Eile avaldas Imax (IMAX) andmed, kuidas Harry Potteri järjekordsel filmil Imaxi-ekraanidel läinud on. Kuna rahvusvaheliselt esilinastus film eelmisel kolmapäeval, siis esimese viie päeva peale teeniti 62s Imaxi kinos rekordilised $3.6 miljonit. Hoolimata rekorditest ollakse Euroopas Imaxi populaarsuse osas veel USAst maas, keskmine tulu ekraani kohta oli $58000, samal ajal esilinastunud kolmes USA Imaxi kinos oli vastav näitaja $143000. Järgmisel kolmapäeval hakatakse filmi näitama veel 161s USA kinos, mis tõstab globaalselt Harry Potterit näitavate Imaxi kinode arvu 231-ni.
Eilses WSJ's oli Bernanke kirjutatud (või vähemalt üle loetud) lugu Fedi käsutuses olevatest meetmetest võimaliku inflatsiooni ohjeldamiseks.
S&P 940st läbi. Põnev koht...
Terast pilku hoiame endiselt tulemuste hooajal. Teine nädal on alanud samas noodis eelmisega, kui ettevõtete käibed jäävad ligilähedaseks ootustele kuid aktsiakasumit lüüakse tänu agrassiivsele kulude kärpimisele ja analüütikute üsna madalatele ootustele. Täna avaldavad enne turgu oma raporti sellised ettevõtted nagu:Caterpillar, Coca-Cola, Merck, Schering-Plough ning peale turgu AMD, Apple, Starbucks, Yahoo!
Eesti aja järgi kell 17.00 esineb Bernanke oma poolaasta aruandega Kongressi ees, mida turud on harilikult jälginud üsna tähelepanelikult. Madise välja toodud artikkel peegeldab tõenäoliselt suuresti seda, millele keskpanga juht täna õhtul rõhu asetab.
Tänaseks kaheks tähtsamaks kvartalitulemuste avaldajaks võib pidada Caterpillarit (CAT) ja Apple't (AAPL). Esimene neist avaldab tulemused enne turgude avanemist, teine peale sulgemist.
Caterpillarilt oodatakse tulusid $8.86 miljardit ja aktsiapõhist kasumit $0.22. Eile tõusis aktsia 7.8%, kui BofA analüütik andis aktsiale ostusoovituse, viidates raskemasinate tsüklilisele põhjale teises kvartalis. Samas oodatakse turul endiselt, et Põhja-Ameerika müügimahud võisid kvartali jooksul langeda üle 50% yoy, mõningane leevendus võiks tulla arenevatest riikidest.
Caterpillarilt oodatakse tulusid $8.86 miljardit ja aktsiapõhist kasumit $0.22. Eile tõusis aktsia 7.8%, kui BofA analüütik andis aktsiale ostusoovituse, viidates raskemasinate tsüklilisele põhjale teises kvartalis. Samas oodatakse turul endiselt, et Põhja-Ameerika müügimahud võisid kvartali jooksul langeda üle 50% yoy, mõningane leevendus võiks tulla arenevatest riikidest.
Analüütikud on Apple’i (AAPL) suhtes valdavalt positiivsed ning tulemuste eel prognoose kergitamas. Põhjuseks mõistagi fenomenaalset edu nautiv iPhone, millelt oodatakse jätkuvalt tugevaid müüginumbreid. Seda enam, et hiljuti alandati odavaima iPhone’i mudeli hind vaid $99-ni. Samuti nähakse tänu uuele 13“ Macbook Pro’le head minekut ka Apple’i sülearvutite müüginumbrites. Mitmete toodete hinnakärped suunavad investorite fookuse Apple’i brutomarginaalidele, mis seni on püsinud märkimisväärselt tugevad.
