Ospraie Management on New Yorgi investeerimisfirma, mis kunagi oli USA suurim toorainetele keskenduv hedge-fond. Tänaseks ollakse aga jõutud faasi, kus ettevõtte suurim fond on panustanud toorainete hindade valele suunale ning sulgeb seetõttu uksed. The Ospraie Fund on augustis kukkunud 26.7% ja aasta algusest 38.6%.
Usutavasti hakkab sellised teateid tulema ka mujalt sektorist, kuna panustajaid toorainete ja sealhulgas nafta hinna (kuigi Ospraie panustas peamiselt põllumajanduse futuuride liikumisele) edasisele tõusule jätkus rohkesti. Viimaste kuude jooksul on hind aga oma tippudest kõvasti langenud, kaubeldes $108 juures barreli eest. Nõudlus on vähenenud, sentiment on muutunud ning pakun, et kui mingit katastroofi just ei juhtu, ei näe me nafta hinna uut tippu vähemalt kolm aastat.
Ospraie Fondist kuulub 20% Lehman Brothersile. Ka Credit Suisse on sinna päris mahukalt varasid paigutanud.
Kusjuures see 20% on sees paketis, mida LEH püüab lisakapitali vastu maha parseldada. Seepärast ka LEHi järelturu kukkumine.
LEH olukord muutub üha raskemaks. CNBC andmeil peaks pärast USA sulgemist LEH oma edaspidiseid plaane selgitama.
2008 aasta madalaim EUR/USD tase 1.4364 pärineb 22. jaanuarist ... tänane päeva põhi seni 1.4384 .. vaid 20 bp veel minna
USDi tõus on tõesti järsk olnud, kahe kuuga on 1.60 alt 1.44 lähedale liigutud. Kuigi USA majandustsükkel on euroalast ees ning intressimäärade vahe eurotsooniga (hoolimata ECB sõnavõttudest inflatsiooni kohta) hakkab vähenema, tundub see tõus liiga kiire. Ehk toimub nüüd mõningane rahunemine ja kurss stabiliseerub enne järgmist tõusu uuel tasemel.
Äkki homme:
ECB Press Conference
Crude Oil Inventories
FOMC Member Fisher Speaks
jms. naljakas killuke...
ECB Press Conference
Crude Oil Inventories
FOMC Member Fisher Speaks
jms. naljakas killuke...
Mis nüüd energia hindadesse ja hedge-fundidesse puutub... siis üks ulakas spekulatsioon käib turgudel ringi ka nafta ja Goldman Sachsi (GS) teemadel. Keegi ei oska täna öelda, kuidas on end positsioneerinud Wall Streeti viimase aja üks suurimaid naftapulle GS, kes veel loetud päevad/nädalad tagasi kinnitas oma $150list sihti ja vahepeal laululinnu kombel siristas: "$200line hind on tulemas, $200line hind on tulemas." Kui nüüd väga kangekaelselt on jäädud oma long-oil teooria juurde, siis trading lossi on viimastel nädalatel küll korralikult genereeritud.
(GS) Goldman Sachs: Asset price declines and spreads widening; Credit Suisse lowers Q3 and FY08 ests
Credit Suisse is lowering their Q3 ests on GS to $1.50 (consensus $2.19) from $2.15 (lowerd a few weeks ago), and lowering their FY08 to $13.50 from $14.50 (consensus $14.78). Firm cites the cost of asset price declines/spread widening across all products through to the end of August with weaker trading volumes and little in the way of investment banking activity.
GS eelturul $163.70 tasemel -0.98% languses.
Credit Suisse is lowering their Q3 ests on GS to $1.50 (consensus $2.19) from $2.15 (lowerd a few weeks ago), and lowering their FY08 to $13.50 from $14.50 (consensus $14.78). Firm cites the cost of asset price declines/spread widening across all products through to the end of August with weaker trading volumes and little in the way of investment banking activity.
GS eelturul $163.70 tasemel -0.98% languses.
Green Mtn Coffeen (GMCR) downgraded to Sell from Hold at Stifel
GMCRi osas oleme ka Pro all negatiivsed, kuigi seni on idee olnud üleval neutraalsena. Viimase aja tõusu järel oleme aga lühikeseks müügi aluseid uuesti üle vaatamas. Tänane downgrade peaks piisavalt kurja tegema, praegu oleksin müügipoolel.
