Tundub, et tulemustehooaeg algas sobival ajal. Aktsiad on alla müüdud ja viimsepäeva meeleolud sisse hinnatud. Eile turgude sulgemise järel tugevad tulemused avaldanud Google, IBM ja AMD näitasid aga, et äritegevus jätkub ka rasketel aegadel ning see pakub täna turule kõvasti tuge.
textbook case. Ja allaräägitud ootuste taustal tulevad (endiselt) suhtkoht OK Q3 tulemused. Hmm? "Parimal juhul stagnatsioon" või siis hoopis "nautige sõitu", Peeter?
Venemaa SIM-kaartide penetratsioon tõusis septembris 123.7%-ni. Kõige rohkem uusi kasutajaid lisas Vimpelcom (VIP), mis suutis kuubaasil kasvatada kasutajate arvu 2% võrra. Sama palju tõusis ka Megafoni kasutajabaas, MTS-i (MBT) kliendibaas täienes 0.7% võrra.
Ukrainas MTS kaotas kliente, kuid see oli tingitud agressiivsest esimese kvartali turundukampaaniast, mille järel paljud liitunud uuesti lahkusid.
SRÜ riikides suutsid mõlemad Venemaa suurimad telekomid kasutajabaasi suurendada, Vimpelcomi puhul väärivad mainimist olulised turud Kasahstan (+3.2% m-o-m) ja Usbekistan (+4.4% m-o-m) ning MTSi puhul samuti Usbekistan (+4.8% m-o-m).
Arvestades, et tegemist on klientide lisandumisega ühe kuu baasil, ei ole globaalse kriisi mõjud veel tunda andnud. Selles valguses on MTSi ja VIPi ohjeldamatu nii suur allamüük pigem emotsionaalset laadi.
Kõrval on Glitniri ülevaatest võetud tabel, kus riikide kaupa on telekomide kliendibaasi muutus täpselt välja toodud.
Täna tähistatakse ka rahvusvahelist vaesuse likvideerimise päeva :)) Nii on kalendris kirjas.
RTS hakkab avanemise plussi käest ära andma ... tehke oma pakkumised ... kas täna pannakse ka börs kinni? :)
kristjan, minu stagnatsiooni-steitment käis OMXT kohta. Ma lihtsalt ei suuda juba sügisest 07 Baltikumi suhtes oma ükskõiksust talitseda. Hoida telkut, saada dividendi ja tegeleda muude asjadega ja mitte neist turgudest end rohkem häirida lasta.
Päris (!) turgude suhtes on ka minu peamine tees hetkel, et kui "aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa, homme me kõik sureme-krediidikriis" ei olegi enam peamine teema ja on asendunud sellega, et "oioioioi, kui kõva retsessioon," siis ühel hetkel tuleb kellelegi ka meelde see, et majandus on tsükliline ning ka recession'ist tullakse ühel hetkel siiski välja. Back to the known paths of action.
Päris (!) turgude suhtes on ka minu peamine tees hetkel, et kui "aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa, homme me kõik sureme-krediidikriis" ei olegi enam peamine teema ja on asendunud sellega, et "oioioioi, kui kõva retsessioon," siis ühel hetkel tuleb kellelegi ka meelde see, et majandus on tsükliline ning ka recession'ist tullakse ühel hetkel siiski välja. Back to the known paths of action.
SunPower (SPWRA), üks juhtivaid päikesepaneelide tootjaid, on täna saamas negatiivseid kommentaare Citigroupi analüütikutelt. Aktsia reiting langetatakse "Müü" peale hinnasihiga $30. Sealjuures on sõnastus üsna agressiivne:
The Street is already negative on this sector (we highlighted ’09 supply shock back in May ’08), but this is a 100% stock-specific call. The bottom line here is that we think a big miss is coming in CQ1 as classic signs of inventory risk are developing in its components biz, while CQ4 should represent a multi-year peak in its margin structure.
Lisaks on kuuldavasti soovitust langetamas ka Merrill Lynch. Seega tasub SPWRA radaril hoida, sest pärast eilset tulemustejärgset 25%-list tõusu võib täna aktsias oodata korrektsiooni.
