Börsipäev 7. oktoober

Investeerimine
1

Enne Inglise ja Euroopa keskpanga intressimäära otsuseid on täna Euroopas oodata Suurbritannia ning Saksamaa augustikuu tööstustoodangu numbreid vastavalt kell 11.30 ja 13.00. Põhitähelepanu langeb 15.30 algavale Euroopa keskpanga pressikonverentsile, kus teemaks võib tulla euro viimase aja tugevnemine, selle mõju Euroopa majanduslikule taastumisele, kui ka rahapoliitika koordineerimise edasine suund, mille osas on Jürgen Stark andnud mõista, et erinevatest likviidsusmeetmetest soovitakse väljuda oodatust kiiremini.

USA-s aga avaldatakse iganädalane esmase töötuabiraha taotlejate arv, mille suurusjärguks prognoositakse 455K ehk tõusu 2000 võrra võrreldes eelneva nädalaga. Kestvate töötuabiraha taotluste arvuks prognoositakse 4,450 mln vs 4,475 mln eelneval nädalal.

Aasia indeksid on hetkel kauplemas valdavalt kerges miinuses, kaasaarvatud Jaapan kus keskpank pole otsustanud jeene uuesti müüma tulla ning laseb USD/JPY vahetuskursil eilsete põhjade lähedal liikuda @ 82,8. USA futuurid samuti kurseerimas nulli lähedal.

2

Täna pärast turgu raporteerib oma kolmanda kvartali tulemused Alcoa, avades ühtlasi mitteametlikult tulemustehooaja. Viimase nädala jooksul on mitmed analüüsimajad madalamate alumiiniumihindade tõttu (spot price 0,93 USD vs 0,94 USD mullu samal ajal) tõmmanud oma ootusi Alcoa kasumi osas madalamale, ühtlustades nägemust konsensusega, kes prognoosib Q3 aktsiakasumiks 0,06 dollarit (aasta tagasi 0,04 USD).

Goldman Sachsi tulemuste eelne kommentaar:

We maintain our Neutral rating on AA on the back of our pessimistic view on aluminum relative to other base metals. Issues of over-supply and excess inventories remain an overhang over the industry and supply-demand fundamentals over the next couple of years appear bleak. However, we believe an in-line 3Q result combined with positiive sentiment on the back of the recent Chinese capacity cuts announcements could potentially drive up Alcoa stock in the near-term.

3

Vietnami keskpank on täna otsustanud võtta kaalumisele lubada kohalikel ettevõtetel importida kulda selleks, et stabiliseerida kohalikku kullaturgu. Ligi 9%-lise inflatsiooni ja dongi korduvate devalveerimiste tõttu on kuld Vietnamis populaarne investeerimisvahend, mistõttu kaupleb kollane metall seal kõrgemal (1405 USD per unts) rahvusvahelisest spot hinnast. Märk, et Aasia turgudel võib füüsilisel turul nõudluse rahuldamisega keeruliseks minna, on lisaks dollari nõrkusele viinud kulla hinna järjekordse rekordini.

4

Prantsusmaa teiseks suurim autotootja Renault'i aktsia on täna üle 7% plussis, olles teatanud et nad kavatsevad müüa 15%lise osaluse Volvos, teenides selle eest eeldatavalt 3 miljardit eurot. Seeläbi paraneb oluliselt bilanss (2009.a netovõlg/EBITDA 2,2 peaks 2010.a lõpuks vähenema 0,4x peale), mis ühest küljest võib tingide krediidireitingu tõstmise ning teisest küljest lubab investoritel paremini Renaulti enda ja Nissani väljavaadetele keskenduda. Morgan Stanley jätkab aktsia katmist overweight reitinguga tõstes hinnasihi 46 eurolt 52 euro peale, mis praeguse hinna juures tähendab 33% upside'i.

