Der Spiegeli vahendusel avalikuks tulnud salapärane kohtumine EL-i ametnike, eurotsooni riikide rahandusministrite ja Kreeka vahel pakkus palju kõneainet terve nädalavahetuse. Kuigi Spiegeli väide, et Kreeka ähvardab euroalast välja astuda, on nii Kreeka enda ametnike kui ka Jean-Claude Junckeri poolt tagasi lükatud, siis kindlamal alusel võib väita vajadust täiendavate miljardite järele, kuna riigil pole võimalik järgmisel aastal võlakirjaturule naasta. Muuhulgas arutati väidetavalt 3%lise eelarvedefitsiidi sihi tähtaja pikendamist.
Kuna täna olulisi makrouudiseid oodata ei ole, jääb fookus Kreeka sündmuste arengutele. Euroopa on seetõttu avanenud kerges miinuses, kuid USA futuurid kauplevad 0,5% plusspoolel.
Euro on dollari vastu pärast neljapäevast ja reedest 600 pipsist kukkumist täna näitamas väikest taastumist
WSJ kirjutab, et Kreeka soovib järgmisel aastal saada Euroopa stabiilsusfondist lisaks varasemalt lubatud laenudele täiendavad 30 miljardit eurot:
Greece has been slipping farther behind its targets for cutting its budget deficit and is expected to need nearly €30 billion ($43 billion) of extra financing for 2012, according to euro-zone officials. (link)
Ilmselt tuleks täiendav abiraha kõne alla üsna karmidel tingimustel. Bloombergi andmetel peaks Kreeka laenu saamiseks panema kindlad varad tagatiseks ja suurendama oma erastamisplaane.
Greece has been slipping farther behind its targets for cutting its budget deficit and is expected to need nearly €30 billion ($43 billion) of extra financing for 2012, according to euro-zone officials. (link)
Ilmselt tuleks täiendav abiraha kõne alla üsna karmidel tingimustel. Bloombergi andmetel peaks Kreeka laenu saamiseks panema kindlad varad tagatiseks ja suurendama oma erastamisplaane.
Citi aktsiaga (C) tehti revers-split 1 for 10, Seega tähelepanu aktsia enda ja optsioonidega. Kõik tühistamiseni orderid on seoses korporatiivse sündmusega tühistatud.
Optsioonidega seonduv siin: http://www.cboe.com/framed/PDFframed.aspx?content=/publish/TTStockSM/11-254.pdf§ion=SEC_RESOURCES&title=CBOE – CBOE
Optsioonidega seonduv siin: http://www.cboe.com/framed/PDFframed.aspx?content=/publish/TTStockSM/11-254.pdf§ion=SEC_RESOURCES&title=CBOE – CBOE
Kreeka SKP graafik näitab tekkinud negatiivset lumepalliefekti, kus majanduslangus aina suurendab võlakoormust suhtena SKPsse:
Allikas: Deutsche Bank
Allikas: Deutsche Bank
Eurotsooni maikuu Sentix investorite usaldusindeks 10,9 vs oodatud 13,8 punkti (aprillis 14,2 punkt). Euro kaupleb hetkel 0,7% kõrgemal $1,4423 juures.
Tänane Reuters kirjutab, et kõige viimaste uuringute põhjal on Apple (AAPL) võtnud Google (GOOG)-lt üle kõige vääruslikuma kaubamärgi tiitli.
GOOG on hoidnud tiitlit enda käes juba neli aastat, aga iPhone ja iPadide tootja kaubamärk, mille väärtus on nüüd $ 153 miljardit, lõpetab Google`i valitsusaja.
GOOG on hoidnud tiitlit enda käes juba neli aastat, aga iPhone ja iPadide tootja kaubamärk, mille väärtus on nüüd $ 153 miljardit, lõpetab Google`i valitsusaja.
Gapping up
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: BSFT +10.1%, ONTY +9.8%, TC +4.6%, SYY +3.1% (light volume), SLW +2.7%, AUXL +2.6%.
