Erakordne volatiilsus Euroopa turgudel … näiteks Prantsuse turg +1,50% → -80% → +0,15%
HBOS -42%
Tohoh...kuidas aeg ikka lendab...
Lloyds TSB is is in advanced merger talks with HBOS to create a giant UK super retail bank, the BBC has learned. The deal, which would create a retail banking giant would end the uncertainty about the strength of HBOS following the calamitous run on its shares. Under the deal, the valuation of HBOS shares would be closer to its closing price last week of 300 pence rather than its current level of around 100p.
lahe, HBOS käis -40% ära ja taastus -10% peale, turg on nii närviline, et suvaline spekulatsioon võib suurtes aktsiates selliseid liikumisi põhjustada
Ja isegi nii närviline, et ei pane tähele mis kuupäevaga börsipäev on:)
Oktoobrist sai nüüd taas september :)
AIG eelturu $4 juures kauplemine tundub väga kummaline. Ettevõte päästeti ära, aga tehakse mõnus dilution (80% stake FED-le). Praegu turg põhimõtteliselt ütleb, et kui see $85B laen oleks tulnud erasektorist ilma dilutionita, siis aktsia oleks väärt $20!? Täielik naerukoht. Varade tõenäoline mahakirjutamine jmt probleemid jäävad ikka alles. Ei näe nagu mingit põhjust, miks aktsia üle paari dollari maksma peaks.
(Olen hommikul AIG-d shortinud paaris osas, avg $3.88).
(Olen hommikul AIG-d shortinud paaris osas, avg $3.88).
Aknast välja vaadates on eestis terve see aasta olnud üks imeline oktoober, samas kahju, et lhv jälle tänase päeva septembiks muutis, muidu oleks ju olnud hea vaadata, et mis siis ikkagi toimus turgudel 17-19 sept 2008:) ja vastavalt sellel käitunud:(!
Unustasin lisada, et UBS cuttis eilsete sündmuste järel AIG targeti $26->$5, maintains buy.
upser,
ja Ansip teeb kõik selleks, et see oktoober (ja miks mitte november-detsember) jääks meile (majandusele/rahvale) püsima järgnevateks aastateks :)
ja Ansip teeb kõik selleks, et see oktoober (ja miks mitte november-detsember) jääks meile (majandusele/rahvale) püsima järgnevateks aastateks :)
AIG kisub vastikuks squeeze'iks, natuke jäi orderist puudu enne, kui alla $2.90 kauples. Loodan kuni 7AM vastu pidada, siis peaks müüjad välja tulema.
Ah, ei viitsi võimelda nii palju, 1/2 AIG positsioonist kinni @$3.00.
Teine pool AIG positsioonist kinni @$2.63. Shorti võttes panin ostuorderid 2.62 ja 2.12, nii et tootlus jäi plaanitust väiksemaks, aga asi seegi. Ühtlasi monoloogi lõpp, oktoobri-ilmade üle ei viitsi diskuteerida börsipäeva foorumis :) Kui kellelgi mõni huvitav treidiidee, siis loeks huviga.
Citi AIG kohta:
Morning Trading Color — We are lowering our TP to 1x current tangible book, or
$4.50 per share. Our rating remains unchanged a 2S. We would expect shares to
rally up through yesterday's close and perhaps beyond due to short covering.
However, given the low ROE characteristics of the stock, we do not expect that it
can hold a value above BVPS beyond technical trading pressures.
Võib töötada, aga isiklikult ma ainult sellepärast küll aktsiat ostma ei lähe, et vb tuleb short squeeze.
Morning Trading Color — We are lowering our TP to 1x current tangible book, or
$4.50 per share. Our rating remains unchanged a 2S. We would expect shares to
rally up through yesterday's close and perhaps beyond due to short covering.
However, given the low ROE characteristics of the stock, we do not expect that it
can hold a value above BVPS beyond technical trading pressures.
Võib töötada, aga isiklikult ma ainult sellepärast küll aktsiat ostma ei lähe, et vb tuleb short squeeze.
Okei, üks treid veel. Short SNDK@22.64.
After SanDisk rejected Samsung's takeover bid, Oppenheimer recommends selling SanDisk on strength, since hostile takeovers in the semiconductor sector are rare and the firm thinks that such takeovers can be difficult to complete.
Eile õhtul käis küll kõlakas, et Samsung on valmis pakkuma praeguse $26 asemel isegi rohkem kui $28.75. Lazard arvab, et Toshiba võib konkureeriva pakkumisega tulla. Seetõttu võtsin väga väikse koguse, võimalik kõrgem offer ja hullumeelselt shorditud stock, mis võib kergesti squeeze'ida. SanDisk ise arvab, et aktsia õiglane väärtus on $64, mis on juba science fiction.
After SanDisk rejected Samsung's takeover bid, Oppenheimer recommends selling SanDisk on strength, since hostile takeovers in the semiconductor sector are rare and the firm thinks that such takeovers can be difficult to complete.
