Nädalavahetusel tuli välja 2 olulist uudist:
1)Bear Stearns(BSC) maksis veel 2 päeva tagasi $55, nädalavahetusel müüdi aga ettevõte JPMile maha hinnaga $2 aktsia eest… Probleemide ulatus ettevõttes peab olema kirjeldamatult suur, et selline sundmüük olematu hinnaga ette tuli võtta.
2)Föderaalreserv langetas erakorraliselt diskontomäära (hind, millega saab laenata otse Keskpangalt) 3.50% pealt 3.25% peale.
Suurimad aktsiaindeksid on USA eelturul BSC sellise lõpplahenduse peale pisut üle 2% miinuspoolel.
... ja kuld on üle 1026$
Kas kogu euroopa peaks täna turgude avamise ootuses värisema?
Euroopas olukord järgmine: DAx -2.4%, CAC40 -2.2%
Põnevad sündmused igal juhul: Aasia ka suures miinuses, nafta ja kuld teevad uusi rekordeid, dollar jätkab kukkumist.
Ainuke küsimus on, et kes on järgmine?
Ainuke küsimus on, et kes on järgmine?
Dollar käis ära tesemel 1,59 eur/usd, mida lähemale Euroopa turgude avanemisele, seda stabiilsemaks olukord muutub ning hetkel kursiks 1,5762.
Greenspan Ft's: We will never have a perfect model of risk: "The pace of liquidation is likely to pick up even more as new-home construction falls further. The level of home prices will probably stabilise as soon as the rate of inventory liquidation reaches its maximum, well before the ultimate elimination of inventory excess. That point, however, is still an indeterminate number of months in the future."
Ning finantsekorisse tuld juurde:
Mortgage insurer PMI Group Inc (PMI) reported its biggest ever quarterly loss, primarily due to losses from its investment in bond insurer FGIC Corp, and slashed its quarterly dividend by over 70 percent. PMI , which had rescheduled its quarterly results , said fourth-quarter net loss was $1.0 billion, or $12.51 a share, compared with net income of $100.5 million, or $1.19 a share, in the year ago period. Analysts expected the company to post a loss of $3.37 a share, according to Reuters Estimates.
Mortgage insurer PMI Group Inc (PMI) reported its biggest ever quarterly loss, primarily due to losses from its investment in bond insurer FGIC Corp, and slashed its quarterly dividend by over 70 percent. PMI , which had rescheduled its quarterly results , said fourth-quarter net loss was $1.0 billion, or $12.51 a share, compared with net income of $100.5 million, or $1.19 a share, in the year ago period. Analysts expected the company to post a loss of $3.37 a share, according to Reuters Estimates.
leia 10 erinevust :)
17-Mar-08
08:19 LEH Lehman Brothers says liquidity position strong - Bloomberg (39.26 ) -Update-
LEH comments in e-mailed statement; says its liquidity continues to be very strong, liquidity framework is competitive advantage - Bloomberg
10-Mar-08
17:04 BSC Bear Stearns confirms that it denies liquidity rumors (62.30 -7.78) -Update-
The co announces it has denied market rumors regarding the firm's liquidity. The co stated that there is absolutely no truth to the rumors of liquidity problems that circulated today in the mkt. Alan Schwartz, President and CEO of the co, said, "Bear Stearns' balance sheet, liquidity and capital remain strong."
17-Mar-08
08:19 LEH Lehman Brothers says liquidity position strong - Bloomberg (39.26 ) -Update-
LEH comments in e-mailed statement; says its liquidity continues to be very strong, liquidity framework is competitive advantage - Bloomberg
10-Mar-08
17:04 BSC Bear Stearns confirms that it denies liquidity rumors (62.30 -7.78) -Update-
The co announces it has denied market rumors regarding the firm's liquidity. The co stated that there is absolutely no truth to the rumors of liquidity problems that circulated today in the mkt. Alan Schwartz, President and CEO of the co, said, "Bear Stearns' balance sheet, liquidity and capital remain strong."
