Turg kaotab päris kiirelt kätte võidetud edu ning liigub üsna kiirelt allapoole, sh. GOOG vajunud jällegi -1.15% langusesse $468.70 tasemele ja finants tuleb samuti kiirelt allapoole.
Bank of America (BAC) agrees to buy back $35 mln in ARS from Mass. Govt agencies, üks probleem jälle vähem.
kuulasin desktop`i kommentaatorit ja ta mainis, et googl`il mingi neg uudis seoses neti reklaamimisega... ja et goog`li edulugu võib hakata lõppema... oskab keegi täpsemalt öelda?
GOOG Google: Microsoft browser threatens Google’s ad model - FT.com
FT.com reports Microsoft has unveiled its Internet Explorer 8 browser equipped with a privacy feature that could threaten the advertising model of web search rivals such as Google. Users of the browser can opt to access websites in private, hiding their personal details from search engines that use the information to target advertising at individuals. The feature, called InPrivate, has been dubbed in some blog postings as "porn mode", because it also hides the browsing history from other people using the same computer. However, Microsoft points to examples of buying birthday presents or searching for medical ailments as areas where InPrivate was also of benefit to customers. John Curran, a director at Microsoft UK, said: "Some people will always want to be ‘InPrivate', but there is a trade-off." Google has faced an outcry over the amount of information it collects from users of its services. David Mitchell, an information technology analyst at Ovum, said: "If the hype around privacy gains more credibility, more people will hit the private button. There is a potential threat here to click-through [display] advertising."
Potensiaalne oht on täitsa olemas, kuid seda mitte ainult MSFT poolt vaid ka teiste samas valdkonnas tegutsevate ettevõtete poolt.
ah siis nii...
martk: Southern California home sales jump 13.8% in July. "Mida rohkem turg langeb, seda rohkem tahavad pangad ja koduomanikud kinnisvarast loobuda, sest valu muutub väljakannatamatuks." Tehingu teostumiseks peab iga müüja leidma ka ostja ja viimastel kuudel on üldiselt pigem kasvanud tehingute arv viidanud sellele, et neid antud hinnatasemel juba ka leitakse.
krsitjani jutule kinnituseks ka üks graafik, kus müügitehingute aeglane tõus ka välja toodud:
Lisaks on California kinnisvaraturg kõige tähtsam, kuna mulli lõhkemine sai just sealt alguse ning ühtlasi on tegemist suurima turuga. Seetõttu on sealsed arengud kõige enam tähelepanu keskpunktis ning usutavasti saabub oluliste turgude hulgas pööre esimesena just seal.
"I'll be back" ütleks Arnie selle peale.
Tehingumahud on stabiliseerunud. Juhhei? Not so fast.
Tuleks ka tausta vaadata mahtude taga, NARi hinnangul moodustavad pankade poolt likvideeritavad positsioonid (short sales and foreclosures) moodustamas täna pea kolmandiku tehingumahtudest, aasta tagasi oli see osakaal pea olematu.
http://www.realtor.org/press_room/news_releases/2008/ehs_down_in_june
Minu arvates USA ehitajates (homebuilders) surnud kassi põrge.
Tuleks ka tausta vaadata mahtude taga, NARi hinnangul moodustavad pankade poolt likvideeritavad positsioonid (short sales and foreclosures) moodustamas täna pea kolmandiku tehingumahtudest, aasta tagasi oli see osakaal pea olematu.
http://www.realtor.org/press_room/news_releases/2008/ehs_down_in_june
Minu arvates USA ehitajates (homebuilders) surnud kassi põrge.
Sedavõrd positiivselt negatiivne ma ei oleks kuna tingimata ei ole kõige tähtsam "müüja" vaid ka "ostja" pool on tähtis. Elik asjaolu, et pankade sundmüük moodustab 1/3 ei tee ostjatest "sundostjaid" st ostjad võivad ostmata jätta sõltumata pankade sundpakkumistest. Pigem on see tehingute arv indikaatoriks, et sellelt hinnatasemelt osatakse teha rohkem noppeid tehinguteks... tõsi tehingute arvu suurema kasvu lootused võivad tekkida ka veelgi madalamatelt hinnatasemetelt.