M&A news: DTG +8.7% and HTZ +4.2% (HTZ offers DTG $72.00 per share consisting of $57.60 in cash and 0.8546 shares of Hertz).
Select metals/mining stocks trading higher: SLV +5%, AG +4.2%, PAAS +3.3%, VALE +3.3%, CDE +3.2%, HL +2.6%, RIO +1.9%, GG +1.6%, GLD +0.9%, BBL +0.6%.
Select oil/gas related names showing strength: SD +5.9%, EOG +2.8% (Q1 review; organic growth to continue in '11 and '12 - Wunderlich), HES +2.5%, SDRL +2.4%, STO +2%, BP +1%.
Other news: TRMB +9.4% (ticking higher; Trimble Navigation offers to acquire all shares in Tekla for EUR15.00), OXGN +5.0% (continued momentum), ELN +3.4% (Alkermes to acquire Elan's Drug Technologies to create Alkermes plc; transaction is expected to be immediately accretive to cash earnings), DEO +1.4% (still checking for anything specific), ASML +1.3% (still checking).
Analyst comments: APO +2.7% (initiated with Buy at Deutsche, initiated with a Market Perform at Wells Fargo, initiated with a Buy at UBS, initiated with an Outperform at Credit Suisse, initiated with a Buy at Goldman, initiated with an Overweight at JP Morgan, initiated with a Buy at Citigroup), ETFC +2.4% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman), NE +1.4% (upgraded to Strong Buy from Reduce at Duncan-Williams), PEP +0.8% (added to Conviction Buy List at Goldman).
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: BSFT +10.1%, ONTY +9.8%, TC +4.6%, SYY +3.1% (light volume), SLW +2.7%, AUXL +2.6%.
M&A news: DTG +8.7% and HTZ +4.2% (HTZ offers DTG $72.00 per share consisting of $57.60 in cash and 0.8546 shares of Hertz).
Select metals/mining stocks trading higher: SLV +5%, AG +4.2%, PAAS +3.3%, VALE +3.3%, CDE +3.2%, HL +2.6%, RIO +1.9%, GG +1.6%, GLD +0.9%, BBL +0.6%.
Select oil/gas related names showing strength: SD +5.9%, EOG +2.8% (Q1 review; organic growth to continue in '11 and '12 - Wunderlich), HES +2.5%, SDRL +2.4%, STO +2%, BP +1%.
Other news: TRMB +9.4% (ticking higher; Trimble Navigation offers to acquire all shares in Tekla for EUR15.00), OXGN +5.0% (continued momentum), ELN +3.4% (Alkermes to acquire Elan's Drug Technologies to create Alkermes plc; transaction is expected to be immediately accretive to cash earnings), DEO +1.4% (still checking for anything specific), ASML +1.3% (still checking).
Analyst comments: APO +2.7% (initiated with Buy at Deutsche, initiated with a Market Perform at Wells Fargo, initiated with a Buy at UBS, initiated with an Outperform at Credit Suisse, initiated with a Buy at Goldman, initiated with an Overweight at JP Morgan, initiated with a Buy at Citigroup), ETFC +2.4% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman), NE +1.4% (upgraded to Strong Buy from Reduce at Duncan-Williams), PEP +0.8% (added to Conviction Buy List at Goldman).
S&P cuts Greece's rating to B/C from BB-/B
S&P maintains their negative outlook.
S&P maintains their negative outlook.
Blogipidaja Zerohedge, kes on ka tuntud kui Goldmani "fänn", kirjutab taaskord firmast sarkastilises toonis.
Zerohedge ütleb, et kui kellelgi on arusaamatuks jäänud Goldmani prognoosimisviis, siis peale viimast Jim O`Neili analüüsi peaks selles osas selgus käes olema. Nimelt on O´Neili nägemus, et toorainehinnad jätkavad langust, mis on sisuliselt vastupidine arvamus eelnevalt David Greely avaldatud analüüsile, kus Greely väidab, et pikemas perspektiivis on toormehinnad tõusuteel. Seetõttu oletab blogipidaja, et kui Goldmanis väita midagi vastupidiselt oma kolleegide arvamusele, siis on kõik suunad turvaliselt kaetud. Zerohedge lisab veel, et Goldmani kliendile ei oskaks ta muud soovitada, kui kulli ja kirja visata, sest kellelgi ikka õigus on.