Eile õhtul käis küll kõlakas, et Samsung on valmis pakkuma praeguse $26 asemel isegi rohkem kui $28.75. Lazard arvab, et Toshiba võib konkureeriva pakkumisega tulla. Seetõttu võtsin väga väikse koguse, võimalik kõrgem offer ja hullumeelselt shorditud stock, mis võib kergesti squeeze'ida. SanDisk ise arvab, et aktsia õiglane väärtus on $64, mis on juba science fiction.
USA aktsiaturud alustavad tänast börsipäeva (taas) 2% madalamalt. Volatiilsus jätkub.
Saksamaa DAX +0.04%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 +0.73%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 +0.62%
Hispaania IBEX 35 +0.50%
Venemaa MICEX -3.09%
Poola WIG -0.33%
Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 +1.21%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng -3.63%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) -2.88%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) -7.51%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq +3.64%
Tai Set 50 -3.60%
India Sensex -1.89%
Tepid Response to AIG News Is a Good Thing
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
9/17/2008 8:34 AM EDT
After the ship has sunk, everyone knows how she might have been saved.
-- Italian proverb
The bailout of AIG (AIG) that many were hoping for has now occurred, but the market isn't doing much celebrating.
After the Bear Stearns bailout, the market enjoyed a very strong multiday bounce before it failed. After the Fannie (FNM) and Freddie (FRE) bailout, the market had a huge one-day bounce that then failed badly the next day. This time, it doesn't look like the bailout is going to prompt any bounce at all.
The obvious conclusion is that market players now realize that government bailouts are just a bandage that is not going to cure the much deeper, systemic problems that are causing the need for bailouts in the first place.
I'm going to leave it to others to whine and complain about what the government should be doing. I think it's fairly clear that these bailouts are just prolonging the situation. The good news is that the market's hesitancy to rush in and buy this morning is a sign that maybe we can discount the problems and get to a bottom faster.
I've been quite bearish about the market for quite a while, but I am starting to see a glimmer in hope that a better market may lie ahead. Market bottoms are made from despair and a lack of hope. We need market players to get sick and tired of the poor action. It isn't panic, but disgust that will get us to a good low, and with the tepid response to the AIG solution, there is going to be lots of disgust out there.
I can see a scenario where we have a decent end-of-the-year rally, especially if we continue to wallow in misery for a while at this point. For now, we simply have to continue to respect the fact that we are in an ugly downtrend and there is no market leadership.
There is trading to be found playing bounces when we have bouts of panic-selling, but forget building positions. It is too early to trust our precious capital to hope that a turn is coming.
Frankly, I'm happy to see that the market isn't celebrating the AIG bailout. That is the sort of action that is going to help produce a better market much quicker. There might be more pain in the meanwhile, but if we are positioned correctly, so what?
-----------------------------
Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: ADBE +3.6%, DRI +1.5%... M&A news: SNDK +51.3% (receives $26 bid from Samsung; co's unanimously rejects Samsung's unsolicited proposal)... Select European financials showing strength: LYG +9.7% (Lloyds TSB and HBOS in merger talks: Source - Reuters), BCS +5.4% (reaches $1.75 bln deal for a Lehman unit - NY Times), AXA +3.3%... Other news: XIN +18.1% (still checking), ABK +8.0% (confirms limited direct exposure to Lehman Brothers Holdings and its subsidiaries), HOKU +7.4% (Tianwei commits to additional $227 mln of polysilicon from Hoku; also upgraded to Buy at Broadpoint), MU +5.0% (up in sympathy with SNDK), SOL +2.8% (still checking)... Analyst comments: ESLR +5.6% (upgraded to Hold at Citigroup), ACLS +5.3% (upgraded to Buy at Citigroup), NLY +1.6% (upgraded to Overweight at JPMorgan), AA +1.5% (upgraded to Buy at Soleil).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: VSE -23.4% (also announces that it has commenced a 20 mln share common stock offering; downgraded to Perform at Oppenheimer), NT -17.0%, MS -14.5%, POL -9.1%... Select financial stocks showing continued weakness: AIG -43.2% (Fed to give AIG $85 bln loan and take 80% stake), IRE -11.2%, RBS -6.8%, KEY -6.8%, FITB -5.5%, GS -5.5%, MER -5.3%, WB -4.9%, C -3.2%, BAC -2.9%, CIT -2.6%, HBC -2.3%, JPM -2.2%... Select China names trading lower after the Shanghai Composite ended -2.9% to a new 22-month closing low and the Hang Seng closed -3.6%: ACH -9.3%, PTR -8.3%, CEO -7.9%, CHA -7.2%, ZNH -5.9%, SNP -5.8%... Other news: COIN -6.4% (announces redemption of Class A Warrants), NOK -3.1% (still checking), GILD -2.7% (receives complete response letter from U.S. Food and Drug Administration for Aztreonam Lysine for Inhalation, an investigational treatment for cystic Fibrosis)... Analyst comments: ZION -2.8% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Stifel Nicolaus), CME -2.4% (downgraded to Market Perform at Keefe Bruyette), BBT -2.0% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Citigroup).
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
9/17/2008 8:34 AM EDT
After the ship has sunk, everyone knows how she might have been saved.
