Börsipäev 25. juuli

“It’s Deja Vu All Over Again” — Buy on Weakness

Citigroup on väljas huvitava kommentaariga NutriSystem Inc (NTRI) teemal peale seda kui firma teatas oma teise kvartali tulemused ning aktsia kaotas järelturul üle 14% oma väärtusest.

NTRI teatas 2Q EPSi $0.96, ületades nii juhtkonna kui ka citi prognoose. Konverentsikõnel mainis juhtkond juuni viimastel ja juuli esimestel nädalatel nõrkust OTC ravimi Alli turuletoomise tõttu. Seetõttu tõmmati alla 3Q prognoose – juhtkond näeb EPSi vahemikus $0.77-0.82 vs. $0.89 konsensus.

Citi usub, et probleemid on ühekordsed ning lühiajalised (Alli potentsiaalsete kõrvalnähtude tõttu). NTRI trendid on paranenud viimase nädala jooksul ning Citi arvates viljeleb juhtkond taas oma ajalooliselt konservatiivset lähenemist, olles samal ajal tugevaid tulemusi näidanud.

Citi arvates on tegemist Déjà Vu efektiga ning võimalik on osta aktsiaid üliodava hinnaga. Järelturul langes aktsia $9 ning citi soovitab aktsiaid osta pikaajalise ärimudeli, juhtkonna konservatiivsuse ja atraktiivse valuatsiooni tõttu. Hinnasiht $90. Nagu ka juhtkond, tõstab citi pikemaid prognoose. Ettevõte kergitas 2007. aasta prognoose, nähes nüüd EPSi $3.46-3.52 vs. $3.43 konsensus. Käviet nähakse $810-820 miljonit vs $802.95 konsensus.

Konverentsikõnel oli huvitav kuulata, kuidas juhtkond minetas probleemid konkurentsi osas, mis on juba pikka aega õhus olnud:

Q - Michael Lasser: Okay. And aside from the launch of Allies, is there -- do you think that, the recentweakness is due to increasing competition. Are you hearing that you're losing customers to other commercial weightloss companies or is?

A - Michael Hagan: No. We don't. We don't, Michael.

Huvitav on märkida et firma lisas ca 246K uut klienti, mis on 46% tõusu võrreldes aastataguse teise kvartaliga. CIBC ootas näiteks 235K uue kliendi lisamist. Vaadates ettevõtte valuatsiooni, kaupleb see ca 15-16x FY07 EPSil ning kasvu näidatakse päris kõvasti. Citi on firma osas muidugi igipõline optimist olnud (ning neil on viimase poole aasta jooksul ka õigus olnud).

Tõstsin ajutiselt antud nädala tulemuste tabeli päevateemade alla, kust on sellele lihtne esilehelt ligi pääseda ilma suuremate sekeldustega. Nädala lõpus tõstan tagasi vana koha peale - põhiteemade alla - kus asub ka meie esimese nädala tulemuste tabel.

Taas ollakse väljas Wachoviat (WB) kaitsmas. Eile Citi positiivne kommentaar läks lühiajaliselt vett vedama tänu CFC avameelsele konverentsikõnele.

Friedman Billings adds WB to their Top Picks list, based on its strong earnings growth outlook and attractive valuation, particularly following recent weakness. The firm expects superior credit results and a meaningful increase in its dividend next month. They consider the shares inexpensive and reit their Outperform and $60 tgt.
Olemasolevate majade müügistatistika avaldatakse täna kell 17.00 Eesti aja järgi - konsensusootus on 5.9 miljonit. Kell 14.00 USA idaranniku aja järgi avaldatakse Föderaalreservi nn. Beeži raamatu sisu.

Eilne langus aktsiaturul kvalifitseerub viimase 4 kuu suurimaks. Täna on turg aga Amazoni (AMZN) ja Boeingu(BA) tugevate tulemuste peale päeva plusspoolel alustamas.
Shark toob täna välja, et eilne suur langus tõstatab investoritele ette küsimuse, kas tegu ei ole mitte ostukohaga - seni on ju kõik sellised kukkumised kiiresti üles tagasi ostetud. Samas, täna võib olukord pisut teistsugune olla - nimelt olid eilse liikumise taga reaalsed negatiivsed uudised CFC-lt laenuturu kohta ning ka ettevõtete tulemused ei ole suutnud turge toetada.

So the Bottom Fell Out -- Now What?
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
7/25/2007 8:05 AM EDT


The price one pays for pursuing any profession or calling is an intimate knowledge of its ugly side.
-- James Baldwin

Although they don't happen that often, big, broad, ugly market days like yesterday are frequent enough that we shouldn't be terribly surprised by them. It is the nature of the market beast that it is going to turn on us now and then and make sure we don't forget who really is in charge. We are just along for the ride, and if we don't sufficiently respect the random nature of the beast, he is going to make sure we pay for our lack of respect.

