Turgudel hingati eile vahelduseks taas kergemalt, kui Saksamaa riigikohtu arvates on eurotsooni riikide päästepaketid olnud seaduslikud ning Itaalia senat kiitis heaks üle 50 miljardi euro ulatuses kärpeid ja maksutõususid, mis nüüd liigub parlamendi alamkotta hääletamisele. Euroopa perifeeriariikide võlakirjaintressid tulid selle peale pisut madalamale, kuid oma käsi oli seal mängus ka EKP-l, kes oli sunnitud suurema ostmise läbi taas tuge pakkuma.
Fedi Beige Book ei avaldanud turgudele suurt muljet, kui maalitud pilt sai kuuga pisut nukrama alatooni. Mitmetes ringkondades oli aktsiaturgude kasvanud volatiilsus ja suurenenud majanduslik ebamäärasus tinginud lähituleviku ootuste allapoole toomise või ettevaatlikuma suhtumise. Raporti kohaselt oli tarbijate ex-auto kulutused mitmetest ringkondades jäänud samaks või veidi kahanenud, nõudlus laenude järele ja tööturg püsinud stabiilsena. Chicago Fedi president Charles Evans ütles eile, et praegused olud kirjeldavad üha rohkem majandust, mis on retsessioonis ning tema kohaselt peaks FED kaaluma agressiivsemaid meetmeid. Täna peab kõne Ben Bernanke, ent raske uskuda, et see avaldaks veidi rohkem infot võrreldes Jackson Hole’i esinemisega. Kui mingi samm tehakse, siis tõenäoliselt kuuleme sellest alles pärast 20-21 septembri FOMC kohtumist.
Suuremat tähelepanu võiks aga saada täna Euroopa Keskpanga miiting, kus ühtlasi avalikustatakse värsked majanduskasvu ja inflatsiooniprognoosid. Trichet vihjas hiljutises kõnes, et risk hinnatõusu kiirenemise osas võib olla leevenenud ja pressikonverentsil võidakse seega anda märk intresside tõstmise peatamisest mõneks ajaks. Kuigi paljude arvates peaks EKP langetama intressi, siis selline samm tuleks praegu pigem üllatusena. Intresside samaks jätmist oodatakse ka Inglise keskpangalt. Kell 15.30 avalikustatakse USA möödunud nädala töötuabiraha taotluste suurusjärk ja mingi hetk peab kõne president Obama, kellelt oodatakse mitmete tööturu elavdamiseks kasutatavate meetmete pikendamist.
USA indeksite futuurid kauplevad hetkel -0,3% punases, Euroopa on aga avanemas 0,2-0,3% kõrgemal.
WSJ tänane artikkel lahkab taas pikemalt kolme alternatiivi, mida FOMC 20-21. septembri kohtumisel tõenäoliselt kaalutakse.
One step getting considerable attention inside and outside the Fed would shift the central bank's portfolio of government bonds so that it holds more long-term securities and fewer short-term securities.The move—known to some in markets as "Operation Twist" and to some inside the Fed as "maturity extension"—is meant to further push down long-term interest rates and thus encourage economic activity. The program draws its name from a similar 1960s effort by the U.S. Treasury and the Fed, in which they tried to "twist" interest rates so that long-term rates were lower relative to short-term rates.
A second step under consideration at the Fed, one getting mixed reviews internally, would reduce or eliminate a 0.25% interest rate the Fed currently is paying banks that keep cash on reserve with the central bank.
A third step Fed officials are debating would involve using their words to make their economic objectives and plans for interest rates more clear.Some officials felt the Fed's August pledge to keep rates low until 2013 wasn't specific enough about what was driving its thinking. They want the Fed to say what unemployment rate or inflation rate would trigger it to boost rates.
One step getting considerable attention inside and outside the Fed would shift the central bank's portfolio of government bonds so that it holds more long-term securities and fewer short-term securities.The move—known to some in markets as "Operation Twist" and to some inside the Fed as "maturity extension"—is meant to further push down long-term interest rates and thus encourage economic activity. The program draws its name from a similar 1960s effort by the U.S. Treasury and the Fed, in which they tried to "twist" interest rates so that long-term rates were lower relative to short-term rates.