-- Italian proverb
The bailout of AIG (AIG) that many were hoping for has now occurred, but the market isn't doing much celebrating.
After the Bear Stearns bailout, the market enjoyed a very strong multiday bounce before it failed. After the Fannie (FNM) and Freddie (FRE) bailout, the market had a huge one-day bounce that then failed badly the next day. This time, it doesn't look like the bailout is going to prompt any bounce at all.
The obvious conclusion is that market players now realize that government bailouts are just a bandage that is not going to cure the much deeper, systemic problems that are causing the need for bailouts in the first place.
I'm going to leave it to others to whine and complain about what the government should be doing. I think it's fairly clear that these bailouts are just prolonging the situation. The good news is that the market's hesitancy to rush in and buy this morning is a sign that maybe we can discount the problems and get to a bottom faster.
I've been quite bearish about the market for quite a while, but I am starting to see a glimmer in hope that a better market may lie ahead. Market bottoms are made from despair and a lack of hope. We need market players to get sick and tired of the poor action. It isn't panic, but disgust that will get us to a good low, and with the tepid response to the AIG solution, there is going to be lots of disgust out there.
I can see a scenario where we have a decent end-of-the-year rally, especially if we continue to wallow in misery for a while at this point. For now, we simply have to continue to respect the fact that we are in an ugly downtrend and there is no market leadership.
There is trading to be found playing bounces when we have bouts of panic-selling, but forget building positions. It is too early to trust our precious capital to hope that a turn is coming.
Frankly, I'm happy to see that the market isn't celebrating the AIG bailout. That is the sort of action that is going to help produce a better market much quicker. There might be more pain in the meanwhile, but if we are positioned correctly, so what?
-----------------------------
Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: ADBE +3.6%, DRI +1.5%... M&A news: SNDK +51.3% (receives $26 bid from Samsung; co's unanimously rejects Samsung's unsolicited proposal)... Select European financials showing strength: LYG +9.7% (Lloyds TSB and HBOS in merger talks: Source - Reuters), BCS +5.4% (reaches $1.75 bln deal for a Lehman unit - NY Times), AXA +3.3%... Other news: XIN +18.1% (still checking), ABK +8.0% (confirms limited direct exposure to Lehman Brothers Holdings and its subsidiaries), HOKU +7.4% (Tianwei commits to additional $227 mln of polysilicon from Hoku; also upgraded to Buy at Broadpoint), MU +5.0% (up in sympathy with SNDK), SOL +2.8% (still checking)... Analyst comments: ESLR +5.6% (upgraded to Hold at Citigroup), ACLS +5.3% (upgraded to Buy at Citigroup), NLY +1.6% (upgraded to Overweight at JPMorgan), AA +1.5% (upgraded to Buy at Soleil).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: VSE -23.4% (also announces that it has commenced a 20 mln share common stock offering; downgraded to Perform at Oppenheimer), NT -17.0%, MS -14.5%, POL -9.1%... Select financial stocks showing continued weakness: AIG -43.2% (Fed to give AIG $85 bln loan and take 80% stake), IRE -11.2%, RBS -6.8%, KEY -6.8%, FITB -5.5%, GS -5.5%, MER -5.3%, WB -4.9%, C -3.2%, BAC -2.9%, CIT -2.6%, HBC -2.3%, JPM -2.2%... Select China names trading lower after the Shanghai Composite ended -2.9% to a new 22-month closing low and the Hang Seng closed -3.6%: ACH -9.3%, PTR -8.3%, CEO -7.9%, CHA -7.2%, ZNH -5.9%, SNP -5.8%... Other news: COIN -6.4% (announces redemption of Class A Warrants), NOK -3.1% (still checking), GILD -2.7% (receives complete response letter from U.S. Food and Drug Administration for Aztreonam Lysine for Inhalation, an investigational treatment for cystic Fibrosis)... Analyst comments: ZION -2.8% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Stifel Nicolaus), CME -2.4% (downgraded to Market Perform at Keefe Bruyette), BBT -2.0% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Citigroup).
SNDK cover@21.22. Ei hakka tuvi püüdma selle treidiga :)
Hea treid SNDK-ga, Fun. Citi on samuti sarnaselt Opco-ga väljas negatiivse kommentaariga:
Stock Strategy – Post close SNDK shares popped to $22.93, closing 71% of the gap to the just-rejected $26 price. We expect choppy and range-bound trading in the near term, as short covering and hopes of a follow-on Samsung offer provide temporary lift. However, barring either a second or new offer, shares will then likely trade back toward fundamental support in the low-to-mid teens.
Stock Strategy – Post close SNDK shares popped to $22.93, closing 71% of the gap to the just-rejected $26 price. We expect choppy and range-bound trading in the near term, as short covering and hopes of a follow-on Samsung offer provide temporary lift. However, barring either a second or new offer, shares will then likely trade back toward fundamental support in the low-to-mid teens.
Short sale rule jälle jõus.
Long MS @ $24.4, üsna suurelt.
Long MS @ $24.4, üsna suurelt.