Täna on turu jaoks omajagu olulisi sündmusi. Kell 15.30 Eesti aja järgi tuleb esmaste töötu abiraha taotlejate näit (ootus 0.65 mln vs eelmise nädala 0.667 mln). Kell 15.30 algab ka Euroopa Keskpanga intressimäära otsuse järgne pressikonverents, mida saab kuulata siit. Nii ECB'lt kui BoE'lt oodatakse täna 50 bipslilist langetust.
Hoolimata sellest, et paljuloodetud majanduse abipaketi suurendamist Hiinas ei tulnud, oli peaministri julgustav kõne sedavõrd piisav, et kohalik aktsiaturg suutis eilse 6%lise ralli järel ka täna plusspoolel lõpetada. Ameerika eelturu futuurid niivõrd rõõmustavad ei ole ning sealt vaatab vastu üle protsendiline miinus - S&P500 on langenud 700 punkti peale.
Bank of England cuts benchmark rate 1/2 point to 0.5%
Kuigi Arco Vara foorumis on see juba ammu välja toodud, siis panen ka börsipäevafoorumisse võrdluslimiidi muutmise märke ära, kuna ega neid Eesti turul meil väga palju ju ette pole tulnud. Kauplemine Arco Vara aktsiaga algab taas kell 14.20.
AS-i Arco Vara aktsiaga toimunud olulise hinnaliikumise tõttu langetatakse täna
alates kella 14:20 AS-i Arco Vara aktsia alumist võrdluslimiiti seniselt
-15%-lt -25%-le. Seega on uuteks võrdluslimiitideks -25% ja +15% ning need
kehtivad kuni tänase börsipäeva lõpuni.
Võrdluslimiit on protsentuaalne määr, mille piires võib tehingutellimuse ning
määratud vastaspoolega tehingu hind erineda võrdlushinnast. AS-i Arco Vara
aktsia võrdlushinnaks on 0,11 eurot. Alumiseks võrdluslimiidiks enne muudatust
on 0,10 eurot ja pärast muudatust 0,09 eurot ning ülemiseks võrdluslimiidiks on
endiselt 0,12 eurot.
AS-i Arco Vara aktsiaga toimunud olulise hinnaliikumise tõttu langetatakse täna
alates kella 14:20 AS-i Arco Vara aktsia alumist võrdluslimiiti seniselt
-15%-lt -25%-le. Seega on uuteks võrdluslimiitideks -25% ja +15% ning need
kehtivad kuni tänase börsipäeva lõpuni.
Võrdluslimiit on protsentuaalne määr, mille piires võib tehingutellimuse ning
määratud vastaspoolega tehingu hind erineda võrdlushinnast. AS-i Arco Vara
aktsia võrdlushinnaks on 0,11 eurot. Alumiseks võrdluslimiidiks enne muudatust
on 0,10 eurot ja pärast muudatust 0,09 eurot ning ülemiseks võrdluslimiidiks on
endiselt 0,12 eurot.
ECB CUTS RATE TO 1.50% - -50 bps
Initial claims oodatust pisut leebem... aga antud nädalal pearõhk ikkagi homme avaldataval tööjõuraportil
Initial Claims 639K vs 650K consensus, prior revised to 670K from 667K
Initial Claims 639K vs 650K consensus, prior revised to 670K from 667K
ECB ootab inflatsioonimäära jäämist korralikult allapoole seatud 2% piiri nii 2009. kui ka 2010. aastal. Majanduse taastumist nähakse 2010. aastal.
Kui ma õieti kuulsin, siis euro-ala SKP prognoosid:
-3.2% kuni -2.2% in 2009
-0.7% kuni +0.7% in 2010
-3.2% kuni -2.2% in 2009
-0.7% kuni +0.7% in 2010
Üldiselt tundub Trichelt tulev sõnum intressimäärade osas olevat väga leebe ning majanduse osas samavõrra jahe. Madalad intressid here to stay. Dollar on pressikonverentsi esimese kahekümne minutiga euro vastu tugevnenud ning aktsiaturu futuurid allapoole tulnud.
