Volatiilsus on viimasel ajal järgi andnud ning turud näidanud stabiilsemaid liikumisi, kuid sellele vaatamata jätkab raha turvalisemate sektorite otsimist, kui eile olid USA-s suuremat plussi näitamas eelkõige just telekomiettevõtted, kommunaalteenuste pakkujad ja esmatarbekaupade müüjad. Verizon kallines +2,1%, Target +2,3%, Coca-Cola +1,6%. Raha ligimeelitamist jätkas ka USA valitsuse võlakirjaturg, kui 10 aastase tulusus liikus 2,22% pealt 2,17%, jäädes suhtelise ükskõikseks kahe Fedi liikme kriitiliste sõnavõttude suhtes. Nii Charles Plosser kui Richard Fischer arvavad, et keskpank ei peaks tuginema rahapoliitika koordineerimisel sellele, mida arvab või vajavad aktsiaturud. Nende meelest ei ole õige jätta intressimäärad praegusele tasemele veel kaheks aastaks, kuna USA majandus ei pruugi olla nii nõrgas seisus nagu hetkel arvatakse, tingides vajaduse tõsta intressimäärasid lubatust varem. Pikemat kokkuvõtet võib lugeda Bloombergi vahendusel.
Tänase makro puhul on pilgud suunatud USA poole, kui kell 15.30 avaldatakse juulikuu tarbijahinnaindeks (oodatust kõrgem näit piiraks FEDi võimalusi rakendada intensiivsemat majanduse stimuleerimist) ja möödunud nädala töötuabiraha taotluste suurusjärk. Kell 17.00 raporteeritakse juuli olemasolevate majade müük, juhtivate indikaatorite indeks ja Philadelphia Fedi küsitlus.
USA indeksite futuurid kauplevad hetkel -0,8% punases, Euroopa on avanemas ca 1,3% miinuspoolel.
Täpsustus, teemana mõeldud ilmselt börsipäeva 18. august ...
Tänseni meenutatakse EKP sammu 2008.a suvel, kui nõrgeneva makro valguses otsustati tõsta intressimäärasid, kuna 147 dollarini jõudnud nafta oli aidanud inflatsioonil jõuda eurotsoonis 4% juurde. Kas ka tänavu on intressimäärade tõstmisega liialt kiirustatud? The Economist: Especially crummy bank
Hearing S&P comments France's AAA rating is stable
Analüüsimajad on jätkamas SKT ootuste kärpimist, kui täna otsustas oma prognoose arenevate kui ka arenenud riikide osas langetada Morgan Stanley.
We cut our global GDP growth forecasts by a combined full percentage point in 2011/12, to 3.9%
from 4.2% in 2011, and to 3.8% from 4.5% in 2012. We now see growth in the DM economies
averaging only 1.5% this year and next (down from 1.9% and 2.4%). While we had been calling
for a BBB recovery in DM all along, the path now looks even more Bumpy, Below-par and Brittle
than previously thought. Neither is EM immune. We now see EM growth decelerating from 7.8%
in 2010 to 6.4% (down from 6.6%) this year, and further to 6.1% (6.7%) in 2012. Given its 50%
(PPP) weight in global GDP, EM generates 80% of global GDP growth. EM policy-makers are
likely to cushion domestic growth, but drastic policy stimulus remains unlikely.
Recession not our base case: Our revised forecasts show the US and the euro area hovering
dangerously close to recession – defined as 2 consecutive quarters of contraction – over the next
6-12 months. Still, recession is not our base case because: the corporate sector looks healthy;
household real incomes will be supported by lower headline inflation; and we expect more action
from the Fed and the ECB, including rate cuts and more non-standard easing. The main reasons
for our growth downgrade, apart from disappointing incoming data, are recent policy errors in the
US and Europe plus the prospect of further fiscal tightening in 2012. A negative feedback loop
between weak growth and soggy asset markets now appears to be in the making.
We cut our global GDP growth forecasts by a combined full percentage point in 2011/12, to 3.9%
from 4.2% in 2011, and to 3.8% from 4.5% in 2012. We now see growth in the DM economies
averaging only 1.5% this year and next (down from 1.9% and 2.4%). While we had been calling
for a BBB recovery in DM all along, the path now looks even more Bumpy, Below-par and Brittle
than previously thought. Neither is EM immune. We now see EM growth decelerating from 7.8%
in 2010 to 6.4% (down from 6.6%) this year, and further to 6.1% (6.7%) in 2012. Given its 50%
(PPP) weight in global GDP, EM generates 80% of global GDP growth. EM policy-makers are
likely to cushion domestic growth, but drastic policy stimulus remains unlikely.
Recession not our base case: Our revised forecasts show the US and the euro area hovering
dangerously close to recession – defined as 2 consecutive quarters of contraction – over the next
6-12 months. Still, recession is not our base case because: the corporate sector looks healthy;
household real incomes will be supported by lower headline inflation; and we expect more action
from the Fed and the ECB, including rate cuts and more non-standard easing. The main reasons
for our growth downgrade, apart from disappointing incoming data, are recent policy errors in the
US and Europe plus the prospect of further fiscal tightening in 2012. A negative feedback loop
between weak growth and soggy asset markets now appears to be in the making.