Morgan Stanley oli esimene, Credit Suisse siis nüüd järgi. 27. augustil langetas MS oma kvartali kasumiprognoosi GS'ile $3.00 pealt $1.65le. Tol hetkel oli konsensus $2.80, nüüd on konsensus kõigest loetud päevadega alla kolisenud $2.19 peale. Credit Suisse siis MSist veelgi skeptilisem GSi tulevaste numbrite osas.
Saksamaa DAX -0.55%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 -1.39%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 -1.63%
Hispaania IBEX 35 -0.21%
Venemaa MICEX -2.73%
Poola WIG -0.25%
Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 +0.64%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng -2.17%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) -1.23%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) +0.11%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq +1.97%
Tai Set 50 -1.78%
India Sensex N/A (börs suletud)
Pick an Approach to Trade This Market
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
9/3/2008 8:30 AM EDT
For those who believe, no proof is necessary. For those who don't believe, no proof is possible. --Traditional Saying
On Tuesday, the market confounded many bulls by reversing downward and losing around 300 points, even though crude oil prices were down sharply. That is at odds with the hopeful thinking that lower energy and commodity prices will energize consumers, boost spending and bring a halt to our economic woes.
Unfortunately, the reality seems to be that lower oil comes with a price. That price is a weak international economy. For much of the year, oil and commodities were driven by strong demand in China, India, Brazil and other emerging economies. Now it is becoming clear that they are seeing some substantial slowing, just like we have been seen in the U.S. for a while now.
So now what? One approach, as illustrated by Jim Cramer, is to stick to the thesis that lower oil and better action in financials and homebuilders means that we should anticipate that the worst is over and put on substantial long positions. Jim has given us numerous posts lately about why it's time to be bullish and anticipate better market action ahead.
My approach to the market is quite different. I try not to anticipate, but to let the market be my guide. I want to react and become more aggressive as the action improves rather than hope that weak action will come to an end and turn back up.
Right now when I look at the charts of the major indices, I see no reason to believe that the bear market is near an end. I see weak charts struggling to hold on to support. More importantly, when I review the charts of individual stocks, I see little if any leadership. There are no groups jumping up and leading the charge. In fact, the best potential leaders, such as technology, are doing nothing.
You can always craft a very compelling bullish or bearish thesis for the market. In fact, at any time, you are going to find equally brilliant arguments for both sides of the market. Rather than just embrace one side or the other, I want the market to tell me who is right. If this market is really out of the woods and ready to begin a substantial rally, it will be quite evident.
Presently, the price action does not indicate that conditions are bullish. That might change, and if it does, then I'll be happy to be a bit late to the party. In the meantime, I see no good reason, other than hope, for holding substantial long positions.
We have a weak start shaping up this morning, even though oil is down once again. Overseas markets are mostly weak, and we don't have much news on the wires.
-----------------------------
Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: SNDA +3.8%... M&A news: CPS 2.1% (CFIUS completes review of proposed ChoicePoint acquisition; determined there are no unresolved national security concerns)... Select mortgage-related names showing strength following ABK news and metrics: ABK +12.4% (confirms regulatory approval for Connie Lee capital contribution; also releases selected monthly data for July 2008), RDN +4.9%, PMI +1.4%... Select airlines ticking higher with continued weakness in crude: UAUA +3.1%, CAL +3.1%, RYAAY +2.9%, JBLU +2.8%, LCC +2.3%, AAI +1.5%... Other news: MDVN +28.7% (Medivation and Pfizer enter into global agreement to co-develop and market Dimebon for the treatment of Alzheimer's and Huntington's Diseases), NBIX +13.5% (announces successful Elagolix PETAL study in endometriosis; phase II study meets primary bone mineral density and