Kuigi eilne langus USAs oli muljetavaldav, on Aasia turud suhteliselt hästi vastu pidanud. Hong Kong on üle 3% ning Jaapan üle 2% miinuses, teiste turgude langus on olnud väiksem. Arvestades, kui palju Aasia on turud viimastel kuudel tõusnud, on ka seal trendi murdmine üsna tõenäoline. Sama käib ka Venemaa kohta, mis tänu nafta langusele eile korralikult kukkus. USAs juhib langust finants, mis enne oli ka peamiseks tõusumootoriks.
USAst ei ole täna ühtegi tähtsamat majandusraportit tulemas, olulisemad kvartalitulemuste avaldajad on enne turgu Caterpillar (CAT), Coca-Cola (KO), Merck (MRK), UAL (UAUA) ning pärast turgu AMD (AMD) ja Yahoo (YHOO).
Ka täna on finantsile suunda andmas kvartalitulemustega Bank of New York Mellon Corp (BK) ja U.S. Bancorp (USB).
Lisaks avaldab täna enne turgu oma tulemused RHI konkurent Manpower (MAN). Hoolimata nõrgast tööjõuturust, on tööjõuvahendusfirmade aktsiad tugevalt tõusnud, peamiseks teesiks on olnud helgem lähitulevik. Optimism tundub igal juhul põhjendamatu, lähiajal ei parane tööjõuturul küll midagi.
Enne tulemusi on Manpower ka mitu negatiivset kommentaari saanud. Eile ütles Barclays, et 2009. aasta konsensuse prognoosid on MANi puhul liiga kõrged, esimesest kvartalist oodatakse tulude langust 23% yoy ning EPSi -$0.07 (kons. -$0.08).
Given scale of 1Q09 employment losses (both in U.S. & Europe) and tougher F/X comps, firm expects very weak results throughout '09 and into '10. Firm believes street ests for both years are too high and expect negative revisions tomorrow.
Lisaks langetas MANi ootusi ka Robert W. Baird. Selle aasta EPSi ootuseid langetati $1.32 --> $0.80 ning 2010. aasta ootuseid $2.15 --> $1.81. Esimesest kvartalist oodatakse kahjumit koguni -$0.29. Lisaks alandas Baird ka RHI prognoose:
The analyst also cut his profit estimates for Robert Half International Inc., reducing his 2009 earnings estimate by 10 cents to 28 cents per share, and lowering his 2010 estimate to 68 cents per share from 85 cents per share.
***Saksan ZEW-indeksi 13,0 huhtikuussa (ennuste 2,0, ed. -3,5)
...mis iganes indeks see ka pole
...mis iganes indeks see ka pole
Investor confidence.
ZEW majanduskonjunktuuri indikaator peegeldab järgmise 6 kuu oodatava Saksamaa majandusarengu suhtes pessimistlikult ja optimistlikult meelestatud analüütikute suhet. Seega aprillis on finantssektoris töötavavate ekspertide optimism kasvanud jõudsalt võrreldes märtsiga ning indeks jõudnud tagasi plussi pärast ca 2a pausi. Jooksvat seisu kajastav indeks kukkus aga kuuga -89.4-lt punktilt -91.6-le.
Üks positiivne artikkel Green Mountain Coffee Roastersi (GMCR) kohta. Ühtlasi on tegemist paljude hedge-fondide ühe lemmikaktsiaga. Muide, Keurigi single-cup kohvimasina ja GMCRi kohvi arvustused on nii suurepärased, et tekib endalgi isu proovida. Aga kas see ka aktsia taolist hinnatasemet õigustab, on iseasi. Tulemused 29. aprillil peale turgu.
Ja vastukaaluks ka üks negatiivne artikkel GMCRi kohta eilses Barronsis.
Bank of NY (BK) misses by $0.10, misses on revs; lowers quarterly dividend to $0.09 from $0.24 prior
BK eelturul juba -9.10% langusesse müüdud ja kauplemas $25.48 tasemel.
Tõsine tulemustesadu on käimas.
Caterpillari (CAT) tulemused oodatust paremad, guidance nõrk, aktsia -3.9% miinuses.
