Turgude flirtimine optimismiga sai eile karmi reaalsuse osaliseks, kui avaldati core PPI, mis oli oodatust 0.2% kõrgem, mis idikeerib jätkuvalt suureneva inflatsiooni ohtu ning jahutab tarbimist. Dow Jones tööstuskeskmine kukkus eilsel kauplemispäeval pea 200 punkti olles -1.5% languses ning S&P 500 ja Nasdaq indeksid langesid -1% jagu.
Esmaspäevasest JP Morgani tehnoloogiaettevõtete konverentsist sai komistuskivi tehnoloogiaettevõtetele, kus SanDisk ja Micron said korraliku müügisurve osaliseks ning kogu sektor tuli korralikult allapoole. Uusi tippe tegev toornafta ja uuesti tõusu pööranud kuld indikeerivad samuti turgude optimismi kadumist. Home Depot-i ja Saks-i poolt avaldatud kvartalitulemused ning tagasihoidlikud prognoosid indikeerivad tarbimise vähenemist, mis on samuti vähendanud pullide optimismi.
Finantssektoris on jätkuvalt probleemid, mis sai kinnitust Oppenheimeri Meredith Whitney poolt, kes kärpis finantssektori väljavaateid ja prognoosis pankade poolt lisa mahakandeid $170 miljardi ulatuses 2009 aasta lõpuks. AIG tetas $20 miljardi lisakapitali kaasamisest ning Lehman Brothers on tuntavalt kärpinud taaskord Goldman Sachs-i ja Morgan Stanley prognoose.
Siiski on viimaste aegade optimism olnud märkimisväärne ja pullid on avaldanud korralikku ostusurvet, mis on saanud toetust maktoandmetest. Käibed on vähenenud, mis näitab selgelt aktiivsuse vähenemist suveperioodil, kuid tõusutrendi veel murtud ei ole ning tegemist võib olla väikse korrektsiooniga, kuid eilne päev andis ka karudele kindlust juurde. Järgnevate päevade liikumine saab olema äärmiselt huvitav ning peaks turu suuna jaoks olema väga oluline.
BERLIN, May 21 (Reuters) - German corporate sentiment unexpectedly rose in May, a closely watched survey showed on Wednesday, suggesting economic activity in Europe's largest economy may ease only slightly after a stellar first quarter.
Ja mitmed investorite riskiisu (risk appetite) näitajad on 7 kuu tippudel
Some of Wall Street's biggest investment banks are facing losses from a new direction in the second quarter as hedges they used to try to offset the impact of the subprime crisis have come unglued, The Wall Street Journal reported Wednesday. Firms used strategies including betting against indexes that track real-estate securities and leveraged loans. But some of those indexes have rallied as much as 50% since mid-March, while the securities the banks were hedging rose much less, or even fell, the newspaper reported. Lehman Brothers (LEH) appears to be the worst hit, with write-downs and losses on ineffective hedges likely to total $1.5 billion to $2 billion, the report said. Morgan Stanley (MS) will be more affected than Goldman Sachs (GS) or Merrill Lynch (MER), though its hedging losses will be less than half of Lehman's, it added.
Microsoft (MSFT) not bidding to buy Yahoo: CEO Ballmer
Reuters reports Microsoft (MSFT) isn't looking to bid to buy all of Yahoo (YHOO) but is in talks about other types of deals with the co, Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer said on Wednesday. "We are not bidding to buy Yahoo," Ballmer said at the launch of Microsoft's new research and development centre in Israel. "Yet, we are trying to have discussions about deals with Yahoo that might create value, but not a whole acquisition of the company," he said without elaborating further.
American International Group, Inc. (AIG-d kimbutamas jällegi halvad uudised:
The U.K.'s Financial Services Authority said Wednesday that it's fined Unat Direct, a subsidiary fo American International Group Inc. (AIG) 640,000 pounds ($1.26 million) for failings related to effective control and oversight of its appointment of call centers. The regulator said Unat did not carry out an acceptable level of due diligence on nine call centers it used before they began selling insurance products. In one case that meant a call center was operating for 250 days before Unat completed its due diligence and in another it resulted in a call center selling insurance when it wasn't authorized to do so by the regulator. The FSA said the fine would have been 800,000 pounds if the company hadn't cooperated and settled the investigation.
UBS divests mortgage assets to BlackRock at steep discount - finantssektoris jällegi suurte poiste mängud.
WSJ reports UBS said it has closed the sale of troubled mortgage-backed securities to a distressed asset-fund at a discount, indicative of the Swiss banking giant's efforts to reduce risky positions. The co said it sold subprime and Alt-a assets with a nominal value of $22 bln for around $15 bln to a special investment vehicle led by U.S. fund BLK. The distressed-asset fund bought the securities for $3.75 bln in equity raised by BlackRock and a multiyear collateralized term loan of $11.25 bln provided by UBS.
WSJ andmetel üritab Bushi administratsioon kasutada rahandusministeeriumi varasid õppelaenude väljaostmiseks hädas õppelaenu andjatelt.
WSJ reports hoping to bolster a shaky student loan market, the Bush Administration will use U.S. Treasury funds to buy loans from private lenders and invest in special loan-backed trusts. With students and parents beginning to borrow for the 2008-2009 school year, the one-year effort is designed to pump liquidity into the student loan mkt and persuade private lenders to continue participating in the govt's Federal Family Education Loan program, a crucial source of financial aid for many college students. In recent months, 88 lenders responsible for more than 14% of all new FFEL loans have either reduced or ended their participation in the program. "We are confident this plan will work to provide the necessary fixes in the near-term," Secretary of Education Margaret Spellings said in an interview. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, whose staff also worked on the plan, cautioned that the injection of federal funds into the student loan market -- which will only last for one school year -- isn't designed to be a long-term fix. "What we are going to be doing is talking with lenders and investors and thinking about how to get these markets to work the way they can work," Mr. Paulson said in an interview.
