Mõned teemad tänaseks päevaks:
- Six Flags (PKS) tegi reedel päris tubli tõusu. Ühtegi uudist selle taga ei olnud. Firma tegeleb vaikselt oma võla refinantseerimisega, mis aitab langetada finantskulusid. Tegemist on LHV Pro valikuga.
Tehnilisest küljest on PKS murdnud $7 vastupanu, mis lubab tõusu jätkumist. Kes aktsiaga aktiivsemalt kaubelda tahavad, peaksid STOP-i panema just sinna $7 alla.
- Dept of Homeland Security teatas eile, et on tõstnud Terrorihoiatuse taseme Oranzi peale varasema Kollase asemel.
Põhjuseks kartus, et terroristid võivad plaanida rünnakuid, mis on mõnedel andmetel võivad olla suuremad kui 911. Ilmselt on see ka peamiseks põhjuseks, miks futuurid täna hommikul punast näitavad.
- JP Morgani analüütikud tõstavad PalmOne Inc (PLMO) aktsiate reitingu Neutraalse peale varasema Underweight (Alakaal) pealt. Aktsiad on kukkunud tänu Handspingi (HAND) ostmisele ning 17. dets avaldatud halbadele uudistele. Analüütikute arvates on praktiliselt kõik halvad uudised hinda sisse arvestatud.
- Wal-Mart (WMT) teatas, et selle kuu müüginumbrid tulevad prognooside alumisest servas. Sama uudis, mis eelmise nädala alguses.
- Pfizer (PFE) teatas, et ostab ära Esperioni (ESPR). Tehingu suuruseks 1.3 miljardit dollarit, mis tähendab, et aktsiate eest makstakse enam kui 50% suurust preemiat. See on juba teine suur tehing biotehnoloogia vallas selles kuus. Mõned nädalad tagasi ostis Eli Lilly (LLY) ära Applied Moleculari (AMEV). Tundub, et suured farmaatsiafirmad on agressiivselt otsimas väiksemaid bioteche, millega oma tooteportfelli turgutada. Ostukandidaatideks võivad Piper Jaffray analüütikute arvates ostutude lähiajal ka sellised tegijad nagu NPSP, ONXX, ILXO ning CTIC. Kõigil on vähemalt üks suur ravimikandidaat hilises katsefaasis.
- Ford (F) teatas, et tõstab oma 2003. aasta kasumiprognoosi aktsia kohta vahemiku $0.95-1.05 juurest $1.05-1.10 peale.
- Dollar liikus euro vastu jällegi uuele viimaste aastate madalamale tasemele. Hetkel USDEUR @ 0.8044.
- Sellelt nädalalt pole imesid loota, kuna täismahulisi kauplemispäevi on vaid kaks.
- RevShark:
The question on the minds of investors as we wind up the year is what bearded man will dominate the action, Bin Laden or Santa Claus?
The Homeland Security Department raised the terrorist threat level to orange for the fifth time since its inception in March 2002. The primary concern seems to be the security of flights into the U.S., especially of cargo, that originate overseas.
There was quite a bit of pressure on the market Friday from chatter that the alert level might be raised and it looks like much of the concern has been priced in already. We have a slightly positive indication in the very early going and overseas markets were holding well.
The terrorist threat level has been raised to orange previously on Sept. 10, 2002, Feb. 7, 2003, March 17, 2003 and May 20, 2003. The reaction to the increase was fairly tame in all instances. It has generally been anticipated by the market and cynical market participants tend to shrug it off the move as a political gesture more than a real change in circumstances.
The million-dollar question this week is whether the market will shake off terrorism jitters and embrace a Santa Claus rally to end the year. The recent sector rotation in the markets has set up some interesting technical patterns. The DJIA is looking quite extended after a huge move since Thanksgiving. The Nasdaq, on the other hand, is at 1950, the same level as way back on Oct. 16. The Nasdaq has bounced around quite a bit in the interim but overall it has done nothing but churn and base for quite a while.
That two-plus months of choppiness creates a fairly good base for a move higher should the bulls decide to rotate back into technology for an end-of-the-year run. One other promising sign for the Nasdaq is the Amex Biotechnology Index (BTK), which has been trading in an increasingly narrow range since June. A move through 485 or so would break the group out of the triangle and probably generate some upside momentum. The biotechs are always good indicators of what the hot-money boys are doing. When they feel comfortable speculating in the bios it often spreads to other groups fairly fast.
The one thing that we can say with certainty about this week is that trading is going to thin. We have no trading on Thursday and half-days on both Wednesday and Friday. In this sort of environment, big macro funds and/or buy/sell programs can muscle the market around quite easily. Consider loosening your stops a bit if your positions are moving around on light volume.
I was encouraged by the stabilization in technology, small-caps and momentum stocks at the end of last week. These groups lagged badly for about 10 days prior as investors moved into oil and gas, steel and industry stocks. If we are going to have a Santa rally I look for the traditional momentum favorites and small-caps to lead the way.
Keep on an eye on breadth and the semiconductor and biotechnology indices for signs that momentum may be building. There are a lot of traders who will be very quick to do some buying if they spot some strength in momentum stocks.
I'm a bit surprised we aren't seeing more weakness in the early indications because of the terrorist threat increase. Asian markets were solid overnight and European markets are close to flat. Spot gold is back up to the $410 level and we'll have to watch and see if the Philly gold and silver index (XAU) can find some support at its 50-day simple moving average. Oil is down a bit but the dollar continues to struggle.
It is going to be an interesting week. Will the holiday spirit prevail or will terrorism worries keep folks on the sidelines? Stay tuned. Our saga will unfold shortly.
Futuurid: Naz-0.35% SP-0.11%
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