Kauplejad avavad täna oma süsteemid märkamaks, et Euroopa turud on all 2% ning USA futuurid indikeerivad ca 1% miinust. Dollar on euro vastu uue 8 kuu põhja teinud ning nafta kaupleb tippude lähedal.
Suuri uudiseid ei ole. Deutsche Bank tõstab American International Groupi (AIG) reitingu Osta peale. Mäletatavasti on tegemist ühe keskse tegelasega Eliot Spitzeri skandaalis.
Graafikud (briefing.com):
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=2y&s=SPY&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=dia
SPY ja DIA liiguvad ühes rütmis
SPY ja DIA liiguvad ühes rütmis
Millised on prognoosid "musta esmaspäeva" osas?
Mis kuradi must esmaspäev? miks keegi peaks midagi taolist üldse prognoosima?
Gapping Up
Steel stocks are strong on news that ISG +26% is being acquired at a healthy premium; up in sympathy: STLD +7%, NUE +6%... Other News: OXGN +12% (data demonstrates anti-tumor activity), MAGS +8.2% (announces US$4.5 mln in orders), DAL +6.8% (co and its pilots neared accord on $1 bln in concessions; Calyon upgrade), MTXX +6.4% (to report results tonight), EMITF +6.4% (investment receives FDA approval), MICC +5.4% (signs deal with Pakistan regulator to switch on its GSM network and to renew its license), SUPG +4.5% (acceptance of Dacogen MAA for review by EMEA), OSTK +2.5% (Legg Mason upgrade), GOOG +2.2% (says it's not starting a browser war).... Under $3: HOMS +13% (SEC urges broad liability in Homestore case - Reuters), VNWI +31% (raises rev guidance), IFUL +10% (mentioned in Barron's), STEM +6.7%, CYTR +6.1% (announces clinical data).
Gapping Down
ONXX -27% (announces Phase II data), OATS -16% (guides Q3 below consensus; Adams Harkness downgrade), ADSX -5.4% (negative Barron's article), IMOS -4.3% (guides for Q3 and Q4), ISON -3.2% (continued profit taking as stock down 30% in last 2 sessions after the stock soared 160% earlier in the week), RMBS -2.6%, VISG -2.5%, TTWO -2.3% (BofA downgrade), CATT -2.1% (JP Morgan downgrade)... Under $3: TRPH -44% (warns significantly below prior guidance).
Steel stocks are strong on news that ISG +26% is being acquired at a healthy premium; up in sympathy: STLD +7%, NUE +6%... Other News: OXGN +12% (data demonstrates anti-tumor activity), MAGS +8.2% (announces US$4.5 mln in orders), DAL +6.8% (co and its pilots neared accord on $1 bln in concessions; Calyon upgrade), MTXX +6.4% (to report results tonight), EMITF +6.4% (investment receives FDA approval), MICC +5.4% (signs deal with Pakistan regulator to switch on its GSM network and to renew its license), SUPG +4.5% (acceptance of Dacogen MAA for review by EMEA), OSTK +2.5% (Legg Mason upgrade), GOOG +2.2% (says it's not starting a browser war).... Under $3: HOMS +13% (SEC urges broad liability in Homestore case - Reuters), VNWI +31% (raises rev guidance), IFUL +10% (mentioned in Barron's), STEM +6.7%, CYTR +6.1% (announces clinical data).
Gapping Down
ONXX -27% (announces Phase II data), OATS -16% (guides Q3 below consensus; Adams Harkness downgrade), ADSX -5.4% (negative Barron's article), IMOS -4.3% (guides for Q3 and Q4), ISON -3.2% (continued profit taking as stock down 30% in last 2 sessions after the stock soared 160% earlier in the week), RMBS -2.6%, VISG -2.5%, TTWO -2.3% (BofA downgrade), CATT -2.1% (JP Morgan downgrade)... Under $3: TRPH -44% (warns significantly below prior guidance).
Rev Shark:
"The sure way to be cheated is to think one's self more cunning than others."
-- Francois de la Rochefoucauld
Twice last week the Nasdaq made dramatic intraday reversals. The aggressive bulls who pursued the first signs of strength were trapped and slapped as momentum quickly fizzled. What looked like a potential big-volume breakout in the Nasdaq 100 turned out to be Mr. Market's cunning way of dishing out some damage to a market that continues to be too hopeful and optimistic despite the many negatives that exist.
The negatives are no big secret. Foremost is stubbornly high crude oil prices, which hit yet another new high over the weekend. The second major negative is the generally lackluster earnings reports from big-cap technology stocks such as Microsoft (MST:Nasdaq) and Amazon (AMZN:Nasdaq). There are some exceptions such as Apple (AAPL:Nasdaq) and the new market darling, Google (GOOG:Nasdaq), but the biggest problem is that the market apparently was not ready to conclude that mediocre earnings reports are already fully discounted. There were some signs that that may be the case on the Intel (INTC:Nasdaq) report but it never really took hold.
Although there are two primary negatives facing the market, they aren't the only ones: the Eliot Spitzer investigations are a source of uncertainty in various sectors; the generally slow economic recovery; a weak dollar; and the election uncertainties. One of my major worries is that the election is so close that it turns into a battle of lawsuits with no clear winner for weeks. That uncertainty would definitely be a negative for an already skittish market.