Mr. Juncker oleks iseenesest sobiliku nimega seda ECB "non-standard measures" poolt kantseldama...
Nii-nii. Tuli ka küsimus Ida-Euroopa kohta ja et mida on valmis ECB regiooni jaoks tegema.
Järgnes lühike ja konkreetne vastus. Olemasolevaid reegleid muutma ei hakata ja jäädakse tänase seadusraamistiku juurde - ehk kui mõni riik on väga nõrgas seisus, siis kiirkorras seda euro-ala riikide hulka ei võeta. Julgustavat/toetavat sõnavõttu ei tulnud.
Järgnes lühike ja konkreetne vastus. Olemasolevaid reegleid muutma ei hakata ja jäädakse tänase seadusraamistiku juurde - ehk kui mõni riik on väga nõrgas seisus, siis kiirkorras seda euro-ala riikide hulka ei võeta. Julgustavat/toetavat sõnavõttu ei tulnud.
ühesõnaga fuck them- meil on ka eurotsooni lõdva püksikummiga riikidega kohe kohe palju tööd
USA alustab päeva saranselt Euroopale korralikus miinuses. S&P500 futuur -2% @ 694 punkti, Nasdaq100 -0.7% @ 1093 punkti ning nafta -2.65 @ 44.2 barrelist.
Saksamaa DAX -3.28%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 -2.74%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 -2.65%
Hispaania IBEX 35 -3.57%
Venemaa MICEX -2.74%
Poola WIG -1.12%
Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 +1.95%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng -0.97%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) +1.05%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) +0.04%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq +0.63%
Tai Set 50 -0.12%
India Sensex 30 -2.94%
Vicious Cycle
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
3/5/2009 8:30 AM EST
"A constant struggle, a ceaseless battle to bring success from inhospitable surroundings, is the price of all great achievements."
-- Orison Swett Marden
After a one-day bounce in a tremendously oversold market, we are poised to gap right back down again to start the day. The problem is that we just can't seem to fully come to grips with our tremendous economic problems. We all know things are bad, but the market has not been able to fully discount them.
As an ongoing concern, this morning we have news that the auditors of General Motors (GM) say that the automaker may not be able to continue. Morningstar is saying that Citigroup (C) , Bank of America (BAC) , State Street (STT) , PNC Financial (PNC) , SunTrust (STI) , Fifth Third (FITB) and KeyCorp (KEY) are likely to fail the governmental stress tests for banks.
It was the banks and General Electric (GE) that held back the market bounce yesterday. There was quite a bit of strong action in semiconductors, energy and commodity-related names, but without financials, the bounce fizzled badly in the last few minutes of trading. The financials are the big drag again this morning and are causing the gap down.
There was quite a bit of hubbub yesterday over a prediction that the market is close to its lows for the year. I sure hope that is the case, but there is no way that the market action allows me to embrace that idea at this time. At the moment, we can't even hold on to the rather tame bounce we had yesterday. If that is the best sign we have that a bottom is in, then we are in trouble.
What I really dislike about the constant bottom calls is that they help to produce the cycle of hope and disappointment that is so painful in a bear market. If you constantly are looking for lows and are consistently disappointed, it creates despair and misery. Emotionally, it is far better to stay cautious and slow to embrace the idea that the worst is over.
As I mentioned in my closing post yesterday, I was optimistic that we may have a bit more upside to come. The poor open we are facing this morning certainly doesn't help in that regard but is typical during a bear market, which is why I'm very slow to trust the idea that the market has made a meaningful turn.
Our big problem remains what it has been for some time now. We have no clarity when it comes to the bank problems. Geithner's bank bailout plans are confusing and incomplete, and investors have little confidence that the stimulus and mortgage plans are going to help us.
So what do we do? Don't get excited over sensationalist calls over major market turns. When the market is better, we will have plenty of opportunities to profit. The key right now is to stay patient, maybe do some very short-term trading, but to remain focused on protecting capital.
You aren't going to find a market much tougher than this, but out of ceaseless battle to protect and grow our capital will eventually come success. Stay tough.
