Kiired ajad, kiired ajad, CNBC vahendab.
:)
Welcome, journalists! Now get out. Another fallout from the Bear Stearns
BSC debacle: financial analyst Richard Bove at Punk Ziegel, who has been much in demand for his commentary in the past few weeks, put out a press release over the weekend saying he would not be doing any more interviews and would not make research available to the media. He said he had been deluged with so many media calls he could not talk to his clients, and that "complaints from one television network were excessive." (Didn't say who).
USA esihumorist:
President Bush makes statement on economy & financial markets.
Says we're in challenging times, but that financial institutions are strong, with capital markets functioning efficiently.
President Bush makes statement on economy & financial markets.
Says we're in challenging times, but that financial institutions are strong, with capital markets functioning efficiently.
UBS arvab, et BSC ostmine on JP Morgan'i jaoks suurepärane diil:
UBS says the way they see it, JPM just paid ~$260 mln for a company that was thought to have $11 bln in tangible book just last week (so 0.03x tangible book or 0.25x expected earnings). Considering the transaction-related costs of ~$6bn pretax/~$4bn post tax, firm thinks JPM's definitely getting paid for the risk and opportunity cost of this deal. The price compensates JPM for the risk it's taking on, the environment we're in, and reflects the fact that JPM is one of very few firms that has the ability to take this on, especially over 1 weekend. Firm says JPM becomes an instant player in prime brokerage without the pain and cost of building; and it adds to capital markets platform by retaining select teams, without having to also hand out retention bonuses as had been typical of past IB deals.
UBS says the way they see it, JPM just paid ~$260 mln for a company that was thought to have $11 bln in tangible book just last week (so 0.03x tangible book or 0.25x expected earnings). Considering the transaction-related costs of ~$6bn pretax/~$4bn post tax, firm thinks JPM's definitely getting paid for the risk and opportunity cost of this deal. The price compensates JPM for the risk it's taking on, the environment we're in, and reflects the fact that JPM is one of very few firms that has the ability to take this on, especially over 1 weekend. Firm says JPM becomes an instant player in prime brokerage without the pain and cost of building; and it adds to capital markets platform by retaining select teams, without having to also hand out retention bonuses as had been typical of past IB deals.
huvitav, kas BSC hetke turuhind 3.60 USD kandis indikeerib parema pakkumise ootust kui 2 USD või ostjate rumalust? :)
kuram seda teab, mida mõeldakse. alguses mõtlesin, et tugev short covering hoiab asja ülkeval, aga jumal teab mida mõeldakse ..ostu tagasilükkamist, kõrgemat hinda ..või hoopis pankrotti. väga väga väikselt ja tight stopiga short vbla works out vbla saab 300-400% lossi
Douglas Kassi poolt CNBC-s väga mahlakas võrdlus :)
"The outlook for corporate profits is declining faster then Britney Spears’ career."
"The outlook for corporate profits is declining faster then Britney Spears’ career."
NTRI üllatavalt tugev, põhi käes.
NTRI suutlikus on tõesti üllatav. Ei näe küll miks peaks ostma. Tundub lihtsalt väike põrge.
Q: Palju maksavad LEHi april10 putid?
2.40-2.45
Volatiilsus 420, päris räige
Selline jutuke ilmus täna. Ma ise usun ka, et firma on liiga odav.
NutriSystem Inc. (NTRI) provides weight-management systems and fitness products and services in the U.S., including an at-home weight-loss program that features prepackaged food and dietary counseling. NTRI shares recently closed at $13.33, down sharply from its 52 week high of $74.09. I believe the shares are attractively priced at this level.
For the full year of 2007, revenue totaled $777 million, up 37%, while EPS increased 30% to $2.92. However, EPS fell to $0.33 in 4Q07 from $0.54 in the prior-year period as a result of steep increases in expenses. The company guided revenue of $690 million to $710 million for 2008, down from $776.8 million in 2007. The average estimate of five analysts polled by Thomson Financial Network was that the company would post revenue of $825.3 million this year. Chairman and CEO Michael J. Hagan attributed the expected revenue decline to the economy, but said the company was still optimistic about its long-term potential and was planning to enter several foreign markets.