Zerohedge ütleb, et kui kellelgi on arusaamatuks jäänud Goldmani prognoosimisviis, siis peale viimast Jim O`Neili analüüsi peaks selles osas selgus käes olema. Nimelt on O´Neili nägemus, et toorainehinnad jätkavad langust, mis on sisuliselt vastupidine arvamus eelnevalt David Greely avaldatud analüüsile, kus Greely väidab, et pikemas perspektiivis on toormehinnad tõusuteel. Seetõttu oletab blogipidaja, et kui Goldmanis väita midagi vastupidiselt oma kolleegide arvamusele, siis on kõik suunad turvaliselt kaetud. Zerohedge lisab veel, et Goldmani kliendile ei oskaks ta muud soovitada, kui kulli ja kirja visata, sest kellelgi ikka õigus on.
Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: ZRAN -13.3%, REN -2.9% (light volume), BKCC -1.6%, HBC -1.5%.
Select financial related names showing weakness: IRE -2.6%, RBS -2.0%, AIB -1.5%, BBVA -1.3%, ING -1.3%, UBS -1.2%, STD -1.0%, BCS -0.8%.
Other news: SPSC -1.9% (files to sell 1,404,327 share of common stock; co said the filing relates to 200,000 of the co's own common stock and 1,204,327 shares from shareholders).
Analyst comments: SPLS -1.9% (downgraded to Reduce from Neutral at Nomura), AMTD -0.6% (downgraded to Neutral at Goldman).
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: ZRAN -13.3%, REN -2.9% (light volume), BKCC -1.6%, HBC -1.5%.
Select financial related names showing weakness: IRE -2.6%, RBS -2.0%, AIB -1.5%, BBVA -1.3%, ING -1.3%, UBS -1.2%, STD -1.0%, BCS -0.8%.
Other news: SPSC -1.9% (files to sell 1,404,327 share of common stock; co said the filing relates to 200,000 of the co's own common stock and 1,204,327 shares from shareholders).
Analyst comments: SPLS -1.9% (downgraded to Reduce from Neutral at Nomura), AMTD -0.6% (downgraded to Neutral at Goldman).
Euro on lähenemas reedestele põhjadele, kaubeldes hetkel avanemistaseme $1,4327 juures.
Kerget nõrkust on päras S&P downgrade'i näidanud ka USA futuurid, mis hetkel teevad päeva põhjasid, ent hetkel siiski veel 0,1-0,3% plusspoolel
Kes DNDN aktsiat radaril hoiab, siis on kindlasti märganud, et viimase nädala-paari jooksul on aktsia korraliku müügisurve all olnud ning kaotanud ligi 10% oma väärtusest. Müük on tõenäoliselt tingitud paarist Müü reitingust, mis DNDN hiljuti saanud on. Näiteks Credit Suisse, mis alustas möödunud nädadal DNDN katmist Müü reitinguga ütles, et nende arvates on konsenuse ootused Provenge müügiedu suhtes ülemäära positiivsed ning ühe võimaliku ohuna mainiti konkurentsi.
Täna on aga Collins Stewarti analüütikud väljas omapoolse nägemusega, mis toetub arstide seas läbiviidud uurimusele ning ütlevad, et nõudlus Provenge järele on endiselt tugev.
We are presenting the results of our proprietary 44-physician survey on Provenge designed to elucidate their views on utilization, experience, reimbursement, and competition. Overall, the physicians expect to treat an average of 14 patients/year in 2011 and 23/year in 2012, with utilization expected to increase in 2013+.
