tänan iroonia eest
ma millegipärast mõtlesin, et teda peagi kaitsma tullakse, siiamaani on palju überbulle olnud
ehk valgustad täpsemalt
Aga mina ei nõustu FSLR osas. Jah, pikas perspektiivis tulevad AMAT ja GE ja kes kõik veel ja muudavad sektori commodity businessiks. Aga väga lühikeses perspektiivis (so siis päev, maksimaalselt kaks) on siiski tegemist krdi hea trading stockiga. Ja pakun, et need igapäevased defensed toovad ostuhuvi ka. Lisaks MLCO ja UBSW -le siis ka Cowen juba väljas kaitsmas. Ainult nafta miinus ilmselt hoiab hetkel veel tagasi seda.
PS Mõnevõrra pikemas perspektiivis on huvitav paar long AMAT short FSLR. Kui AMAT peaks oma solari spin-offima, siis tõenäoliselt voolab just FSLR aktsiast kiire raha välja, et AMATi solar unitit osta.
PS Mõnevõrra pikemas perspektiivis on huvitav paar long AMAT short FSLR. Kui AMAT peaks oma solari spin-offima, siis tõenäoliselt voolab just FSLR aktsiast kiire raha välja, et AMATi solar unitit osta.
Speedy, ei iroonitsenud. Ma tõepoolest arvan, et sa oled oma shordiga täna hommikul õigetel jälgedel. Tavaliselt sellised suured aktsiamüügid mõjuvad FSLR sugustele aktsiatele vägagi halvasti.
FSLR aktsiamüük oli juba ammu ju paika pandud ja seetõttu ei usu, et mõju kauemaks kui päevaseks ehmatuseks jätkub.
Täna oleks loogiline shortida NDAQ - NASDAQ OMX GROUP. :)
OMX osa käibest vist siiski väike.
OMX osa käibest vist siiski väike.
Jim,
Short FSLR, long AMAT on huvitav idee aga volatiilsused on neid kahel väga erinevad. Solar on AMATi puhul ikkagi suht väike osa ja kuigi selle mõju ilmselt ajapikku suureneb, siis isegi bull case stsenaariumi puhul ei pruugi tõus FSLRi upside riski katta.
Ja jällegi, it aint trading.
Short FSLR, long AMAT on huvitav idee aga volatiilsused on neid kahel väga erinevad. Solar on AMATi puhul ikkagi suht väike osa ja kuigi selle mõju ilmselt ajapikku suureneb, siis isegi bull case stsenaariumi puhul ei pruugi tõus FSLRi upside riski katta.
Ja jällegi, it aint trading.
MasterCard tgt raised to $367 at Stifel (320.00 )
Stifel raises their tgt on MA to $367 from $312 following co's annual investor day last week. Firm believes that while volume growth is certainly important, they believe mgmt's ability to raise its rev margins (up 137 bps y/y in 1Q08 and over 200 bps since 1Q06) has been - and will continue to be - the critical factor behind its impressive earnings growth and positive surprises. Firm is increasingly confident that top line margin expansion can continue as they now have a better understanding of how price increases work and why.
Midagi uut siin ei ole.
tuleb igaksjuhuks stopp paika seada, 260 on break-even ja sealt edasi ei lase
keegi võiks kaitsjate sõnad siia panna, briefingus veel pole
keegi võiks kaitsjate sõnad siia panna, briefingus veel pole
Enek,
Käibest on solar AMAT puhul väike osa jah. Aga kui panna sellele solar osale samasugune valuatsioon kui näiteks FSLR, siis selgub peaaegu, et firma sees on teine firma, mis on suurem kui kogu firma :)
Trading see tõesti pole jah. Kuigi ma usun, et see spin-off tehakse lähemal ajal ära.
