By Tom Au
23.05.2007
As the world's largest holder of dollars, the People's Bank of China is now the world's de facto central bank. That's a scary thought because China is a nouveau riche nation that is not ready for a principal role in global economy. But in 1929, the United States was similarly a parvenu, a country that held 50% of the world's monetary reserves (in the form of gold), even though its central bank, the Fed, was all of 16 years old; this adolescent outfit had been created only in 1913 after the passage of the Sixteenth Amendment to the Constitution.
Are China and the U.S. Siamese Twins?
Moreover, China is facing the essentially same dilemma today as America did in 1929. The United States in the 1920s flooded the world with liquidity in order to hold down a fundamentally strong dollar and prop up a weak pound at the behest of Britain's central banker, Montague Norman, and a Treasury Minister named Winston Churchill (who failed at everything he did in public life before winning World War II). China has been similarly accommodative until recently to support the weak U.S. dollar, despite making heroic efforts to "sterilize" these dollars. But some of the liquidity inevitably found its way into the Chinese and global economies, helping to bring about torrid (and probably unsustainable) double-digit percentage growth in China.
This growth is also taking place in a relatively unbalanced fashion. For instance, Chinese consumer spending growth is only about half of industrial spending growth -- in the mid-teens. The high single-digit percentage difference has to be made up by exports, which led to the problems just alluded to -- i.e., large trade surpluses for China and large trade deficits for the U.S., causing major imbalances for both countries. If the trend continues, via more deals like the Chinese buying of a $3 billion stake in Blackstone, they could become "Siamese twins," the original of whom were literally joined at the hip and impossible to separate without killing one or the other. More likely, excess capacity in industrial goods would lead to an economic bust in China, at about the same time that the U.S. came from downward pressure on consumer spending because of the collapse of the housing bubble.
Runaway Growth Could Hurt China's Infrastructure
Such runaway growth is also threatening to overwhelm China's relatively primitive commercial and physical infrastructure. The country has some of the most modern industries in the world, side-by-side with Stalin-era state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and a banking system that has to serve both sectors. Accounting is equally sporadic -- state-of-the art in a few instances, archaic in most others -- meaning that only a few companies can really be sure about what they are earning. World-class economic officials exist at the highest levels of the government, alongside corrupt local bosses that threaten to derail the economy for their own ends. And even the smooth functioning of basic utilities can't be taken for granted, given periodic brownouts in major cities.
Bubble Conditions in the Chinese Stock Market
As a result, the Chinese stock market is waking up from a long slumber. One to two million brokerage accounts are being opened every week in China. Even with a population of 1.3 billion, 100 million brokerage accounts a year would mean that 50% of China's population would have such an account only six and a half years from now. (It took over a century for America to achieve that level of penetration.) What's more, these accounts are being opened by all the usual suspects of a market top, "cab drivers, house cleaners, college students, and Buddhist monks," according to Adam Shell of USA Today. Meanwhile, Chinese stocks are now selling at 30x to 40x earnings -- bubble levels. And the passage of new legislation to allow Chinese to invest overseas may give a temporary lift to other markets, including that of the United States. That's not a comforting thought, given the lack of sophistication of investors like those just noted, because the change of stock ownership that we're now seeing is called distribution. We've seen this movie before.
Trying to Cool the Economy
It's easy to say with the benefit of hindsight that the U.S. Fed erred in keeping monetary policy too tight in the 1930s. But that came about because the Fed was too loose in the 1920s, as has been the case in the 1990s, and so far this decade. And the most immediate threat in the Western world prior to 1929 was the German hyperinflation of the early 1920s, which destroyed the German economy and middle class and ultimately brought Hitler to power. It was in avoiding the Scylla of such inflation, that the Fed opted for the Charybdis of deflation; in tennis lingo, that was a forced error. China had a similar, and first-hand, experience with hyperinflation in 1949. More than anything else, it brought the present (communist) government into power. With that heritage, China is going to err on the side of tightness. In fact, the country is using all three major monetary tools -- open market operations, raising discount rates and raising reserve requirements -- in a concerted effort to cool down its economy. Such a confluence of policies is seldom seen in the Western world.