KL, ja kui foreclosurid kolmandas kvartalis oma tipud teevad ning short sales hinnalanguse pidurdumise tõttu vähenema hakkab, kas siis see kolmandik muutub neljandikuks või kahendikuks ning kas siis sama suure hulga ostusoovide juures hinnalangus pidurdub veel või mitte? Talking like Arnold. :)
Kusjuures peakski tegema väikese küsitluse, kes millal pööret ennustab. Oleks huvitav lugeda. markt, KL ja kristjan (vihjamisi?) on oma arvamused välja öelnud, teiste omad ka teretulnud.
see on muidugi juba vana nali, aga mulle päris meeldis:
Steven Spielberg was discussing his new project -- an action docudrama
about famous composers starring top movie stars. Sylvester Stallone,
Steven Seagal, Bruce Willis, and Arnold Schwarzenegger being courted
for the top roles.
Spielberg really hoped to have the box office "oomph" of these
superstars, so he was prepared to allow them to select the composers
they would portray, as long as they among the most famous.
"Well," started Stallone, "I've always admired Mozart. I would love to
play him."
"Chopin has always been my favorite, and my image would improve if people
saw me playing the piano," said Willis. "I'll play him."
"I've always been partial to Strauss and his waltzes," said Seagal. "I'd
like to play him."
Spielberg was very pleased with these choices. "Sounds splendid." Then,
looking at Schwarzenegger, he asked, "Who do you want to be, Arnold?"
Arnold replied, "I'll be Bach."
Steven Spielberg was discussing his new project -- an action docudrama
about famous composers starring top movie stars. Sylvester Stallone,
Steven Seagal, Bruce Willis, and Arnold Schwarzenegger being courted
for the top roles.
Spielberg really hoped to have the box office "oomph" of these
superstars, so he was prepared to allow them to select the composers
they would portray, as long as they among the most famous.
"Well," started Stallone, "I've always admired Mozart. I would love to
play him."
"Chopin has always been my favorite, and my image would improve if people
saw me playing the piano," said Willis. "I'll play him."
"I've always been partial to Strauss and his waltzes," said Seagal. "I'd
like to play him."
Spielberg was very pleased with these choices. "Sounds splendid." Then,
looking at Schwarzenegger, he asked, "Who do you want to be, Arnold?"
Arnold replied, "I'll be Bach."
tehingute arvu kasv on pöörde üks eeltingimus, ma pole otseselt mingit aega küll välja pakkumas, millal see võiks hinnatõusuni viia. Zell arvas ca nädala tagasi bloombergis, et "kunagi 09 H1" vms.
Küsimus on tegelikult selles, kes on need ostjad. private/corporate, domestic/foreign... California kinnisvaralamast on juttu juba nii kaua olnud, et nii mõnigi ruudulise pearätiga härra Pärsia lahe idakaldalt võib arvata, et praegu on juba sobiv hetk oma naftadollarid sinnakanti kinnisvarasse investeerida. Sest kinnisvara ei saa teadupärast ju igavesti kukkuda... Sama asi siin - ma ei imestaks kui mõned vene ärimehed hakkaks varsti siin en grosse arendusi kokku ostma. Sedasorti kapital on aga spekulatiivne ja võib lahkuda sama kiiresti kui tuli. Turu kosumisest annaks märku domestic/private ostjate suur osakaal. Ega kuskilt California kinnisvaratehingute täpsemat statistikat ei saa?
Madis, eks see foreclosure'ite mahu vähenemine on täna siiski vaid oletus, kuid eks nende kasvutempo (või kahanemistempo) täna kindlasti juba olulise mõjuga ka kogu kv-turule.
Mis puudutab põhja saabumise aega, siis eks neid põhju alati raske tabada. Kuid ma arvaks, et 2009.a. II poolaasta võiks see umbes olla. Tänaseks ehk ca. 15-20% madalamate hindade juurest. Ma siiski ei usu, et see nüüd V kujuline põhi oleks, pigem U või ehk isegi L - hinnad enam ei vaju, kuid suurt tõusu ka ei tule.
Ma ka arvamusel, et see USA kinnisvarahindade liikumine oluline nii USA kui ka globaalse majanduse suhtes, seega kindlasti oluline teema.
Panin ka selle kohta küsitluse püsti.
Mis puudutab põhja saabumise aega, siis eks neid põhju alati raske tabada. Kuid ma arvaks, et 2009.a. II poolaasta võiks see umbes olla. Tänaseks ehk ca. 15-20% madalamate hindade juurest. Ma siiski ei usu, et see nüüd V kujuline põhi oleks, pigem U või ehk isegi L - hinnad enam ei vaju, kuid suurt tõusu ka ei tule.
