Võrdlemisi heitlik päev eile USA börsidel vaatamata sellele, et tarbijate kindlustunne näitas üle kaheksa aasta suurimat tõusu. Viimane vähendab kääre jaemüüginumbritega ning on rohkem kooskõlas pühadeeelse ostuhullusega, ent tegemist on jätkuvalt väga madala kindlustunde tasemega (novembri number 56.0 punkti vs ajalooline keskmine 92,1 punkti). Turuosalised üritavad ilmselt mingit optimismi Euroopa tippkohtumise eel säilitada aga näib, et iga päevaga muutub ülesanne järjest keerulisemaks kui negatiivseid uudiseid voolab peale. Itaalia suutis eile korraliku nõudluse juures võlakirju müüa, ent investorid nõuavad järjest kõrgeimaid riskipreemiaid. Lisaks vajasid eile 192 Euroopa panka 265,5 miljardi euro ulatuses 7-päevast laenu EKP-st, mis on läinud kahe aasta kõrgeim tase ning peegeldab kasvanud pingeid rahaturgudel.
Viimase stressi ei aidanud eile sugugi leevendada S&P otsus muuta pankade puhul oma reitingusüsteemi, mis tõi 15 globaalse panga jaoks kaasa madalama võlareitingu. Võttes arvesse kasvanud vastaspoole riske ja lühiajalise finantseerimise probleeme rahaturgudel, siis madalamad reitingud ei ole sellises keskkonnas meeldiv uudis ning ligi protsendi jagu miinusesse vajunud S&P 500 futuur on seda uudist ka kajastamas. Euroopa on alustamas samuti sarnase langusega.
Makrokalender on täna võrdlemisi tihe. Mõned olulisemad neist:
09.00 Saksamaa oktoobri jaemüük
10.55 Saksamaa oktoobri ja novembri tööturustatistika
11.00 Ecofini kohtumine
12.00 Eurotsooni novembri esmane inflatsiooninäit
12.00 Eurotsooni oktoobrikuu töötusemäär
14.30 USA Challengeri novembri koondamisküsitlus
15.15 USA ADP novembri küsitlus
16.45 Chicago novembri PMI
17.00 USA pooleliolevad majade müügitehingud
21.00 Beige Book
Saksamaa oktoobri jaemüük arvatust nõrgem, kui aastasel baasil näidati oodatud 2,0%lise kasvu asemel langust -0,4%. Septembri näit revideeriti aga 0,3% pealt 0,6% peale.
Tänast sentimenti on väidetavalt negatiivselt mõjutamas ka turul levivad jutud, et homme avaldatav Hiina töötleva tööstuse PMI indeks jääb alla 50 punkti. Iseenesest HSBC koostatav PMI indeks seda ohtu kajastas ning konsensus ootabki 49,8 punktist näitu, ent ilmselt peljatakse just konsensusele allajäämist.
Mida lähemale järgmise nädala Euroopa Liidu tippkohtumine jõuab, seda suuremat vastuseisu Merkel Eurobondide ja EKP poolse täiendava toe vastu näitab, mis tekitab küsimuse, et kas on üldse lootust näha 9. detsembril mingit märkimisväärset kokkulepet. FT kirjutab, et lisaks pankadele on potentsiaalse eurotsooni lagunemisega oma riskiplaanides arvestamas ka ettevõtted.
Car manufacturers, energy groups, consumer goods firms and other multinationals are taking care to minimise risks by placing cash reserves in safe investments and controlling non-essential expenditure. Siemens, the engineering group, has even established its own bank in order to deposit funds with the European Central Bank.
Some are examining expert advice on the legal consequences of a eurozone split for cross-border commercial contracts and loan agreements. By contrast, most small and medium-sized firms have made few, if any financial and legal preparations.
Car manufacturers, energy groups, consumer goods firms and other multinationals are taking care to minimise risks by placing cash reserves in safe investments and controlling non-essential expenditure. Siemens, the engineering group, has even established its own bank in order to deposit funds with the European Central Bank.
Some are examining expert advice on the legal consequences of a eurozone split for cross-border commercial contracts and loan agreements. By contrast, most small and medium-sized firms have made few, if any financial and legal preparations.
DAX püsib septembri keskpaigas alanud kanalis. Erko, palun lisa siia DAX-i 200- ja 50-päeva graafik!