Aside from the fundamental factors, the technical conditions are also quite troublesome. Both the DJIA and S&P 500 are deep into downtrends and have little support. The Nasdaq is in much better shape than the two senior indices but the inability to work through the 200-day simple moving average and the two nasty reversals last week have weakened it. If the Nasdaq can hold above the 1900 level for a few days it may be able to build up some strength once again, but it is in danger of breaking the uptrend from the August low and we need to watch closely to see if downside momentum picks up.
Last week I hypothesized a bit about a rotation out of some of the defensive groups such as steels, cyclicals, farm equipment and the like and into technology stocks. I think that is still possible into the end of the year but only if new leaders such as Google take the place of the Microsofts and Amazons. There are some good earnings reports in the secondary stocks but they need to overcome the unimpressive big caps.
We have a negative start to the day, with oil prices sticking near highs and poor action in overseas markets. The selling on Friday was quite intense and a gap down open today will probably set us up for at least a brief bounce. Proceed with caution: This is a tough market right now.
"Straddle enne tulemusi" optsioonistrateegia kasutajatele - täna õhtul kui tulemused tulevad, siis kirjutan reaktsioonidest ka LHV chati vahendusel reaal-ajas.
Logisin ka praegu chatti sisse, üritan ka enne tulemusi suletava osa kohta kommentaare anda. Kel huvi, tulge vaatama.
Veelkord chati kasutamisest.
Kas seal eeldatakse sama username kasutamist mis muidu LHVsse sisse logimisel?
Sellisel juhul ei saa ma endiselt oma tavapärase useri ja pw-ga sisse.
AGA kui panin suva useri ja pw, siis tuli hoopis uus vastus:
* Kohalik aeg: 17:25:34 25/10/2004 (GMT +03:00). Kokku kasutajaid 10 (max 300).
[LHV CHAT] Kanali minimaalne juurdepääsu tase on 1sul on ainult 0
üldseeisaaaru :S
Kas seal eeldatakse sama username kasutamist mis muidu LHVsse sisse logimisel?
Sellisel juhul ei saa ma endiselt oma tavapärase useri ja pw-ga sisse.
AGA kui panin suva useri ja pw, siis tuli hoopis uus vastus:
* Kohalik aeg: 17:25:34 25/10/2004 (GMT +03:00). Kokku kasutajaid 10 (max 300).
[LHV CHAT] Kanali minimaalne juurdepääsu tase on 1sul on ainult 0
üldseeisaaaru :S
proovi PÕRAND kanalisse, mitte LAGI
proovitud. ei aita. hmm, ma nagu pole muidu arvutiga kõige saamatum....
* Kohalik aeg: 17:35:28 25/10/2004 (GMT +03:00). Kokku kasutajaid 15 (max 300).
[LHV CHAT] Sisenemine ebaõnnestus, vale parool kasutajele Fantoom!
või
* Kohalik aeg: 17:25:34 25/10/2004 (GMT +03:00). Kokku kasutajaid 10 (max 300).
[LHV CHAT] Kanali minimaalne juurdepääsu tase on 1sul on ainult 0
muud ma chatist teada ei saa...
* Kohalik aeg: 17:35:28 25/10/2004 (GMT +03:00). Kokku kasutajaid 15 (max 300).
[LHV CHAT] Sisenemine ebaõnnestus, vale parool kasutajele Fantoom!
või
* Kohalik aeg: 17:25:34 25/10/2004 (GMT +03:00). Kokku kasutajaid 10 (max 300).
[LHV CHAT] Kanali minimaalne juurdepääsu tase on 1sul on ainult 0
muud ma chatist teada ei saa...
andsin probleemi edasi IT poolele...
...juba helistati. superteenus. kui veel tööle ka saaks :)
Nüüd peaks Fantoomi probleem lahendatud olema. Vabandused ebameeldivuste pärast!
Palun ka abi - chat link avab tühja akna, rist üleval vasakul nurgas, dialoogi ei tule kuskilt :(
Tänud, SideKick ja jyri!
jinx6: viga on sinu arvuti settingutest, sa peaksid lubama Java: Tools->Internet Options
Kontrollisin, Java logging ja Java konsool on lubatud. Trader töötab normaalselt, Javast on viimane versioon. Chatti ei saa.
OKserver 4.0.0 PRO version, registered to LHVDirect
Copyright (C) by Andri Kruus 1997-2001.
[LHV CHAT] Ühendus serveriga 213.180.8.208:9999 (ühendus 127 alates
17:02:43 25/10/2004)
* Kohalik aeg: 18:48:44 25/10/2004 (GMT +03:00). Kokku kasutajaid 17 (max 300).
[LHV CHAT] Sisenemine ebaõnnestus, vale parool kasutajele celera!
Ma olen vist 2 kuud foorumites üritanud teada anda ja saatnud klienditoele maili, et ei saa chatti.
Aga siiamaani pole midagi muutunud.
Copyright (C) by Andri Kruus 1997-2001.
[LHV CHAT] Ühendus serveriga 213.180.8.208:9999 (ühendus 127 alates
17:02:43 25/10/2004)
* Kohalik aeg: 18:48:44 25/10/2004 (GMT +03:00). Kokku kasutajaid 17 (max 300).
[LHV CHAT] Sisenemine ebaõnnestus, vale parool kasutajele celera!
Ma olen vist 2 kuud foorumites üritanud teada anda ja saatnud klienditoele maili, et ei saa chatti.
Aga siiamaani pole midagi muutunud.
Celera, uurime asja.
Mmm mul sama lugu