Coca-Cola (KO) EPS vastas ootustele, tulude osas jäädi alla, aktsia kerges miinuses.
Manpower (MAN) lõi EPSi osas ootusi suurelt, tuludes osa jäädi aga kõvasti alla. Tundub, et tegevusvõimendust on oluliselt vähendatud.
Caterpillari (CAT) tulemused oodatust paremad, guidance nõrk, aktsia -3.9% miinuses.
Coca-Cola (KO) EPS vastas ootustele, tulude osas jäädi alla, aktsia kerges miinuses.
Manpower (MAN) lõi EPSi osas ootusi suurelt, tuludes osa jäädi aga kõvasti alla. Tundub, et tegevusvõimendust on oluliselt vähendatud.
Morgan Stanley kommenteerib Bank of NY (BK) tulemusi:
"BK reported 1Q09 EPS of 28c. Stripping out investment & goodwill write-downs of 21c and M&A charges of 4c, we get to operating EPS of 53c, 14c light of our expectations and 10cc below the Street. The miss comes primarily from lower NIM (12c), lower servicing fees (7c) and lower fx (6c)."
"BK is one of our top picks in Large Cap banks. Earnings growth becomes more defensible with the merger benefits coming through in 2008-2009. Additionally, international earnings are building as BK leverages its product mix across its integrated footprint. Finally, BK has far less credit exposure than non-processor banks in the large cap coverage group."
Kuna see aasta tehakse koolides nii mõnigi bakalaureuse- või magistritöö võimendusega ETF'ide kohta, siis üks detailsem uurimus antud teemast. Juttu tuleb nii kumulatiivsest tootlusest, maksudetailidest, volatiilsust kui ka ETF'ides sisalduvatest instrumentidest.
Veelkord: FAZ vs FAS alates nende loomisest eelmise aasta novembri keskel:
Tulemusi täna tõesti väga palju, kuid nüüdseks kõik numbrid sisse viidud ka meie tulemuste tabelisse. Jätkub tendents, et ettevõtete tulud on kahanenud oodatust kiiremini, kuid sellest hoolimata üllatab EPS tihti positiivselt.
Koos Euroopa ja Aasia turgude miinustega, on ca 1% jagu allpool ka USA futuurid ning nafta hind -2.5% @ $47.35.
Saksamaa DAX -1.55%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 -1.85%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 -2.09%
Hispaania IBEX 35 -2.80%
Venemaa MICEX -1.57%
Poola WIG -0.25%
Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 -2.39%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng -2.95%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) -0.85%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) -0.65%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq +1.07%
Tai Set 50 -0.14%
India Sensex 30 -0.74%
Consolidation Is a Needed Phase of a Rally
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
4/21/2009 8:24 AM EDT
A thousand things advance; nine hundred and ninety-nine retreat: That is progress.
-- Henri Frederic Amiel
On Monday, the market suffered its worst one-day correction since a bounce began March 9. Breadth was quite poor and volume came in higher than average. Banks and retailers, which have been leading the market recently, were particularly weak.
There are earnings reports out this morning from the likes of Texas Instruments (TXN) , IBM (IBM) , Caterpillar (CAT) , Regions Financial (RF) , Northern Trust (NTRS) and Coke (KO) . Although some of them look to be ahead of analyst expectations, the overall reaction is mostly negative.
So is the beginning of the end of the six-week bounce? Does the reversal in banks that led us higher and the tepid reaction to some OK earnings mark a change in the character of the market? Is the idea that a new bull market was emerging now coming to an end?
Perhaps, but the market still has a good chance to prove itself and to set us up for further progress. In fact, a correction or consolidation at this point is what we need to ultimately create the circumstances for more progress.
It can be easy to forget that even strong markets move straight up only for a limited amount of time. We need shakeouts of weaker holders and opportunities for institutions to buy weakness. At some point, shorter-term players will hit the exits, take their gains and move back to higher levels of cash.
The pullback process is what gives us healthier psychological and emotional support for a continued rally. It is only when there are some seeds of doubt planted that we can continue to creep up the wall of worry. When things are too frothy, as they were for a few days last week, there may be panic-buying and performance anxiety, but stronger buyers are left out and are unable to build positions that better support the market.
