Üha enam ja enam kuuleme võlakirjade kindlustajatest - õnneks lähiajal saabub ka nii-öelda lõpp-mäng. Kas võlakirjade kindlustajad suudavad oma ettevõtetesse kohustuste täitmiseks kaasata suures hulgas lisakapitali; lõhkuda ettevõte kaheks tükis, kus üks osa jääb kvaliteetseid munitsipaalvõlakirju katma ning teine osa riskantseid CDO'sid ja muud portfelli eksootilist osa; või alandavad Moody, S&P ning teised oma reitingu väljavaateid nendele ettevõtetele, mis võivad kaasa tuua päris korraliku odavmüügi ning varade järjekordse mahakirjutamiste laine pankade poolt.
Siin on üks lühike, aga väga hea artikkel sellest, et kui minnakse ettevõtete osadeks lammutamise teed, on tagajärjed väga nutused. Morgan Stanley: ``This is one of the worst possible outcomes for the market''. Suuruselt kolmas võlakirjade kindlustaja FGIC andis omapoolselt juba avalduse eelmisel nädalal sisse, et ettevõtet kahte ossa jagada. Mäletatavasti sai ka FGIC downgrade'e ning nende peale liikus turg väga teravalt allapoole. Kui ikkagi ka kaks suuremat kindlustajat MBI ja ABK peaksid oma krediidireitingu downgrade'i kätte saama, võiks ka siinkohal oodata negatiivset reaktsiooni.
Majandusraporteid täna tulemas ei ole - inflatsiooni koha pealt olulised numbrid jaanuarikuu tarbijahinnaindeksi muutumise osas tulevad alles homme enne turgu (ootus +0.3% vs detsembri +0.4% ning kui energia ja toit välja jätta, siis ootus on +0.2% vs detsembri +0.2%). Lisaks tuleb andmeid ehitusturult, kust oodatakse, et väljastatud ehituslubade arv ning alustatud ehituste arv näitasid jaanuarikuus võrreldes detsembriga lõpuks ometi stabiliseerumist. Eesti aja järgi kell 21.00 näidatakse turule ka Föderaalreservi viimase miitingu protkolli.
Kuid see siis kõik juba homme. Täna tuleb ilma majandusandmeteta hakkama saada.
Viimastel päevadel on räägitud ka ABK jagunemisest. Riskijanusemad võiksid kaaluda kauplemispositsiooni võtmist MBIAs (MBI). Kui lähipäevadel uudiseid ei tule, võivad kindlustajad tõesti downgrade'i saada, aga usun, et MBI ei lähe jagunemise teed ning suudab ka reitingut hoida. Pakun, et ka kolm viimast puhkepäeva on selle nimel kõva tööd tehtud, samuti pakuks MBIle tuge ABK võimalik jagunemine. Aga riskist siin puudust ei tule...
Briefingus täna väike kokkuvõte Barronsis ilmunud loole, mis AIG'd kiidab. Kokkuvõte ise selline:
Barron's reports the mark-to-market write-downs at American International Group (AIG), whatever their eventual size, are likely temporary. In fact, most if not all of these charges will be reversed back into AIG earnings over the next few years as the mortgage loans backing the CDOs pay down. The risk of actual loss is, in fact, quite contained. AIG certainly appears to be a value at its current trading level. This puts the stock at around 1.1x third-quarter book value per share. Merrill Lynch's Jay Cohen figures that even with all the announced write-downs, AIG's book value will be $46.87 a share by year-end 2008. At that level, the stock could sustain negative pretax mark-to-market hits of $48 bln and still trade at a reasonable 1.35x book value.
speedy, kindlasti see positiivset mõju avaldab, kuigi suurt uudisväärtust sellel enam pole. Pikaajaliselt valmistab hoopis rohkem rõõmu, et tarbija ei pea kartma enam valede valikute pärast ning võib julgemalt kõrglahutusega filme, aga ka DVD-mängijaid osta.
Ostjaid võib üsna närvi ajada, kui peale rõõmsat shoppamist aru saadi, et Toshiba suure allahindlusega müüdud mängijad olid moraalselt juba vananenud ning poole aasta möödudes ei valmistata formaadi jaoks enam ühtegi filmi.
mehve, tõusule jah. Usun, et MBI reitngut ei alandata ja mingi lahendus (vähemalt lühiajaliselt positiivne) saabub selle nädala jooksul. Samas võtavad sündmused uusi pöördeid tundidega nagu ABK arengud näitavad, seega ebamäärasus väljendub kõrges riskis.