-----------------------------
Ülespoole avanevad:
Gapping up In reaction to strong earnings/guidance/same store sales: BBI +46.8%, CSR +15.8%, SIGM +11.2% (also upgraded to Buy at Collins Stewart), HOTT +9.1%, WTW +8.6% (light volume), ADBE +7.8% (also upgraded to Market Perform at Friedman Billings, upgraded to Buy at UBS and upgraded to Buy at Jefferies), FDO +7.3%, GA +6.5%, FLY +6.4% (light volume), AUY +5.5%, MR +4.9% (light volume), WMT +2.6%... M&A news: TRA +5.5% (Terra Industries Board of Directors rejects CF Industries' unsolicited exchange offer)... Select gold/silver related names ticking higher: SLV +2.1%, GG +1.2%, NEM +1.1%, GLD +1.0%... Analyst comments: BIDU +2.3% (upgraded to Buy at Citigroup).
Allapoole avanevad:
Gapping down In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance/same store sales: GYMB -35.1% (also downgraded to Neutral at JPMorgan), URBN -10.1%, MATK -9.5%, CCRN -7.8%, DAR -7.4%, PETM -6.9%, GD -6.6%, CIEN -6.4%, GPS -2.9% (also downgraded to Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley)... M&A news: CF -2.4% (Terra Industries Board of Directors rejects CF Industries' unsolicited exchange offer)... Select financials pulling back following weakness overseas and Moody's commentary on select names: BCS -17.8%, PUK -17.5% (Insurers fall in the UK - DJ), AEG -15.4%, ING -15.1%, LYG -14.6% (UK Asset Plan for LYG hits snags - WSJ), IBN -8.2%, PRU -7.4%, WFC -7.1% (Moody's reviews for downgrade Wells Fargo's ratings), HBC -6.7%, USB -6.4% (tgt lowered to $9 at FBR), MET -5.0%, AXA -5.0%, RF -4.5%, JPM -4.2% (Moody's puts negative rating outlook on JP Morgan), STD -4.2%, BEN -4.2% (initiated with Sell at Citigroup), UBS -4.0%, XL -4.0% (announces that Chairman of the Board has decided not to stand for re-election), DB -3.9%, MS -3.4%, BAC -2.9% (Moody's reviews for downgrade Bank of America Ratings), CS -2.8%, GS -2.7%, C -2.7% (Itau-Unibanco denies talks to buy Citi's Banamex - DJ)... Select oil/gas related names trading lower with weakness in crude: E -4.4%, TOT -3.8%, SLB -3.4%, COP -2.5%, XOM -2.1% (plans to invest between $25-$30 bln annually over the next 5 yrs, to meet expected long-term growth in world energy demand), RDS.A -2.0%, CVX -2.0%, BP -1.0%... Select metals/mining names showing weakness: AAUK -6.5%, BBL -6.5%, BHP -6.3%, RIO -5.7% (downgraded to Neutral at BofA/Merrill), RTP -5.4%, MT -4.3%, FCX -4.1%, HMY -2.2%... Select drybulk shipping names trading lower: EGLE -10.7%, DRYS -10.3%, EXM -7.1%, FRO -5.3%, TBSI -4.3%... Select aerospace/defense names trading lower following GD guidance: BA -1.7%, TXT -1.4%... Select communications/telecom related names showing early weakness: VOD -3.9%, CHL -3.7%, NOK -3.6%, DT -3.5%, FTE -3.4%, VZ -2.0%, TEF -1.9%... Other news: POR -9.3% (announces plans to offer approx 10.85 mln shares of common stock), GM -6.8% (files to delay its 10-K; anticipates receiving from its auditor an opinion expressing substantial doubt about its ability to continue as a going concern), F -4.3% (announces launch of debt restructuring initiatives as part of company's transformation plan)... Analyst comments: AA -6.1% (Hearing Tier 1 cutting target in half to $3 from $6).
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
3/5/2009 8:30 AM EST
"A constant struggle, a ceaseless battle to bring success from inhospitable surroundings, is the price of all great achievements."