The market made a very strong move off the March low and we hardly had a rest along the way. We only had two negative days in a row three times since March 9. That isn't much of a consolidation, and it shows us how much anxiety there was about being left out as the market ran.
We have certainly made progress by bouncing so strongly, but the next step in our progress may be to pull back further and find some support levels. Banks are weighing heavily at the moment, but it is exactly the sort of test that we need in order to set the stage for further progress.
-----------------------------
Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: THC +28.2%, DDRX 27.4% (light volume), HWAY +11.0%, PKG +8.4% (light volume), COH +7.0%, BSX +6.3%, UNH +5.3%, MLNX +4.7%, ASTE +4.1%, TXN +1.9%, MICC +1.7%... M&A news: ELX +43.4% (BRCM offers to acquire Emulex for $9.25 per share)... Select gold/silver related names ticking higher: AU +3.3%, GFI +1.8%, HMY +1.8%, SLV +1.3%, RTP +1.2%... Other news: DNDN +2.6% (initiates phase 1 clinical trial of small molecule targeting TRPM8 in cancer), SO +1.3% (light volume; raises quarterly dividend rate by 4.2% to $1.75/share)... Analyst comments: ABX +1.5% (upgraded to Overweight at Weisel), DEO +1.0% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BofA/Merrill),
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: HBAN -24.4%, ZION -17.6%, CHINA -14.3%, NTRS -13.2%, BJS -11.9%, WBS -11.8%, PBNY -10.7% (light volume), RF -10.0%, TCK -8.9%, BRCM -8.9% (Emulex is offered to be acquired by Broadcom for $9.25 per share), , KEY -8.0%, STT -7.7%, BK -6.4%, DT -6.2%, BK -5.5%, CMA -4.9% (light volume), MRK -3.9%, CAT -3.8%, JCI -3.8% (light volume), BPOP -3.7%, DD -2.8%, SYK -2.5%, IBM -2.3%, USB -1.9%, KO -1.5%, EAT -1.4% (light volume)... Select financial names showing weakness following earnings results from multiple names in the sector: FITB -12.3%, CIT -8.8%, BAC -8.4% (files mixed shelf registration for indeterminate amount), SLM -8.1%, ING -6.9%, C -5.8%, PUK -5.7%, STI -5.6%, XL -5.6%, HIG -5.2%, IRE -5.1%, BBT -4.6%, PNC -4.4%, HBC -4.1%, WFC -4.0%, MS -3.1% (Morgan Stanley may buy U.S. regional banks: Nikkei - Reuters), MET -3.0%, GS -1.3%... Select casino names trading lower: MGM -12.4%, LVS -7.4%... Analyst comments: ESI -4.8% (downgraded to Neutral at Credit Suisse), MEOH -4.8% (downgraded to Sell at Canaccord), TIE -4.3% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Citigroup), JEC -3.2% (downgraded to Neutral at UBS), DO -3.0% (downgraded to Sell at Goldman - Reuters), APOL -2.7% (downgraded to Neutral at Credit Suisse), AZN -2.4% (downgraded to Underperform at BofA/Merrill), HAL -2.3% (downgraded to Neutral at JPMorgan), NVS -1.1% (downgraded to Underperform at BofA/Merrill),
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
4/21/2009 8:24 AM EDT
A thousand things advance; nine hundred and ninety-nine retreat: That is progress.
-- Henri Frederic Amiel
On Monday, the market suffered its worst one-day correction since a bounce began March 9. Breadth was quite poor and volume came in higher than average. Banks and retailers, which have been leading the market recently, were particularly weak.
There are earnings reports out this morning from the likes of Texas Instruments (TXN) , IBM (IBM) , Caterpillar (CAT) , Regions Financial (RF) , Northern Trust (NTRS) and Coke (KO) . Although some of them look to be ahead of analyst expectations, the overall reaction is mostly negative.
So is the beginning of the end of the six-week bounce? Does the reversal in banks that led us higher and the tepid reaction to some OK earnings mark a change in the character of the market? Is the idea that a new bull market was emerging now coming to an end?
Perhaps, but the market still has a good chance to prove itself and to set us up for further progress. In fact, a correction or consolidation at this point is what we need to ultimately create the circumstances for more progress.