Ootused on kahtlemata kõrged, sest Intel’i (INTC) konverentsikõnel kõlanud kommentaarid PC-turu kohta olid väga optimistlikud. Samuti ei jahutanud investorite indu Nokia (NOK) kesised tulemused – pigem nähakse konkurendi suutmatust nutitelefoni turul positiivse tegurina
Ootused on kahtlemata kõrged, sest Intel’i (INTC) konverentsikõnel kõlanud kommentaarid PC-turu kohta olid väga optimistlikud. Samuti ei jahutanud investorite indu Nokia (NOK) kesised tulemused – pigem nähakse konkurendi suutmatust nutitelefoni turul positiivse tegurina
Apple on alates 2006. aasta detsembrist löönud oma kvartaalset aktsiakasumi prognoosi keskmiselt 39% ning käibe ootust 7%. Seega juunis väljastatud numbrite kohaselt (EPS 0.98 USD ja müügitulu 7.8 mld USD) peaksid tänaõhtused näitajad olema 1.36 dollarit aktsia kohta ja 8.35 mld dollarit genereeritud müügitulu. Konsensus ootab aga vastavalt $1.16 ja $8.18 mld. Graafik Businessinsideri vahendusel:
Credit Suisse tõstab S&P500 2009. aastalõpu prognoosi 920 punkilt 1050'le. Kuigi rong lahkus juba märtsis jaamast, pöörati nüüd strateegia ümber - aktsiad "overweight" & valitsuse võlakirjad "benchmark"
Real Baa Yields are Now Way Below the ‘Magical 5%’
More fuel to the fire from CSFB:
Bottom Line: UPGRADING Equities to OVERWEIGHT, RAISING S&P 500 year-end target to 1,050 ( from 920).
We believe we’re halfway through the first ‘V’ of an upward sloping W-shaped recovery, with a likely peak in early Q4. Earnings revisions are now positive
for the first time since Aug ‘07 in spite of margins still being above levels at which they troughed in prev. recessions. Risk & sentiment indicators have
returned to more normal levels (VIX, IG credit spreads, ISM new orders). Some tactical indicators have improved (net issuance reached 2.5% of mkt cap 6
weeks ago and is now 0). Lower core inflation dampens fears of monetary tightening, keeps mortgage rates low and supports valuations.
Bottom Line: UPGRADING Equities to OVERWEIGHT, RAISING S&P 500 year-end target to 1,050 ( from 920).
We believe we’re halfway through the first ‘V’ of an upward sloping W-shaped recovery, with a likely peak in early Q4. Earnings revisions are now positive
for the first time since Aug ‘07 in spite of margins still being above levels at which they troughed in prev. recessions. Risk & sentiment indicators have
returned to more normal levels (VIX, IG credit spreads, ISM new orders). Some tactical indicators have improved (net issuance reached 2.5% of mkt cap 6
weeks ago and is now 0). Lower core inflation dampens fears of monetary tightening, keeps mortgage rates low and supports valuations.
CAT tulemused üle ootuste, tõstab 2009. aasta kasumiprognoosi, S&P futuur teeb oma 0,5% tõusu
päris kõvasti üle 0.72 v 0.22
Kuidas parem EPS saadakse? Ikka läbi kulude kokkuhoiu, CATi tulud olid kohutavad ning 2009. aasta jääb alla konsensuse. Samas on kõrgem EPS loomulikult hea, lihtsalt tahaks näha ka tugevat top-line'i.
EPS 0.72 oli excluding redundancy costs, ilma selleta 0.60
redundancy costs on vist töötajate arvu vähendamisega seotud kulud?
redundancy costs on vist töötajate arvu vähendamisega seotud kulud?