secondary efficacy), CSIQ +5.1% (Canadian Solar and GCL Silicon announce supply contracts), GILT +4.2% (still checking), KRY +4.2% (says in discussions with MIBAM regarding Revemin mill), SIGA +3.7% (awarded $55 mln by Federal Government to develop broader applications for its lead drug candidate ST-246), CLNE +3.7% (Cramer on CNBC says that Nancy Pelosi, Democratic speaker of the House, is a shareholder of CLNE), LEH +1.4% (WSJ reports Ospraie closes largest fund as commodity losses swell; also Reuters reports that HSBC, China Bank also interested in Lehman)... Analyst comments: THC +3.3% (upgraded to Buy at Deutsche Bank), BP +1.7% (upgraded to Buy at Goldman - DJ), X +1.3% (upgraded to Outperform from Sector Perform at CIBC).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: GLW -7.7%, CAG -7.7% (also downgraded to Neutral at JPMorgan and downgraded to Underperform from Buy at Merrill), JOYG -4.2%, DCI -4.1%, WFR -2.8%... Select metals/mining names showing continued weakness: HL -5.7%, BBL -5.0%, ACH -5.0%, BHP -4.9%, RTP -3.2%, AAUK -2.1%, MT -1.5%... Other news: FRX -8.3% (reports Ph. III clinical studies of aclidinium bromide vs placebo in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease), RTIX -7.8% (still checking), EXM -4.4% and DRYS -2.6% (the Baltic Dry Index continues to fall, dropping 320 points to close at 6,146 overnight), NOK -3.6% (still checking), FNM -3.1% and FRE -2.5% (Chinese banks cut Fannie, Freddie debt - WSJ), SHPGY -2.3% (still checking)... Analyst comments: BCS -3.3% (downgraded to Sell at RBS - Reuters), MFE -3.3% (downgraded to Underperform at FBR), PVH -2.0% (downgraded to Neutral at Credit Suisse), TWX -1.8% (downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Bernstein), TOT -1.0% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman- DJ).
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
9/3/2008 8:30 AM EDT
For those who believe, no proof is necessary. For those who don't believe, no proof is possible. --Traditional Saying
On Tuesday, the market confounded many bulls by reversing downward and losing around 300 points, even though crude oil prices were down sharply. That is at odds with the hopeful thinking that lower energy and commodity prices will energize consumers, boost spending and bring a halt to our economic woes.
Unfortunately, the reality seems to be that lower oil comes with a price. That price is a weak international economy. For much of the year, oil and commodities were driven by strong demand in China, India, Brazil and other emerging economies. Now it is becoming clear that they are seeing some substantial slowing, just like we have been seen in the U.S. for a while now.
So now what? One approach, as illustrated by Jim Cramer, is to stick to the thesis that lower oil and better action in financials and homebuilders means that we should anticipate that the worst is over and put on substantial long positions. Jim has given us numerous posts lately about why it's time to be bullish and anticipate better market action ahead.
My approach to the market is quite different. I try not to anticipate, but to let the market be my guide. I want to react and become more aggressive as the action improves rather than hope that weak action will come to an end and turn back up.
Right now when I look at the charts of the major indices, I see no reason to believe that the bear market is near an end. I see weak charts struggling to hold on to support. More importantly, when I review the charts of individual stocks, I see little if any leadership. There are no groups jumping up and leading the charge. In fact, the best potential leaders, such as technology, are doing nothing.
You can always craft a very compelling bullish or bearish thesis for the market. In fact, at any time, you are going to find equally brilliant arguments for both sides of the market. Rather than just embrace one side or the other, I want the market to tell me who is right. If this market is really out of the woods and ready to begin a substantial rally, it will be quite evident.
Presently, the price action does not indicate that conditions are bullish. That might change, and if it does, then I'll be happy to be a bit late to the party. In the meantime, I see no good reason, other than hope, for holding substantial long positions.
We have a weak start shaping up this morning, even though oil is down once again. Overseas markets are mostly weak, and we don't have much news on the wires.