Finacial Times-i andmetel kukkusid USA äripindade hinnad S&P uuringute kohaselt.
FT reports commercial property prices in the US in February saw their sharpest decline since records began nearly 15 years ago as sources of finance for deals has dried up, according to data from Standard & Poor's out yesterday. The value of commercial buildings fell 1.03% between January and February, the largest monthly decline since at least 1993, when the industry was just emerging from a deep slump. Sales of commercial properties were down 71% in Q1 compared with a year earlier, according to data from Real Capital Analytics. Y/Y, property prices are still up by a relatively healthy 5.5%, but the pace of growth is slowing.
By Rev Shark RealMoney.com Contributor 5/21/2008 8:47 AM EDT
There are two days in the week on which I never worry; one is yesterday and the other is tomorrow. -- Robert Burdette
For the last couple of months, market players had done a good job of setting aside their worries and bidding this market up. A steady rise in food and energy prices had been ignored and inflation deemed a minor concern, especially since the CPI and PPI reports had been better than expected.
That indifference to inflation suddenly changed as crude oil prices suddenly spiked to record levels. The explanation in the press yesterday for the 200-point decline in the Dow Jones Industrial Average was inflationary concerns. There is also talk now that the Fed may be looking to raise rates before the end of the year.
The market has been largely ignoring the problem of inflation, using the argument that slow economic growth will prevent upward pressure on prices. The problem with this argument is that demand in emerging markets for oil and commodities is the source of the price pressures, and that has little to do with the U.S. domestic economy.
The market wants to believe in the old Goldilocks scenario in which growth is strong enough to prevent us from falling into a recession but weak enough to keep inflation from being a problem. It is a very fine line to walk, and the market is becoming a bit nervous over whether it is even possible.
In addition, even if economic growth stays tepid, there is no guarantee that inflationary pressures will cool. Certainly the slow U.S. economic growth we have seen in recent quarters doesn't support the huge spike in oil and commodity prices, so obviously other forces are at work there.
Technically, the major market indices are in precarious position. While they are still holding above key trend line supports, there are cracks appearing in the momentum, and this sudden focus on the negative aspects of high crude oil and commodity prices is coming as the market is looking for a reason to correct after a good run.
We have another rise in oil prices this morning, which is driving some sectors like bulk shipping and solar energy, but this is starting to weigh on the broader market to a greater degree now. With the indices close to a trend-line breakdown, caution is definitely in order.
----------------------------- Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: SOLF +10.1%, DY +7.5% (also announces $15 mln stock repurchase program), EGHT +4.3%, OCNF +4.1%, INTU +3.8%... Select drybulk shipping names showing strength: EGLE +2.4%, PRGN +2.0%, SBLK +1.8%, DRYS +1.8%, EXM +1.8%, TBSI +1.4%... Select oil/gas stocks showing strength with crude setting another all time high: RDS.A +3.1%, E +2.3%, BP +1.9%, TOT +1.8%... Other news: ADLR +19.2% (Adolor and GSK's Entereg wins FDA approval), IDEV +7.7% (presents "successful" Phase III NEBIDO data at American Urological Association), CEO +4.8% (still checking), CEGE +3.2% (reports "encouraging" interim data from phase 1 clinical trial of CG0070 in recurrent bladder cancer), DNDN +3.2% (presents preclinical data demonstrating activity of Trp-p8 agonist, D-3263, in benign prostatic hyperplasia), TWX +2.2% (Time Warner and Time Warner Cable confirm separation)... Analyst upgrades: CSUN +6.0% (upgraded to Hold at Jefferies), MU +3.4% (upgraded to Buy at Deutsche Bank), CENT +2.1% (upgraded to Outperform at Piper), MDT +1.1% (upgraded to Buy at tier 1 firm), RIO +1.0% (hearing named as top sector picks in Basic Materials at tier 1 firm).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: VRTU -11.9%, QXM -10.4% (very light volume), LTXX -9.7%, RRGB -6.9%, ADI -4.9% (also downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform at Pacific Crest), CHRS -4.8%, PHHM -4.1%... Select European financial names trading lower following weakness in overseas trading: RBS -3.7% , UBS -2.9% , HBC -1.6% , CS -1.4% , DB -1.2% , ING -1.1%... Other news: PEIX -6.2% (modestly pulling back after this week's 40%+surge higher), CCL -4.7% (still checking for anything specific, crude making new all time highs again; peer RCL -0.8%), PKX -3.1% (still checking), PCX -2.1% (announces $175 mln convertible note offering)... Analyst downgrades: UAUA -4.0% (downgraded to Sell at Soleil), AMR -3.7% (downgraded to Sell at Soleil), CLR -2.9% (downgraded to Neutral at JPMorgan), FSLR -2.3% (downgraded to Underperform at FBR), CAL -2.1% (downgraded to Hold at Soleil), NETC -1.8% (downgraded to Neutral at Merrill), ENS -1.5% (downgraded to Hold at Merriman), EP -1.2% (hearing downgraded to Neutral and removed from America Buy List at tier 1 firm).