5
UK augustikuu tööstustoodang oodatust veidi parem....YoY kasv 4,2% vs oodatud 4,1% (eelmine kuu revideeriti 1,9% pealt 2,0% peale) ning MoM 0,3% vs oodatud 0,2%.

Euroopa indeksid jätkvad liikumist nulli lähedal, sama nõutult on püsinud ühel kohal ka USA futuurid
6

Saksamaa tööstustoodangu kasv oodatust suurem, mis on Euroopa indeksid ja USA futuurid kergesse plussi tõstnud

Germany's industrial production rose 1.7% in August from the previous month, the nation's economic ministry said Thursday, citing seasonally adjusted data. The data were much stronger than the 0.6% monthly rise anticipated by economists, according to Action Economics. In July, production posted a monthly rise of 0.1%

7

BOE leaves Benchmark Interest Rates Unchanged at 0.50%

Bank of England maintains size of the asset purchase programme at GBP200 billion A program of asset purchases financed by the issuance of central bank reserves was initiated on March 5, 2009. The most recent change in the size of that program was an increase of GBP25 billion to a total of GBP200 billion on November 5 2009.

8

ECB leaves Interest Rates Unchanged at 1.0%

9

Link 15.30 algavale ECB pressikonverentsile

10

Weekly Initial Jobless Claims 445K vs. 455K Briefing.com consensus; prior revised to 456K from 453K
Continuing Claims 4.462 mln vs. 4.450 mln Briefing.com consensus; prior revised to 4.510 mln from 4.457 mln

11

Gapping down

In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance/SSS: BLUD -18.0%, HIMX -7.9%, MAR -4.9%, BEBE -4.9% (light volume), GPS -3.1%, PEP -2.1%, RT -1.9%, CLU -1.3%, TGT -1.0%.

Other news: AUMN -9.6% (announces equity financing), ISPH -5.5% (files $150 mln mixed securities shelf offering ), IVR -4.3% (announces an 8.5 mln share commons stock offering), VNR -4.2% (announces a 4.15 mln share common unit offering representing limited liability company interests in the co), AUO -4.1% (early weakness attributed to reports that the co is planning convertible bond sale), REGN -4.0% (will offer 4.5 mln shares of common stock pursuant to that shelf), AIB -3.1% (proposed disposal of the M&T shareholding pricing of public offering of contingent mandatorily exchangeable notes), PVX -2.2% (announces plans for corporate conversion, corporate dividend policy; sees FY10 EBITDA at lower end of guidance).

Analyst comments: DPS -1.7% (downgraded to Underperform from Outperform at Credit Agricole), CTL -0.8% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Stifel Nicolaus).

Gapping up

In reaction to strong earnings/guidance/SSS: MASC +5.5% (thinly traded), ANF +5.5%, LTD +3.7%, AEO +3.3%, ARO +2.8%, M +0.6%.

Select financial related names showing strength: FITB +1.5%, CS +1.4%, DB +1.3%, IRE +1.3%, LNC +1.1%, BCS +0.8%.

Select solar names trading higher: JASO +1.9% (announces supply agreement for 13mw of mono-crystalline solar cells with a leading U.S. solar manufacturer; delivery begins in Q3 and will continue through remainder of 2010), FSLR +1.7% (announces 380 megawatt increase in orders for 2011), SOLF +1.1%.

Select metals/mining stocks trading higher: MT +2.7%, NG +2.4%, PAL +1.8%, AA +1.6%, BHP +1.5%, SLV +1.4%, ABX +1.2%, EGO +1.2%, AUY +1.0%, GOLD +0.7%.