Euroopa turud:
Saksamaa DAX +1.4%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 +1.3%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 +1.0%
Hispaania IBEX 35 +0.3%
Venemaa MICEX +2.5%
Poola WIG +0.9%
Hiina indeksite dramaatiline 1.6%-line langus on ühtlasi viie viimase nädala suurim :)
Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 +2.7%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng -0.0%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) -1.6%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) -1.6%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq +0.5%
Tai Set 50 -0.8%
India Sensex 30 -0.9%
Valuutaturul on EUR/USD hetkel 1.4231 dollari juures, mis on madalamal eilsest 1.4250 tipust. EUR/USD sõltub hetkel suuresti riskitaluvusest & on tugevalt aktsiaturgude tõusuga korreleerunud. Lühiajaliselt paar põhjust, miks valuutapaar võiks pigem siit allapoole sõita:
-aktsiaturgudel on tõus võimas & siit on raske riskitaluvust veelgi suurendada
-dollari kui reservvaluuta debatt on hetkel raugemas (vähemalt on hiinlased mõni nädal vaikinud)
-Fed tahab näidata, et suudab inflatsiooni kontrollida (loe eelnevalt Madise poolt pandud Bernanke artiklit)
-tähelepanu on pos. pikaajalistel trendidel (USA kaubandusbilanss paraneb, ameeriklased on hakanud säästma)
Kui aktsiaturud peaks aga jätkama tõusu, kuna sarnaselt CAT’ile on 2Q09 tulemused (vähemalt kasumid) siiani olnud oodatust paremad, siis võib €/$ eilsest 14250 tipust läbi põrutada ja järgmine oluline tase on 2009. aasta tipp 1.4339.
Avoid Euphoria and Undue Pessimism Alike
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
7/21/2009 9:11 AM EDT
It is a mistake to look too far ahead. Only one link in the chain of destiny can be handled at a time.
-- Winston Churchill
The Nasdaq has been up nine days in a row for the first time in about 10 years. With a highly anticipated positive earnings report from Apple (AAPL) tonight and some good earnings from Caterpillar (CAT) , Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) , Coke (KO) and Texas Instruments (TXN) this morning, the quest for a 10th day of gains is off to a good start.
Earnings reports continue to show good bottom-line results relative to expectations due primarily to massive cost-cutting, but revenue growth has been anemic at best. The market doesn't much care right now, and as long as the bottom-line number beats analysts' expectations we are seeing positive results. Even stocks that have run up quite a bit the past week such as CAT are jumping on their numbers. One exception is TXN, which had a solid report but is seeing a "sell the news" reaction after running straight up since the Intel (INTC) report last week.
The market has had a remarkable move over the past week, with an almost parabolic rise. A lot of folks like those on CNBC's "Fast Money" are giddy with delight, but for market players looking to make new buys, this market presents quite a dilemma. Obviously we have very strong momentum, as we have been going straight up, but that produces extended and overbought charts that don't invite good entries. In addition, with more major earnings reports, the potential for a "sell the news" reaction is increased. It is going to be particularly interesting to see how AAPL reacts tonight. Expectations are extremely high and the stock has moved up from about $136 to $153 over the past week as everyone is looking for blowout numbers.
So do we take our idle cash and dive into this market that has gone straight up for nine days in a row now? Maybe if we can find stocks that aren't too extended already. There are some, but they are tough to find and if they have been lagging the market, you have to wonder if there is a reason for it.
Even if you are unwilling to pay up for some of these stocks that have made big moves, that doesn't mean you should be unduly bearish or aggressively shorting. One of the keys to success in the market is to not fight the prevailing trend. Markets that are trending strongly don't quickly or easily reverse. There is always a big group of folks who have been left behind who are anxious to jump in on slight pullbacks. That underlying support will only go away after the market has struggled for a bit and stops making major gains.
The important thing now is to not get sucked into the euphoria after the market has already made its move -- don't throw caution to the wind. If you are going to make some buys, then stay disciplined and don't just grab something because you are frustrated with not being more heavily invested over the past week.
With AAPL earnings tonight and Ben Bernanke testifying before Congress today, the market is likely to hold steady. With the number of extended stocks out there, though, new buys are going to be very difficult.
