Mõned teemad tänaseks päevaks:
- Wall Street Journal kirjutab täna hommikul, et Nasdaq on valmis NYSE-ga ühinema. Asjaga seotud inimeste sõnul on läbirääkimised väga varajases staadiumis. Nasdaqi huvi seisneb oma turuosa hoidmises, mida on viimastel aastatel kaotatud sellistele süsteemidele nagu Archipelago ning Instinet (INGP).
Saab näha, kuidas reageerivad sellele uudisele NYSE spetsialistifirmade aktsiad nagu LAB ja VDM.
- Six Flags (PKS) liikus ka eile õiges suunas. Üks võimalik aktsiaid liikuma panev tegur oli reedene optsioonide lõppemine. Ilmselt suruti put-optsioone teinud turuosalised nende positsioonidest välja, tekitades aktsiates ostusurvet. PKS on üpris õhuke aktsia, mis lubab selliseid võtteid kasutada.
Tehniliselt murti viimased 6 kuud püsinud $7 vastupanu, mis meelitab aktsiatesse ilmselt lähiajal veelgi tehniliselt kauplevaid turuosalisi. Järgmine veidi suurem vastupanu asub $7.50 juures.
- Research in Motion (RIMM) on täna hommikul 15% plussis. Firma avaldas eile õhtul tulemused, mis ületasid analüütikute ootusi. Täna on Bear Stearns ja JP Morgan reitinguid tõstmas.
- Häid uudiseid on teatada LHV Pro kiire idee Homestore (HOMS) hoidjatele. ThinkEquity alustas firma aktsiate katmist kõrgeima Overweight reitingu ning $6 hinnasihiga. Kuigi firma on kasumist paari kvartali kaugusel on analüütikute arvates just praegu kõige õigem aktsiaid osta. Eel turul kaubeldakse HOMS-ga $4.50-$4.60 juures, mis on ligemale 10% kõrgemale sulgemishinnast.
- Veidi halvemaid uudiseid on teatada KEMET (KEM)-i aktsiate omanikele (LHV Pro kiire idee). Nimelt alustas Smith Barney aktsiate katmist Müü reitinguga ning $11 hinnasihiga. Konkurents Aasiast tekitab analüütikutele muret. Kui KEM suudab selle uudise maha raputada on see märk ostuhuvist. Eelturul erilist müügihuvi täheldada ei ole.
- GDP 8.2% vs 8.2% consensus
- Personal Income 0.5% vs 0.4% consensus; Spending 0.4% vs 0.7% consensus
Turu reaktsioon väga leigelt negatiivne.
- RevShark:
Market participants were so cheerful yesterday they shrugged off an increase in the terrorism alert level as just a minor annoyance. Increased concern about terrorism presented an excellent excuse to lock in profits, especially in extended cyclical and industrial stocks but the happy mood helped the bulls endure.
Can we expect the jolly holiday spirit to keep this market moving? The DJIA and the S&P 500 are becoming quite extended and overbought. They have failed to take any sort of rest since breaking to new highs three weeks ago. Now are in an increasingly thin trading environment and it is quite easy for big funds or program traders to muscle the market around. We can easily continue to move higher.
The bottom line is that even though many of these industrial and cyclical stocks are extended, we can't have any great level of assurance that they won't continue to move up in an environment dominated by a cheerful holiday mood.
On the other hand the Nasdaq and the small-cap indices have not been nearly as jovial as their big brother indices. The tone, particularly in the small-caps, has improved over the past few days but there is not nearly the same vigor in this group as in the smoke stacks and cyclical stocks.
Will the Nasdaq and small-caps join the party and make new highs before the end of the year? For that to occur we will probably need a sector rotation back into biotechnology, semiconductors and technology stocks. At some point the gap between the Nasdaq and DJIA is going to narrow. The question is whether that will happen because of increased relative strength in the Nasdaq, decreased relative strength in the DJIA or, most likely, some combination of the two.
For the past couple of weeks I have been talking quite a bit about the possibility of a small-cap rally to conclude the year. There are good historic precedents for such action as well as structural issues such as taxes that tend to make it a fairly good bet. On top of that there is a good technical setup for such a move. If the Russell 2000 was as extended as the DJIA I would be very concerned about the ability to keep moving higher for a couple of weeks. The small-cap indices, as well as the Nasdaq, are set up very nicely to challenge the annual highs that they hit on Dec. 3. These indices are not extended and have good, solid bases to work form.
Breadth is probably the best early clue as to whether a rotation is starting. Nasdaq struggled most of the day yesterday with decliners exceeding advancers but managed to turn marginally positive in the last hour of the day. If Nasdaq breadth starts to outperform NYSE breadth watch for a rotation to start to build.
We have a quiet start to our last full trading day of the week. Overseas markets aren't doing much, both oil and gold are trading down a tad and the dollar is still struggling.
We are going to have very thin trading for the rest of the week with plenty of random action, so be careful out there.
Futuurid: Naz unch SP unch
sB