Oraanžutang tampimas sõnumitoojat, sest sõnum ei meeldinud. Vallandas tööturu infot koguva Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) juhi Erika McEntarferi, kuna värske tööturu data näitab, et kogu see trumpi idiootlik kaos hakkab väljenduma ka reaalsetes numbrites.
Võiks ennustada, et järglaseks saab mõni blond TV diktor või -ilmatüdruk, kes alati bossile meeldivate numbritega lagedale tuleb. Nagu nõukaliidus, hiinas või putleri juures, numbrid peavad ikka sobivad olema. Selline on maailma võimsaima riigi tase tänapäeval.
“In my opinion, today’s Jobs Numbers were RIGGED in order to make the Republicans, and ME, look bad,” Trump wrote.
William Beach, whom Trump appointed to lead the BLS during his first term, praised McEntarfer’s integrity and her expertise in labor economics. The immediate worry among economists was that it opened the door for the economic data to be distorted for political reasons. “Firing the Commissioner of Labor Statistics when the BLS revises jobs numbers down (as it routinely does) threatens to destroy trust in core American institutions, and all government statistics,” Arindrajit Dube, an economics professor at the University of Massachusetts Amherst, said. “I can’t stress how damaging this is.”
Majandus pidurdub…
WSJ: The message came from final sales to consumers and businesses data, which carves out government spending, inventories and international trade, and is closely watched by Fed policymakers. It grew just 1.2%, the weakest since late 2022.
There was no sign of a recovery at quarter’s end. Data released Thursday showed consumer spending stagnated during the second quarter.
The reports suggest that Trump’s policies, incl. tariffs, a major crackdown on immigration, and steep cuts to government programs and jobs, have begun weighing on demand. It is what many economists expected following a sharp deterioration in consumer and business sentiment in surveys earlier this year. But for months, the economy’s main engine—the labor market—appeared resilient, but Friday’s numbers show hiring has been particularly weak in sectors sensitive to the ups and downs of the economy.
From April to July, payrolls fell in mining and logging, manufacturing, wholesale trade and retail trade, which collectively employ more than 35 million. Hiring has slowed significantly in leisure and hospitality, potentially reflecting a decline in foreign tourism and belt-tightening by U.S. consumers, and in state and local governments. Most job gains in recent months have come in noncyclical sectors like healthcare.
PMI showed manufacturing activity contracted in July for a fifth consecutive month. Survey respondents cited higher uncertainty and Trump’s tariffs. “For every comment on hiring, there were two on reducing head counts,” said Susan Spence, chair of ISM’s manufacturing survey committee.
Palju see tariifi sokk on maksma läinud firmadele, $:
- Apple 1 B/Q
- Ford 0,8 B/Q
- GM 1,1 B/Q (4-5 B/FY)
- Tesla 0,3 B/Q
- VW 1,4 B/Q
- Stellantis 0,3 B/Q (1,5 B/FY)
FT: Mark Wakefield, global automotive market lead at AlixPartners, said carmakers were likely to pass on 80% of the tariff costs, which he estimated would total $30bn on the basis that trade deals for lower levies would be reached with Europe, Mexico and other countries.
As making cars more expensive for Americans would be politically sensitive, companies may choose to raise prices more discreetly by reducing sales discounts and changing the financing terms for leasing.
While the tariff costs may be mitigated by raising car prices, Wakefield explained carmakers would still suffer “cash erosion in a different way from lower volumes” if consumer demand fell away with the rise in vehicles prices for potential buyers.
Raske näha kuidas järgmiste valimiste eel firmad kõike ei teeks, et keegi teine kui maga segased võimule saaks…
Yale ülikooli Budget Lab (YBL) mudeldab bjuuutiful tariifide mõju keskm. USA leibkonnale, paar tuhat $ pa läinud:
The price level from all 2025 tariffs rises by 1.8% in the short-run, equivalent of an average per household income loss of $2,400.
Losses for households at the bottom of the income distribution are $1,300.
The post-substitution price increase settles at 1.5%, a $2,000 loss per household.