-- Orison Swett Marden
After a one-day bounce in a tremendously oversold market, we are poised to gap right back down again to start the day. The problem is that we just can't seem to fully come to grips with our tremendous economic problems. We all know things are bad, but the market has not been able to fully discount them.
As an ongoing concern, this morning we have news that the auditors of General Motors (GM) say that the automaker may not be able to continue. Morningstar is saying that Citigroup (C) , Bank of America (BAC) , State Street (STT) , PNC Financial (PNC) , SunTrust (STI) , Fifth Third (FITB) and KeyCorp (KEY) are likely to fail the governmental stress tests for banks.
It was the banks and General Electric (GE) that held back the market bounce yesterday. There was quite a bit of strong action in semiconductors, energy and commodity-related names, but without financials, the bounce fizzled badly in the last few minutes of trading. The financials are the big drag again this morning and are causing the gap down.
There was quite a bit of hubbub yesterday over a prediction that the market is close to its lows for the year. I sure hope that is the case, but there is no way that the market action allows me to embrace that idea at this time. At the moment, we can't even hold on to the rather tame bounce we had yesterday. If that is the best sign we have that a bottom is in, then we are in trouble.
What I really dislike about the constant bottom calls is that they help to produce the cycle of hope and disappointment that is so painful in a bear market. If you constantly are looking for lows and are consistently disappointed, it creates despair and misery. Emotionally, it is far better to stay cautious and slow to embrace the idea that the worst is over.
As I mentioned in my closing post yesterday, I was optimistic that we may have a bit more upside to come. The poor open we are facing this morning certainly doesn't help in that regard but is typical during a bear market, which is why I'm very slow to trust the idea that the market has made a meaningful turn.
Our big problem remains what it has been for some time now. We have no clarity when it comes to the bank problems. Geithner's bank bailout plans are confusing and incomplete, and investors have little confidence that the stimulus and mortgage plans are going to help us.
So what do we do? Don't get excited over sensationalist calls over major market turns. When the market is better, we will have plenty of opportunities to profit. The key right now is to stay patient, maybe do some very short-term trading, but to remain focused on protecting capital.
You aren't going to find a market much tougher than this, but out of ceaseless battle to protect and grow our capital will eventually come success. Stay tough.
-----------------------------
Ülespoole avanevad:
Gapping up In reaction to strong earnings/guidance/same store sales: BBI +46.8%, CSR +15.8%, SIGM +11.2% (also upgraded to Buy at Collins Stewart), HOTT +9.1%, WTW +8.6% (light volume), ADBE +7.8% (also upgraded to Market Perform at Friedman Billings, upgraded to Buy at UBS and upgraded to Buy at Jefferies), FDO +7.3%, GA +6.5%, FLY +6.4% (light volume), AUY +5.5%, MR +4.9% (light volume), WMT +2.6%... M&A news: TRA +5.5% (Terra Industries Board of Directors rejects CF Industries' unsolicited exchange offer)... Select gold/silver related names ticking higher: SLV +2.1%, GG +1.2%, NEM +1.1%, GLD +1.0%... Analyst comments: BIDU +2.3% (upgraded to Buy at Citigroup).
