Börsipäev 21. aprill - päeval Nokia, õhtul Google

Investeerimine
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Täna tõotab tulla huvipakkuv börsipäev LHV klientidele

ca 10 minuti pärast Helsingis Nokia tulemused …

Õhtul peale turgu Google, Sandisk ja Netflix

NOK, GOOG, SNDK, NFLX - kõik olid ka selle nädala straddle ideed, seega jätkub tegevust nii enne tulemusi positsioonide sulgemisel kui üle tulemuste hoidmisel järelturul kasumi lukustamisel …

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Nokia Reuters consensus

EPS 0.15 EUR
Käive 7,1 mrd EUR

tuli käive 7,4 mrd EUR

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ja EPS 0.19
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2Q oodatakse 0,15-0,18€ kasumit aktsia kohta. analüütikud ootasid 0,17€. Käibeennustuse ülemine äär oli pea miljard oodatust suurem, kuid Nokialt oodatakse EPSi, seetõttu ka nii väike tõus.
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Nokia tulemused börsiteatena siin

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Nokia viimasel ajal kangesti konservatiivne olnud, ilmselt ka seekord (2Q prognoosid).

USA hindades Nokia juba üle $16 taseme, liikumisruumi siit ilmselt veel. Üsna palju sõltub ka USA sentimendist.
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Mulle meeldib eriti multimedia ja enterprise solutionite allüksuste tulemused. Multimedia korralikus rohelises (marginaal 13%) käibe kasv yoy 52%. Sõltuvus ainult mobile phoneside allüksusest väheneb pidevalt ning diversifikatsioon suureneb. Not bad IMHO.

B.
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Kiirelt tulemusi vaadates - mobiiliüksuses väga võimas müük, kuid alanenud marginaalid, võrguüksus (Networks) väga tugev.

Viimane peaks Ericssoni (ERICB, ERICY) toetama.
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Symbol Last At Change Bid Ask Low High Meur
NOK1V 12.36 13:00 +4.83% 11.87 11.88 11.80 12.40 408.931
Ma mötlesi, et Kaupalehti läss lolliks!

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mobiiliüksus on kõige rohkem turgu (tagasi) võtnud Euroopas (IQ müük '05 27,4 mio tk vs 21,6 mio tk, +27% yoy, müük IVQ04 32,8 mio), Hiinas (IQ müük '05 7,1 mio tk vs 4,2 mio tk, +69% yoy, müük IVQ04 5,9 mio) ja Aasias (IQ müük '05 10,6 mio tk vs 7,4 mio tk, +44% yoy, müük IVQ04 10,4 mio). Samas Põhja- (IQ müük '05 4,3 mio tk vs 6,5 mio tk, -33% yoy, müük IVQ04 8,0 mio) ja Ladina-Ameerikas (IQ müük '05 4,4 mio tk vs 5,0 mio tk, -12% yoy, müük IVQ04 9,0 mio) on turgu käest antud.

Kokku siis müük tükkides 52,8 mio IQ05 vs 44,7 mio IQ04, kasv +20%.

B.
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Kas NASDAQ hakkab täna rallima?
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Rev Shark:

Is This a Bottom? Here's How to Tell
4/21/05 8:06 AM ET

"It is a mistake to suppose that men succeed through success; they much oftener succeed through failures. Precept, study, advice, and example could never have taught them so well as failure has done.

-- Samuel Smiles

In the perverse world of the stock market it is repeated failures that set the stage for success. The more often investors try and fail, the more likely we are approaching a turning point. It is through the frustration and unhappiness of failure that the market rids itself of weak and uncertain investors and sets the stage for a new crop of confident buyers who will eventually succeed in turning the market.

Although I have a strong preference for bull markets I welcomed the reversal yesterday. The low-volume, wimpy bounces that we saw on Monday and Tuesday do not provide a healthy platform from which the market can launch a strong rally. There were too many overanxious bottom-calling bulls that were fervently hoping for a turn to bail them out of the positions they have been riding down.

The bounce was more a product of the hope and prayers of serial bottom callers than a washed-out market that had purged itself of weak holders. The disappointment yesterday after the good earnings report and the gap up may help change those circumstances. The folks who were hurt the most yesterday were the ones who needed the market to bail them out. The serial bottom callers took their stops and suffered some losses, but it was the longer-term bulls, who have been riding this market down recently, who felt the real pain and disappointment. In the stock market, it is that sort of frustration that helps us find a bottom.

So what do we do now? If you are a longer-term investor you continue to wait for signs that the market really has bottomed. You don't rush in at the first sign of strength like many did Monday and Tuesday. You wait for volume that shows that institutional buyers are deploying their capital and wait for proper chart setups so that your risk is contained and the odds of success increase.

I'm cringing a bit this morning at the bounceback of the indices on some good earnings reports. We saw yesterday that this is a market more worried about inflation than earnings and we have to be skeptical about to what degree investors are going to embrace a few good earnings reports. I'm sure there are plenty of discussions right now at various hedge funds about fading this open.

Oil is down rather sharply and gold is down on weakness in the dollar. Proceed with caution and don't worry about catching the exact bottom in this market.

Gary B. Smith:

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Ilu, ilus on börs mida armastan(vihkan)!
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lõhnab nagu suure käibega päeva järele? kuhupoole õhtuks liikumine jääb? pluss või miinus, viirus või siirus :)
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"Right now, the QQQQ options writers are about as unwilling as ever to write put options. They’ll gladly write you a call option, since they figure that the market won’t go up and make that option profitable (for you), but they want nothing to do with writing put options. One might think that options writers would be among the smarter portion of the trading community, just for the sake of being able to survive in that business, but the track record shows otherwise. Very low readings on this indicator are associated with price bottoms. The high readings are less consistent in terms of identifying where “high” is, but with the current reading down to the levels we saw at the August 2004 and March 2003 bottoms, it seems likely that we are seeing an indication of a similar sentiment condition forming in the current market."

McClellan Daily Report, April 20. 2005

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Kas näeme nüüd ligi 400 punktilist tõusu?
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GOOG 16:02 GOOG prelim $1.29 vs $0.92 Reuters consensus; revs $1.26 bln vs $1.16 bln Reuters consensus

pluss 10 puntki
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NFLX
Revenue 154.1M (est: 151.71M)
EPS -0.17 (est: -0.21)
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NFLX guidance rev kõvasti alla ootuste...