It's possible that a more seasoned Fed in the 1930s might have barely avoided the depression that resulted from the 1929 crash. But to hold the 1930s Fed to the elevated standards of today would have been too much to ask. (When was the last time parents you know tore out their hair because their teenager was incapable of acting like an adult?) Likewise, more experienced hands at the helm of the People's Bank of China might possibly avoid the oncoming bubble and crash. But that is asking a lot of an institution and country that are just beginning to make the transition from communism to capitalism.
People's Bank of China Lacks Experience
The problem with experience, someone once said, is that it comes along only after you need it most. The American central bank has experience, but it's not the one needing it. The Chinese central bank is now in the driver's seat and hasn't yet had experience come along. It's about as seasoned today as America's Benjamin Strong-led Fed was just before 1929. More to the point, it's not about to listen to the U.S. because we are a major part of the problem in other respects.
Out of America's Control
I believe that China is setting a massive tightening of the global money supply in progress, and that this tightening could soon be followed by a global depression. Either event may happen or ultimately fail to happen. But in either case, it is basically out of America's control. Like a lot of other goods that Americans now import, the modern 1929 (or a better outcome) will have been "Made in China."
Huvitav lugemine. Eks olukord on kaua olnud tasakaalus väljas, aga see mis just viimasel ajal on pannud "lumepall veerema" peaks olema väärtpaberikontode arvu tõus, ja toiduainete hindade tõus - ühesõnaga skeptilisus CNY vastu. Imestan, et EUR pole viimastel päevadel tugevnenud edasi.
MORGAN STANLEY CHINA (CAF) kukkus Greenspani jutu peale 37 USD pealt 36 USD alla kiirelt ... tegu 1 vähese Hiina A aktsiatele ligipääsu võimaldava börsil kaubeldava fondiga
2006. aasta lõpu 15% preemia asemel kaubeldakse täna 15% allahindlusega NAV suhtes
2006. aasta lõpu 15% preemia asemel kaubeldakse täna 15% allahindlusega NAV suhtes
BEIJING (Reuters) - Beijing pawnshop owner Xu Wei is rushed off his feet as people flock to his gleaming store, pledging cars, valuables and even houses in exchange for quick cash to bet on China's booming stock market.
"The stock market is so bullish. The money people make each day on the stock market is much, much more than the interest they pay to us," said Xu, who lends at up to 10 times the official bank rate.
That's what has policymakers nervous. Days after calling the market a bubble, Central Bank Governor Zhou Xiaochuan raised deposit rates on Friday to try to staunch a flood of money out of bank accounts and into equities.
But the higher rates are no deterrent given that China's main stock index has more than tripled in 18 months and is up 55 percent since the start of 2007.
If you don't have cash in the bank to start with, you can probably borrow it. Chinese banks are prohibited from lending money to buy equities, but there are big loopholes.
Some big banks have signed pacts with state-owned companies enabling staff with secure jobs to take out unsecured loans of as much as 200,000 yuan ($26,300) for up to a year, bankers said.
Hua Chao works for one such firm. He borrowed 150,000 yuan from a bank last week and quickly moved it into his brokerage account.
"I only need to pay 9,000 yuan interest for the loan I got, but I think I can make at least 70,000 yuan a year by investing that money in stocks," Hua, an office worker, said.
"So why not? I see almost no risk."
FRENZY
Investors without easy access to bank credit or with nothing valuable to pawn can always turn to friends or relatives.
Yan Dong, who works in an advertising agency, borrowed 200,000 yuan from his parents-in-law and cousins in February.
After two and a half months of successful punting, Yan had doubled his money. He paid back his relatives and is now playing the market with 200,000 yuan of his own cash.
Hua and Yan are just two out of millions of people who have been swept up in China's stock market frenzy.
At last week's African Development Bank meeting in Shanghai, some young Chinese reporters paid more attention to fast-moving stock quotes on their laptops than to ministerial speeches.