Uurimuses selgub ka,et paljud arstid usuvad, et tulevikus hakkavad nii Zytiga ja MDV3100 Provengega tõenäoliselt konkureerima. Samas mitmed arstid usuvad, et DNDN ravimit saab MDV3100-ga ka kombineerida. Igal juhul on enamus arste seisukohal, et tulevikus hakkavad nad aina enam patsiente Provengega ravima.
Physicians see a place for Provenge in a competitive market: While 59% and 25% of physicians believe Zytiga (abiraterone) and MDV3100, respectively, may eventually compete with Provenge, several believe Provenge could be used in combination with MDV3100 and/or sequentially after one or both drugs in asymptomatic/minimally symptomatic CRPC. Nonetheless, most physicians expect to treat an increasing number of patients with Provenge in 2012 and beyond.
Collins Stewart kinnitab oma Osta soovitust koos $ 55 hinnasihiga.
Täna on aga Collins Stewarti analüütikud väljas omapoolse nägemusega, mis toetub arstide seas läbiviidud uurimusele ning ütlevad, et nõudlus Provenge järele on endiselt tugev.
We are presenting the results of our proprietary 44-physician survey on Provenge designed to elucidate their views on utilization, experience, reimbursement, and competition. Overall, the physicians expect to treat an average of 14 patients/year in 2011 and 23/year in 2012, with utilization expected to increase in 2013+.
Uurimuses selgub ka,et paljud arstid usuvad, et tulevikus hakkavad nii Zytiga ja MDV3100 Provengega tõenäoliselt konkureerima. Samas mitmed arstid usuvad, et DNDN ravimit saab MDV3100-ga ka kombineerida. Igal juhul on enamus arste seisukohal, et tulevikus hakkavad nad aina enam patsiente Provengega ravima.
Physicians see a place for Provenge in a competitive market: While 59% and 25% of physicians believe Zytiga (abiraterone) and MDV3100, respectively, may eventually compete with Provenge, several believe Provenge could be used in combination with MDV3100 and/or sequentially after one or both drugs in asymptomatic/minimally symptomatic CRPC. Nonetheless, most physicians expect to treat an increasing number of patients with Provenge in 2012 and beyond.
Collins Stewart kinnitab oma Osta soovitust koos $ 55 hinnasihiga.
Trend-Spotting for Fun and Profit
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
5/9/2011 9:02 AM EDT
Trends, like horses, are easier to ride in the direction they are going.
-- John Naisbitt
It may sound very simplistic, but if you want to make money in the market, nothing is more important than trading in the direction of the overall trend. Stocks tend to move together and it is very challenging to find profitable opportunities if you trying to find the minority that trading counter to the overall trend.
Even though the trend is of extreme importance, far too many market players concentrate more on looking for turning points than they do on recognizing the current trend. There is a tendency to always be looking for what the next shift might be rather than respecting what is actually happening at the moment.
To complicate matters, recognizing the direction of the prevailing trend isn't always that easy. It depends a great deal on your time frame. What may be a temporary market glitch to one person may be a total change in market character to another. A pullback that lasts a month may be a lifetime to a short-term trader but meaningless to a longer-term buy-and-hold investor.
I bring up this topic this morning because we had some indications last week that the recent uptrend is running into some problems. We had a "sell the news" reaction to the Osama bin Laden death, then we had a major meltdown of the leading momentum stocks, and then we had strength in the dollar cause a major pullback in oil and commodity stocks.
In the bigger scheme of things, the indices didn't pull back all that much, but under the surface there was some very severe damage done to many stocks, and most of the leaders were wiped out. Some defensive names asserted themselves but we did not see the sort of healthy rotation that indicates the market is just regrouping.
The market bounced back a bit on Friday and is trying to stay green this morning, but it is a weak attempt and looks like little more than an oversold bounce rather than a resumption of the uptrend.
Our primary job right now is to determine whether the market is undergoing a change in character that indicates that a more lasting downtrend may be emerging. There has been an increase in the bearish calls lately from traders that I respect, and I'm definitely increasingly concerned that we aren't going to bounce back that easily. Of course, every time I start to think the market isn't going to recover that quickly, it does exactly that -- so it is very tough to be aggressively negative.