Ka GS langetas oma sihti $36 peale, kusjuures oktoobri alguses alustati SPWRA uuesti katmist hinnasihiga $43. MSi ja DB positiivsed kommentaarid (kuigi mõlemad langetasid ka hinnasihti) peaksid selle kõrval täna varju jääma.
Briefing vahendab NY Timesi artiklit, kus Buffett räägib, et kasutab praegust olukorda pikaajalise horisondiga USA aktsiate ostmiseks.
Warren Buffett writes op-ed piece in NY Times - He's buying US stocks
NY Times reports "the financial world is a mess, both in the United States and abroad. Its problems, moreover, have been leaking into the general economy, and the leaks are now turning into a gusher. In the near term, unemployment will rise, business activity will falter and headlines will continue to be scary. So ... I've been buying American stocks. This is my personal account I'm talking about, in which I previously owned nothing but United States government bonds. If prices keep looking attractive, my non-Berkshire net worth will soon be 100% in United States equities. Why? A simple rule dictates my buying: Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful. And most certainly, fear is now widespread, gripping even seasoned investors. To be sure, investors are right to be wary of highly leveraged entities or businesses in weak competitive positions. But fears regarding the long-term prosperity of the nation's many sound companies make no sense. These businesses will indeed suffer earnings hiccups, as they always have. But most major companies will be setting new profit records 5, 10 and 20 years from now. Let me be clear on one point: I can't predict the short-term movements of the stock market. I haven't the faintest idea as to whether stocks will be higher or lower a month — or a year — from now. What is likely, however, is that the market will move higher, perhaps substantially so, well before either sentiment or the economy turns up. So if you wait for the robins, spring will be over."
Warren Buffett writes op-ed piece in NY Times - He's buying US stocks
NY Times reports "the financial world is a mess, both in the United States and abroad. Its problems, moreover, have been leaking into the general economy, and the leaks are now turning into a gusher. In the near term, unemployment will rise, business activity will falter and headlines will continue to be scary. So ... I've been buying American stocks. This is my personal account I'm talking about, in which I previously owned nothing but United States government bonds. If prices keep looking attractive, my non-Berkshire net worth will soon be 100% in United States equities. Why? A simple rule dictates my buying: Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful. And most certainly, fear is now widespread, gripping even seasoned investors. To be sure, investors are right to be wary of highly leveraged entities or businesses in weak competitive positions. But fears regarding the long-term prosperity of the nation's many sound companies make no sense. These businesses will indeed suffer earnings hiccups, as they always have. But most major companies will be setting new profit records 5, 10 and 20 years from now. Let me be clear on one point: I can't predict the short-term movements of the stock market. I haven't the faintest idea as to whether stocks will be higher or lower a month — or a year — from now. What is likely, however, is that the market will move higher, perhaps substantially so, well before either sentiment or the economy turns up. So if you wait for the robins, spring will be over."
Head märgid:
Overnight Libor 1.67%, -0.27; 3-mo Libor 4.42%, -0.08; TED Spread 3.99%, -0.08
Overnight Libor 1.67%, -0.27; 3-mo Libor 4.42%, -0.08; TED Spread 3.99%, -0.08
Piper Jaffray kinnitab täna Green Mountaini (GMCR) ostusoovitust ning hinnasihti $48. Aktsiat ei tohiks see eriti mõjutada, sest kinnitatakse juba varem neli korda antud sihti.
http://www.kauppalehti.fi/5/i/talous/uutiset/etusivu/uutinen.jsp?oid=2008/10/15544
Lontoolainen sijoittaja Simon Cawkwell ansaitsi 320 000 euroa yhden tunnin aikana, kun pörssit panikoivat finanssikriisin vuoksi.
- Rakastan kriisejä, koska silloin ihmiset ovat tyhmiä, Cawkwell pistelee kanssaihmisiään.
- Olen aina pitänyt nopealiikkeisistä markkinoista, koska typerykset tekevät enemmän virheitä, ja sen vuoksi minä kykenen tekemään voittoja, hän leuhkii.
- Työskentelen sillä oletuksella, että olen fiksumpi kuin 99 ihmistä sadasta.