Eurotsooni järgmise aasta kasvu kärbib Morgan Stanley 1,2% pealt 0,5% peale, samal ajal kui Deutsche tõi eile oma ootuse 1,7% pealt 0,8%-le. Septembri kohtumisel peaks värskete prognoosidega välja tulema ka EKP. Hetkel oodatakse 2012 kasvu üsna laias vahemikus 0,6%-2,8%.
MS: We are now further below the consensus, which still sits at 1.5% for 2012. Instead of the
euro area growing at a stall-speed of around 1% over the winter, we now expect stagnating
economic activity. While not our base case at this stage, we see a material risk of outright
recession. Against this dire growth backdrop, we no longer expect the ECB to hike rates, but,
rather, to cut rates next year – we lower our refi rate forecast for the end of 2012 to 1% from 2%
before. As the growth scare takes hold, we expect 10Y Bund yields heading towards 2% and see
scope for yield curve flattening. On the equity side, our strategists stay cautious and are underweight cyclicals. Our FX team sees the EUR falling to 1.36 vs. the USD at year-end.
MS: We are now further below the consensus, which still sits at 1.5% for 2012. Instead of the
euro area growing at a stall-speed of around 1% over the winter, we now expect stagnating
economic activity. While not our base case at this stage, we see a material risk of outright
recession. Against this dire growth backdrop, we no longer expect the ECB to hike rates, but,
rather, to cut rates next year – we lower our refi rate forecast for the end of 2012 to 1% from 2%
before. As the growth scare takes hold, we expect 10Y Bund yields heading towards 2% and see
scope for yield curve flattening. On the equity side, our strategists stay cautious and are underweight cyclicals. Our FX team sees the EUR falling to 1.36 vs. the USD at year-end.
Deutsche Bank'i vahendusel värskem kokkuvõte sellest, kuidas on tulemustehooaeg jätkunud nii Eurooopas kui USAs. Üldiselt tundub, et trend on jätkuvalt sama....USA ettevõtted on suutnud nii EPSI kui käibe osas näidata paremat ootuste ületamise protsenti võrreldes Euroopa firmadega.
Eurotsooni juunikuu ehitusmahud -1,8% vs +0,1% maikuus (M/M) ja aastases lõikes -11,3% vs +0,0% eelmisel kuul. Euro on sattunud surve alla, kaubeldes päeva põhjades $1,4377 taseme juures (-0,32%).
Täna avaldatud Suurbritannia juulikuu jaemüük (ilma autode ja kütuseta) vähenes aastataguse perioodiga võrreldes -0,2%, jäädes alla analüütikute prognoositud 0,1%lisele kasvule. Koos kütuse ja autodega oli muutus 0% vs oodatud +0,3%.
Saksamaa SKP neg. üllatuse tasakaalustamiseks sealt pisut positiivsemat makrot ka:
3:06 AM German Q2 employment +553K Y/Y, or +1.4%, to 41M, the highest level of employment in any Q2 since German unification. Q/Q employment +449K, or +1.1%
3:06 AM German Q2 employment +553K Y/Y, or +1.4%, to 41M, the highest level of employment in any Q2 since German unification. Q/Q employment +449K, or +1.1%
Gapping up
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: QIHU +9.7%, CACI +6.7%, PERY +6.4%, (ticking higher), HOTT +6.2%, (light volume), SNPS +4.5%, SINA +2%, .
M&A news: WFM +1.1% (speculation that KKR, Bain Capital are interested in a cash offer at a notable premium).
Select gold related stocks trading higher: AUY +2.0%, KGC +2.0%, HMY +0.8%, GG +0.8%, ABX +0.5%.
Other news: PMI +25.6% (ticking higher, still checking), CNX +6.1% (CONSOL Energy and Noble Energy enter into a joint venture for CONSOL's Marcellus Shale acreage; CONSOL Energy to receive aggregate payments of $3.4 bln), EW +0.8% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney).
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: QIHU +9.7%, CACI +6.7%, PERY +6.4%, (ticking higher), HOTT +6.2%, (light volume), SNPS +4.5%, SINA +2%, .
M&A news: WFM +1.1% (speculation that KKR, Bain Capital are interested in a cash offer at a notable premium).
Select gold related stocks trading higher: AUY +2.0%, KGC +2.0%, HMY +0.8%, GG +0.8%, ABX +0.5%.
Other news: PMI +25.6% (ticking higher, still checking), CNX +6.1% (CONSOL Energy and Noble Energy enter into a joint venture for CONSOL's Marcellus Shale acreage; CONSOL Energy to receive aggregate payments of $3.4 bln), EW +0.8% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney).