Deutsche Bank upgrades Fritish American Tobacco (BTI 71.53) to Buy from Hold
Kuigi selline ettevõte (justkui Fritsude ja Ameeriklaste Tubakakompanii) on mulle tundmatu :), siis DB ostusoovitus enne tulemusi on positiivne märk tubakatööstuse heast käekäigust ja seda eriti arenevates riikides. BTI peaks veebruari lõpus avaldama tugevad tulemused ning loodetavasti ei tule need seekord Nigeeria noorte ega Põhja-Korea turu arvelt.
mehve, kuigi pole seda siin eriti reklaaminud, siis vähemalt foorumiideid enda jaoks pigem optsioonide vormis mõtlengi. Reeglina ei ole see taust oluline, seepärast pole seda maininud, samas teinekord (nt. ka tänase MBI puhul tegelikult) võiks selle teadmine kasulik olla. Seetõttu saabki vahel agressiivsemat stiili lubada.
Bill Gates says Microsoft isn't raising Yahoo bid - Reuters
Reuters reports MSFT is not privately haggling with Yahoo over the software maker's rejected $31-per-share buyout offer for the slumping Internet pioneer, Bill Gates said in an interview. "We sent them a letter and said we think that's a fair offer. There's nothing that's gone on other than us stating that we think it's a fair offer," the Microsoft chairman said Monday. "They should take a hard look at it."
Täna avaldas tulemused ka Wal-Mart (WMT), mille aktsiapõhine kasum oli $0.02 võrra konsensuse oodatust suurem ning tulenes paljuski rahvusvahelise müügi tugevusest. USA tarbijad aga on hakanud otsima odavamaid võimalusi ning ostukorvis on suurenenud toidu ja esmatarbekaupade osakaal. Kes veel mäletab, siis ka jaanurimüük näitas, et tarbijal on vesi ahjus - oluline osa jõuludeks saadud kinkekaartidest lunastati toiduosakonnas.
Tarbija on hakanud raha lugema ning liigub Wal-Marti sugustesse odavamatesse poodidesse, seega võib esimeks kvartaliks antud ootustele vastavat prognoosi ($0.70-$0.74 vs $0.74) hea tahtmise korral tõlgendada ka turuosa võitmisena. Kuigi konsensuse ootused on samuti alla liikunud, siis mõne kallima keti puhul ehk liialt vähe.
Ettevõte andis ka 2009. aasta prognoosi, kuid see jäi ootustele alla - $3.30-$3.43 vs $3.44.
Vastukaaluks Bairdi downgradele ja jätkuks speedy postile:
BWS Financial aggressive buyers of SIGM shares ahead of the co reporting fourth fiscal quarter results; Toshiba announcement positive.
BWS Financial says that Toshiba made it official this morning that they would stop manufacturing HDDVD players. There was news on Friday the co would halt its support for HDDVD. The dominating industry support for blu-ray made it difficult for the co to continue the format war. Toshiba bowing out of HDDVD makes blu-ray the choice for high definition DVD, and puts Sigma Designs (SIGM) in a position to benefit from the move. The next catalyst for blu-ray would be the exclusive HDVD studios to adopt blu-ray. Firm would be aggressive buyers of SIGM shares ahead of the Company reporting fourth fiscal quarter results. The momentum in IPTV set-top demand has not lightened up, and the blu-ray format win should provide for upside to the numbers from SIGM.
Is This the Bottom? By Rev Shark RealMoney.com Contributor 2/19/2008 8:48 AM EST
Socialism is a philosophy of failure, the creed of ignorance, and the gospel of envy, its inherent virtue is the equal sharing of misery. -- Winston Churchill
Nationalization of the troubled Northern Rock Bank by the government of the U.K. is helping to spark a rally this morning. The misery of the bank's deposits will now be shared by taxpayers throughout the U.K., and apparently that is a good thing as far as investors are concerned.
While the market is celebrating this bailout, the write-offs of bad debt by major firms continue to grow. This morning, Credit Suisse (CS) and Lehman (LEH) are the latest to confess that they still have more losses to declare. The market is still struggling to discount the ultimate cost of the credit crunch, and worries are growing that it is spreading into other areas, such as commercial mortgages.