Compared to Weight Watcher's International Inc. (WTW):
* NTRI at $13.33 share... WTW at $46.88/share
* NTRI at zero debt... WTW at 1.65 billion debt
* 31.74 million share float... WTW has 36.03 million float
* 66.6% short position (down from 71.5%)... WTW only a 6.9% short position
* 2008 eps at 2.05/share... WTW at 2.92/share
* 2009 eps at 2.39/share... WTW at 3.24/share
* P/E of 4.5... WTW at 18.9
* PEG ratio .33 ... WTW at 1.39
* More geographic expansion potential for NTRI compared to WTW. NTRI is expanding into Canada in 2008 and the U.K., Germany, Japan, and Australia in 2009.
Looking at these important numbers, one would expect NutriSystem Inc.'s shares to be trading much higher.
The company's customer growth faces challenges, including GlaxoSmithKline's (GSK) introduction of the diet pill Alli, as well as by aggressive advertising from other weight-loss companies.
However, this appears to be a short-term threat. The effectiveness of Alli is unproven, and its users complain of stomach pain and gas. Many users have not lost much, if any, weight. NTRI, on the other hand, has a relatively high reactivation rate, and customers are pleased with the results. The company signed up 218,000 new customers during the fourth quarter, 7% more than in the prior-year period but below guidance of 245,000. NTRI will likely need to spend heavily to promote its products, decreasing operating margin, but this should be offset in part by solid international growth and share repurchases.
For the long term, I am optimistic about the company's growth prospects. There is much room for growth in the diet industry. I expect increased promotions, returning customers and international expansion will result in a turnaround.
NutriSystem Inc. (NTRI) provides weight-management systems and fitness products and services in the U.S., including an at-home weight-loss program that features prepackaged food and dietary counseling. NTRI shares recently closed at $13.33, down sharply from its 52 week high of $74.09. I believe the shares are attractively priced at this level.
For the full year of 2007, revenue totaled $777 million, up 37%, while EPS increased 30% to $2.92. However, EPS fell to $0.33 in 4Q07 from $0.54 in the prior-year period as a result of steep increases in expenses. The company guided revenue of $690 million to $710 million for 2008, down from $776.8 million in 2007. The average estimate of five analysts polled by Thomson Financial Network was that the company would post revenue of $825.3 million this year. Chairman and CEO Michael J. Hagan attributed the expected revenue decline to the economy, but said the company was still optimistic about its long-term potential and was planning to enter several foreign markets.
Compared to Weight Watcher's International Inc. (WTW):
* NTRI at $13.33 share... WTW at $46.88/share
* NTRI at zero debt... WTW at 1.65 billion debt
* 31.74 million share float... WTW has 36.03 million float
* 66.6% short position (down from 71.5%)... WTW only a 6.9% short position
* 2008 eps at 2.05/share... WTW at 2.92/share
* 2009 eps at 2.39/share... WTW at 3.24/share
* P/E of 4.5... WTW at 18.9
* PEG ratio .33 ... WTW at 1.39
* More geographic expansion potential for NTRI compared to WTW. NTRI is expanding into Canada in 2008 and the U.K., Germany, Japan, and Australia in 2009.
Looking at these important numbers, one would expect NutriSystem Inc.'s shares to be trading much higher.
The company's customer growth faces challenges, including GlaxoSmithKline's (GSK) introduction of the diet pill Alli, as well as by aggressive advertising from other weight-loss companies.
However, this appears to be a short-term threat. The effectiveness of Alli is unproven, and its users complain of stomach pain and gas. Many users have not lost much, if any, weight. NTRI, on the other hand, has a relatively high reactivation rate, and customers are pleased with the results. The company signed up 218,000 new customers during the fourth quarter, 7% more than in the prior-year period but below guidance of 245,000. NTRI will likely need to spend heavily to promote its products, decreasing operating margin, but this should be offset in part by solid international growth and share repurchases.
For the long term, I am optimistic about the company's growth prospects. There is much room for growth in the diet industry. I expect increased promotions, returning customers and international expansion will result in a turnaround.