Saksamaa töötute arv vähenes novembris 20 000 inimese võrra (oodati 5 000) ja töötusmäär langes seejuures 10 baaspunkti võrra 6,9% peale.
DAX 2 kuud
DAX 6 kuud
DAX 6 kuud
Eurotsooni novembri inflatsioon 3,0% vs oodatud 3,0% ning püsides samal tasemel võrreldes oktoobriga. Negatiivselt üllatas aga oktoobri töötuse määr, mis kerkis kuuga 10,2% pealt 10,3% peale. Bloombergi konsensus ootas aga samaks jäämist. Nagu Risto postitatud statistikast näeme, liigub Saksamaa ühes suunas ja põhimõtteliselt kogu ülejäänud eurotsoon teises suunas. Isegi Prantsusmaa võitleb juba mõnda aega tõusule pöördunud tööpuudusega.
Business Insideris on ära toodud väike lõik intervjuust, mis on läbi viidud Morningstari poolt FedEx`i IR (Investor Relations) direktoriga. Teatavasti peetakse FedExi suguseid firmasid majanduse suunanäitajateks, kuna firma puutub oma teenuste pakkumisel kokku tuhandete firmadega ning omab väga head ülevaadet sellest, kui aktiivselt ettevõtetes äritegevus käib ja millised meeleolud valitsevad.
FedExi esindaja sõnul seisab maailmamajandus silmitsi küll mitmete väljakutsetega,aga reaalne olukord on hetkel siiski üsna positiivne ning ettevõtted on lähituleviku osas pigem optimistlikult meelestatud.
So, we base our outlook from what we see every night and day in our Package systems, the traffic that we see going through those systems, but we also base it on the tens of thousands of conversations that we’re having with customers around the globe each week, and those customers are optimistic, cautiously optimistic over the next few months and quarters, and that’s the basis of our cautiously optimistic outlook for the economy.”
FedExi esindaja sõnul seisab maailmamajandus silmitsi küll mitmete väljakutsetega,aga reaalne olukord on hetkel siiski üsna positiivne ning ettevõtted on lähituleviku osas pigem optimistlikult meelestatud.
So, we base our outlook from what we see every night and day in our Package systems, the traffic that we see going through those systems, but we also base it on the tens of thousands of conversations that we’re having with customers around the globe each week, and those customers are optimistic, cautiously optimistic over the next few months and quarters, and that’s the basis of our cautiously optimistic outlook for the economy.”
China cuts Reserve ratio by 50 bps.
Nii Euroopa kui USA aktsiaturud selle peale ka plusspoolele liikunud
Nii Euroopa kui USA aktsiaturud selle peale ka plusspoolele liikunud
Erko, ma soovisin 200- ja 50-päeva keskmise graafikut. Palun vabandust, põhjus oli minu ebatäpses küsimises!
heh, siis mu esimene kahtlustus oli ikka õige. aga palun...
Hiina langetas esimest korda alates 2008. aastast pankade kohustusliku reservimäära 50 baaspunkti võrra, eesmärgiga aktiviseerida pankade laenutegevust. Pikemalt Bloombergist.
Maailma keskpangad otsustasid pakkuda koordineeritud likviidsustuge. SPY on selle peale hüpanud 2% plussi
üks jupp ühisest statement'st
These central banks have agreed to lower the pricing on the existing temporary U.S. dollar liquidity swap arrangements by 50 basis points so that the new rate will be the U.S. dollar overnight index swap (OIS) rate plus 50 basis points. This pricing will be applied to all operations conducted from December 5, 2011. The authorization of these swap arrangements has been extended to February 1, 2013. In addition, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank, and the Swiss National Bank will continue to offer three-month tenders until further notice. As a contingency measure, these central banks have also agreed to establish temporary bilateral liquidity swap arrangements so that liquidity can be provided in each jurisdiction in any of their currencies should market conditions so warrant.
These central banks have agreed to lower the pricing on the existing temporary U.S. dollar liquidity swap arrangements by 50 basis points so that the new rate will be the U.S. dollar overnight index swap (OIS) rate plus 50 basis points. This pricing will be applied to all operations conducted from December 5, 2011. The authorization of these swap arrangements has been extended to February 1, 2013. In addition, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank, and the Swiss National Bank will continue to offer three-month tenders until further notice. As a contingency measure, these central banks have also agreed to establish temporary bilateral liquidity swap arrangements so that liquidity can be provided in each jurisdiction in any of their currencies should market conditions so warrant.
ilmselt pigistatakse nüüd EURi lühikesi positsioone ka korralikult. EUR/USD +1,3% @ 1,3480
Tänud, Erko! Kokku on saanud kaks olulist tähist: 50-p keskmine ja psühholoogiliselt oluline 6000 punkti. Viimasega on pikalt maadeldud. Kui need kaks ületatakse, on lihtsam 200-p keskmist murdma minna. Tõusutrendist saabki hakata rääkima alles viimati mainitu läbimisel.