Ma ka arvamusel, et see USA kinnisvarahindade liikumine oluline nii USA kui ka globaalse majanduse suhtes, seega kindlasti oluline teema.
Panin ka selle kohta küsitluse püsti.
Siin on juuli statistika Kalifornia kohta:
http://mrmortgage.ml-implode.com/2008/08/21/july-home-sale-surge-but-housing-market-continues-to-worsen/
* 39,507 Total Sales;up 12.2% over June’s 35,202 but still the slowest July for organic sales since DataQuick began reporting in 1988.
* 44.8% of Total Sales (17,699) were Foreclosure Resales; up 16.65% from last month and 1100% from two years ago.
* 21,808 ‘Organic Sales’ (Total Sales less Foreclosure Resales). This is up 1376 homes fromJuly.
* $318k median price; down 3% in a single month and a whopping 34.3% from last summer. As expected long ago, prices are gravitatingtowards the most readily available financing: Agency <=$417 conforming.
* 40,219 new Notice-of-Defaults,which will result in 33,500 new foreclosures 4-5 months from now.
* 169,500k new Notice-of-Defaults in past 4-months= 135,600k new REO from 3-7 months out as they move through the system
* 28,795 homes went back to the bank as REO (shadow inventory) totalling $12.55 Billion…an all-time record.
* Only 10,712 units left inventory (Total Sales less New Bank REO)
* Total MLS-Listed Inventory grew to around 320k units from approximately 275k at the beginning of the Spring/Summer selling season.
‘More Homes Sold’ is once again the headline, but in reality thepurchase and overall housing market worsened again in July and the numbers were far from jovial. The real news is once again that:
* inventory is not being absorbed due to foreclosures surging in July with only 10,712 homes leaving the inventory pool. This is less than last month and represents nearly 43 months supply.
* Ma and Pa Homeowner (organic sale) are being squeezed out and can’t compete with bank REO sales or refinance.
* organic sales (total sales less foreclosure-related sales) were at theslowest pace for any July on record.
* values continue to tumble pushing all homeowner’s net-worth lower and many into an even deeper negative-equity position and a an exponentially greater chance of loan default.
* foreclosure related sales reached a record 44.8% of total sales.
Despite what themajor media headlines say, the housing market is worsening. The facts are right here. This report makes it more evident than ever that ‘the foreclosure market is now the Real Estate market and the banks are the market makers.’
Please show me a month where sales are up, foreclosures are flat or down and prices are flat or up. That would represent an improvement. Sales going up while foreclosures surge and prices crash scream loudly about where we are headed.
For example, if you back out foreclosure-related sales, which were 44.8% of total sales, the picture is especially bleak due to banks taking back 6990 more homes than sold ‘organically’. An organic sale is a transaction between two private parties and not from the foreclosure stock.
I think ’organic sales’ are especially significant becuase they (resales) have always made up most of the market. New home sales and foreclosure resales have always placed a distant second and third.
In addition, organic sales languishing is a leading indicator of mortgage loan defaults across all paper types continuing to increase in the future, far in advance of actual events or published data. If individuals can’t sell their homes or refinance and are stuck, perhaps with an exotic/unaffordable mortgage or a negative equity position, they are at an exponentially greater risk of loan default. This of course will add further pressure to the housing market.
Last September at the end of the summer selling season, CA values began their plummet. If sales do not surge this month through the end of theyear, which is historically a slow season, foreclosure starts already in thepipeline will overrun sales and inventories will continue to grow further depressing the market.
In July, only 10,712 homes were taken out of inventory. Year-to-date only 52,147, or 7450 homes per month, have been taken out. The numbers are not good. Similar stats can be found in other foreclosure-heavy states.
One would hope that with the number of REO sales increasing, prices continuing to drop and being in a peak sales month that sales would have been much stronger in July. While total sales were up the market worsened from last month and organicsales fell, which makes for the slowest July since DataQuick began tracking in 1988.
With bank’shadow inventory’ hovering at record levels, sales need to double from here in order to chew through theinventory already in the‘MLS Listed’ channel and bring the “month’s supply” figures down to the10-11 months that is thought to be accurate for CA. This will be impossible. Remember, this is the first Spring/Summer selling season in five years without a full menu of “exotic/affordable” loan programs to drive affordability and interest only, Pay Option ARMs, stated income and 100%second mortgages are not coming back anytime soon.