-----------------------------
Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: SNDA +3.8%... M&A news: CPS 2.1% (CFIUS completes review of proposed ChoicePoint acquisition; determined there are no unresolved national security concerns)... Select mortgage-related names showing strength following ABK news and metrics: ABK +12.4% (confirms regulatory approval for Connie Lee capital contribution; also releases selected monthly data for July 2008), RDN +4.9%, PMI +1.4%... Select airlines ticking higher with continued weakness in crude: UAUA +3.1%, CAL +3.1%, RYAAY +2.9%, JBLU +2.8%, LCC +2.3%, AAI +1.5%... Other news: MDVN +28.7% (Medivation and Pfizer enter into global agreement to co-develop and market Dimebon for the treatment of Alzheimer's and Huntington's Diseases), NBIX +13.5% (announces successful Elagolix PETAL study in endometriosis; phase II study meets primary bone mineral density and secondary efficacy), CSIQ +5.1% (Canadian Solar and GCL Silicon announce supply contracts), GILT +4.2% (still checking), KRY +4.2% (says in discussions with MIBAM regarding Revemin mill), SIGA +3.7% (awarded $55 mln by Federal Government to develop broader applications for its lead drug candidate ST-246), CLNE +3.7% (Cramer on CNBC says that Nancy Pelosi, Democratic speaker of the House, is a shareholder of CLNE), LEH +1.4% (WSJ reports Ospraie closes largest fund as commodity losses swell; also Reuters reports that HSBC, China Bank also interested in Lehman)... Analyst comments: THC +3.3% (upgraded to Buy at Deutsche Bank), BP +1.7% (upgraded to Buy at Goldman - DJ), X +1.3% (upgraded to Outperform from Sector Perform at CIBC).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: GLW -7.7%, CAG -7.7% (also downgraded to Neutral at JPMorgan and downgraded to Underperform from Buy at Merrill), JOYG -4.2%, DCI -4.1%, WFR -2.8%... Select metals/mining names showing continued weakness: HL -5.7%, BBL -5.0%, ACH -5.0%, BHP -4.9%, RTP -3.2%, AAUK -2.1%, MT -1.5%... Other news: FRX -8.3% (reports Ph. III clinical studies of aclidinium bromide vs placebo in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease), RTIX -7.8% (still checking), EXM -4.4% and DRYS -2.6% (the Baltic Dry Index continues to fall, dropping 320 points to close at 6,146 overnight), NOK -3.6% (still checking), FNM -3.1% and FRE -2.5% (Chinese banks cut Fannie, Freddie debt - WSJ), SHPGY -2.3% (still checking)... Analyst comments: BCS -3.3% (downgraded to Sell at RBS - Reuters), MFE -3.3% (downgraded to Underperform at FBR), PVH -2.0% (downgraded to Neutral at Credit Suisse), TWX -1.8% (downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Bernstein), TOT -1.0% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman- DJ).
Muideks... XHB ja housing'u teemadel oleme tuliseid vaidlusi siin foorumites korduvalt maha pidanud. Goldman Sachs'i jaemüügikonverentsil on Home Depot tegevdirektor ütlemas, et "oleme väga lähedale jõudnud/jõudmas kinnisvaraturu põhja suhtes". Lühikeseksmüügi guru Doug Kass on seda seisukohta täna ka toetamas, kuid üritab üleliigset optimismi jahutada sellega, et Home Depot CEO ei ole vastanud küsimusele, et kui kiire saab olema kinnisvaraturu taastumine põhja saavutamise järel.
Njah, GMCR on -2% pealt kukkunud -10% peale, ehk tundub tänaseks aitavat. Loodan juba, et tuleb mingi ime läbi natuke üles tagasi, saaks ka idee võimalikuks avamiseks parema lähtekoha.
(FNM) Fannie Mae sells $1 bln 3-mo bills at 2.553 pct vs 2.580 pct rate for $1 bln 3-mo sale on Aug 27 - Reuters
Sells $1 bln 6-mo bills at 2.858 pct vs 2.870 pct rate for $1 bln 6-mo sale on Aug 27
Aktsia kosub päris kenasti, hetkel juba positiivsele poolele trügimas.
Sells $1 bln 6-mo bills at 2.858 pct vs 2.870 pct rate for $1 bln 6-mo sale on Aug 27
Aktsia kosub päris kenasti, hetkel juba positiivsele poolele trügimas.
July Factory Orders +1.3% vs +1.0% consensus, prior revised to +2.1% from +1.7%
Turg saab tuge juurde.
Turg saab tuge juurde.
Mis halva uudise peale küll NOK uusi 52w põhju teeb?
Käive on nokia (NOK) puhul täna väga suur, kas on kusagilt mingi uudis tilkumas?
NOK 'i tõmbab see alla CNBC sõnutsi:
http://blogs.barrons.com/techtraderdaily/2008/09/03/qualcomm-cell-phone-replacement-cycle-lengthening/
http://blogs.barrons.com/techtraderdaily/2008/09/03/qualcomm-cell-phone-replacement-cycle-lengthening/