Other news: ALVR +17.5% (Alvarion and Barrett Xplore sign multi-year agreement valued at over $75 mln to deploy a 4g network across Canada), ITMN +10.4% (sells Danoprevir rights to Roche for $175 mln), CHC +7.6% (ticking higher... still checking), BIOF +6.7% (continued momentum; EPA ruling next week on blending levels for ethanol into gasoline), CMTL +5.9% (CEO, CFO and VP disclose buying 6,725 shares at $27.32-28.31 on 10/4-10/6), WFR +4.6% (JPMorgan to finance an estimated $60 mln for SunEdison solar projects across the U.S.; upgraded to Hold at Wunderlich), AFFY +3.4% (says arbitration panel has determined that Affymax and JNJ are co-owners of certain intellectual property), NOK +2.2% (Nokia Siemens to deploy LightSquared nationwide network), RYAAY +1.9% (still checking for anything specific), AZN +1.4% (still checking).

Analyst comments: CLMS +2.5% (upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Keefe Bruyette), VE +2.0% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS), CROX +1.9% (initiated with Buy at Sterne Agee; tgt $19), CRM +1.0% (upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at Piper Jaffray).

12

USA futuurid indikeerimas avanemist 0,4% kõrgemal

Euroopa turud:

Saksamaa DAX +0,60%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 +0,77%
Suurbritannia FTSE100 +0,39%
Hispaania IBEX 35 +1,07%
Rootsi OMX 30 +0,09%
Venemaa MICEX +0,02%
Poola WIG -0,16%

Aasia turud:

Jaapani Nikkei 225 -0,07%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng +0,02%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) suletud
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) suletud
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq -0,24%
Austraalia S&P/ASX 200 +0,10%
Tai Set 50 -0,92%
India Sensex 30 -1,11%

13

Rev shark: Mo-Mo, RIP?
10/07/2010 8:01 AM

Better a diamond with a flaw than a pebble without one.
-- Chinese proverb

After a big technical breakout in the market on Tuesday, we had an interesting development yesterday with some very aggressive selling of the stocks that had been leading the market over the past month or so. What was particularly unusual was that that the selling was quite contained and did not spill over to other areas of the market. The DJIA was completely oblivious to the destruction that was taking place in names like F5 (FFIV - commentary - Trade Now), VMware (VMW - commentary - Trade Now), Salesforce.com (CRM - commentary - Trade Now), NetApp (NTAP - commentary - Trade Now) and so on.

Right now this momentum selling is just a small flaw in a market that has been acting well, but the million-dollar question is whether this action might spread and infect the broader market. Was this just some air coming out of a cloud computing and storage stocks that have run too far too fast, or is this a signal that speculative fervor is cooling and the market in danger of topping?

At this juncture, it is premature to be too negative. High-momentum stocks are always susceptible to sudden spikes down and sharp bouts of profit-taking. It is worrisome when it occurs on big volume and key support levels are broken, but these hot stocks will almost always attract some aggressive traders looking for bounces. If there is another run for the exits after some sort of oversold bounce kicks in, we will need to be much more concerned about the health of aggressive momentum.

What helped out yesterday was that market players seemed quite content to move into commodity, mining and basic materials stocks. There also was some relative strength in financials, so clearly there was no broad-based panic.

We have a couple events that are likely to be the catalyst for the next market move. The first is the jobs report which is due out on Friday morning. The ADP report yesterday was a bit soft, which caused a little concern, but market players have been somewhat sanguine lately about economic data. We have the peculiar dynamic now where bad economic news may be good because it increases the hopes of another round of quantitative easing. That certainly adds a complication as we await tomorrow's numbers.

The other major event is the start of earnings season. Alcoa (AA - commentary - Trade Now) is the unofficial start tonight, but more important reports such as Google (GOOG - commentary - Trade Now), JPMorgan (JPM - commentary - Trade Now) and GE (GE - commentary - Trade Now) start to hit next week.

Earnings yesterday from Equinix (EQIC - commentary - Trade Now) spurred some of the aggressive selling in technology stocks. Market players were worried that expectations may be too high and even an inline report could be punished badly because some of these stocks are up so much. This is a major theme we will have to monitor as reports start to hit.

Technically the indices continue to do little wrong. The S&P 500 needs to hold 1150 and can afford to back and fill here. The Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 are a bit more worrisome after the action yesterday as they fell back into their bases and never did break out of the recent trading range.