Laid-off workers have become day traders, glued to big screens at smoke-filled city-centre brokerages. Foreign students, trading through their Chinese friends, are dabbling.
State media reported that some companies in Shanghai are even setting aside an hour every day for employees to trade shares.
Chinese investors tend to buy the market, rather than particular sectors or stocks, and more than 78 percent of all A shares have doubled in price since Jan. 4.
As befits a feverish market, retail investors like smaller, speculative stocks. Blue-chips, by contrast, have been relative laggards.
Zhejiang Hangxiao Steel Structure Co. shares have risen eightfold this year to 26.09 yuan despite it being fined for improper disclosure of big contracts from Angola.
Consumer stocks are hot -- LMZ Co., a toothpaste maker, is up fivefold. Other big gainers are Jilin Chemical Fiber Group and transport firm Shanghai Ba-shi Group, up more than four and five times respectively.
Official figures show nearly 99 percent of China's 90 million brokerage accounts are held by individuals, accounting for almost 60 percent of the $2 trillion capitalisation of the domestic A-share market.
As separate accounts are needed for the Shanghai and Shenzhen bourses, there might be 50 million individual investors in all, said Zhu Jianfang, an economist at China Securities in Beijing.
With several family members probably standing behind each account, Zhu estimated that at least 12 percent of China's 1.3 billion people now have a stake in the stock market's health.
FLOCKS OF SHEEP
Yu Yongding, a former central bank adviser, calls this the "sheep flock effect".
"Once the stock bubble bursts, it will have an immeasurable impact on the economy and social stability," Yu wrote in Monday's China Securities Journal.
China's market is now worth more than 70 percent of its gross domestic product, well above its 2001 level of 15 percent.
However, the pain would be concentrated among small investors, especially those from the most vulnerable groups such as farmers, cooks and factory workers, he added.
A crash would also mean a new crop of bad bank loans.
"I think an impressive proportion of bank loans must have been used to punt on the stock market, although it is hard to measure exactly how much," said Yuan Dejun, an economist at China Galaxy Securities in Beijing.
Despite the growing worries and the central bank tightening, the main Shanghai index scaled new heights on Wednesday, gaining 1.18 percent.
"I'm pretty sure that the boom will last at least until the Olympic Games are over next year," Hua, the office worker, said.
"That's been the experience of other countries. So I can't be so stupid as to waste this chance. It won't come again."
"The stock market is so bullish. The money people make each day on the stock market is much, much more than the interest they pay to us," said Xu, who lends at up to 10 times the official bank rate.
That's what has policymakers nervous. Days after calling the market a bubble, Central Bank Governor Zhou Xiaochuan raised deposit rates on Friday to try to staunch a flood of money out of bank accounts and into equities.
But the higher rates are no deterrent given that China's main stock index has more than tripled in 18 months and is up 55 percent since the start of 2007.
If you don't have cash in the bank to start with, you can probably borrow it. Chinese banks are prohibited from lending money to buy equities, but there are big loopholes.
Some big banks have signed pacts with state-owned companies enabling staff with secure jobs to take out unsecured loans of as much as 200,000 yuan ($26,300) for up to a year, bankers said.
Hua Chao works for one such firm. He borrowed 150,000 yuan from a bank last week and quickly moved it into his brokerage account.
"I only need to pay 9,000 yuan interest for the loan I got, but I think I can make at least 70,000 yuan a year by investing that money in stocks," Hua, an office worker, said.
"So why not? I see almost no risk."
FRENZY
Investors without easy access to bank credit or with nothing valuable to pawn can always turn to friends or relatives.
Yan Dong, who works in an advertising agency, borrowed 200,000 yuan from his parents-in-law and cousins in February.
After two and a half months of successful punting, Yan had doubled his money. He paid back his relatives and is now playing the market with 200,000 yuan of his own cash.
Hua and Yan are just two out of millions of people who have been swept up in China's stock market frenzy.
At last week's African Development Bank meeting in Shanghai, some young Chinese reporters paid more attention to fast-moving stock quotes on their laptops than to ministerial speeches.