Briefing vahendab analüüsimajade nägemusi Bear Stearnsi ja kogu finantssektori kohta. Kõige parem mõte tuleb Oppenheimerilt:
While they believe BSC's case is unique, what will not be unique is a resulting major negative revaluation of financials. Firm says that on the basis of book value, most banks do not appear expensive as they trade near price to book multiples of the 1990-1991 credit cycle. However on the basis of tangible book value, banks look expensive and are trading well above tangible book value. As they believe they will begin to see goodwill writedowns during the first half of this year, they believe investors will focus more on tangible book value and stocks will quickly revalue to far lower levels.
Sisuliselt on mõtet toetamas ka UBS:
UBS downgraded LEH, GS, STT, IVZ, and AMTD saying most capital markets related stocks are likely to move lower before recovering and valuations will likely test 20-year lows rather than 10-year lows.
Hetkel LEH -30%, MS -8%, GS -8%.
Mida see UBS downgradeb siin? Vaadaku, kuidas ISE hakkama saab :-p
Briefing on teinud päris hea kokkuvõtte meeleoludest, mis nüüd finantssektori ettevõtete analüütikuid valdavad. Peamine sõnum on see, et üldist 'odavat' raamatupidamisväärtust (BSC'l ju oli ca $80 juures) ei saa BSC takeunder'i järel enam investeerimise põhjuseks tuua.
Several analysts are out with comments on the financial sector following news that BSC would be bought by JPM for $2 per share... Oppenheimer notes the BSC buyout by JPM for $2 a share represents a mere 2% of the stated book value at the end of the fourth quarter. While they believe BSC's case is unique, what will not be unique is a resulting major negative revaluation of financials. Firm says that on the basis of book value, most banks do not appear expensive as they trade near price to book multiples of the 1990-1991 credit cycle. However on the basis of tangible book value, banks look expensive and are trading well above tangible book value. As they believe they will begin to see goodwill writedowns during the first half of this year, they believe investors will focus more on tangible book value and stocks will quickly revalue to far lower levels... Lehman says what the valuation JPM paid says for the valuation of financial assets in general could be disconcerting to bank stock investors, although they note BSC was under considerable liquidity strain over the past week. While the concurrent Fed actions of a 25bp cut in the discount rate (lowering the spread to Fed Funds to 25bps) and the expansion of the program are pluses, they may not be enough to stem current investor concerns with respect to bank stocks... Citibank notes that part of what enables a lack of confidence situation to develop is a lack of scale and lack of diversity in business mix. They think MER, MS, GS, & LEH all are larger and more diverse; therefore a crisis of confidence situation is a dramatically lower probability... Additionally, UBS downgraded LEH, GS, STT, IVZ, and AMTD saying most capital markets related stocks are likely to move lower before recovering and valuations will likely test 20-year lows rather than 10-year lows.
NY Empire State Index -22.2 vs -7.4 consensus, prior -11.7
see nõrk number ei huvita vist täna küll kedagi
see nõrk number ei huvita vist täna küll kedagi
NB! Reedel tähistatakse Suurt Reedet, seega aktsiaturud on suletud. Seega optsioonikauplejad - märtsikuine optsioonireede on sedapuhku reaalselt neljapäeval!
Eks nad üksteise võidu teisi downgrade'vad jah. Pindu teiste silmis näevad, aga palki enda silmis miitte. Muide, Oppenheimer oli see, kes samaaegselt teiste majade BSC hinnalangetamistega ütles kõva häälega vist esimesena välja, et the stock could be worthless.
Natuke vanemaid uudiseid kerides tasub meenutada teadet 11. märtsist.
