Ja edasise kärpimise tõenäosus langes veelgi.
Madis, selleks, et tuvastada mulli olemasolu ei ole vaja üldse numbrites tuhnida. Pilk graafikule ütleb kõik. Ma näen massihüsteeriat. Paraboolne tõus lõppeb alati kollapsiga!
Ma tahaks samuti nagu Jim küsida, kus need inimesed 10 aastat tagasi olid? Siis ei tahtnud mitte keegi naftat omada, ei tahetud ka kulda ja eurot. Need olid täiesti perspektiivitud kohad.
Samas, ma usun, et nafta tipuni läheb veel natuke aega. Tipp peaks nägema välja terav ja dramaatiline - nagu kulla graafik. Kui me saame sellise tipu, siis alles läheb väljaspääsu suunas tormijooksuks.
Ma tahaks samuti nagu Jim küsida, kus need inimesed 10 aastat tagasi olid? Siis ei tahtnud mitte keegi naftat omada, ei tahetud ka kulda ja eurot. Need olid täiesti perspektiivitud kohad.
Samas, ma usun, et nafta tipuni läheb veel natuke aega. Tipp peaks nägema välja terav ja dramaatiline - nagu kulla graafik. Kui me saame sellise tipu, siis alles läheb väljaspääsu suunas tormijooksuks.
martk, ma ei ole mingi kaardispets, aga see kaart ju ei näita, et siit ei võiks järgneda 20% lõikust ja siis aasta pärast uus ralli. Siin sa võrdled midagi, mis on tõusnud 5 korda millegagi mis on tõusnud peaaegu 20 korda, mõõtkava järgi otsustades kas natuke vara ei ole neid ühte patta panna? Rääkimata pikemaajalistest graafikutest, eelmise commodityralli puhul oli nafta tipp eelnenud kümnendi keskmisega võrreldes umbes 15 korda kõrgem ja kulla puhul veelgi rohkem (küll spetsiifiliematel põhjustel, aga siiski).
Saksamaa DAX +0.52%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 +0.10%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 +0.20%
Hispaania IBEX +0.04%
Venemaa MICEX -0.08%
Poola WIG +0.11%
Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 -0.32%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng +0.61%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) +4.83%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) +2.39%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq +0.41%
Tai Set -0.29%
India Sensex -0.52%
State of Flux
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
4/30/2008 9:15 AM EDT
By a continuing process of inflation, government can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens."
--John Maynard Keynes
The Federal Open Market Committee announces its latest decision on interest rates today at 2:15 pm ET. It is widely expected that they cut interest rates by a quarter point.
In the past, the market has always been anxious for reassurance that the Fed was ready, willing and anxious to deliver more cuts as the economy falters. This time, the market is focusing much more on the issue of inflation, and there are plenty of folks who are now saying that the Fed has gone too far with the cuts, just like they did back in 2001-'02. Back then, the easy money led to a housing bubble. This time it is creating a bubble in commodities.
Until now, the market has been pretty sanguine about the possibility of inflation. The thinking has been that our slowing domestic economy will help to cool inflationary pressures, while at the same time booming overseas economies will help to keep things from becoming too weak.
After one of the biggest months for the indices in many years, the Fed decision today puts us on the cusp of a thematic change in market thinking. For months now, the concern was getting out from under the bad debt issue. The Fed has dealt with that in various ways and things are getting better, but we still have to wrestle with a weak economy and the fallout from cheap money and a weak dollar.
If the Fed shows greater concern about inflation and the weak dollar today, that is likely to help accelerate a market rotation that has already started in the past week or so. Money has been slowly leaving groups like agriculture, base metals and even oil and moving into financials and big-cap technology.
The shift is not an easy one and will not take place without some setbacks. A weaker dollar and higher interest rates are negative for multinational companies that do a lot of business overseas and for banks that make money on the interest-rate spread. Nonetheless, these groups are more sheltered than the cyclical groups which have led us up lately.
The market is in a state of flux as we await to see what the Fed does. The big question is what will be the focus of market players going forward. It is going to be much more difficult to ignore inflation and the weak dollar if the Fed indicates it is going to pause in its rate cuts even though there are clear signs the economy is still struggling.
My game plan at this point is to simply not make any big bets, but to watch carefully for what market themes develop. I'm concerned that the Fed is going to be a negative for the indices, especially since they are a little technically extended and hitting some overhead resistance. After a great month, there may be some inclination to take profits as upside momentum cools. We lack clarity at this juncture, and that means we need to be patient and wait for the market to make up its mind. The Fed is going to help us do that.