There is no sugarcoating how bad the action was yesterday was. Volume was very heavy, breadth very poor and the point loss was big. Few stocks escaped the carnage. If you were holding any longs at all, the great likelihood is that you took some hits.

Rather than dwell on how poor the action was, we need to focus on the big question: where we go from here? Was this just a very big and ugly hiccup, or is this the beginning of the end? Are all those things the bears have been worried about finally going to start to matter? Is the consumer going to die and the stock market sputter as subprime woes and real estate problems continue to mount?

As we consider that proposition, the first thing we need to contemplate is the big divergence in behavior between the indices. We have a rather peculiar situation where there is much better action in the DJIA and the Nasdaq than there is in the S&P 500 and small-cap indices. While the small-caps are back to levels we saw in April, the Nasdaq isn't even back to where it was two weeks ago. There are very notable technical differences in the patterns here, which would suggest that small-caps are in far worse shape than the big-cap technology stocks that dominate the Nasdaq 100 index.

This morning with the strong report from Amazon.com (AMZN) and a huge move up, this divergence between big-cap tech and small-cap seems to be even more evident. Can that continue to play out, or will market problems broaden out and eventually infect the small group of stocks that have enjoyed great relative strength?

In an ideal market, buying would filter down to small-caps as the big-cap leaders become relatively expensive. In theory, the rational thing to do is to look for a cheaper, small-cap alternative to a stock like AMZN that doesn't trade at a P/E of 100. But the market is peculiar in that way.

Investors often find it more comfortable to continue to buy the stocks that are the most expensive and up the most. They will ignore stocks with good values while they continue to pile into the high-visibility names that everyone is very aware of. We have seen it for awhile now with Apple (AAPL) , Research in Motion (RIMM) , Baidu.com (BIDU) , MasterCard (MA) and so on. The technical conditions of the Nasdaq 100 and the small-cap indices suggest that it may continue that way.

So now what? We have a good bounce setting up this morning as earnings reports are coming in better than expected. Given the intensity of the selling yesterday, a reflexive bounce should be expected, and a report like AMZN certainly helps the mood.

The big question isn't whether we bounce a bit but whether we go straight back up and shrug off yesterday as an aberration. We have done just that quite often during this rally, and many folks will be anticipating that again, but this time the mood is a bit different. The selling was not only prompted by increased concern about lending but by the fact that high expectations for earnings were not being met. This is the first time in a while that market players are actually focusing on the possibility that a stock like Texas Instruments (TXN) or Intel (INTC) may have gotten a bit ahead of itself.

My game plan at this point is to refine my list of favorite stocks and to watch for entry points to develop. A day like yesterday leaves many of them in technical limbo, and they need some time to find basis and to set up attractive entry points. If I know what stocks I like and watch them, I should be able to jump in when the odds become more favorable.

We have a very strong bounce this morning, which makes any new buying at this point extremely difficult. Most overseas markets were down overnight but did not suffer nearly as badly as we did yesterday. Could it be that the U.S. market is simply not as important to the global economy as it once was?
-----------------------------
Ülespoole avanevad:

Gapping up on strong earnings/guidance: AMZN +23.2%, ALXN +11.7%, ALGN +11.2%, CKSW +10.2%, BOBJ +8.7%, AEHR +8.4%, ILMN +8.2%, ANAD +7.5%, RFMD +6.5%, BA +3.1%... M&A: PRAI +9.4% (to be acquired by Genstar Capital for $30.50/share in cash), DADE -- stock is halted -- (to be acquired by Siemens for $77/share in cash, representing a 37% premium to last night's closing price)... Other news: EGLE +15.4% (agrees to acquire twenty-six Supramax vessels for $1.1 bln with approximately $1 bln of contracted revs), GGBM +9.6% (continued momentum).

Allapoole avanevad:

Gapping down on weak earnings/guidance: HOKU -15.8%, NTRI -12.8%, JOYG -9.7%, GLW -4.5%, PNRA -3.8%, STM -3.7%... Other news: GPCB -29.8% & SPPI -16.7% (FDA Oncologic Drugs Advisory Committee recommends that FDA wait for overall survival results from Satraplatin Phase 3 Trial), TGEN -23.9% (Inflammatory Arthritis Phase I/II Trial placed on clinical hold), SI -5.0% (to buy DADE for $77/share in cash).

Euroopa avanes eilse USA verelaskmise järel päris korralikus miinuses, kuid on päeva edenedes oma miinuseid järjest kustutanud.

Saksamaa DAX -0.33%

Prantsusmaa CAC -0.29%

Inglismaa FTSE -0.64%

Hispaania IBEX +0.62%

Venemaa RTS -0.66%

Poola WIG -0.87%

Aasia tänane börsipäev oli kirju, suurimaks tõusjaks Hiina turg.

