Saksamaa 10 a võlakirja yield vajunud Tricheti kõne peale rekordmadalale tasemele
We Can’t Change the Seasons
By James "Rev Shark" DePorre
| Sep 08, 2011
Take time to deliberate; but when the time for action arrives, stop thinking and go in. -- Andrew Jackson quoting Napoleon Bonaparte
One of the most important skills that a trader can cultivate is the ability to shift quickly from patience to aggressive action and then back again. Great traders have the ability to do little for long periods of time and then suddenly act with great vigor when conditions shift to favor their approach.
Too often traders make the mistake of thinking that they have to always be in constant motion. They want to trade just as aggressively in a poor market, even when they don’t have any real advantage. At the other end of the spectrum are traders who become so frozen by the inertia of poor markets that they are unable to move when conditions change and they finally do have better opportunities.
Recently, I’ve been hearing from a great number of traders who are feeling quite frustrated because the market simply doesn’t favor their approach at this time. A big part of that is a function of the fact that we broke down in early August and have been struggling with a downtrend and a choppy trading range subsequently. The market has not favored the building of positions that can be held for days or weeks. There is no leadership other than precious metals and that is tough for the hot-money, momentum traders.
Like so many other things in the market, it is just the nature of the beast at times. The market has its seasons and there isn’t anything we can do to change them. We have to wait for things to shift, but the good news is that, ultimately, they always do. The one thing we can always count on from the market is change.
If you recognize that not all conditions are going to favor your approach to the market then it makes it easier to deal with those periods where there isn’t as much opportunity. The important thing is to not give up and to be lulled into complacency. You have to maintain your mental edge and be ready to shift into action completely and aggressively when things change. It might be a news headline or an intraday market turn, but at some point the conditions will favor your approach again and you have to be ready to seize the opportunities quickly.
Market players who take a more anticipatory approach to the market may see things differently. In fact, there are many traders who cultivate a style of not waiting for conditions to change. They want to constant want to guess when there will be a sudden turn and, hopefully, be in position to benefit when it does happen.
My view is that trying to time the market in that manner is just too much of a wild guess in most cases and that we are better off if we focus on being mentally prepared to react quickly. The difference between anticipating and reacting quickly can be quite minimal if you pay attention. In addition, the big benefit of a reactionary approach is that carries far less risk than an anticipatory one.
Right now this market just doesn’t favor a very aggressive approach for those who use my style of momentum trading. We don’t have any upside momentum right now, which means we are relegated to knocking out smaller, faster trades in order to stay active.
I’m sure there are other traders who find this market to be quite hospitable to their approach. If that is the case then now is the time they need to capitalize on that aggressively. If you feel you have an edge then seize it and make the most of it. If you don’t feel you have an advantage then don’t force it. Learn to shift from great patience to aggressive action and then back again.
With Ben Bernanke and President Obama on deck with speeches today the focus is very likely to be on the likelihood of another round of quantitative easing or some variation thereof. I don’t believe the market is expecting anything surprising from the president, but it will be hanging on every word from Chairman Bernanke.
We have very mild action in the early going as market players contemplate yesterday’s low volume bounce and the risk of more bad news out of Europe. It is not an easy trading environment for most but it helps if you simply acknowledge that fact.
By James "Rev Shark" DePorre
| Sep 08, 2011
Take time to deliberate; but when the time for action arrives, stop thinking and go in. -- Andrew Jackson quoting Napoleon Bonaparte
One of the most important skills that a trader can cultivate is the ability to shift quickly from patience to aggressive action and then back again. Great traders have the ability to do little for long periods of time and then suddenly act with great vigor when conditions shift to favor their approach.
Too often traders make the mistake of thinking that they have to always be in constant motion. They want to trade just as aggressively in a poor market, even when they don’t have any real advantage. At the other end of the spectrum are traders who become so frozen by the inertia of poor markets that they are unable to move when conditions change and they finally do have better opportunities.
Recently, I’ve been hearing from a great number of traders who are feeling quite frustrated because the market simply doesn’t favor their approach at this time. A big part of that is a function of the fact that we broke down in early August and have been struggling with a downtrend and a choppy trading range subsequently. The market has not favored the building of positions that can be held for days or weeks. There is no leadership other than precious metals and that is tough for the hot-money, momentum traders.
Like so many other things in the market, it is just the nature of the beast at times. The market has its seasons and there isn’t anything we can do to change them. We have to wait for things to shift, but the good news is that, ultimately, they always do. The one thing we can always count on from the market is change.
If you recognize that not all conditions are going to favor your approach to the market then it makes it easier to deal with those periods where there isn’t as much opportunity. The important thing is to not give up and to be lulled into complacency. You have to maintain your mental edge and be ready to shift into action completely and aggressively when things change. It might be a news headline or an intraday market turn, but at some point the conditions will favor your approach again and you have to be ready to seize the opportunities quickly.