61-vuotiasta Cawkwellia kutsutaan "lyhyeksi myyjien kuninkaaksi". Lyhyeksi myyminen tarkoittaa sitä, että sijoittaja pyrkii hyötymään laskevista osakekursseista lainaamalla, myymällä ja ostamalla samoja osakkeita nopeaan tahtiin.
Lyhyeksi myynnin väitetään lisäävän osakemarkkinoiden heilahteluja.
Lontoolainen sijoittaja Simon Cawkwell ansaitsi 320 000 euroa yhden tunnin aikana, kun pörssit panikoivat finanssikriisin vuoksi.
- Rakastan kriisejä, koska silloin ihmiset ovat tyhmiä, Cawkwell pistelee kanssaihmisiään.
- Olen aina pitänyt nopealiikkeisistä markkinoista, koska typerykset tekevät enemmän virheitä, ja sen vuoksi minä kykenen tekemään voittoja, hän leuhkii.
- Työskentelen sillä oletuksella, että olen fiksumpi kuin 99 ihmistä sadasta.
61-vuotiasta Cawkwellia kutsutaan "lyhyeksi myyjien kuninkaaksi". Lyhyeksi myyminen tarkoittaa sitä, että sijoittaja pyrkii hyötymään laskevista osakekursseista lainaamalla, myymällä ja ostamalla samoja osakkeita nopeaan tahtiin.
Lyhyeksi myynnin väitetään lisäävän osakemarkkinoiden heilahteluja.
September Building Permits 786K vs 840K consensus
September Housing Starts 817K vs 872K consensus; prior revised to 872K from 895K
September Housing Starts 817K vs 872K consensus; prior revised to 872K from 895K
USA majanduslanguse kindlaim tõend .... After 17 consecutive monthly sales increases, Sept video game sales decline 6%
Saksamaa DAX +1.65%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 +1.89%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 +1.89%
Hispaania IBEX 35 +1.64%
Venemaa MICEX -5.32%
Poola WIG -7.11%
Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 +2.78%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng -4.44%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) +1.08%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) +0.92%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq -0.63%
Tai Set 50 -1.58%
India Sensex 30 -5.73%
Look to 1987 for the Cure to This Market
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
10/17/2008 8:32 AM EDT
The most intense conflicts, if overcome, leave behind a sense of security and calm that is not easily disturbed. It is just these intense conflicts and their conflagration which are needed to produce valuable and lasting results.
--Carl Jung, Swiss Psychiatrist
What this market badly needs at this point is less volatility and some calm trading. We have been swinging 3%, 4% or 5%, and more, a day, and market players who are brave enough to venture in see their fortunes change in a matter of hours if they don't move fast.
For market players to regain some confidence, they have to be able to venture into the market and not suffer huge whipsaws. While a 900-point gain is fantastic, it is impossible to be confident in making new buys if it's following by a 700-point drop and then a 400-point gain.
I've been complaining quite a bit lately that there simply aren't any good charts. They need some time to form some bases and to show that they have underlying support. What we need is for these big swings to set the parameters for a trading range that slowly narrows as volatility cools off. That would be ideal and would be very similar to what occurred following the Black Monday crash in 1987.
If you look at the chart from 1987, you will see that the pattern is somewhat similar to what is happening now. We had the huge point gain following the breathtaking drop, and then we gave back a big part of that gain before finally finding support.
What happened after that is the key. In 1987, we bounced back up, tested the recent highs and then we saw volatility slow and a trading range set up. Stocks moved much more slowly after that, dipped again in December and then began a very slow and mild uptrend.
We have a great model from 1987, and if we follow it, there will be some excellent opportunities, but the fundamental economic conditions we are facing at this time are quite a bit different. This market is badly confused over how bad the economy is going to get, as all these governmental measures are put in place to save us. Unemployment is very likely to spike up, and a recession is a certainty.
All we can do is let the market action be our guide. If 1987 is a guide, we are in good shape, and so far the pattern is looking fairly similar. We need to avoid another big negative day and have to hold above recent lows. The action Thursday is helpful in that regard, but market players are nervous again this morning, despite some good earnings report from the likes of Google (GOOG) and IBM (IBM) .
Good luck and go get 'em. None.