Bloomberg.com reports Joseph Lewis, the second-largest shareholder in the co, may add to his holdings after the stock fell on speculation the co lacks sufficient access to capital, a person close to him said. Lewis, a 71-year-old billionaire who began building his Bear Stearns stake in September, views the investment as long-term and isn't bothered by the falling share price, the person said, declining to be identified because Lewis doesn't make public statements about his holdings.
Hetkel juba LEH -35%, MS -14%, GS -9%
Tundub,et täna tuleb kõva müügipäev.Kõige hullem ongi see ,et optsioonide aegumine on sattunud sellisele nädalale .Ise olen ka optsioone välja kirjutanud ja nüüd ei oskagi seisukohta võtta kuidas neid katta,sest täna müüakse alla, homme ostetakse jälle üles.
Maailma aktsiaturud vaatavad meile täna õige punaselt vastu:
Saksamaa DAX -3.65%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 -3.72%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 -2.93%
Hispaania IBEX -2.32%
Venemaa MICEX -2.70%
Poola WIG -2.93%
Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 -3.71%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng -5.18%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) -3.59%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) -6.06%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq -2.76%
Tai Set -1.52%
India Sensex -6.03%
Industrial Production -0.5% vs -0.1% consensus, prior +0.1%
Market Grapples With Crisis
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
3/17/2008 8:25 AM EDT
The easiest period in a crisis situation is actually the battle itself. The most difficult is the period of indecision -- whether to fight or run away. And the most dangerous period is the aftermath. It is then, with all his resources spent and his guard down, that an individual must watch out for dulled reactions and faulty judgment. -- Richard M. Nixon
The market is grappling with the stunning collapse of Bear Stearns (BSC) this morning. What is so unnerving about this situation isn't that a major brokerage is having problems but that the market did such an amazingly poor job of anticipating what was happening. A week ago BSC was trading over $70, and today it is essentially worthless. If the market is so totally incapable of valuing BSC how can we trust it to value anything else.
This is clearly a major financial crisis for the U.S. economy that will have widespread and long-lasting ramifications. We need to proceed with extreme care at this juncture to protect ourselves. As I've been saying for some time it is far more important in a bad market to protect our capital than try to find profits when conditions are so uncooperative. Ultimately some big money will be made in this crisis as the situation plays out but much money will also be lost by those who act rashly and prematurely.
The big problem for the market at this point is that we still do not have any clarity as to the extent of the problem. Normally a major crisis like the collapse of Bear Stearns can help the market bottom as it serves to purge some of the poison in the system. While that is true to some extent in this case we still really don't know how far reaching these problems are. If Bear can go from $70 to $2 so quickly why can't something else?
A further problem we are facing is that the short-term moves by the Fed to shore up the problems may do nothing but delay some of the problems we are facing. Already we can see the dollar spiraling into the abyss and fears of inflation are growing quickly as the market is flooding by attempts to create liquidity and keep financial systems from seizing up.
The hope of the bulls at this point is that this crisis will create some panic and give us a washout that results in a tradable low. Certainly the mood is sour enough that conditions are becoming good for a bounce particularly if governmental officials are successful in restoring some calm.
However, the biggest danger will come once things settle down, and we find that there aren't many catalysts for the market to rebound. We are likely to be plagued by the fear of the unknown even as we digest that Bear Stearns news today.
My advice remains what it has been for a while now. Stay patient, respect the fact that we are in a downtrend and don't try to guess when the bottom will occur. If you protect your precious capital now you will have the ability to profit greatly in the future. There is going to be a lot of chaos in the next few days. If you are a very short term trader there may be some opportunities but if you are a longer term investor it will still be too early to take any significant action.