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
4/30/2008 9:15 AM EDT
By a continuing process of inflation, government can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens."
--John Maynard Keynes
The Federal Open Market Committee announces its latest decision on interest rates today at 2:15 pm ET. It is widely expected that they cut interest rates by a quarter point.
In the past, the market has always been anxious for reassurance that the Fed was ready, willing and anxious to deliver more cuts as the economy falters. This time, the market is focusing much more on the issue of inflation, and there are plenty of folks who are now saying that the Fed has gone too far with the cuts, just like they did back in 2001-'02. Back then, the easy money led to a housing bubble. This time it is creating a bubble in commodities.
Until now, the market has been pretty sanguine about the possibility of inflation. The thinking has been that our slowing domestic economy will help to cool inflationary pressures, while at the same time booming overseas economies will help to keep things from becoming too weak.
After one of the biggest months for the indices in many years, the Fed decision today puts us on the cusp of a thematic change in market thinking. For months now, the concern was getting out from under the bad debt issue. The Fed has dealt with that in various ways and things are getting better, but we still have to wrestle with a weak economy and the fallout from cheap money and a weak dollar.
If the Fed shows greater concern about inflation and the weak dollar today, that is likely to help accelerate a market rotation that has already started in the past week or so. Money has been slowly leaving groups like agriculture, base metals and even oil and moving into financials and big-cap technology.
The shift is not an easy one and will not take place without some setbacks. A weaker dollar and higher interest rates are negative for multinational companies that do a lot of business overseas and for banks that make money on the interest-rate spread. Nonetheless, these groups are more sheltered than the cyclical groups which have led us up lately.
The market is in a state of flux as we await to see what the Fed does. The big question is what will be the focus of market players going forward. It is going to be much more difficult to ignore inflation and the weak dollar if the Fed indicates it is going to pause in its rate cuts even though there are clear signs the economy is still struggling.
My game plan at this point is to simply not make any big bets, but to watch carefully for what market themes develop. I'm concerned that the Fed is going to be a negative for the indices, especially since they are a little technically extended and hitting some overhead resistance. After a great month, there may be some inclination to take profits as upside momentum cools. We lack clarity at this juncture, and that means we need to be patient and wait for the market to make up its mind. The Fed is going to help us do that.
RE: Madis Toomsalu @ 30/04/08 15:32
Ja edasise kärpimise tõenäosus langes veelgi.
Kas kommi loogika on selles, et majandus on tugev, datast midagi väga negatiivset ei ilmnenud ja seetõttu pole vaja ka majanduse toetamiseks enam jätkuvalt intressi langetada?
Ja edasise kärpimise tõenäosus langes veelgi.
Kas kommi loogika on selles, et majandus on tugev, datast midagi väga negatiivset ei ilmnenud ja seetõttu pole vaja ka majanduse toetamiseks enam jätkuvalt intressi langetada?
Jah.
April Chicago PMI 48.3 vs 47.5 consensus ... ja see on näitaja, mis ennustab vägagi täpselt homme avaldatavat ISMi
Mingi meediaportaal tavaliselt pärast FEDi otsuseid teeb sellise analüüsi kus võtab eelmise FEDi pressika ja uue FEDi pressika ja siis markeerib muutused ja annab omapoolse kommentaari. Kas keegi saaks anda lingi eelmisele sellisele analüüsile?
madis43, nafta põhja tuleb lugeda 1999. aastast ehk siis nafta hind on tõusnud lühikese ajaga (10 aastat on lühike aeg) juba 12 korda. Ma ennustan, et tipp tehakse $130 või $150 juures. 130 dollari juures tekib kindlasti paus, kui ka kohe suurt kukkumist ei järgne. Kui hind on sinna kanti jõudnud, siis vaatan olukorra uuesti üle. 13-15-kordne hinnatõus on juba küps mull küll.
Kaart näitab seda, et see asi lõppeb halvasti ja kaart näitab ka potentsiaalseid tippe. Samuti näitab kaart seda, kuidas tipust tagasi tullakse - kui tõus oli paraboolne, siis tuleb ka langus paraboolne. Ning, kui juba hoog sees, siis ei huvita kedagi naftapullide hala, et pikas perspektiivis jääb naftat vähemaks või et nõudlus ju tegelikult kasvab.
