Kuigi PetroChina (PTR) aktsia langes eile päeva tippudelt tagasi $140.49 tasemele, lõpetati päev ikka 4.4% kõrgemal. Kütusehindade tõstmine Hiinas mõjub koheselt ettevõtte kasumile, sest seni on koos Sinopeciga (SNP) saadud rafineerimisest suuri kahjumeid. SNP tõusis eile ligi 8%, kuid kuna ettevõte on seni pidanud PTR-iga võrreldes importima rohkem naftat maailmaturult, on ka investorite kergendus arusaadavam.
Hiina kütusehindade tõus on väga oluline sündmus ning PTR võiks seetõttu kaubelda märgatavalt kõrgemal.
Goldman Sachs tõstab PTRi soovituse "müü" pealt "neutraalsele" (hinnasiht $137) ning SNP soovituse "osta" peale (hinnasiht $132). Mõlemad aktsiad eelturul sügavas miinuses (SNP -8.3%, PTR - 4%), arvatavasti lõpetavad päeva oluliselt kõrgemal.
Kordusena chatist: long some AMR @ 6.10. Mingid idikad müüvad seda, sest a) eile tõusis kõvasti b) nafta on üleval. Aga mina arvan, et Soleili upgrade jääb kokkuvõttes peale. Nad on viimasel ajal päris võimsalt lennufirmasid liigutanud.
By Rev Shark RealMoney.com Contributor 6/20/2008 9:02 AM EDT
When I'm bearish and I sell a stock, each sale must be at a lower level than the previous sale. When I am buying, the reverse is true. I must buy on a rising scale. I don't buy long stocks on a scale down, I buy on a scale up. -- Jesse Livermore
Yesterday, a dip in crude oil and some hope that financials might see an end to bad news helped the market bounce. This morning, crude oil is back up sharply as many doubt that price hikes in China really will cool demand, and financials are under pressure on a slew of new profit concerns. If you turned bullish yesterday, you are losing money this morning.
This very choppy action is keeping trading very tricky and to some degree is a consequence of frustrated efforts to call turning points in oil, financials and the overall market. The inclination of many market players isn't to respect the trend (as Jesse Livermore does), but to try to guess when it will end. What Livermore understood and made him successful was that trends tend to persist. They do not end easily. While there may be countertrend moves along the way, the best approach to making money is to assume that the major trend will continue and to keep trading in that direction.
Of course, that sounds a lot easier than it is. All trends will end, and no one wants to be caught leaning the wrong way when that happens, so we try to cut back when things become extended and we use stops and try to keep from being whipsawed. That can make for some difficult trading when we have a day like yesterday, when most of the action is contrary to the prevailing trends.
For quite a while now we have had a persistent uptrend in energy and cyclical groups like steel and fertilizer and a very aggressive downtrend in financials. The temptation to fight those trends can be quite great, but the way to make money is to assume they will continue. Days like yesterday will make that difficult at times, but if you follow Livermore's advice you increase your chances of success.
I continue to be concerned about the state of the major indices. What is most troubling to me is the wide divergence between the very poor-acting DJIA and the small-cap indices such as the Russell 2000. At some point that gap is going to narrow, and my concern is that its going to narrow by a sharp drop in small-cap stocks. That would make for some very ugly trading, but I don't see how small-caps can continue to outperform in this murky economic environment.
We are off to a weak start this morning, but the action has been extremely choppy lately, and I expect that to continue today as options expiration occurs and market players try to sort out the issues in oil and financials.