Väike optimismi süst reedeseks tööjõuraportiks
November ADP Employment Change 206K vs 125K Briefing.com consensus
November ADP Employment Change 206K vs 125K Briefing.com consensus
Gapping up
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: SDRL +3.3%, AEO +2.8%.
Financial related names showing strength: LYG +8.5%, DB +6.9%, CS +6.9%, UBS +6.3%, IRE +5.3%, MS +5.2%, C +5%, STD +4.7%, GS +4.7%, BCS +4.6%, BAC +3.5%.
Metals/mining stocks trading higher: MT +8.6%, RIO +7%, BBL +7%, HMY +5.9%, BHP +5.9%, FCX +5%, GFI +4.7%, AU +4.3%, GDX +2.2%, GLD +1%, SLV +0.4%.
Select oil/gas related names showing strength: BP +4.9%, NE +4.6%, TOT +4.1%, STO +4.1%, WFT +4.1%, E +3.8%, RDS.A +3.2%, CVX +2.6%.
A few China internet related names are trading higher: YOKU +2.5%, SINA +1.9%, BIDU +1.8%.
Other news: AMR +30.8% (AMR and American Airlines Receive Court Orders Enabling Continued Normal Business Operations), CYTX +5.8% (ticking higher, Celution One System has been granted CE Mark approval), TSCO +3.9% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), ELN +3.8% (entered into a manufacturing agreement for the supply of the active pharmaceutical ingredient for ELND005 with Lonza Group AG), GPOR +0.7% (announces pricing of public offering of common stock).
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: SDRL +3.3%, AEO +2.8%.
Financial related names showing strength: LYG +8.5%, DB +6.9%, CS +6.9%, UBS +6.3%, IRE +5.3%, MS +5.2%, C +5%, STD +4.7%, GS +4.7%, BCS +4.6%, BAC +3.5%.
Metals/mining stocks trading higher: MT +8.6%, RIO +7%, BBL +7%, HMY +5.9%, BHP +5.9%, FCX +5%, GFI +4.7%, AU +4.3%, GDX +2.2%, GLD +1%, SLV +0.4%.
Select oil/gas related names showing strength: BP +4.9%, NE +4.6%, TOT +4.1%, STO +4.1%, WFT +4.1%, E +3.8%, RDS.A +3.2%, CVX +2.6%.
A few China internet related names are trading higher: YOKU +2.5%, SINA +1.9%, BIDU +1.8%.
Other news: AMR +30.8% (AMR and American Airlines Receive Court Orders Enabling Continued Normal Business Operations), CYTX +5.8% (ticking higher, Celution One System has been granted CE Mark approval), TSCO +3.9% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), ELN +3.8% (entered into a manufacturing agreement for the supply of the active pharmaceutical ingredient for ELND005 with Lonza Group AG), GPOR +0.7% (announces pricing of public offering of common stock).
Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: OVTI -10.6%, UTI -9.5%.
Other news: GTY -4.3% (light volume, serves notice to Getty Petroleum Marketing terminating the master lease), BBEP -3.3% (Quicksilver Resources announces commencement of public offering for units of BreitBurn Energy Partners L.P.), TEL -2.7% (in exclusive negotiations to acquire Deutsch; expected to be accretive by ~$0.20 in fiscal 2013), NNN -2.6% (announced a 6 mln share common stock offering), MAGS -1.6% modestly pulling back following jump higher yesterday on earnings).
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: OVTI -10.6%, UTI -9.5%.
Other news: GTY -4.3% (light volume, serves notice to Getty Petroleum Marketing terminating the master lease), BBEP -3.3% (Quicksilver Resources announces commencement of public offering for units of BreitBurn Energy Partners L.P.), TEL -2.7% (in exclusive negotiations to acquire Deutsch; expected to be accretive by ~$0.20 in fiscal 2013), NNN -2.6% (announced a 6 mln share common stock offering), MAGS -1.6% modestly pulling back following jump higher yesterday on earnings).