Mina soovitaks eemale hoida, sest enamiku jaoks lõppevad need asjad kurvalt. Sina Madis arvatavasti ärksam ja suudad tulekahju tekkides esimeste hulgas väljuda.
Kaart näitab seda, et see asi lõppeb halvasti ja kaart näitab ka potentsiaalseid tippe. Samuti näitab kaart seda, kuidas tipust tagasi tullakse - kui tõus oli paraboolne, siis tuleb ka langus paraboolne. Ning, kui juba hoog sees, siis ei huvita kedagi naftapullide hala, et pikas perspektiivis jääb naftat vähemaks või et nõudlus ju tegelikult kasvab.
Mina soovitaks eemale hoida, sest enamiku jaoks lõppevad need asjad kurvalt. Sina Madis arvatavasti ärksam ja suudad tulekahju tekkides esimeste hulgas väljuda.
60. aastatel oli nafta keskmine hind alla kolme, 80ndatel oli 21-22 juures, 90. aastatel oli nafta hind 17-18 kandis, 2010 aastatel... kui graafikud midagi loevad, siis mina loeks välja, et järgmisel kümnendil oleks keskmine mõnuga üle saja. Ma ei suuda küll leida kuuekümnendate põhja, aga ma ei hindaks liikumist põhjade-tippude järgi, sest need võivad olla moodustunud mis iganes põhjustel (kasvõi hõbeda tipp eelmise pullijooksu ajal) ja võivad varieeruda vägagi suurel määral, ka seekord võib lühikeseks ajaks näha hindu, mida keegi praegu välja öeldagi ei julge. Lisaks aktsiates pikkade possidaga mässates ei ole ka ilgest spaigist suurt kasu.
Okei, üldiselt ma noodijoontelt väga ennustusi ei tahaks teha ja graafikuid ei saa siin eriti argumendiks pidada. Aga erinevatel põhjustel, millest mõningaid siin nii nafta kui commodity teemas juba on lahatud, tunduks praegu, et tulevikus on veel olulist demand destructionit oodata. Mis tasemetel see toimub, ei ole praegu veel ennustatav.
Okei, üldiselt ma noodijoontelt väga ennustusi ei tahaks teha ja graafikuid ei saa siin eriti argumendiks pidada. Aga erinevatel põhjustel, millest mõningaid siin nii nafta kui commodity teemas juba on lahatud, tunduks praegu, et tulevikus on veel olulist demand destructionit oodata. Mis tasemetel see toimub, ei ole praegu veel ennustatav.
Kas keegi julgeb teha mingit kiiret FEDi-eelset analüüsi? Mida teeb FED ja kudias turg käitub?
"The Fed is very likely going to find a way to signal a wait-and-see approach," Merrill Lynch economist David Rosenberg wrote this week. "That should not, by the way, be confused with an end-of-the-cycle approach."
Why the Fed's not done cutting rates
Why the Fed's not done cutting rates
Intressidelt siis 0.25% maha
Fed says economic activity 'remains weak'
FOMC lowers Fed Discount Rate 25 bps to 2.25% from 2.50% -Update-
Fed says uncertainty about inflation outlook remains high
FOMC lowers the Fed Funds target rate by 25 bps to 2.00%
FOMC lowers Fed Discount Rate 25 bps to 2.25% from 2.50% -Update-
Fed says uncertainty about inflation outlook remains high
FOMC lowers the Fed Funds target rate by 25 bps to 2.00%
2 liiget - Fisher ja Plosser - soovisid, et intressid jäetaks samale tasemele.
now what?
Peaks mainima et FEDi retoorikameistrid on teinud äärmiselt head tööd. Statement jätab neile suhteliselt vabad käed tulevikus, sest otsest väljavaadet sealt lugeda ei saa. Üpris neutraalne statement.
FOMC statement. Release Date: April 30, 2008
FOMC statement. Release Date: April 30, 2008
Ilgelt põnev värk, kaks pool pääeva kogu turg istus käte peal ja ootas seda whopping eventi.. lõpuks tuligi, kiire suhsäuh siia-sinna ja ongi kogu lõbu läbi. Sitt etendus, peaks ütlema.
Hmm, turuosalised siiski leiavad, et statement dovish biased kuna ei too välja otsest pausi mida viimastel päevadel on hakatud ootama. Good point. Dovish bias natuke jah.