A second step under consideration at the Fed, one getting mixed reviews internally, would reduce or eliminate a 0.25% interest rate the Fed currently is paying banks that keep cash on reserve with the central bank.
A third step Fed officials are debating would involve using their words to make their economic objectives and plans for interest rates more clear.Some officials felt the Fed's August pledge to keep rates low until 2013 wasn't specific enough about what was driving its thinking. They want the Fed to say what unemployment rate or inflation rate would trigger it to boost rates.
David Tepper, kes aasta tagasi tõdes, QE2 loob turgudel win-win olukorra, on tänavu jäämas ettevaatlikumaks ning eelistanud suurendada raha osakaalu. Via Institutional Investor
Word is he will remain cautious until there is improvement in the European bank crisis. Of course, if the markets tank, you can be sure he’ll be aggressively scouring for bargains.
Word is he will remain cautious until there is improvement in the European bank crisis. Of course, if the markets tank, you can be sure he’ll be aggressively scouring for bargains.
Kas septembris pidi Itaalia suurema koguse võlakirju lunastama? Kui jah, siis kuidas see Euroopat olukorda võib mõjutada? Kui suur see summa on?
Kuigi Austraalia majandusel läks teises kvartalis oodatus paremini, siis globaalsete turgude närvilisus on peegeldumas hästi sealsel tööturul, kus juulis vähendati töökohtade arvu 9700 võrra, samal ajal kui konsensus ootas 10 000 töökohta loomist. See on tõstnud töötusemäära ühe kuuga 5,1% pealt 5,3% peale (kõrgeim alates 2010.a oktoobrist) ning kindlasti annab mõtlemisainet keskpangale, kes eile otsustas jätta intressimäära muutmata (4,75%).
Marek9
Kas septembris pidi Itaalia suurema koguse võlakirju lunastama? Kui jah, siis kuidas see Euroopat olukorda võib mõjutada? Kui suur see summa on?
Itaalia peab BNP Paribase kohaselt sel aastal veel müüma ligi 90 miljardi euro jagu võlakirju ning september saab tõesti olema tõsine proovikivi, kui 46 miljardi euro väärtuses võlga tuleb tagasi maksta. Ma arvan, et enne EFSFi uute tingimuste ratifitseerimist eurotsooni valitsuste poolt peab EKP nii palju enda poolt toetama, et võlakirja emissioonidest ei kujuneks erilist mõju finantsturgudele.
Erko kirjutab Itaalia kohta, et "46 miljardi euro väärtuses võlga tuleb tagasi maksta", kas nad tõesti on kunagi midagi tagasi maksnud??? Või annavad hoopis eelmiste aegunud võlakirjade eest vastavalt intressile rohkem uusi, mille eest saab tulevikus veel rohkem uusi võlakirju ja nii aegade lõpuni?
kurnjau
Erko kirjutab Itaalia kohta, et "46 miljardi euro väärtuses võlga tuleb tagasi maksta", kas nad tõesti on kunagi midagi tagasi maksnud??? Või annavad hoopis eelmiste aegunud võlakirjade eest vastavalt intressile rohkem uusi, mille eest saab tulevikus veel rohkem uusi võlakirju ja nii aegade lõpuni?
Et Itaalia võlakoorem mingi hetk vähenema hakkaks, peaks kaduma eelarvedefitsiit, mis praegu oleks tegelikult ülejäägis, kui puuduksid tohutud intressikohustused. Seni aga tuleb vanasid võlgasid tõepoolest finantseerida uutega.
04.09.11: Italy must redeem €14.6bn of debt this week and €62bn by the end of September, the highest ever in a single month. It must roll over €170bn by December.
Bloombergist võetud info näitab samuti, et septembris tuleb tagasi maksta 46 miljardit (intress+põhiosamakse) ning sel aastal kokku veel 113 miljardit. Võta siis kinni, keda uskuda :)
Nojah see "this week" @04.09.11 võib tähendada kas nädalat 35 või 36 ja 62 - 14,6 = 47,4 niiet sept. peaaegu klapib.