--------------------------------------------------
Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: JDAS +21.1%, LAB +14.9% (light volume), PKG +14.8% (upgraded to Buy at Deutsche), USPH +13.3%, MAIL +12.7%, CAT +10.1%, JEF +8.4%, LM +5.5%, MICC +5.2%, UNH +4.9%, DD +4.0%, MRK +3.3%, BSX +2.9%, FCX +2.8%, AMTD +2.7%, ELN +2.5%, MDRX +2.0%, DGX +2.0%, BLK +1.7%... Select solar names ticking higher: JASO +6.4%, YGE +5.7%, SOL +5.6%, STP +5.3%, TSL +3.1%, FSLR +2.8%... Select construction/ag related names showing strength boosted by CAT results: MTW +6.1%, DE +4.4%, JOYG +4.3%, TEX +2.8%... Select casino related names trading higher: LVS +5.0% (upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at BMO Capital), WYNN +3.9%, ACAS +2.8%... Other news: CGEN +13.5% (announces 'positive' therapeutic effects of novel peptide in animal model of retinopathy), LXRX +12.9% (light volume; drug candidate LX1032 for carcinoid syndrome receives orphan drug designation from EMEA), PLX +10.5% (still checking), HNT +9.8% (UnitedHealthcare to acquire Health Net's Northeast licenses and rights to renew membership), CIT +8.0% (announces $3 bln credit facility and initiates recapitalization plan), ALKS +7.0% (Exenatide once weekly provided superior glucose control compared to Lantus in head-to-head DURATION-3 study), INCY +5.8% (reaches agreement with FDA on a Special Protocol Assessment for INCB18424 in myelofibrosis), RBS +4.0% (still checking), SPPI +3.9% (says FDA designates Fast Track status for Apaziquone for bladder cancer), MON +3.1% (Monsanto, Dow AgroSciences complete U.S. and Canadian Regulatory Authorizations for SmartStax corn; plans set to launch seed platform on 3-4 mln-plus acres), AMLN +1.1% (Exenatide once weekly provided superior glucose control compared to Lantus in head-to-head DURATION-3 study)... Analyst comments: IP +6.2% (upgraded to Buy at Deutsche), USB +1.1% (initiated with an Outperform at Credit Suisse).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: IDIX -10.0%, LXK -9.4%, RF -8.7%, ZION -6.7% (also downgraded to Sell at Citigroup), FWRD -5.6% (light volume), WERN -4.1%, STT -3.9%, EW -2.7%, ICUI -2.4%, BTU -2.4%, TXN -1.9%, UTX -1.7%... Other news: CVBF -8.0% (commences an offering of ~$115 mln of its common stock in an underwritten public offering), CGA -6.4% (prices 3.5 mln share common stock offering at $7.15/share), STSA -6.3% (announces filing of universal shelf registration), CEDC -1.7% (prices 8.35 mln common share offering at $24.00/share)... Analyst comments: CTXS -3.0% (downgraded to Underperform at BofA/Merrill), TK -1.9% (downgraded to Underweight at JPMorgan).
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
7/21/2009 9:11 AM EDT
It is a mistake to look too far ahead. Only one link in the chain of destiny can be handled at a time.
-- Winston Churchill
The Nasdaq has been up nine days in a row for the first time in about 10 years. With a highly anticipated positive earnings report from Apple (AAPL) tonight and some good earnings from Caterpillar (CAT) , Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) , Coke (KO) and Texas Instruments (TXN) this morning, the quest for a 10th day of gains is off to a good start.
Earnings reports continue to show good bottom-line results relative to expectations due primarily to massive cost-cutting, but revenue growth has been anemic at best. The market doesn't much care right now, and as long as the bottom-line number beats analysts' expectations we are seeing positive results. Even stocks that have run up quite a bit the past week such as CAT are jumping on their numbers. One exception is TXN, which had a solid report but is seeing a "sell the news" reaction after running straight up since the Intel (INTC) report last week.
The market has had a remarkable move over the past week, with an almost parabolic rise. A lot of folks like those on CNBC's "Fast Money" are giddy with delight, but for market players looking to make new buys, this market presents quite a dilemma. Obviously we have very strong momentum, as we have been going straight up, but that produces extended and overbought charts that don't invite good entries. In addition, with more major earnings reports, the potential for a "sell the news" reaction is increased. It is going to be particularly interesting to see how AAPL reacts tonight. Expectations are extremely high and the stock has moved up from about $136 to $153 over the past week as everyone is looking for blowout numbers.
So do we take our idle cash and dive into this market that has gone straight up for nine days in a row now? Maybe if we can find stocks that aren't too extended already. There are some, but they are tough to find and if they have been lagging the market, you have to wonder if there is a reason for it.