-----------------------------
Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: AMD +10.0%, GOOG +8.2%, CVBF +3.9% (light volume), IBM +1.9%, GILD +1.5%, SLB +1.1%... M&A news: UST +1.4% (Altria's proposed acquisition of UST Passes U.S. regulatory review)... Other news: BX +6.8% (still checking for anything specific), NDAQ +5.9% (will replace DDS in the S&P 500), ABK +5.3% (AMBAC Fincl, bond insurers to present Treasury with plan - Bloomberg.com), SNY +4.0% (still checking), CRK +2.5% (will replace ETM in the S&P MidCap 400), BIDU +2.5% (up in sympathy with GOOG)... Analyst comments: ESRX +1.4% (upgraded to Overweight from Market Weight at Thomas Weisel).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: ESLR -12.1% (also downgraded to Hold at Wedbush Morgan), LEG -11.1%, FHN -11.1%, SYK -3.2%, SONC -3.1% (light volume), TPX -1.3%, CMA -1.1%, ISRG -1.0%... Select financial related names trading lower: ING -24.2% (has record drop on speculation firm needs to raise capital - Bloomberg.com), AIG -9.9% (names David L. Herzog Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; also will be canceling more than 160 conferences and events following a meeting with NY AG), LYG -9.8%, IBN -9.6%, AXA -9.5%, BCS -8.2%, BAC -2.7%, GS -2.1%... Select metals/mining names showing weakness: MT -9.6% (considering 15% cut in global steel output; in response to weaker global steel demand - WSJ), RTP -7.7%, BHP -7.2%, BBL -6.7%, AEM -6.0%, AAUK -5.3%... Select oil/gas names trading lower: STO -5.2%, BP -4.9% (downgraded to Neutral at Goldman - DJ), TOT -3.8%... Other news: CGV -12.0% and SI -7.6% (still checking for anything specific), GE -2.1% (GATX drops bid for GE rail unit, according to sources - Reuters.com)... Analyst comments: SPWRA -5.9% (downgraded to Sell at Citigroup), FCX -2.3% (downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform at RBC Capital Mkts).
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
10/17/2008 8:32 AM EDT
The most intense conflicts, if overcome, leave behind a sense of security and calm that is not easily disturbed. It is just these intense conflicts and their conflagration which are needed to produce valuable and lasting results.
--Carl Jung, Swiss Psychiatrist
What this market badly needs at this point is less volatility and some calm trading. We have been swinging 3%, 4% or 5%, and more, a day, and market players who are brave enough to venture in see their fortunes change in a matter of hours if they don't move fast.
For market players to regain some confidence, they have to be able to venture into the market and not suffer huge whipsaws. While a 900-point gain is fantastic, it is impossible to be confident in making new buys if it's following by a 700-point drop and then a 400-point gain.
I've been complaining quite a bit lately that there simply aren't any good charts. They need some time to form some bases and to show that they have underlying support. What we need is for these big swings to set the parameters for a trading range that slowly narrows as volatility cools off. That would be ideal and would be very similar to what occurred following the Black Monday crash in 1987.
If you look at the chart from 1987, you will see that the pattern is somewhat similar to what is happening now. We had the huge point gain following the breathtaking drop, and then we gave back a big part of that gain before finally finding support.
What happened after that is the key. In 1987, we bounced back up, tested the recent highs and then we saw volatility slow and a trading range set up. Stocks moved much more slowly after that, dipped again in December and then began a very slow and mild uptrend.
We have a great model from 1987, and if we follow it, there will be some excellent opportunities, but the fundamental economic conditions we are facing at this time are quite a bit different. This market is badly confused over how bad the economy is going to get, as all these governmental measures are put in place to save us. Unemployment is very likely to spike up, and a recession is a certainty.
All we can do is let the market action be our guide. If 1987 is a guide, we are in good shape, and so far the pattern is looking fairly similar. We need to avoid another big negative day and have to hold above recent lows. The action Thursday is helpful in that regard, but market players are nervous again this morning, despite some good earnings report from the likes of Google (GOOG) and IBM (IBM) .
Good luck and go get 'em. None.