Downtrends are made up of failed bounces, and that's what we have to watch for at this point. The key levels to watch are the lows of last week. For the S&P 500, that's 1329. If we crack that level, then we have a lower high and a lower low, which is the definition of a downtrend.
My biggest concern about this market is the action in individual stocks. Momentum stocks, commodities and small-caps all suffered badly last week, and there are few places to hide if you are looking for good setups and leadership.
My approach is to stick with the prevailing trend as long as possible and not try to guess when it might turn. But we had some substantial clues last week that the character of the market was changing, and we need to be very aware of that. It certainty is possible that it's nothing but a very loud hiccup, but the bulls need to jump back on their horses and get them running the right way again very soon.
It is time to stay very watchful and to be aware that trading against the trend is a good way to lose money.
The market's early strength is fizzling a bit as news hits that the rating on Greek debt has been cut. That is causing the dollar to rise and is pressuring the market again
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
5/9/2011 9:02 AM EDT
Trends, like horses, are easier to ride in the direction they are going.
-- John Naisbitt
It may sound very simplistic, but if you want to make money in the market, nothing is more important than trading in the direction of the overall trend. Stocks tend to move together and it is very challenging to find profitable opportunities if you trying to find the minority that trading counter to the overall trend.
Even though the trend is of extreme importance, far too many market players concentrate more on looking for turning points than they do on recognizing the current trend. There is a tendency to always be looking for what the next shift might be rather than respecting what is actually happening at the moment.
To complicate matters, recognizing the direction of the prevailing trend isn't always that easy. It depends a great deal on your time frame. What may be a temporary market glitch to one person may be a total change in market character to another. A pullback that lasts a month may be a lifetime to a short-term trader but meaningless to a longer-term buy-and-hold investor.
I bring up this topic this morning because we had some indications last week that the recent uptrend is running into some problems. We had a "sell the news" reaction to the Osama bin Laden death, then we had a major meltdown of the leading momentum stocks, and then we had strength in the dollar cause a major pullback in oil and commodity stocks.
In the bigger scheme of things, the indices didn't pull back all that much, but under the surface there was some very severe damage done to many stocks, and most of the leaders were wiped out. Some defensive names asserted themselves but we did not see the sort of healthy rotation that indicates the market is just regrouping.
The market bounced back a bit on Friday and is trying to stay green this morning, but it is a weak attempt and looks like little more than an oversold bounce rather than a resumption of the uptrend.
Our primary job right now is to determine whether the market is undergoing a change in character that indicates that a more lasting downtrend may be emerging. There has been an increase in the bearish calls lately from traders that I respect, and I'm definitely increasingly concerned that we aren't going to bounce back that easily. Of course, every time I start to think the market isn't going to recover that quickly, it does exactly that -- so it is very tough to be aggressively negative.
Downtrends are made up of failed bounces, and that's what we have to watch for at this point. The key levels to watch are the lows of last week. For the S&P 500, that's 1329. If we crack that level, then we have a lower high and a lower low, which is the definition of a downtrend.
My biggest concern about this market is the action in individual stocks. Momentum stocks, commodities and small-caps all suffered badly last week, and there are few places to hide if you are looking for good setups and leadership.
My approach is to stick with the prevailing trend as long as possible and not try to guess when it might turn. But we had some substantial clues last week that the character of the market was changing, and we need to be very aware of that. It certainty is possible that it's nothing but a very loud hiccup, but the bulls need to jump back on their horses and get them running the right way again very soon.
It is time to stay very watchful and to be aware that trading against the trend is a good way to lose money.
The market's early strength is fizzling a bit as news hits that the rating on Greek debt has been cut. That is causing the dollar to rise and is pressuring the market again
WSJs ilmus "põlissoomlaste" parteijuhi Timo Soini arvamusartikkel Why I Won't Support More Bailouts. Siin üks väike väljavõte, kuid kogu artikkel väärib täispikkuses lugemist.