Allapoole avanevad:
Gapping down In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance/same store sales: GYMB -35.1% (also downgraded to Neutral at JPMorgan), URBN -10.1%, MATK -9.5%, CCRN -7.8%, DAR -7.4%, PETM -6.9%, GD -6.6%, CIEN -6.4%, GPS -2.9% (also downgraded to Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley)... M&A news: CF -2.4% (Terra Industries Board of Directors rejects CF Industries' unsolicited exchange offer)... Select financials pulling back following weakness overseas and Moody's commentary on select names: BCS -17.8%, PUK -17.5% (Insurers fall in the UK - DJ), AEG -15.4%, ING -15.1%, LYG -14.6% (UK Asset Plan for LYG hits snags - WSJ), IBN -8.2%, PRU -7.4%, WFC -7.1% (Moody's reviews for downgrade Wells Fargo's ratings), HBC -6.7%, USB -6.4% (tgt lowered to $9 at FBR), MET -5.0%, AXA -5.0%, RF -4.5%, JPM -4.2% (Moody's puts negative rating outlook on JP Morgan), STD -4.2%, BEN -4.2% (initiated with Sell at Citigroup), UBS -4.0%, XL -4.0% (announces that Chairman of the Board has decided not to stand for re-election), DB -3.9%, MS -3.4%, BAC -2.9% (Moody's reviews for downgrade Bank of America Ratings), CS -2.8%, GS -2.7%, C -2.7% (Itau-Unibanco denies talks to buy Citi's Banamex - DJ)... Select oil/gas related names trading lower with weakness in crude: E -4.4%, TOT -3.8%, SLB -3.4%, COP -2.5%, XOM -2.1% (plans to invest between $25-$30 bln annually over the next 5 yrs, to meet expected long-term growth in world energy demand), RDS.A -2.0%, CVX -2.0%, BP -1.0%... Select metals/mining names showing weakness: AAUK -6.5%, BBL -6.5%, BHP -6.3%, RIO -5.7% (downgraded to Neutral at BofA/Merrill), RTP -5.4%, MT -4.3%, FCX -4.1%, HMY -2.2%... Select drybulk shipping names trading lower: EGLE -10.7%, DRYS -10.3%, EXM -7.1%, FRO -5.3%, TBSI -4.3%... Select aerospace/defense names trading lower following GD guidance: BA -1.7%, TXT -1.4%... Select communications/telecom related names showing early weakness: VOD -3.9%, CHL -3.7%, NOK -3.6%, DT -3.5%, FTE -3.4%, VZ -2.0%, TEF -1.9%... Other news: POR -9.3% (announces plans to offer approx 10.85 mln shares of common stock), GM -6.8% (files to delay its 10-K; anticipates receiving from its auditor an opinion expressing substantial doubt about its ability to continue as a going concern), F -4.3% (announces launch of debt restructuring initiatives as part of company's transformation plan)... Analyst comments: AA -6.1% (Hearing Tier 1 cutting target in half to $3 from $6).
January Factory Orders -1.9% vs -3.5% consensus, prior revised to -4.9% from -3.9%
turg hüppab veidi üles
turg hüppab veidi üles
Küsimus: "Pennystock, aga market cap $5.5 miljardit?"
Vastus: Citigroup (C) - $0.97
Vastus: Citigroup (C) - $0.97
Campbell Soup (CPB) market cap 9,3 mlrd., ehk pea kaks Citit. Ma ei tea küll kas suffiksi nuudlisupp ka noteeritud on, aga usutavasti see ka lähenemas Citi valuatsioonile.
FAS kukub pikkade sammudega. Mis tasemele see võib kukkuda? Kui läheneb nullile kas see tähendab siis finantssektori hukku?!
To dol: Kindlasti see seda ei tähenda (veel) sest FAS on 3x võimendusega (päeva sisene), üleüldse pikaajaliselt erineb see sektori performancest. Pigem tuleb siin mingil taseme reverse split - hinna tasandamiseks.
Finantssektori hukk selles kontekstis nagu meie seda klassikalises kapitalistlikus kontekstis ette kujutame näib praeguse seisuga ära jäävat. Samas ma ei ole kindel, et see, mis selle asemel olema saab, parem on. Finantsinstitutsioonid muutuvad millekski kolhoosi ja ministeeriumi vahepealseks ning sõnad "limiit" ja "fond" saavad olema pigem tähenduses Vinni Näidissovhoos-Tehnikum 1984, kui selles tähenduses, milles neid praegu mõistetakse. Hetkel on poliitikud jätkuvalt "behind the curve," kuid mida päev edasi, seda dramaatilisem saab ilmselt olema antud kriisi lõpplahendus. Või arvab keegi, et kõik saab veel kohe korda? Paljalt kahju, mida on tehtud capital-based pensionisüsteemidele arenenud maailmas on selline, et kuskil saab keegi varsti päris kurjaks. Sellele aga järgneb poliitiline ebastabiilsus. Kui käesoleva kuu lõpuks veidi rohkem selgust ja visibility't ei ole, siis on asjalood sügiseks päris halvad.