Vaatamata sellele, et inflatsioon Suurbritannias küündis juulis juba 4,4%ni ning Inglise keskpanga president oli sunnitud kirjutama rahandusministrile juba seitsmenda järjestikuse kirja põhjustest, miks inflatsioon on kõrgem keskpanga poolt eesmärgiks saavutatud 2%st, siis ka UK puhul on üha häälekamalt hakatud nõudma uut rahatrükki. Täna kirjutab Telegraph, et Institute of Directors pooldaks võlakirjade ostuprogrammi suurendamist 50 miljardi naela võrra.
BOE jättis intressimäära 0,5% peale, ega muutnud 200 miljardi naela suurust võlakirjade ostuprogrammi.
Nael on dollar vastu saanud veidi tuge sellest, et uut rahatrükki ei tulnud, kaubeldes 0,35% kõrgemal @ 1,6035 USD
European Central Bank holds its benchmark interest rate at 1.50%
Continuing Claims 3.717 mln vs. 3.7 mln Briefing.com consensus; prior 3.735 mln
Weekly Initial Jobless Claims 414K vs. 400K Briefing.com consensus; prior revised to 412K from 409K
Weekly Initial Jobless Claims 414K vs. 400K Briefing.com consensus; prior revised to 412K from 409K
Gapping up
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: HOV +9.1%, SFD +2.2%, HWD +2%, (light volume).
M&A news: CALP +35.3% (Caliper Life Sciences to be acquired by PerkinElmer for $10.50/share valued at ~600 mln in cash), PMIC (Penn Millers Hldg to be acquired by ACE for 20.50 per share in cash).
A few financial related names are modestly higher: CS +1.8%, RBS +1.2%, DB +0.6%.
Select metals/mining stocks trading higher: SVM +2.7%, GOLD +2.3%, AUY +2.1%, GLD +1.7%, SLV +1.6%, EGO +1.6%, RGLD +1.3%.
Other news: LUNA +17.8% (thinly traded, still checking), NEOP +4% (announced that it received positive scientific advice late last week from the European Medicines Agency on the development of RIGScanTM CR), PAY +3.1% (will replace TBL in the S&P MidCap 400 index), PLX +1.9% (ticking higher, Protalix BioTherapeutics Taliglucerase Alfa Phase III results published in Blood, the Journal of the American Society of Hematology), PCX +1.5% (provides investor update in 8K slides; Co disclosed that it expects $150 mln in incremental EBITDA from roll out of legacy contracts), NOK +0.9% (still checking for anything specific), DECK +0.8% (mentioned positively on MadMoney).
Analyst comments: AVII +6.9% (initiated with a Buy at Lazard), ACI +1.3% (upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at Atlantic Equities), RVBD +1.2% (initiated with an Outperform at Raymond James), JNPR +1.1% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at Auriga ), FTE +0.6% (upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Exane BNP Paribas), CSCO +0.5% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at Auriga).
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: HOV +9.1%, SFD +2.2%, HWD +2%, (light volume).
M&A news: CALP +35.3% (Caliper Life Sciences to be acquired by PerkinElmer for $10.50/share valued at ~600 mln in cash), PMIC (Penn Millers Hldg to be acquired by ACE for 20.50 per share in cash).
A few financial related names are modestly higher: CS +1.8%, RBS +1.2%, DB +0.6%.
Select metals/mining stocks trading higher: SVM +2.7%, GOLD +2.3%, AUY +2.1%, GLD +1.7%, SLV +1.6%, EGO +1.6%, RGLD +1.3%.
Other news: LUNA +17.8% (thinly traded, still checking), NEOP +4% (announced that it received positive scientific advice late last week from the European Medicines Agency on the development of RIGScanTM CR), PAY +3.1% (will replace TBL in the S&P MidCap 400 index), PLX +1.9% (ticking higher, Protalix BioTherapeutics Taliglucerase Alfa Phase III results published in Blood, the Journal of the American Society of Hematology), PCX +1.5% (provides investor update in 8K slides; Co disclosed that it expects $150 mln in incremental EBITDA from roll out of legacy contracts), NOK +0.9% (still checking for anything specific), DECK +0.8% (mentioned positively on MadMoney).