Turg on oma põhjadest võimsalt homse Föderaalreservi otsuse eel üles liikunud ja lähenetakse reedestele sulgumistasemetele.
BSC ise kaupleb aga JPMi poolt pakutud $2-lisest hinnast jupp maad kõrgemal. Oppenheimeri analüütik usub aga, et investorid on praegu lihtsalt eitusfaasis ja soovitab BSC aktsiad ära müüa:
BSC Bear Stearns: Oppenheimer analyst Whitney on CNBC says JPM was the only bank on the street that had the flexibility to do this deal (4.88 -25.14). Says there are people in denial that are holding onto the stock, or they are holding onto the idea that a white night comes in, but she advises shareholders to sell as there is nobody else that is going to come in here.
Lehman Brothers: Oppenheimer analyst Meredith Whitney also says that to suggest that Lehman is going to go out of business is a real stretch (31.21 -8.05).
BSC ise kaupleb aga JPMi poolt pakutud $2-lisest hinnast jupp maad kõrgemal. Oppenheimeri analüütik usub aga, et investorid on praegu lihtsalt eitusfaasis ja soovitab BSC aktsiad ära müüa:
BSC Bear Stearns: Oppenheimer analyst Whitney on CNBC says JPM was the only bank on the street that had the flexibility to do this deal (4.88 -25.14). Says there are people in denial that are holding onto the stock, or they are holding onto the idea that a white night comes in, but she advises shareholders to sell as there is nobody else that is going to come in here.
Lehman Brothers: Oppenheimer analyst Meredith Whitney also says that to suggest that Lehman is going to go out of business is a real stretch (31.21 -8.05).
Brokerid suutsid päeva põhjadest siiski kõrgemal lõpetada ning on üsna tõenäoline, et nii mõnelegi tuleb homme üsna positiivne päev. Hetkel Interactive Brokers (IBKR) -14%, GFI (GFIG) -22%, Tradestation (TRAD) -8% ning MF Global (MF) -65%.
MF on ka nõrkuse peasüüdlane ning kuigi otsest põhjust ei ole, siis levivad siingi kuulujutud halva olukorra kohta:
MF Global confirms Joe Lewis (BSC suuraktsionär) is not a client of MF Global; reiterates strong quarter-to-date performance. Co issues the following statement in connection with today's market activity: "MF Global understands the significant concerns across the markets... We are seeing no impact on our repo lines. In addition, MF Global has no exposure to sub-prime mortgage-backed securities that have been the root cause of the current market environment. While the company uses third party repo lines, we have alternative funding in the event those lines are not available to the company. The company is very well capitalized with $1.4 bln in a committed, undrawn credit facility.
Kuigi mured on olemas ja nagu näha, võib pauk ka luuavarrest tulla, siis tunduvad MFi mured hetkel natuke üle paisutatud. Üks paljudest kuulujuttudest...
Jah, aga kui on piisavalt palju kuulujutte, siis saab mõnna bankruni korraldada. Selline self-fulfilling ennustus: shordid stocki, vaadatakse, et midagi viltu, sest aktsia kukub, shorditakse ka, kliendid muutuvad murelikuks, et äkki langusel põhjus taga, tõmbavad raha välja, tekkibki põhjus, firma pekkis ja shordid õnnelik. Pakun, et sellist skeemi tehakse selle nädala jooksul veel korduvalt erinevate ohvritega.
Jah, eks see bankrun praegu ka päris hästi toimib, kaasa arvatud MFi puhul. Suured kalad ajavad papi kokku ja viimasena ärkavad prügikalad saavad valusalt vastu pükse.
kram, kas nii veaks ikka reaalsuses välja? ei tahaks uskuda kuidagi, et BSC aeti meelega bankrunni.
mõtlen nii, et keegi 80 usdi peal mõtles, et lets kill this shit
Ei usu, et jim BSC-d mõtles. Aga kui BSC juba ees ootamas ning hirm üleüldine, siis mõne väiksema ja probleemidele tundlikuma tegijaga võiks proovida küll. Või vähemalt sellele kaasa aidata ja natukenegi paanikat tekitada, millest peaks täitsa piisama.