Nonetheless, the market starts the week in somewhat oversold conditions and with so much pessimism in the air that it won't take much news to spark a rally. The overall news flow has some positives, such as the earnings report form Wal-Mart (WMT) and higher metals and oil prices.
The big question we have to contemplate at this point is whether the market is finally pricing in the worst and putting in a bottom, or whether this is just another bear-market spike that will quickly dash hopes.
There certainly are many folks who are anxious to declare that the market has bottomed and is ready to start a steady upward move. That may indeed be the case, but there is no real proof that the worst is over. Stocks have not shown that they can be trusted at this point, and trusting in some strength to start the week is particularly dangerous.
One fascinating thing about the thinking on Wall Street is that many traders shrug off and minimize the losses that occur by buying too early but are overwhelmed with distress should they be a bit late in buying a market in the early stages of recovery.
Since traditional Wall Street has a great bias toward averaging down into weakness, traders are very quick to celebrate every time we have a countertrend bounce within a downtrend. The fact that they were buying too early suddenly doesn't feel so bad, and their celebratory mood causes the underinvested on the sidelines to hurry and get some exposure so that they won't be left out of the glorious rally that is now being anticipated.
We have a bounce within the downtrend kicking in this morning. Whether it becomes the beginning of the end of the downtrend, we will have to wait and see, but there is no reason to play this as anything other than a short-term bounce. ------------------------------ Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: AKNS +5.7%, HOC +5.3%, MSO +4.4%, MHS +3.3%, GIS +2.9%, FOSL +2.8%, SHOO +1.6%, RTI +1.4%, KALU +1.3%, WMT +1.1%... Select European financials trading higher: LYG +9.1%, ING +8.9%, BCS +8.4% (ups write-down to $3.1 bln but reported profits broadly in line with analysts' expectations), HBC +3.5%... Select Chinese names trading higher following Bank of China surging 7.8% (and Heng Seng closing +1.5%) after its chairman said it had set aside enough provisions to cover its exposure to subprime credit: CEO +4.1%, ACH +4.1%, LFC +3.0%, SEED +2.2%, PTR +1.9%, JRJC +1.8%, BIDU +1.5%, CHL +1.3%... Other news: BHP +4.3% and RTP + 4.2% (still checking), QDEL +3.7% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), ARRS +3.5% (announces a $100 mln stock repurchase program), TOT +3.4% (still checking), FSLR +3.0% (up in sympahty with AKNS), SNY +2.0% (Sanofi-Aventis and UCB announce the FDA approves oral solution for the relief of seasonal and year round allergies and chronic Idiopathic Urticaria)... Analyst upgrades: ENCY +29.4% (upgraded to Buy at Collins Stewart), RIO +5.8% (upgraded to Overweight at Morgan Stanley), GFI +4.8% (upgraded to Overweight at HSBC), HANS +4.7% (upgraded to Overweight at JPMorgan), MU +4.6% (upgraded to Overweight at Thomas Weisel), GSX +4.5% (upgraded to Overweight at JPMorgan), LDK +4.5% (upgraded to Neutral at tier 1 firm), NICE +3.5% (upgraded to Buy at UBS), FBTX +3.3% (upgraded to Mkt Perform at Keefe Bruyette), B +2.9% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at BB&T), X +2.9% (upgraded to Buy at UBS), IAG +2.2% (upgraded to Neutral at HSBC), DROOY +1.7% (upgraded to Neutral at HSBC), UNH +1.3% (upgraded to Outperform at BMO Capital), WYE +1.0% (upgraded to Overweight at Morgan Stanley).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to weak earnings/guidance: ONXX -20.0%, UTHR -5.9%, MPEL -3.8%, CSG -3.5%, GPC -3.2%, ALCO -2.2%, GTXI -1.0%... Other news: TONE -16.7% (CSE announces that it will continue to evaluate its merger transaction with TierOne), ALJ -15.0% (shut its Big Spring, Texas refinery due to an explosion), GIVN -12.9% (receives 'not substantially equivalent' letter from FDA regarding application to market PillCam COLON in U.S.), TMS -9.7% (continued weakness from last weeks decline)... Analyst downgrades: SIGM -3.7% (downgraded to Neutral at Baird), UBS -1.2% (downgraded to Peer Perform at Bear Sterns), FTI -1.0% (downgraded to Neutral at JPMorgan).