Even if you are unwilling to pay up for some of these stocks that have made big moves, that doesn't mean you should be unduly bearish or aggressively shorting. One of the keys to success in the market is to not fight the prevailing trend. Markets that are trending strongly don't quickly or easily reverse. There is always a big group of folks who have been left behind who are anxious to jump in on slight pullbacks. That underlying support will only go away after the market has struggled for a bit and stops making major gains.
The important thing now is to not get sucked into the euphoria after the market has already made its move -- don't throw caution to the wind. If you are going to make some buys, then stay disciplined and don't just grab something because you are frustrated with not being more heavily invested over the past week.
With AAPL earnings tonight and Ben Bernanke testifying before Congress today, the market is likely to hold steady. With the number of extended stocks out there, though, new buys are going to be very difficult.
--------------------------------------------------
Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: JDAS +21.1%, LAB +14.9% (light volume), PKG +14.8% (upgraded to Buy at Deutsche), USPH +13.3%, MAIL +12.7%, CAT +10.1%, JEF +8.4%, LM +5.5%, MICC +5.2%, UNH +4.9%, DD +4.0%, MRK +3.3%, BSX +2.9%, FCX +2.8%, AMTD +2.7%, ELN +2.5%, MDRX +2.0%, DGX +2.0%, BLK +1.7%... Select solar names ticking higher: JASO +6.4%, YGE +5.7%, SOL +5.6%, STP +5.3%, TSL +3.1%, FSLR +2.8%... Select construction/ag related names showing strength boosted by CAT results: MTW +6.1%, DE +4.4%, JOYG +4.3%, TEX +2.8%... Select casino related names trading higher: LVS +5.0% (upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at BMO Capital), WYNN +3.9%, ACAS +2.8%... Other news: CGEN +13.5% (announces 'positive' therapeutic effects of novel peptide in animal model of retinopathy), LXRX +12.9% (light volume; drug candidate LX1032 for carcinoid syndrome receives orphan drug designation from EMEA), PLX +10.5% (still checking), HNT +9.8% (UnitedHealthcare to acquire Health Net's Northeast licenses and rights to renew membership), CIT +8.0% (announces $3 bln credit facility and initiates recapitalization plan), ALKS +7.0% (Exenatide once weekly provided superior glucose control compared to Lantus in head-to-head DURATION-3 study), INCY +5.8% (reaches agreement with FDA on a Special Protocol Assessment for INCB18424 in myelofibrosis), RBS +4.0% (still checking), SPPI +3.9% (says FDA designates Fast Track status for Apaziquone for bladder cancer), MON +3.1% (Monsanto, Dow AgroSciences complete U.S. and Canadian Regulatory Authorizations for SmartStax corn; plans set to launch seed platform on 3-4 mln-plus acres), AMLN +1.1% (Exenatide once weekly provided superior glucose control compared to Lantus in head-to-head DURATION-3 study)... Analyst comments: IP +6.2% (upgraded to Buy at Deutsche), USB +1.1% (initiated with an Outperform at Credit Suisse).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: IDIX -10.0%, LXK -9.4%, RF -8.7%, ZION -6.7% (also downgraded to Sell at Citigroup), FWRD -5.6% (light volume), WERN -4.1%, STT -3.9%, EW -2.7%, ICUI -2.4%, BTU -2.4%, TXN -1.9%, UTX -1.7%... Other news: CVBF -8.0% (commences an offering of ~$115 mln of its common stock in an underwritten public offering), CGA -6.4% (prices 3.5 mln share common stock offering at $7.15/share), STSA -6.3% (announces filing of universal shelf registration), CEDC -1.7% (prices 8.35 mln common share offering at $24.00/share)... Analyst comments: CTXS -3.0% (downgraded to Underperform at BofA/Merrill), TK -1.9% (downgraded to Underweight at JPMorgan).
CIT Group räägib turgu veidi alla ... Says if it does not receive enough tenders of August 17 notes and a minimum tender condition is not waived, it may need to file for bankruptcy absent alternative financing