Laid-off workers have become day traders, glued to big screens at smoke-filled city-centre brokerages. Foreign students, trading through their Chinese friends, are dabbling.
State media reported that some companies in Shanghai are even setting aside an hour every day for employees to trade shares.
Chinese investors tend to buy the market, rather than particular sectors or stocks, and more than 78 percent of all A shares have doubled in price since Jan. 4.
As befits a feverish market, retail investors like smaller, speculative stocks. Blue-chips, by contrast, have been relative laggards.
Zhejiang Hangxiao Steel Structure Co. shares have risen eightfold this year to 26.09 yuan despite it being fined for improper disclosure of big contracts from Angola.
Consumer stocks are hot -- LMZ Co., a toothpaste maker, is up fivefold. Other big gainers are Jilin Chemical Fiber Group and transport firm Shanghai Ba-shi Group, up more than four and five times respectively.
Official figures show nearly 99 percent of China's 90 million brokerage accounts are held by individuals, accounting for almost 60 percent of the $2 trillion capitalisation of the domestic A-share market.
As separate accounts are needed for the Shanghai and Shenzhen bourses, there might be 50 million individual investors in all, said Zhu Jianfang, an economist at China Securities in Beijing.
With several family members probably standing behind each account, Zhu estimated that at least 12 percent of China's 1.3 billion people now have a stake in the stock market's health.
FLOCKS OF SHEEP
Yu Yongding, a former central bank adviser, calls this the "sheep flock effect".
"Once the stock bubble bursts, it will have an immeasurable impact on the economy and social stability," Yu wrote in Monday's China Securities Journal.
China's market is now worth more than 70 percent of its gross domestic product, well above its 2001 level of 15 percent.
However, the pain would be concentrated among small investors, especially those from the most vulnerable groups such as farmers, cooks and factory workers, he added.
A crash would also mean a new crop of bad bank loans.
"I think an impressive proportion of bank loans must have been used to punt on the stock market, although it is hard to measure exactly how much," said Yuan Dejun, an economist at China Galaxy Securities in Beijing.
Despite the growing worries and the central bank tightening, the main Shanghai index scaled new heights on Wednesday, gaining 1.18 percent.
"I'm pretty sure that the boom will last at least until the Olympic Games are over next year," Hua, the office worker, said.
"That's been the experience of other countries. So I can't be so stupid as to waste this chance. It won't come again."
Albaanias oli vist 80-90% rahvast püramiidmängude sees.
vähemalt kaks kolmandikku:
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2000/03/jarvis.htm
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2000/03/jarvis.htm
Continuous price hikes for meat, eggs likely to affect CPI
Last Updated(Beijing Time):2007-05-24 09:15
Prices for pork and eggs kept soaring over past weeks on Chinese market due largely to tight supply and increasing production cost.
Sources with the Ministry of Agriculture said on Wednesday that if the prices linger at high notch, the country's consumer price index (CPI), a major indicator for inflation, will be affected. CPI reached the alarm level of three percent in April.
Foodstuff has a weight of 33 percent of CPI in China, and meat, poultry and related products, 20 percent or so.
According to the Ministry of Agriculture, in April live pigs nationwide were priced 71.3 percent higher than a month earlier, and pork, 29.3 percent higher. Meanwhile, price of eggs rose 30.9 percent.
In Beijing, price of slaughtered pigs went up more than 30 percent in recent days, while that of eggs rose to record high for past five years.
Wholesale price of pork in Shanghai has hit 16 yuan (2.1 U.S. dollars) per kilogram, a record high for recent 10 years, up 20 percent month-on-month.
The wholesale price was even higher in Hangzhou, capital city of east China's Zhejiang Province.
"I bought the pork at 17 yuan/kg from a distributor on Monday, and the price kept changing day by day. I have no other choice but raise retail price," complained Jin Qiuhua, a local retailer, at a pork stand in a marketplace of Maolang Lane, Hangzhou.
"I've sold pork for more than 20 years, such a continuous price hike was only seen in 1994,"said Lu Youzhong, another pork retailer in the city.
