Börsipäev 26. juuli

Nafta hind jõudnud $77-ni. Kahtlemata muret tekitav fakt turule.

Eelmise aasta tipp, samuti juulikuus, oli $78.40.

Huvitav on vaadata tänaseid majadeehitajate tulemusi. D.R. Hortoni (DHI) juht Donald R. Horton kommenteerib keerulist kinnisvaraturu olukorda ning lisaks kõrget varude taset. Kõrged intressimäärad ja kitsenevad krediidistandardid hüpoteeklaenuäris mõjutavad negatiivselt tarbijate investeerimisvõimalusi. Lisaks on huvitav vaadata kui palju mõjutab kasumit varade hindade korrigeerimisest tulenev kahjum - kuigi ettevõte ütleb, et ilma nendeta oleks suudetud kasumit näidata, mõjutavad need kindlasti raamatupidamisväärtust (mille baasil paljud analüütikud majadeehitajate valuatsiooni põhjendavad).

Donald R. Horton, Chairman of the Board, said, "Market conditions in the homebuilding industry continue to be challenging as inventory levels of both new and existing homes remain at historically high levels, both as an absolute number and in terms of months' supply. Increased use of sales incentives continues to put pressure on profit margins. In addition, home price appreciation over the past few years, higher interest rates and tightened credit standards in the mortgage industry are all negatively impacting affordability. Even in the midst of this volatile housing market, we produced an operating profit before impairments this quarter and generated positive cash flow from operations for the fourth consecutive quarter.

DHI prelim ($2.62), includes charges, does not compare to the ($0.76) Reuters consensus; revs $2.55 bln vs $2.79 bln Reuters consensus

BZH prelim ($3.20), includes charges, does not compare to the ($0.46) Reuters consensus; revs $761.00 mln vs $832.83 mln Reuters consensus

Soovitan vaadata järgmist videot, kus Douglas Kass on kaitsmas oma karust positsiooni ning põhjendamas oma seisukohti. Video ise siin.

"Only when the tide goes out do you discover who's been swimming naked."

--Warren Buffett

Doug Kass
S&P ja Nasdaq'i futuurid näitavad päris korralikku miinust juba... Avanemine kindlalt punasest.
3M, Ford ja Apple on tugevate tulemustega all, saab näha kes täna peale jääb. Tõenäoliselt eilsega sarnaselt heitlik päev tulemas.
Üsnagi, XOM näiteks jäi tugevalt alla.
Mart
Alexander = Alex
Christopher = Chris
Robert = Bobby
http://www.seabreezepartners.net/team.asp

Kestvuskaupade tellimusnumbrid on nõrgad:

ECONX Initial Claims 301K vs 310K consensus
ECONX Durable Goods Orders +1.4% vs +2.0% consensus
ECONX Durable Goods Orders ex-trans -0.5% vs +0.6% consensus; prior -1.0% revised from -0.4
Ignore Chatter: Price Action Is What Counts
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
7/26/2007 7:56 AM EDT


Because things are the way they are, things will not stay the way they are.
-- Bertolt Brecht

Ever since second-quarter earnings reports have started to roll out the market has struggled. Overall reports have not been bad at all, with the consensus earnings numbers being exceeded by a good margin overall. However, we have had a distinct "sell the news" reaction this quarter, which is in stark contrast to what we saw during first-quarter earnings season.

There have been some stocks that have reacted well to earnings, such as IBM (IBM) , Amazon.com (AMZN) and Apple (AAPL) in the early going, but buyers have definitely been hesitant to jump in, and even the dip-buying yesterday lacked the joie de vivre that has marked this rally from the start.

Under the surface, the action has been far worse than the major indices indicate. Many small-caps have been blasted over the last few days as buyers stand aside and are uninterested in trying to catch the bottom in some dramatic pullbacks.

We have a definite change in market character at the moment, and a few good reports from cult favorites such as AMZN and AAPL are not likely to help the overall mood that much.

So what do we do? The very first thing we need to do is simply acknowledge this fact. The market is acting differently, but there are still hordes of folks who are going to tell us that there isn't anything to worry about, that this is just a minor, temporary glitch, and that we should continue to act in the same manner that worked so well in recent months.

The bulls want us to ignore the poor action that is in front of us and they have all sorts of good reasons why we should do so. They have been right for a long time, so it's easy to give them the benefit of the doubt, but their arguments in the face of poor action is simply the flip side of what the bears would have us do when the market was acting so well. The bears kept telling us to ignore the action that was in front of us and to embrace their negative arguments. They wanted us to be negative when the price action was good and now the bulls will want us to be positive when the price action is poor.