Inflatsioon oodatust kiirem, sellega FEDi käed rohkem seotud. Lisaks claims tagasi üle 400K
July CPI Y/Y +3.6%; Core CPI Y/Y +1.8%
July Core CPI M/M +0.2% vs +0.2% Briefing.com consensus
July CPI M/M +0.5% vs +0.2% Briefing.com consensus
Initial Claims 408K vs 400K Briefing.com consensus; Prior revised to 399K from 395K
Continuing Claims rises to 3.702 mln from 3.695 mln
July CPI Y/Y +3.6%; Core CPI Y/Y +1.8%
July Core CPI M/M +0.2% vs +0.2% Briefing.com consensus
July CPI M/M +0.5% vs +0.2% Briefing.com consensus
Initial Claims 408K vs 400K Briefing.com consensus; Prior revised to 399K from 395K
Continuing Claims rises to 3.702 mln from 3.695 mln
Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: NTAP -12.5% (also Executive Vice President and CFO Steve Gomo to Retire, downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at William Blair), JASO -11.2%, IRF -6.3% (light volume), GME -4.0%, DLTR -3.7%, JDSU -2.1%, LTD -1%.
Select financial related names under pressure: LYG -7.9%, BCS -7.7%, UBS -5.3%, ING -5.1%, CS -4.3%, STD -3%, HBC -2.9%, DB -2.1%.
Select metals/mining stocks trading lower: MT -3.7%, BHP -3.5%, BBL -3.5%, RIO -3.4%.
Select oil/gas related names showing early weakness: SD -5.2%, WLT -4.8%, SDRL -4.1%, STO -2.7%, E -2.7%, TOT -1.8%, RDS.A -1.7%, BP -1.5%.
Other news: GENT -20% (withdraws new drug application for Defibrotide), MGM -11.1% (Tracinda discloses 22.8% stake in amended 13D filing, down from 26.8% previously reported on 4/20), CBOU -8.1% (announces pricing of common stock offering by selling shareholder), AMRN -7.7% (still checking), IVR -6.7% (to make a public offering of 20,000,000 shares of its common stock, downgraded to Hold at Wunderlich), PLAB -6.1% (pulling back from yesterday's earnings boost), AVB -5.5% (to offer 4.75 mln shares of common stock issued under an existing shelf registration statement), RVBD -4.6% (Silver Peak sues Riverbed for patent infringement).
Analyst comments: GT -2.5% (downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Goldman), TRW -1.8% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman), HON -1.4% (downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Bernstein).
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: NTAP -12.5% (also Executive Vice President and CFO Steve Gomo to Retire, downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at William Blair), JASO -11.2%, IRF -6.3% (light volume), GME -4.0%, DLTR -3.7%, JDSU -2.1%, LTD -1%.
Select financial related names under pressure: LYG -7.9%, BCS -7.7%, UBS -5.3%, ING -5.1%, CS -4.3%, STD -3%, HBC -2.9%, DB -2.1%.
Select metals/mining stocks trading lower: MT -3.7%, BHP -3.5%, BBL -3.5%, RIO -3.4%.
Select oil/gas related names showing early weakness: SD -5.2%, WLT -4.8%, SDRL -4.1%, STO -2.7%, E -2.7%, TOT -1.8%, RDS.A -1.7%, BP -1.5%.
Other news: GENT -20% (withdraws new drug application for Defibrotide), MGM -11.1% (Tracinda discloses 22.8% stake in amended 13D filing, down from 26.8% previously reported on 4/20), CBOU -8.1% (announces pricing of common stock offering by selling shareholder), AMRN -7.7% (still checking), IVR -6.7% (to make a public offering of 20,000,000 shares of its common stock, downgraded to Hold at Wunderlich), PLAB -6.1% (pulling back from yesterday's earnings boost), AVB -5.5% (to offer 4.75 mln shares of common stock issued under an existing shelf registration statement), RVBD -4.6% (Silver Peak sues Riverbed for patent infringement).
Analyst comments: GT -2.5% (downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Goldman), TRW -1.8% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman), HON -1.4% (downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Bernstein).
FED jälgib hoolega USAs tegutsevate Euroopa pankade tegevust. Föderaalreservi teeb murelikuks asjaolu, et euroala võlakriisi tõttu võib tekkida olukord, kus USA-s tegutsevad Euroopa pangad ei suuda finantseerida laenutegevust ja täita endale võetud kohustusi. Vahendab WSJ
Kuld tänase päevaga rallinud 1,57% ja kaupleb hetkel kõigi aegade rekordtasemel $1819 untsist.
August Philadelphia Fed -30.7 vs 1.0 Briefing.com consensus; July 3.20
July Existing Home Sales 4.67 mln vs 4.87 mln Briefing.com consensus; June revised to 4.84 mln from 4.81 mln
July Leading Indicators +0.5% vs +0.2% Briefing.com consensus
July Existing Home Sales 4.67 mln vs 4.87 mln Briefing.com consensus; June revised to 4.84 mln from 4.81 mln
July Leading Indicators +0.5% vs +0.2% Briefing.com consensus
Hoolimata sellest, et USA ei oma enam Standard & Poorsilt AAA krediidireitingut, käitub riigivõlg endiselt safe-haven'ina. 10-aastase riigivõlakirja tulusus langenud 1,99% tasemele.
Philadelphia Fedi küsitluse puhul viitab just jooksev hinnang ajaloolise info põhjal, et uuele majandussurutisele ollakse lähedal.
HPQ halted!
HPQ halted jälle