Along with temperature hikes, blue ear disease broke out among pigs in south China, causing many deaths and a large amount of pigs to be eliminated. The result was a deficit in supply that has to be fulfilled by northern provinces.
"This sent a strong signal for distributors to jack up prices," said Xu Lianzhong, a senior economist with the price supervision center under the National Development and Reform Commission.
Actually, demand and supply remained unbalanced over the past few years, Xu noted.
"Pig raisers kept making losses over the past couple years and they are reluctant to raise pigs. This led to a marginal decline in stock for the current year."
Still worse, edible oil and grains underwent price hikes at the beginning of this year, and feed prices followed suit. The mounting raising cost for pigs and poultry brought about price hikes for pork and eggs, according to Xu.
Grain prices, which are to be affected by an expected decline in grain output this summer, will continue to increase by small margins in the coming weeks, boosting prices of pork and eggs, Xu said.
Xu predicted that egg prices would stabilize in a short period of time as egg supply can be replenished quickly, but it was difficult for pork prices to adjust downward in one to two months due to longer production cycle.
However, Xu said, pork prices have already peaked and have little room to go up further.
It is reported that related authorities have begun to pay attention to price hikes for pork and eggs. Some government departments have dispatched inspectors to pork markets around the country to carry out investigations.
Source:Xinhuanet
Last Updated(Beijing Time):2007-05-24 09:15
Prices for pork and eggs kept soaring over past weeks on Chinese market due largely to tight supply and increasing production cost.
Sources with the Ministry of Agriculture said on Wednesday that if the prices linger at high notch, the country's consumer price index (CPI), a major indicator for inflation, will be affected. CPI reached the alarm level of three percent in April.
Foodstuff has a weight of 33 percent of CPI in China, and meat, poultry and related products, 20 percent or so.
According to the Ministry of Agriculture, in April live pigs nationwide were priced 71.3 percent higher than a month earlier, and pork, 29.3 percent higher. Meanwhile, price of eggs rose 30.9 percent.
In Beijing, price of slaughtered pigs went up more than 30 percent in recent days, while that of eggs rose to record high for past five years.
Wholesale price of pork in Shanghai has hit 16 yuan (2.1 U.S. dollars) per kilogram, a record high for recent 10 years, up 20 percent month-on-month.
The wholesale price was even higher in Hangzhou, capital city of east China's Zhejiang Province.
"I bought the pork at 17 yuan/kg from a distributor on Monday, and the price kept changing day by day. I have no other choice but raise retail price," complained Jin Qiuhua, a local retailer, at a pork stand in a marketplace of Maolang Lane, Hangzhou.
"I've sold pork for more than 20 years, such a continuous price hike was only seen in 1994,"said Lu Youzhong, another pork retailer in the city.
Along with temperature hikes, blue ear disease broke out among pigs in south China, causing many deaths and a large amount of pigs to be eliminated. The result was a deficit in supply that has to be fulfilled by northern provinces.
"This sent a strong signal for distributors to jack up prices," said Xu Lianzhong, a senior economist with the price supervision center under the National Development and Reform Commission.
Actually, demand and supply remained unbalanced over the past few years, Xu noted.
"Pig raisers kept making losses over the past couple years and they are reluctant to raise pigs. This led to a marginal decline in stock for the current year."
Still worse, edible oil and grains underwent price hikes at the beginning of this year, and feed prices followed suit. The mounting raising cost for pigs and poultry brought about price hikes for pork and eggs, according to Xu.
Grain prices, which are to be affected by an expected decline in grain output this summer, will continue to increase by small margins in the coming weeks, boosting prices of pork and eggs, Xu said.
Xu predicted that egg prices would stabilize in a short period of time as egg supply can be replenished quickly, but it was difficult for pork prices to adjust downward in one to two months due to longer production cycle.
However, Xu said, pork prices have already peaked and have little room to go up further.
It is reported that related authorities have begun to pay attention to price hikes for pork and eggs. Some government departments have dispatched inspectors to pork markets around the country to carry out investigations.
Source:Xinhuanet
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