As I have written many times the secret to success in the market is to trade what is in front of you and to ignore the pundits who try to predict the future. There are always compelling and logical arguments for any market scenario you might consider, but price action is the only thing that counts.

Respect what is going on, make sure your precious capital stays safe, and wait for the market to give you an indication that it is safe to do some buying once again. The most important thing you can do right now is maintain a high level of skepticism as you consider the bullish arguments about how nothing has changed.

Something has changed this week, and it is the price action. That is all you need to know.

Last night, following the AAPL report, futures were trading up strongly. This morning, we are down sharply as Europe gives earnings reports over there a negative reception. Once again overseas action seems to be driving the action in the U.S. rather than vice versa.

We have a very sour start to the day shaping up. Frankly, I'm surprised by the extent of the pressure. I'm not seeing any really clear reason for it, but sentiment is certainly negative.
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Ülespoole avanevad:

Gapping up on strong earnings/guidance: BIDU +18.0%, VDSI +17.5%, FFHL +13.3%, AFOP +11.4%, AGP +9.7%, OMTR +7.8%, CMI +8.4%, AAPL +6.7%, MLNX +5.5%, OI +5.4%, WFR +4.8%, FORM +4.6%, BG +4.6%, SYMC +4.4%, POT +3.0%, CELG +2.6%, F +2.1%, QCOM +1.4%, ICE +0.9%... Other news: KFT +0.9% (WSJ reports that Warren Buffett has acquired a small stake in KFT).
Viimastel päevadel on erinevad analüüsimajad Gamestopile (GME) taas positiivseid kommentaare andnud. Täna tõstab UBS GME hinnasihi 10 dollari jagu kõrgemale 52 dollarile.

26.07 UBS sees GME as the best stock to play in the video game industry; tgt raises to $52 (42.01 )
24.07 Gamestop tgt raised to $48 at Lazard; Q2 appears to be tracking well
24.07 Gamestop: Strong trends continue - Credit Suisse. Firm would expect shares of GME to react favorably to these data points, yet where the stock goes from here largely depends on the co's ability to beat earnings expectations, as the stock's current valuation leaves less upside on current expectations.
Kommenteerisime Pro all lähemalt ka SCSS situatsiooni.
Meenutan, et homme on päätnitsapäe ja see on VÄGA SUUR PÜHA, mis omakorda tähendab, et juba tänase päeva teisest poolest, aga ilmtingimata kella kuuest õhtul kohaliku aja järgi on põliste traditsioonide kohaselt igasugune töötegemine keelatud. Kel täna-homme treidimine vussi läheb, teadku, et põhjus on just selles.
Maagaasi varud suurenesid 71 bcf-i vastates igati ootustele. Võrreldes eelmise nädalaga paisusid varud seega 11 bcf-i võrra. Kuid keerulised on just järgmised nädalad - nimelt on eelmisest aastast, mil oli väga kuum suveperiood, ees numbrid -7 bcfi, +19 bcfi, -12 bcfi ja +37 bcfi, mis tähendab, et varud, mis on täna samal tasemel, on järgnevail nädalail aastases võrdluses tõenäoliselt kiiresti kasvamas.
LHV Pro ideest Six Flags (SIX) rääkides, võin öelda, et olen tulemuste eelselt ka ise aktsias trading-positsiooni võtnud. Riskantne tegu, kuid lihtsalt ei kujuta ette, et tulemused/prognoosid niivõrd jubedad oleksid, et aktsia pärast hiljutist langemismaratoni kukkumist jätkaks ning et lühikesed oma positsioone ei kataks... Kaua ootama ei pea, börsipäeva järgselt teatab ettevõte tulemused ning 23.30 Eesti aja järgi peetakse konverentsikõne.
Cramer doesn't like SIX anymore:
"They made a really stupid acquistion. GAsoline is way up.. stock's dead."

Cramer on funny. Aquisition oli finantsilises mõttes päris hea tehing. Gasoline ei ole ka põhjuseks, miks stock all on. Aga ootame tulemused ära ja siis anname juba põhjalikuma kommentaari. Cramer on olnud selle stocki puhul nagu tuulelipp - hiljuti mäletan teda haipimas firmat ja selle juhti kui ühte parimat.
minu arust oli see ost ka olemasoleva äri perspektiivi mõttes hea tehing
võimaldab SIX'i promoda hoopis uuel tasandil ning tuua käibeid perioodi, kus karusellid seisavad
mind huvitab nende shortijate mõttemaailm, kes 25% lukku ei raatsi panna
speedy, juhtkond on sellel firmal tasemel. Olles short, kardaks ma puhtalt seda, mida igal konverentsikõne oleme näinud - juhtkond maalib ülipositiivse pildi (ka põhjendatult) kogu tegevusest.