-----------------------------
Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: AMD +10.0%, GOOG +8.2%, CVBF +3.9% (light volume), IBM +1.9%, GILD +1.5%, SLB +1.1%... M&A news: UST +1.4% (Altria's proposed acquisition of UST Passes U.S. regulatory review)... Other news: BX +6.8% (still checking for anything specific), NDAQ +5.9% (will replace DDS in the S&P 500), ABK +5.3% (AMBAC Fincl, bond insurers to present Treasury with plan - Bloomberg.com), SNY +4.0% (still checking), CRK +2.5% (will replace ETM in the S&P MidCap 400), BIDU +2.5% (up in sympathy with GOOG)... Analyst comments: ESRX +1.4% (upgraded to Overweight from Market Weight at Thomas Weisel).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: ESLR -12.1% (also downgraded to Hold at Wedbush Morgan), LEG -11.1%, FHN -11.1%, SYK -3.2%, SONC -3.1% (light volume), TPX -1.3%, CMA -1.1%, ISRG -1.0%... Select financial related names trading lower: ING -24.2% (has record drop on speculation firm needs to raise capital - Bloomberg.com), AIG -9.9% (names David L. Herzog Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; also will be canceling more than 160 conferences and events following a meeting with NY AG), LYG -9.8%, IBN -9.6%, AXA -9.5%, BCS -8.2%, BAC -2.7%, GS -2.1%... Select metals/mining names showing weakness: MT -9.6% (considering 15% cut in global steel output; in response to weaker global steel demand - WSJ), RTP -7.7%, BHP -7.2%, BBL -6.7%, AEM -6.0%, AAUK -5.3%... Select oil/gas names trading lower: STO -5.2%, BP -4.9% (downgraded to Neutral at Goldman - DJ), TOT -3.8%... Other news: CGV -12.0% and SI -7.6% (still checking for anything specific), GE -2.1% (GATX drops bid for GE rail unit, according to sources - Reuters.com)... Analyst comments: SPWRA -5.9% (downgraded to Sell at Citigroup), FCX -2.3% (downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform at RBC Capital Mkts).
huvitav ka JP Morgan ajastas oma calli Buffeti "I am buying American stocks" calli järgi?
J.P Morgan calls for 16 stocks to own over the next 12-18 months
J.P Morgan presents their "Franchise 16," a select group of stocks that J.P. Morgan sees as core investments over the next 12-18 months. The 16 companies include 3M (MMM), Baxter International (BAX), Colgate (CL), Computer Associates (CA), Devon Energy (DVN), General Mills (GIS), Gilead Sciences (GILD), Google (GOOG), Hewlett Packard (HPQ), McDonald's (MCD), Merck (MRK), Monsanto (MON), Nucor (NUE), Philip Morris Int'l (PM), Union Pacific (UNP), and Visa (V).
MRK saab täna ka UBS poolt Buy
J.P Morgan calls for 16 stocks to own over the next 12-18 months
J.P Morgan presents their "Franchise 16," a select group of stocks that J.P. Morgan sees as core investments over the next 12-18 months. The 16 companies include 3M (MMM), Baxter International (BAX), Colgate (CL), Computer Associates (CA), Devon Energy (DVN), General Mills (GIS), Gilead Sciences (GILD), Google (GOOG), Hewlett Packard (HPQ), McDonald's (MCD), Merck (MRK), Monsanto (MON), Nucor (NUE), Philip Morris Int'l (PM), Union Pacific (UNP), and Visa (V).
MRK saab täna ka UBS poolt Buy
Peeter: igavad asjad on INVESTEERIMISEKS alati ühed parimad. Saada 15% dividendi ja seda reinvesteerida võib olla jätkuvalt üks üsna hea strateegia, igal juhul kindlam, kui loota, et mõni järjekordne enam-vähem kõigi poolt juba tuvastatud "roteeruv mull", millest sina või mina sisuliselt sittagi ei tea, mingil põhjusel õnnestunud investeeringut tähendab.
Kesk- ja Ida-Euroopas on Ungari tõttu täna ikka tõeline carnage.
kristjan, ma ei vaidle sellele absoluutselt vastu. See on mu rahutu iseloom, mis paneb mind momentumit taga ajama.