It can be easy to forget that even strong markets move straight up only for a limited amount of time. We need shakeouts of weaker holders and opportunities for institutions to buy weakness. At some point, shorter-term players will hit the exits, take their gains and move back to higher levels of cash.
The pullback process is what gives us healthier psychological and emotional support for a continued rally. It is only when there are some seeds of doubt planted that we can continue to creep up the wall of worry. When things are too frothy, as they were for a few days last week, there may be panic-buying and performance anxiety, but stronger buyers are left out and are unable to build positions that better support the market.
The market made a very strong move off the March low and we hardly had a rest along the way. We only had two negative days in a row three times since March 9. That isn't much of a consolidation, and it shows us how much anxiety there was about being left out as the market ran.
We have certainly made progress by bouncing so strongly, but the next step in our progress may be to pull back further and find some support levels. Banks are weighing heavily at the moment, but it is exactly the sort of test that we need in order to set the stage for further progress.
-----------------------------
Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: THC +28.2%, DDRX 27.4% (light volume), HWAY +11.0%, PKG +8.4% (light volume), COH +7.0%, BSX +6.3%, UNH +5.3%, MLNX +4.7%, ASTE +4.1%, TXN +1.9%, MICC +1.7%... M&A news: ELX +43.4% (BRCM offers to acquire Emulex for $9.25 per share)... Select gold/silver related names ticking higher: AU +3.3%, GFI +1.8%, HMY +1.8%, SLV +1.3%, RTP +1.2%... Other news: DNDN +2.6% (initiates phase 1 clinical trial of small molecule targeting TRPM8 in cancer), SO +1.3% (light volume; raises quarterly dividend rate by 4.2% to $1.75/share)... Analyst comments: ABX +1.5% (upgraded to Overweight at Weisel), DEO +1.0% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BofA/Merrill),
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: HBAN -24.4%, ZION -17.6%, CHINA -14.3%, NTRS -13.2%, BJS -11.9%, WBS -11.8%, PBNY -10.7% (light volume), RF -10.0%, TCK -8.9%, BRCM -8.9% (Emulex is offered to be acquired by Broadcom for $9.25 per share), , KEY -8.0%, STT -7.7%, BK -6.4%, DT -6.2%, BK -5.5%, CMA -4.9% (light volume), MRK -3.9%, CAT -3.8%, JCI -3.8% (light volume), BPOP -3.7%, DD -2.8%, SYK -2.5%, IBM -2.3%, USB -1.9%, KO -1.5%, EAT -1.4% (light volume)... Select financial names showing weakness following earnings results from multiple names in the sector: FITB -12.3%, CIT -8.8%, BAC -8.4% (files mixed shelf registration for indeterminate amount), SLM -8.1%, ING -6.9%, C -5.8%, PUK -5.7%, STI -5.6%, XL -5.6%, HIG -5.2%, IRE -5.1%, BBT -4.6%, PNC -4.4%, HBC -4.1%, WFC -4.0%, MS -3.1% (Morgan Stanley may buy U.S. regional banks: Nikkei - Reuters), MET -3.0%, GS -1.3%... Select casino names trading lower: MGM -12.4%, LVS -7.4%... Analyst comments: ESI -4.8% (downgraded to Neutral at Credit Suisse), MEOH -4.8% (downgraded to Sell at Canaccord), TIE -4.3% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Citigroup), JEC -3.2% (downgraded to Neutral at UBS), DO -3.0% (downgraded to Sell at Goldman - Reuters), APOL -2.7% (downgraded to Neutral at Credit Suisse), AZN -2.4% (downgraded to Underperform at BofA/Merrill), HAL -2.3% (downgraded to Neutral at JPMorgan), NVS -1.1% (downgraded to Underperform at BofA/Merrill),
Kas selle FAZ/FAS meeldetuletusgraafikuga tahetakse anda märku et pikemas perspektiivis mitte näppida? Et lõpuks läheneb nullile. Milliseid instrumente muidu soovitaksite mida osta turu langusele panustades?
sunnik, FAZ/FAS sobivad paremini lühiajalise sihiga kauplemisel, pikaajalisel hoidmisel on määramatus suur.