Börsipäev 21. juuli

Henno küsimusele on siin jäänud enne vastamata. Teen seda siis ise. 'Redundancy costs' puhul on tegu puhtalt 'koondamiskuludega' (mis on oma olemuselt ühekordsed kulutused).
Senate Finance Committee's Baucus says panel making 'significant headway' in bipartisan talks on healthcare bill
Ja turg spikes sellise pealkirja peale????
Ja veel selline ettepanek:
US Treasury sends rating agency reform proposal to Hill; SEC would get power to examine ratings policies, procedures

Moodyse poolt huvitavat lugemist:

Moody's says U.S. commercial real estate markets' decline accelerates

The downward spiral in commercial real estate market fundamentals has accelerated as the recession persists, Moody's Investors Service says in its latest Red-Yellow-Green study. For the first time in six years, none of the seven property types tracked by Moody's has a "green" or strong score, while four of the property types are at levels of weakness unmatched in the almost 10-year history of the study. The two hotel sectors--full service and limited service--continued to post lowest possible scores of 0 during the first quarter, while the industrial sector recorded its all-time worst score as it fell into red territory. Multifamily deteriorated enough to fall from green into yellow, where it joins the retail and the central business district office sectors. Moody's says that while supply pipelines do continue to dry up across all property types, forecasted demand has similarly dropped, so that demand projections for six of the seven property types worsened during the quarter. In addition, vacancy rates have maintained a steadily increasing trend among all property types (except hotels where they are not measured), and the poor absorption expectations do little to assuage the tide of availability. Given the bleak forecasts, any significant improvement in Red-Yellow-Green scores is unlikely in the coming quarters. Among hotels, year-over-year RevPAR fell below the record lows reached the previous quarter and now lag the baseline measure by levels never seen before. Moody's Red-Yellow-Green report scores markets on a scale of 0 (weak) to 100 (strong) and describes them in traffic light colors, with scores of 0-33 identified as red, 34-66 as yellow, and 67 -- 100 as green. The new second quarter study reflects data from the first quarter of 2009.

Yahoo Inc. (YHOO) said Tuesday its second-quarter net income rose to $143 million, or 10 cents a share, from $132.4 million, or 9 cents a share in the same period a year earlier. Net revenue in the period ended in June fell to $1.14 billion from $1.35 billion, the Sunnyvale, Calif.-based Internet giant said. Wall Street analysts on average had been expecting Yahoo to post second-quarter earnings of 8 cents a share and $1.14 billion in net revenue, according to data from Thomson Reuters.
Starbucks (SBUX) reported a third-fiscal-quarter profit of $151.5 million, or 20 cents a share. A year ago, the coffee retailer lost $6.7 million, or 1 cent a share, due to charges to cover store closures and workforce cuts. Sales fell to $2.4 billion in the recently completed quarter from a year-earlier $2.6 billion. Analysts had pegged Starbucks to earn 19 cents a share on sales of $2.37 billion, according to FactSet Research. Traffic at Starbucks stores has improved from earlier this year. Sales at stores open a year or more fell 5% during the quarter, compared with an 8% decline for quarter ended March 29. In addition, the Seattle-based company said it plans to cut $550 million in annual costs, up from its previous savings target of $500 million. Starbucks shares have steamed 55% higher this year. The stock closed Tuesday at $14.69.

Järelturul kauplemas ~9% kõrgemal.
Apple (AAPL) Q3 net income $1.35 vs $1.19 a share, Q3 revenue $8.34 bln vs $7.46 bln. Esimene reaktsioon -2% kuid nüüd kauplemas ~$155 tasemel. Apple sells 10.2 mln iPods in Q3, down 7%. Q4 EPS of $1.18-$1.23 Apple targets Q4 rev of $8.7 bln-$8.9 bln.
Ma pole just kõige kirkam kriit karbis, aga Apple järelturu pluss jääb mulle natuke arusaamatuks:
a) Kõik analüütikud ja nende vanaema naabri lellepojad rääkisid ette, et tuleb täitsa tugev kvartal. Aktsia seetõttu viimase kolmveerand aasta tippude juures ja mitte kaugel kõigi aegade tippudest.
b) Tulemused on tugevad, aga kus on üllatus? Kas tõesti keegi ootas, et numbrid tulevad kurvemad? Kõik numbrid, nii iPhone, Macid, iPodid, samuti top- ja bottom line, marginaalid jne on suhteliselt ootustele vastavad.
c) Järgmise kvartali guidance paistab esmapilgul varasemast vähem allpool "ootusi". Antud juhul ootused jutumärkides, sest Apple on alati guidancega võrreldes järgmise kvartali analüütikute konsensusega konservatiivne olnud. See paistab ka olevat põhiline põhjus, miks aktsia üleval on..
d) AAPL aktsiale on praegu 13 Strong Buy, 16 Buy, 8 Hold ja 2 Underperform reitingut. Kinda ühesse auku või mis?

Ühesõnaga, mis ma öelda tahan: tulemused ja prognoosid on kõik head, aga.. see ei tohiks kedagi üllatada ja kes selle peale ostma tuleks?

Seega virtuaalne short AAPL @ $158. Homme ootaks kasumivõttu ja võibolla ka 1-2 valuatsioonipõhist downgradet.
Tegelt, downgradesid ei usu, see on ikka äärmiselt haruldane juhus, kui analüütik downgradeb nii jälgitavat aktsiat valuatsiooni peale heade tulemuste järel.
Target oleks $150 homme päeva lõpuks. Virtuaalne treid nagu juba öeldud :)
Miks ainult virtuaalne siis? Short it to hell! :)
Värvilised joonekesed ehk abiks? Aastasel graafikul on Fib 78,6 tase $158. Heade tulemuste peale liiguti kõrgema leveli piirile. Kui homme ES tõuseb (asub ka olulise piiri peal), siis tõuseb ka AAPL. Kui ES kukub, siis saad oma lühikesega plussi.
Lisaks projektsioon liikumisest, millega lennati lippu sisse, mis eeldab, et sealt sama palju välja lennatakse.
Niisiis tehniliselt kaks põhjust liikumisele.
jim, AAPL suudab lisaks heale tootele ka om religiooni väikest viisi genereerida. ntx. Cook stuck to his mantra: that Apple’s goal is not to build the most computers, but to build the best computers. jne.
Üllatuste puudumine rõhutab ka stabiilsust ja seda me kõik otsime!
Väike huumor, kuid arvestatav.
Näen, et S&P teeb aasta tipu tasemel 999.
Nojah, AAPL on maailma parim aktsia ja üldse aktsiad ei kuku enam kunagi. Nii et sitt treid. Kõiki aktsiaid tuleb ainult osta.