-----------------------------
Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: HNR +3.8%, RAMR +3.5%, PMI +1.8%... M&A news: DMX +22.1% (receives tender offer to be acquired for $5.40/share by Walgreen's), BLOG +14.4% (BMC Software to Purchase BladeLogic for $28/share in cash), JPM +1.5% (to acquire BSC for $2/share, also ratings affirmed by Moody's and S&P)... Select gold stocks showing strength on higher spot prices: AUY +4.2%, GFI +2.6%, KGC +2.5%, GLD +2.3%, ABX +1.1%... Other news: CRME +29.8% (announces positive interim Ph. 2b results for oral vernakalant and engages Merrill Lynch as strategic advisor), TWTI +6.5% (Third Wave's InPlex CF Molecular Test receives FDA clearance), TUP +1.3% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney)... Analyst upgrades: NAT +1.9% (upgraded to Neutral at JPMorgan).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to weak earnings/guidance: TPX -11.0%, CNO -6.6%, BJGP -4.5%, ITW -4.4%, PGNX -3.8%, VQ -2.4%, SUI -2.1%, GBL -1.5%... M&A news: BSC -89.1% (to be bought by JP Morgan for $2/share in stock-swap)... Financial stocks are under heavy pressure after fire sale at BSC: LEH -31.4% (also downgraded to Neutral at UBS), WM -16.1%, MER -15.2%, C -15.0%, NCC -14.8%, CIT -14.6%, ABK -12.4%, CFC -10.7%, WB -10.5%, MBI -10.4%, UBS -10.4% (to consider 8,000 layoffs - NY Times), FNM -10.1%, IMB -9.4%, BCS -9.2%, MS -9.0%, GS -8.8% (also downgraded to Neutral at UBS), STT -8.4% (also downgraded to Neutral at UBS), RBS -8.1%, FRE -7.9%, COF -7.9%, CS -6.0%, AIG -5.8%, BAC -5.4%, DB -5.4%, ETFC -5.0%, WFC -4.9%, RF -3.7%, HBC -3.7%, BK -3.5% (also downgraded to Neutral at UBS)... Other news: SI -17.4% (outlook dims as several projects struggle - WSJ), CVTX -6.3% (announces they have not received action on the NDA, for regadenoson, from the FDA), ASTI -2.4% (files an $80 mln common stock shelf offering in an S-3), ADBE -1.7% (Hearing tier-1 firm cuts EPS ests for ADBE, saying macro outlook has deteriorated)... Analyst downgrades: MBLX -6.0% (downgraded to Hold at Jefferies), MRO -5.5% (downgraded to Neutral at tier 1 firm), AMTD -5.5% (downgraded to Neutral at UBS), CX -4.1% (downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Credit Suisse), DHT -2.7% (downgraded to Underweight at JPMorgan), PT -2.4% (downgraded to Underweight at JPMorgan), COH -1.5% (downgraded to Hold at Citigroup).
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
3/17/2008 8:25 AM EDT
The easiest period in a crisis situation is actually the battle itself. The most difficult is the period of indecision -- whether to fight or run away. And the most dangerous period is the aftermath. It is then, with all his resources spent and his guard down, that an individual must watch out for dulled reactions and faulty judgment. -- Richard M. Nixon
The market is grappling with the stunning collapse of Bear Stearns (BSC) this morning. What is so unnerving about this situation isn't that a major brokerage is having problems but that the market did such an amazingly poor job of anticipating what was happening. A week ago BSC was trading over $70, and today it is essentially worthless. If the market is so totally incapable of valuing BSC how can we trust it to value anything else.
This is clearly a major financial crisis for the U.S. economy that will have widespread and long-lasting ramifications. We need to proceed with extreme care at this juncture to protect ourselves. As I've been saying for some time it is far more important in a bad market to protect our capital than try to find profits when conditions are so uncooperative. Ultimately some big money will be made in this crisis as the situation plays out but much money will also be lost by those who act rashly and prematurely.
The big problem for the market at this point is that we still do not have any clarity as to the extent of the problem. Normally a major crisis like the collapse of Bear Stearns can help the market bottom as it serves to purge some of the poison in the system. While that is true to some extent in this case we still really don't know how far reaching these problems are. If Bear can go from $70 to $2 so quickly why can't something else?