Analyst comments: AVII +6.9% (initiated with a Buy at Lazard), ACI +1.3% (upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at Atlantic Equities), RVBD +1.2% (initiated with an Outperform at Raymond James), JNPR +1.1% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at Auriga ), FTE +0.6% (upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Exane BNP Paribas), CSCO +0.5% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at Auriga).
Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: GIII -12.1%, PLL -7.3%, SEAC -6.5%, TZOO -3.3% (also downgraded to Mkt Perform at Morgan Keegan), MW -2.4%, TITN -1% (light volume).
Select mining stocks trading lower: BHP -1.9%, MT -1.7%, BBL -1.6%, YZC -1.5%.
Other news: GNC -5.3% (files to sell 20.0 mln shares by selling stockholders), CLMT -4.3% (announces an 11 mln common unit offering), DG -2.9% (files for 25 mln share common stock offering by selling shareholders), RPTP -2.3% (announces proposed public offering of common stock).
Analyst comments: NEE -1.5% (ticking lower, downgraded to Hold at Wunderlich).
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: GIII -12.1%, PLL -7.3%, SEAC -6.5%, TZOO -3.3% (also downgraded to Mkt Perform at Morgan Keegan), MW -2.4%, TITN -1% (light volume).
Select mining stocks trading lower: BHP -1.9%, MT -1.7%, BBL -1.6%, YZC -1.5%.
Other news: GNC -5.3% (files to sell 20.0 mln shares by selling stockholders), CLMT -4.3% (announces an 11 mln common unit offering), DG -2.9% (files for 25 mln share common stock offering by selling shareholders), RPTP -2.3% (announces proposed public offering of common stock).
Analyst comments: NEE -1.5% (ticking lower, downgraded to Hold at Wunderlich).
Trichet says inflation to stay clearly above 2.0% over coming months, should fall below 2.0% in 2012
Trichet says real GDP forecasts revised downwards to 1.4%-1.8% vs +1.5% - 2.3% in 2011; +0.4% - 2.4% vs +0.6% -2.8% in 2012
Trichet says real GDP forecasts revised downwards to 1.4%-1.8% vs +1.5% - 2.3% in 2011; +0.4% - 2.4% vs +0.6% -2.8% in 2012
pärast oodatust paremat juuli personal spending numbrit rääkisid mõned optimistid Q3 GDP ootuste üles revideerimisest, nüüd veel veidi datat sellest, et vähemalt juulis ei olnud asjad Q3 GDP seisukohast halvad
WASHINGTON, Sept 8 (Reuters) - The U.S. trade deficit narrowed much more than expected in July as strong Latin American demand helped push exports to a new record and imports fell slightly, a government report showed on Thursday.
The trade gap totaled $44.8 billion, 13.1 percent less than in June and well below a consensus forecast of $51.0 billion from Wall Street analysts surveyed before the report. It was the biggest month-to-month percentage drop in the deficit since February 2009.
U.S. exports rose 3.6 percent to a record $178.0 billion, driven by record shipments to countries in South and Central America and higher demand from China and major oil producers. Records were also set for two large categories, goods and services, as well as for capital goods and autos
WASHINGTON, Sept 8 (Reuters) - The U.S. trade deficit narrowed much more than expected in July as strong Latin American demand helped push exports to a new record and imports fell slightly, a government report showed on Thursday.
The trade gap totaled $44.8 billion, 13.1 percent less than in June and well below a consensus forecast of $51.0 billion from Wall Street analysts surveyed before the report. It was the biggest month-to-month percentage drop in the deficit since February 2009.
U.S. exports rose 3.6 percent to a record $178.0 billion, driven by record shipments to countries in South and Central America and higher demand from China and major oil producers. Records were also set for two large categories, goods and services, as well as for capital goods and autos