FORECLOSURE-RELATED / BANK REO SALES
Bank REO sales are counted in the monthly Existing Home Sales official report making things appear better than they are. When you compare year-over-year sales, last year’s foreclosure resales were only about 7% of total and the year before that it was less than 5%. It is an apples-to-oranges comparison.
This shadow inventory is being sold at massive discounts to the note amount and recentcomparable sales in any given neighborhood. Foreclosure resales pose theprimary threat to home prices across the nation, followed closely by the lack of affordable loan programs. All over the country, neighborhoods are being marked-to-market overnight due to shadow inventory being dumped that was never shown as part of thelisted housing stock in the first place.
You may think that as prices fall, more homes will sell and that will solve the inventory problem. That is not totally correct. As prices fall, more homes sell but more homeowners are thrown into a negative equity position exponentially increasing their chance of loan default. This leads to more defaults and even more Bank REO. It is a vicious cycle; a feedback loop fromwhich there is no Negative-equity is now the leading cause of loan default.
Sellele börsipäeva teemale sobiks taha kirjutada "- kinnisvara eri".
http://mrmortgage.ml-implode.com/2008/08/21/july-home-sale-surge-but-housing-market-continues-to-worsen/
* 39,507 Total Sales;up 12.2% over June’s 35,202 but still the slowest July for organic sales since DataQuick began reporting in 1988.
* 44.8% of Total Sales (17,699) were Foreclosure Resales; up 16.65% from last month and 1100% from two years ago.
* 21,808 ‘Organic Sales’ (Total Sales less Foreclosure Resales). This is up 1376 homes fromJuly.
* $318k median price; down 3% in a single month and a whopping 34.3% from last summer. As expected long ago, prices are gravitatingtowards the most readily available financing: Agency <=$417 conforming.
* 40,219 new Notice-of-Defaults,which will result in 33,500 new foreclosures 4-5 months from now.
* 169,500k new Notice-of-Defaults in past 4-months= 135,600k new REO from 3-7 months out as they move through the system
* 28,795 homes went back to the bank as REO (shadow inventory) totalling $12.55 Billion…an all-time record.
* Only 10,712 units left inventory (Total Sales less New Bank REO)
* Total MLS-Listed Inventory grew to around 320k units from approximately 275k at the beginning of the Spring/Summer selling season.
‘More Homes Sold’ is once again the headline, but in reality thepurchase and overall housing market worsened again in July and the numbers were far from jovial. The real news is once again that:
* inventory is not being absorbed due to foreclosures surging in July with only 10,712 homes leaving the inventory pool. This is less than last month and represents nearly 43 months supply.
* Ma and Pa Homeowner (organic sale) are being squeezed out and can’t compete with bank REO sales or refinance.
* organic sales (total sales less foreclosure-related sales) were at theslowest pace for any July on record.
* values continue to tumble pushing all homeowner’s net-worth lower and many into an even deeper negative-equity position and a an exponentially greater chance of loan default.
* foreclosure related sales reached a record 44.8% of total sales.
Despite what themajor media headlines say, the housing market is worsening. The facts are right here. This report makes it more evident than ever that ‘the foreclosure market is now the Real Estate market and the banks are the market makers.’
Please show me a month where sales are up, foreclosures are flat or down and prices are flat or up. That would represent an improvement. Sales going up while foreclosures surge and prices crash scream loudly about where we are headed.
For example, if you back out foreclosure-related sales, which were 44.8% of total sales, the picture is especially bleak due to banks taking back 6990 more homes than sold ‘organically’. An organic sale is a transaction between two private parties and not from the foreclosure stock.
I think ’organic sales’ are especially significant becuase they (resales) have always made up most of the market. New home sales and foreclosure resales have always placed a distant second and third.
In addition, organic sales languishing is a leading indicator of mortgage loan defaults across all paper types continuing to increase in the future, far in advance of actual events or published data. If individuals can’t sell their homes or refinance and are stuck, perhaps with an exotic/unaffordable mortgage or a negative equity position, they are at an exponentially greater risk of loan default. This of course will add further pressure to the housing market.
Last September at the end of the summer selling season, CA values began their plummet. If sales do not surge this month through the end of theyear, which is historically a slow season, foreclosure starts already in thepipeline will overrun sales and inventories will continue to grow further depressing the market.