Jaapani Nikkei 225 -0.80%

Hong Kongi Hang Seng -0.47%

Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) +2.69%

Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) +3.54%

Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq +0.75%

Thai Set +0.49%

India Sensex -0.61%

Lisaks on kuulda ka jutte, et Austraalia on valmistumas järjekordseks intressimäära tõstmiseks - riik, kus intressimäärad küündivad niigi 8%ni. Üha kerkivad toiduainete, toorainete ja teiste sisendihindade tõusu tõttu on inflatsioon probleemiks mitmes maailma piirkonnas.

Müüginumbrid alla ootuste:

Existing Home Sales 5.75 mln vs 5.90 mln consensus; -3.8% m/m change
Mootorkütuse varud kasvasid 0.793 mln barrelit vs -0.125 mln ootus.
Distillaatide varud tõusid 1.428 mln barrelit vs 0.75 mln ootus.
Toornafta varud vähenesid -1.1 mln barrelit vs -1.375 mln ootus.
Sisendihinnatõusud probleemiks, samuti räägitakse kinnisvaraturust, mis on ka Fedi sõnul mõnes piirkonnas nõrk. Selle teadmise saavutamiseks ei pea muidugi Beige Booki lugema, vaid piisab ka mõne ehitusettevõtte kommentaaride lugemisest.

14:03 Fed says manufacturing 'continued to expand', says employment increased in most regions
14:02 FED says CONSUMER SPENDING ROSE AT MODEST PACE, SOME BANKS SAW SALES MIXED OR BELOW EXPECTATIONS
14:01 FED- MANY DISTRICTS SAID OVERALL WAGE GAINS WERE MODERATE; WAGE PRESSURE HIGHER FOR SKILLED WORKERS
14:01 FED says RETAIL PRICES ROSE AT MODERATE RATE, BUSINESSES HAD MIXED SUCCESS IN PASSING ON HIGHER COSTS
14:01 Fed says employment increased in most regions
14:00 Fed says commercial construction and real estate generally more active than during previous period
14:00 FED says MOST DISTRICTS SAW DECLINES IN HOUSING CONSTRUCTION, REAL ESTATE ACTIVITY, SOME MARKETS "WEAK"
14:00 ECONX Beige Book: Overall consumer spending modest -Update-
14:00 Fed Beige book describes 'ongoing input cost pressures'
14:00 FED - SEVERAL DISTRICTS DESCRIBED GROWTH PACE AS "MODERATE" OR "MODEST"
14:00 Fed's Beige Book says economic activity continued to expand in June and early July
huvitav, et SIX nii konkreetselt alla tuleb viimasel nädalal
sitad ilmad?
Speedy, hea küsimus ja oleme olukorda päris pingsalt jälginud. Eks täpsema pildi saame juba tulemustest ja CC'st. Oma roll on siin lõbustuspargi külastamist ebasoosivatel ilmadel, kuid kahtlemata ka USA lõbustuspargitööstuses viimasel aastal keskmisest rohkem juhtunud õnnetuste arvul (kaasa arvatud Six Flagsis). Selline langus tulemuste eel lööb muidugi ootused tugevasti alla ning arvestades, et SIX'ist on üle 25% aktsiatest lühikeseks müüdud, lähevad minu mõtted paratamatult short covering võimalusele enne tulemusi.
Samas on häid uudiseid ka tulnud. Pargid on saanud viimase viie aasta parimad reitingud ja külastajate struktuur on muutunud planeeritule vastavaks. Homme tuleb SIXiga huvitav päev igatahes.
BIDU sees Q3 revs $64.6-66.5 mln vs $58.23 mln Reuters consensus. Aktsia esialgu +22%.
APPLE´lt tugevad tulemused .
EPS 0.90. iPhone müüdud 2 päevaga 270´000 tk´i.
Bloomberg.
Apple tulemused nõrgad. Downside guidance ja iPhone müügiprognoos paistab ka olevat kuidagi kehv...aastalõpumüügile panustatakse vist palju
Huvitav, milles need AAPL tugevad tulemused seisnevad, kui Nasdaqi futuurid tegid samal ajal kümnepunktise jõnksu alla?
Q4 osas anti ikka negatiivseid prognoose Apple'i poolt. EPSi oodatakse kõigest $0.65 vs oodatud $0.82 ning müügitulu $5.7 miljardit vs $6.03 miljardit. Samuti tõik, et Apple loodab septembri kvartali lõpuks müüa 1 miljon iPhone'i, on pettumuseks.
Positiivse külje pealt võib mainida marginaale - need tulid oodatust tunduvalt tugevamad. Mainisin need ära ka eelvaates ehk oodati salamisi siiski löömist nende osas.
BIDU hakanud vaikselt jahtuma