A further problem we are facing is that the short-term moves by the Fed to shore up the problems may do nothing but delay some of the problems we are facing. Already we can see the dollar spiraling into the abyss and fears of inflation are growing quickly as the market is flooding by attempts to create liquidity and keep financial systems from seizing up.
The hope of the bulls at this point is that this crisis will create some panic and give us a washout that results in a tradable low. Certainly the mood is sour enough that conditions are becoming good for a bounce particularly if governmental officials are successful in restoring some calm.
However, the biggest danger will come once things settle down, and we find that there aren't many catalysts for the market to rebound. We are likely to be plagued by the fear of the unknown even as we digest that Bear Stearns news today.
My advice remains what it has been for a while now. Stay patient, respect the fact that we are in a downtrend and don't try to guess when the bottom will occur. If you protect your precious capital now you will have the ability to profit greatly in the future. There is going to be a lot of chaos in the next few days. If you are a very short term trader there may be some opportunities but if you are a longer term investor it will still be too early to take any significant action.
-----------------------------
Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: HNR +3.8%, RAMR +3.5%, PMI +1.8%... M&A news: DMX +22.1% (receives tender offer to be acquired for $5.40/share by Walgreen's), BLOG +14.4% (BMC Software to Purchase BladeLogic for $28/share in cash), JPM +1.5% (to acquire BSC for $2/share, also ratings affirmed by Moody's and S&P)... Select gold stocks showing strength on higher spot prices: AUY +4.2%, GFI +2.6%, KGC +2.5%, GLD +2.3%, ABX +1.1%... Other news: CRME +29.8% (announces positive interim Ph. 2b results for oral vernakalant and engages Merrill Lynch as strategic advisor), TWTI +6.5% (Third Wave's InPlex CF Molecular Test receives FDA clearance), TUP +1.3% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney)... Analyst upgrades: NAT +1.9% (upgraded to Neutral at JPMorgan).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to weak earnings/guidance: TPX -11.0%, CNO -6.6%, BJGP -4.5%, ITW -4.4%, PGNX -3.8%, VQ -2.4%, SUI -2.1%, GBL -1.5%... M&A news: BSC -89.1% (to be bought by JP Morgan for $2/share in stock-swap)... Financial stocks are under heavy pressure after fire sale at BSC: LEH -31.4% (also downgraded to Neutral at UBS), WM -16.1%, MER -15.2%, C -15.0%, NCC -14.8%, CIT -14.6%, ABK -12.4%, CFC -10.7%, WB -10.5%, MBI -10.4%, UBS -10.4% (to consider 8,000 layoffs - NY Times), FNM -10.1%, IMB -9.4%, BCS -9.2%, MS -9.0%, GS -8.8% (also downgraded to Neutral at UBS), STT -8.4% (also downgraded to Neutral at UBS), RBS -8.1%, FRE -7.9%, COF -7.9%, CS -6.0%, AIG -5.8%, BAC -5.4%, DB -5.4%, ETFC -5.0%, WFC -4.9%, RF -3.7%, HBC -3.7%, BK -3.5% (also downgraded to Neutral at UBS)... Other news: SI -17.4% (outlook dims as several projects struggle - WSJ), CVTX -6.3% (announces they have not received action on the NDA, for regadenoson, from the FDA), ASTI -2.4% (files an $80 mln common stock shelf offering in an S-3), ADBE -1.7% (Hearing tier-1 firm cuts EPS ests for ADBE, saying macro outlook has deteriorated)... Analyst downgrades: MBLX -6.0% (downgraded to Hold at Jefferies), MRO -5.5% (downgraded to Neutral at tier 1 firm), AMTD -5.5% (downgraded to Neutral at UBS), CX -4.1% (downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Credit Suisse), DHT -2.7% (downgraded to Underweight at JPMorgan), PT -2.4% (downgraded to Underweight at JPMorgan), COH -1.5% (downgraded to Hold at Citigroup).