Market players who take a more anticipatory approach to the market may see things differently. In fact, there are many traders who cultivate a style of not waiting for conditions to change. They want to constant want to guess when there will be a sudden turn and, hopefully, be in position to benefit when it does happen.
My view is that trying to time the market in that manner is just too much of a wild guess in most cases and that we are better off if we focus on being mentally prepared to react quickly. The difference between anticipating and reacting quickly can be quite minimal if you pay attention. In addition, the big benefit of a reactionary approach is that carries far less risk than an anticipatory one.
Right now this market just doesn’t favor a very aggressive approach for those who use my style of momentum trading. We don’t have any upside momentum right now, which means we are relegated to knocking out smaller, faster trades in order to stay active.
I’m sure there are other traders who find this market to be quite hospitable to their approach. If that is the case then now is the time they need to capitalize on that aggressively. If you feel you have an edge then seize it and make the most of it. If you don’t feel you have an advantage then don’t force it. Learn to shift from great patience to aggressive action and then back again.
With Ben Bernanke and President Obama on deck with speeches today the focus is very likely to be on the likelihood of another round of quantitative easing or some variation thereof. I don’t believe the market is expecting anything surprising from the president, but it will be hanging on every word from Chairman Bernanke.
We have very mild action in the early going as market players contemplate yesterday’s low volume bounce and the risk of more bad news out of Europe. It is not an easy trading environment for most but it helps if you simply acknowledge that fact.
Molycorp (MCP) jumps to highs on volume; strength attributed to speculation that stock could be added to S&P 500, and reports that Hitachi is in talks to work with co on rare earth supplies
Renren (RENN) jumps $0.30 on increased volume
The Street veebilehel on artikkel terasetootjatest, mis logiseva majanduse taustal on üks rängemini pihta saanud sektoreid üldse. Kuna terasetootjate edu sõltub enamalt jaolt makromajandusest, siis ei ole ka üllatav, et investorid just neist aktsiatest esimeses järjekorras on soovinud vabaneda.
Artiklis kirjutatakse, et vaatamata endiselt nõrkadele makronäitajatele võiks terasetootjate aktsiad uuesti radarile võtta, sest Obama töökohtade loomisplaan lubab suurendada kulutusi infrastruktuurile, mis suurendab nõudlust ka tearsele. Samas tuleb arvestada, et terasesektor on üsna killustunud ja sõltub palju ka näiteks autotööstusest ja ehitusturust.
Artklis mainitud aktsiad on NUE,AKS,X,STLD jja RS.
Artiklis kirjutatakse, et vaatamata endiselt nõrkadele makronäitajatele võiks terasetootjate aktsiad uuesti radarile võtta, sest Obama töökohtade loomisplaan lubab suurendada kulutusi infrastruktuurile, mis suurendab nõudlust ka tearsele. Samas tuleb arvestada, et terasesektor on üsna killustunud ja sõltub palju ka näiteks autotööstusest ja ehitusturust.
Artklis mainitud aktsiad on NUE,AKS,X,STLD jja RS.
OpenTable (OPEN) drops over 4 pts on news that GOOG has acquired restaurant/travel review co Zagat
Business Insider kirjutab, et Yahoo! (YHOO) kaasasutaja Jerry Yang uurib väidetavalt võimalusi firma ära ostmiseks. Yang on ka pidanud ettevõttes CEO ametit ja hetkel kuulub talle 3,63% firmast. Yahoo ise kommentaare andma ei soostunud.
Dendreon (DNDN) announced restructuring plans, overall cost reductions, and an update on PROVENGE; reported August gross revenues of approximately $22 million.
VeriSign (VRSN) CFO Leaving Company to Pursue New Opportunities
DNDN COO lahkub firmast ja koondatakse 500 töökohta, mis on ca 25% nende tööjõust.
DNDN kohta ka Goldman kommentaare andmas:
We were encouraged by:
1) the uptick in August (+$3 mn over July), which if it continues could generate Provenge revenues of $237 mn for 2011 (vs. us and consensus of $219 mn) and $500 mn+ for 2012;
2) expenses are being managed and reduced downwards though several questions on margins and fixed costs remain; and
3) the commentary on reimbursement and number of accounts infusing Provenge was positive. We are adjusting our estimates to reflect these updates.
Upside remains contingent on execution and Provenge demand
generation: Over the next 12 months, management has to meaningfully accelerate Provenge sales (with expenses being in line with today’s update). We believe only this will address the key investor concerns of demand and profitability, and the secondary concern of any need to raise capital.
Valuation: Our Buy rating and 12-month, DCF & M&A-derived PT of $19 are unchanged.
Key risks: Risk to the downside remains disappointing Provenge sales.
DNDN varasem PT oli Goldmanil $20. Nüüd siis $19, mis tuleneb nende biopharma sektori M&A väärtusmudeli ümberarvestusest. Eraldi note eile:
http://www.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=971&mn=417748&pt=msg&mid=10925892
http://www.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=971&mn=417748&pt=msg&mid=10925892