Let's see how the various sectors act today. If the selling of momentum favorites starts to impact small-caps and other groups, we'll definitely need to increase our defenses, but hopefully the market will be selective and allow us to do some individual stock-picking.

Weekly claims are slightly better than expected and that is giving us a small boost, but the jobs data tomorrow will be far more important.

No positions.

14

Viimased andmed näitavad, et pankade poolt antav krediit on juulis ja augustis suurenenud ning osalised andmed septembrist viitavad ka kolmandale järjestikulisele tõusukuule. Panga poolt antav krediit koosneb aga kahest komponendist – väärtpaberite ostmine ning laenud ja liisingud. Skeptikud peavad tõusu põhjuseks just väärtpaberite soetamist, mitte laenude suurendamist. Kui aga vaadata ajalugu, siis alates 1960. aastast on kriisist taastumise algfaasis suurenenud väärtpaberite ostmine ning see saavutab haripunkti palju varem kui laenude ja liisingute suurenemine. Seda seost näeb alloleval graafikul. Ning samuti on näha, et viimastel kuudel on väärtpaberite soetamine kasvanud järjest aeglustuvas tempos.

Kui ajalugu peaks taas ennast kordama, siis järgmistel kuudel on oodata laenude ja liisingute mahu tõusu. Nominaalsed andmed on näidanud et viimased kolm nädalat on laenude maht suurenenud. (link)

15

Kuna USA riiklike võlakirjade tulususe määrad on olematud (10-aastase võlakirja tulususe määr on hetkel ca 2.4%), siis on investorid sunnitud otsima raha paigutamiseks alternatiivseid lahendusi. Samas on kõrgemate intressimäärade ootuses ettevõtted väljastamas võimalikult palju võlakirju, et ära kasutada madalat laenumäära. Uueks nii-öelda kullaauguks on osutunud korporatiivvõlakirjad ehk kõrge riski ning tulususe määradega väärtpaberid. Allolev graafik näitab väljastatud nii-öelda „junk“ võlakirjade väärtust sadades miljardites viimase 4 aasta jooksul. Käesoleval aastal on USA ettevõtted väljastanud (5. oktoobri seisuga) kokku 203 miljardit madalakvaliteedilisi võlakirju. Paraku ei tehta saadud rahaga suurt muud, kui makstakse välja dividendidena.

16

Käimasoleva aasta suvel kirjutasin loo American Eagle Outfitters’ist (AEO), kui ettevõtte aktsia kauples $14.92 tasemel. Juuni lõpus kauples AEO aga $11.60 tasemel. Viimastel kuudel on aga noortele mõeldud rõivaste müük tublisti hoogu kogunud – septembrikuus kasvas USA jaemüük juba 13. kuud järjest. Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) on AEO’ga liikunud samas trendis. ANF teatas täna, et vähemalt aasta avatud olnud poodide müüginumbrid kasvasid y-o-y baasil 13% vs konsensusootus 3.6%. AEO vähemalt aasta avatud olnud poodide müüginumbrid kasvasid aga 4% vs konsensuse poolt prognoositud 0.1%. Alloleval graafikul on kujutatud AEO aktsiagraafik.

17
Moody's places various Irish covered bonds on review for possible downgrade
18
Aug Consumer Credit -$3.3 bln vs. -$3.0 bln Briefing.com consensus; prior revised to -$4.1 bln from -$3.6 bln
19
Adobe Systems (ADBE) aktsia kauples täna vahepeal 17% kõrgemal enne kui aktsiaga kauplemine peatati. Tõusu põhjuseks Adobe ja Micrsofoti (MSFT) juhtide kohtumine, kus arutati erinevaid võimalusi, kuidas Apple'ile konkurentsi pakkuda. NY Timesi sõnul arutati ka Adobe ülevõtmist.
20
AA halted enne tulemusi.