In July, only 10,712 homes were taken out of inventory. Year-to-date only 52,147, or 7450 homes per month, have been taken out. The numbers are not good. Similar stats can be found in other foreclosure-heavy states.
One would hope that with the number of REO sales increasing, prices continuing to drop and being in a peak sales month that sales would have been much stronger in July. While total sales were up the market worsened from last month and organicsales fell, which makes for the slowest July since DataQuick began tracking in 1988.
With bank’shadow inventory’ hovering at record levels, sales need to double from here in order to chew through theinventory already in the‘MLS Listed’ channel and bring the “month’s supply” figures down to the10-11 months that is thought to be accurate for CA. This will be impossible. Remember, this is the first Spring/Summer selling season in five years without a full menu of “exotic/affordable” loan programs to drive affordability and interest only, Pay Option ARMs, stated income and 100%second mortgages are not coming back anytime soon.
FORECLOSURE-RELATED / BANK REO SALES
Bank REO sales are counted in the monthly Existing Home Sales official report making things appear better than they are. When you compare year-over-year sales, last year’s foreclosure resales were only about 7% of total and the year before that it was less than 5%. It is an apples-to-oranges comparison.
This shadow inventory is being sold at massive discounts to the note amount and recentcomparable sales in any given neighborhood. Foreclosure resales pose theprimary threat to home prices across the nation, followed closely by the lack of affordable loan programs. All over the country, neighborhoods are being marked-to-market overnight due to shadow inventory being dumped that was never shown as part of thelisted housing stock in the first place.
You may think that as prices fall, more homes will sell and that will solve the inventory problem. That is not totally correct. As prices fall, more homes sell but more homeowners are thrown into a negative equity position exponentially increasing their chance of loan default. This leads to more defaults and even more Bank REO. It is a vicious cycle; a feedback loop fromwhich there is no Negative-equity is now the leading cause of loan default.
Sellele börsipäeva teemale sobiks taha kirjutada "- kinnisvara eri".
Mõni mõte veel.
Foreclosure'ite mahu vähenemist päris oletuseks ei pea, sellele aitab osade laenumaksete resettimise vältimiseks eraldatud $300B. Lisaks peaks olema teada (mul hetkel täpne tõestus puudub), et suurel osal teaser rate laenudel oli esimeseks ülimadala tagasimaksega perioodiks kaks aastat. Kuna peale 2006. aasta kolmandat kvartalit anti taolisi laene välja juba oluliselt vähem, peaks selle kvartali järel vähenema ka hapuks minevate laenude arv (sõltuvus ei ole üks-ühele, kuna viimane sõltub ka veel hinnalangusest).
V-kujulist põhja ei oota samuti, kuid meie meelest piisab ka stabiliseerumisest ja kergest tõusust. Aga kui sa usud järgmise aasta teisel poolaastal saabuvasse põhja, siis millal oleks õige aeg aktsiaid osta?
Foreclosure'ite mahu vähenemist päris oletuseks ei pea, sellele aitab osade laenumaksete resettimise vältimiseks eraldatud $300B. Lisaks peaks olema teada (mul hetkel täpne tõestus puudub), et suurel osal teaser rate laenudel oli esimeseks ülimadala tagasimaksega perioodiks kaks aastat. Kuna peale 2006. aasta kolmandat kvartalit anti taolisi laene välja juba oluliselt vähem, peaks selle kvartali järel vähenema ka hapuks minevate laenude arv (sõltuvus ei ole üks-ühele, kuna viimane sõltub ka veel hinnalangusest).
V-kujulist põhja ei oota samuti, kuid meie meelest piisab ka stabiliseerumisest ja kergest tõusust. Aga kui sa usud järgmise aasta teisel poolaastal saabuvasse põhja, siis millal oleks õige aeg aktsiaid osta?
Mis nüüd uutesse foreclosure'itesse puutub, siis need mahud on juba aprillist alates kokku kuivanud:
martk, selles postis pole midagi uut. Veelkord: kinnisvaraturg ise (ei räägi hindade muutumisest, vaid varudest) võib veel paar kuud hullemaks minna (aga võib ka mitte, päris kuupäeva ei soovi ennustada), aga kuna usume peagi algavasse paranemisse, soosib see aktsiate ostmist juba täna.