----------------------------- Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: OZRK +13.2%, LEI +3.6% and WU +1.9% (all light volume)... Select gold stocks showing strength: GOLD +2.3%, AUY +2.0%, ABX +1.8%... Other news: YMI +10.3% (announces FDA lifts clinical hold on AEROLEF AND clearance of a phase II clinical trial), PESI +7.3% (announces win of "Major Subcontract" at the Department of Energy Hanford Site), ENOC +5.7% (signs 110 megawatt contract with Southern California Edison), HBAN +5.1% (announces Q2 net charge-off and loan loss provision expectations; confirms Franklin Credit Mgmt relationship continues to perform to expectations), TS +4.8% (rises to record as Morgan Stanley raises price forecast - Bloomberg.com), MDR +1.9% and FWLT +1.5% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), TOT +1.5% (still checking)... Analyst upgrades: FITB +2.6% (upgraded to Outperform at Keefe Bruyette), BZH +2.1% (upgraded to Neutral at UBS), EXLS +1.3% (upgraded to Buy at Goldman - DJ).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: WGO -4.1%... Select China stocks trading lower following weakness in overseas trading: ACH -9.5% (first-half profit to drop by more than 50% - Bloomberg.com), HNP -9.3%, SNP -8.2%, YZC -5.0%, PTR -4.1%, SHI -2.5%... Select financial stocks showing weakness: MF -12.9% (tgt cut to $11 from $17 at Deutsche Bank; says uncertainty about MF prospects has increased - Bloomberg), RBS -5.4%, STI -5.2% (JPMorgan says STI has lowest reserves among large banks; says STI can issue preferred stock, sell assets - Bloomberg), BCS -4.8%, UBS -4.2% (estimates lowered by Lehman - Bloomberg), MER -3.8% (Reuters reports rumors that MER to issue profit warning are hurting European bank stocks, S&P futures), LEH -2.9%, DB -2.1% (estimates lowered by Lehman - Bloomberg), CS -1.1% (estimates lowered by Lehman - Bloomberg)... Select airlines/travel leisure names showing weakness with crude trading higher: UAUA -8.8%, LCC -7.9%, NWA -6.1%, CAL -6.0% (announces pricing of public equity offering at $14.80), DAL -4.1%, CCL -2.6%, RCL -1.7%... Other news: MBI -10.4% (Moody's downgrades MBIA's rating to A2; outlook is negative), ABK -6.4% (Moody's cuts Ambac Assurance to Aa3 vs Aaa), FLE -5.4% (announces offering of 12,000,000 shares of common stock), NOK -2.4% (still checking), CINF -1.6% (sees net written premiums to be as ~5% below the prior year; co's current assessment suggests that it may not be in its best interest to sell FITB immediately)... Analyst downgrades: IRF -7.4% (downgraded to Sell at Citigroup), SNDK -5.1% (downgraded to Hold at Citigroup), BVF -4.4% (downgraded to Underperform from Sector Perform at CIBC), CTSH -3.8% (downgraded to Neutral at Goldman - DJ), SYMC -3.5% (downgraded to Market Perform at FBR), DENN -2.7% (downgraded to Neutral at Merriman).
Short a bit OZRK @ 17.75. See peab bouncema küll täna, aga 12% tundub natuke ülepingutatuna. Regionaalpankade valuatsioonid on alla tulnud ja ei näe põhjust, miks peaks samadele tasemetele tagasi jõudma, isegi kui mõnel tõesti kapitalipuudust ei ole. Pealegi kauples see eile järelturul samadel tasemetel, aga siis ei olnud negatiivseid kommentaare Merrillilt, JP Morganilt ja teistelt.
Mõned põhjused, mis regionaalpangad pihta on saanud:
The shares of several large U.S. regional banks that lend in Florida or Michigan fell sharply on Wednesday after Fifth Third Bancorp said it will slash its dividend 66 percent and raise at least $2 billion of capital to cope with mounting credit losses in those states.
Fifth Third also said commercial nonperforming assets may rise 45 percent from the first quarter, mainly from deteriorating commercial construction and mortgage portfolios in Florida and eastern Michigan.
Eks sama hakati kartma ka teiste pankade puhul, aga RF on juba sellest ajast ca 15% langenud. Kusagil on piir, kus (võimalik) dividendide langetamine enam väga hull ei tundu. Aga mu küsimärk ei olnud asjata.