Käibest on solar AMAT puhul väike osa jah. Aga kui panna sellele solar osale samasugune valuatsioon kui näiteks FSLR, siis selgub peaaegu, et firma sees on teine firma, mis on suurem kui kogu firma :)
Trading see tõesti pole jah. Kuigi ma usun, et see spin-off tehakse lähemal ajal ära.
Saksamaa DAX -0.27%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 +0.30%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 +0.25%
Hispaania IBEX +0.23%
Venemaa MICEX -0.79%
Poola WIG +0.21%
Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 -1.60%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng -1.83%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) -0.65%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) -0.73%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq -1.14%
Tai Set -0.41%
India Sensex -0.63%
Bulls Underestimate the Trouble
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
6/2/2008 4:33 PM EDT
A flurry of buying in the last 45 minutes of trading triggered some short-covering just as the bears were starting to gain a little confidence. The late-day spike took us well off the lows of the day, but we still finished solidly in the red on better than 2-to-1 negative breadth. Volume was down a bit from Friday, which is a slight positive, but even with the closing strength it still was a poor day.
The bulls' big argument at this point is that the market was wrong to sell off today on the debt downgrades of the major brokers because that news was already expected and priced in. The problem with that argument is that there is much more going on out there that the problems with banks. Even if you do think the worst is over for banks, there is little to indicate that they are going to turn up rather than flop around like a fish out of water and do nothing.
Technically, the indices look very dangerous at this point, and I'm certainly going to respect that and play some defense. On the other hand, there is some good trading in some areas of the market such as small-cap oils and coal, and those pockets of opportunity are likely to continue regardless of whether the big picture deteriorates.
---------------------------
Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: NCS +13.5%, XIN +10.7%, IFX +5.3%, TOL +1.6%, SAP +1.2%... Other news: LXRX +9.5% (Lexicon Pharma's drug candidate for carcinoid syndrome receives Fast Track Status from the FDA), ROYL +7.2% (continued strength from yesterday's 35%+ surge higher), UBS +5.3% (still checking), RBS +3.7% (advances on rights offering speculation - Bloomberg.com), LYG +3.2% (reconfirms the goal of underlying double-digit economic profit growth this year - Bloomberg.com), MVL +3.2% (will replace The Commerce Group in the S&P 400), GM +2.6% (to cease production at four truck production plants; GM to cut North American truck capacity by over 700K units and WSJ reports not expected to cut its dividend), MT +2.0% (Deutsche raises tgt on MT to $130; raises ests), BCE +1.9% (Canadian Supreme Court to hear BCE appeal), TMO +1.5% (announces acquisition of Chemito Technologies)... Analyst upgrades: GA +1.4% (initiated with Buy at Roth Capital), GOLD +1.3% (upgraded to Overweight at HSBC Securities), QCOM +1.2% (Hearing coverage assumed with a Buy at tier 1 firm).
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
6/2/2008 4:33 PM EDT
A flurry of buying in the last 45 minutes of trading triggered some short-covering just as the bears were starting to gain a little confidence. The late-day spike took us well off the lows of the day, but we still finished solidly in the red on better than 2-to-1 negative breadth. Volume was down a bit from Friday, which is a slight positive, but even with the closing strength it still was a poor day.
The bulls' big argument at this point is that the market was wrong to sell off today on the debt downgrades of the major brokers because that news was already expected and priced in. The problem with that argument is that there is much more going on out there that the problems with banks. Even if you do think the worst is over for banks, there is little to indicate that they are going to turn up rather than flop around like a fish out of water and do nothing.
Technically, the indices look very dangerous at this point, and I'm certainly going to respect that and play some defense. On the other hand, there is some good trading in some areas of the market such as small-cap oils and coal, and those pockets of opportunity are likely to continue regardless of whether the big picture deteriorates.