To understand the real nature and purpose of the bailouts, we first have to understand who really benefits from them. Let's follow the money.
At the risk of being accused of populism, we'll begin with the obvious: It is not the little guy that benefits. He is being milked and lied to in order to keep the insolvent system running. He is paid less and taxed more to provide the money needed to keep this Ponzi scheme going. Meanwhile, a kind of deadly symbiosis has developed between politicians and banks: Our political leaders borrow ever more money to pay off the banks, which return the favor by lending ever-more money back to our governments, keeping the scheme afloat.
rõhutaks ka seda: "Setting up the European Stability Mechanism is no solution. It would institutionalize the system of wealth transfers from private citizens to compromised politicians and otherwise failed bankers, creating a huge moral hazard and destroying what remains of Europe's competitive banking landscape."
Muidugi on selge, et keegi ei anna midagi ära ilma võitluseta, ent mittetootlikuks osutunud ettevõtmised tuleb siiski mingi mõistliku aja jooksul restruktureerida/sulgeda, mitte "teha Narva Kreenholmi". Kas raiud koera saba jupphaaval või ühekorraga - minu meelest ühekorraga on vähem valus kui n-korda valu taluda..
Viimase kriisi puhul on selgelt valitud pea liiva alla toppimise tee, "raha peale loopimine" aitas probleemi "eitada" mõnda aega, aga mingi hetk tuleb tunnistada, et pealeloopimine ei aita ja s#tahunnik tuleb ikkagi alt ära koristada, nüüd on veel lisategevus, et pealeloobitud raha ja s#tahunnik tuleb teinetesest eraldada, mis muidugi osutub ületamatuks ettevõtmiseks, seega, bye-bye pealeloobitud raha.
Muidugi on selge, et keegi ei anna midagi ära ilma võitluseta, ent mittetootlikuks osutunud ettevõtmised tuleb siiski mingi mõistliku aja jooksul restruktureerida/sulgeda, mitte "teha Narva Kreenholmi". Kas raiud koera saba jupphaaval või ühekorraga - minu meelest ühekorraga on vähem valus kui n-korda valu taluda..
Viimase kriisi puhul on selgelt valitud pea liiva alla toppimise tee, "raha peale loopimine" aitas probleemi "eitada" mõnda aega, aga mingi hetk tuleb tunnistada, et pealeloopimine ei aita ja s#tahunnik tuleb ikkagi alt ära koristada, nüüd on veel lisategevus, et pealeloobitud raha ja s#tahunnik tuleb teinetesest eraldada, mis muidugi osutub ületamatuks ettevõtmiseks, seega, bye-bye pealeloobitud raha.
Kreeka valitsusele on tänane reitingu alandamine S&P poolt loomulikult vastukarva:
GREEK FINANCE MINISTRY SAYS S&P CREDIBILITY IN QUESTION
GREECE SAYS S&P MOVE ISN'T JUSTIFIED
Euro langus on hoogu juurde saamas: hetkel -0,46% ja kaupleb $1,4257 juures.
Sky-mobi: (MOBI) on peale Citron Research artiklit kõvasti pihta saanud ja isegi reedene UBS osta reiting ning $20 hinnasiht ei andnud aktsiale erilist tuge.
Täna teatati kvartalitulemused, kus EPS jäi veidi alla ja järgmise kvartali prognoosid vastavad konsensuse ootustele.
Selle peale täna aktsia taas surve all, kuid Oppenheimer on aktsiat kaitsma tulnud.
Tegemist väga volatiilse aktsiaga, mõlemale poole liikumisvõimalus väga suur.
Täna teatati kvartalitulemused, kus EPS jäi veidi alla ja järgmise kvartali prognoosid vastavad konsensuse ootustele.
Selle peale täna aktsia taas surve all, kuid Oppenheimer on aktsiat kaitsma tulnud.
Tegemist väga volatiilse aktsiaga, mõlemale poole liikumisvõimalus väga suur.