---------------------------
Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: NCS +13.5%, XIN +10.7%, IFX +5.3%, TOL +1.6%, SAP +1.2%... Other news: LXRX +9.5% (Lexicon Pharma's drug candidate for carcinoid syndrome receives Fast Track Status from the FDA), ROYL +7.2% (continued strength from yesterday's 35%+ surge higher), UBS +5.3% (still checking), RBS +3.7% (advances on rights offering speculation - Bloomberg.com), LYG +3.2% (reconfirms the goal of underlying double-digit economic profit growth this year - Bloomberg.com), MVL +3.2% (will replace The Commerce Group in the S&P 400), GM +2.6% (to cease production at four truck production plants; GM to cut North American truck capacity by over 700K units and WSJ reports not expected to cut its dividend), MT +2.0% (Deutsche raises tgt on MT to $130; raises ests), BCE +1.9% (Canadian Supreme Court to hear BCE appeal), TMO +1.5% (announces acquisition of Chemito Technologies)... Analyst upgrades: GA +1.4% (initiated with Buy at Roth Capital), GOLD +1.3% (upgraded to Overweight at HSBC Securities), QCOM +1.2% (Hearing coverage assumed with a Buy at tier 1 firm).
restricted virtuaalis (kuna juba pikk) aga mulle tundub, et ASH võiks runnida peale avanemist täna. Holder Harbinger Capital Fund ostis 216K stockki juurde $58.21 ja n.ö bullish vennad võiksid hakata ostma.
AU Optronics (AUO) downgraded to Neutral at Credit Suisse
Credit Suisse downgrades AUO to Neutral from Outperform saying better-than-expected results have not led to strong share price performance for AU Optronics. The firm notes the risk is that earnings could disappoint. The firm forecasts net profit to have peaked in 1Q08 (partly due to currency moves), which means the stock is unlikely to be re-rated further.
Huvitaval kombel on ettevõte ise kommenteerinud, et 2008. aastal võib tekkida olukord, kus LCD nõudlus ületab pakkumist. Ja lisaks:
Research firm DisplaySearch has said demand for laptop PCs that use liquid crystal displays (LCDs) will be strong from emerging markets, including China, Brazil, Russia and India, in the next two years.
Kuigi tuleb tunnistada, et akstsia reageering üle 100% ootusi ületanud esimese kvartali tulemustele valmistas pettumuse. Aga investeerimise eesmärgil võib siit leida hea idee. Ettevõte on hoolikalt jälgimas kulusid ning suudab marginaale hoida stabiilsena. LCD turu tugevusest annavad aimu mitmed tulemused (viimaste seas vist LG) ning Sony ja Samsungi LCD televiisoritele tehtavad hinnaalandused, mis peaksid nõudlust suurendama.
Mul on tunne, et täna tuleb finantsile hea päev. LEH taastus ilusti pärast kommentaare, et capital raise ei pruugigi vajalik olla, STT saab ainult positiivseid kommentaare kapitali lisamise järel, MER, MS, GS niisama pisut üles biditud eilse kukkumise järel. Positiivseid kommentaare ka mitmete teiste finantssektori ettevõtete kohta.
Bernanke retoorika harukordselt spetsiifiliselt ja täpselt sihutud.
Bernanke signals more rate cuts unlikely
Treasuries dip after Bernanke inflation remarks
Bernanke signals more rate cuts unlikely
Treasuries dip after Bernanke inflation remarks
USD on üsna püstloodis 100 bp tugevnenud Bernanke jutu peale
Parandused:
*sihitud
*erakordselt
*sihitud
*erakordselt
Indeksfutuurid kosuvad Bernanke kõnest hoogu saades. Finantssektorit tasuks täna teraselt radaril hoida, hetkel näitab korralikku kosumist. Ei tasuks unustada ka kell 17.00 avaldatavat factory orders-it, konsensus ootab -0.1%.
Finantssektor siiski esimestel minutitel kõva müügsurve alla sattunud ning eelturu edu on käest antud. Futuurid samuti juba neg poolele jõudnud.
Factory Orders +1.1% vs -0.1% consensus