Pakuksin hommiku alguseks lugemiseks ühte Bloombergi artiklit siin, kus räägitakse valuutaturgudest ning dollari võimalikust tugevnemisest euro vastu aasta lõpuks tasemele 1€=$1.5 ehk 10.43 EEKi dollari eest. Põhjuseks Föderaalreservi liikmete poolt viimasel ajal tehtud agressiivsed märkused inflatsiooni teemadel ning usk, et Fed on sunnitud intresse tõstma kiiremini kui ECB.
Aktsiaturgude futuurid teispool ookeanit varahommikul nulli lähedal.
27. märtsi börsipäeva foorumis sai viidatud Allied Waste'i (AW) madalale hinnatasemele, kuid tookord jäi idee Pro all avamata õhus oleva maksuvaidluse tõttu. Ettevõtte odavust on nüüd märganud ka konkurendid ning täna kinnitasid Allied Waste ja Republic Services (RSG), et viimane on Allied Waste'i $6.8 miljardi eest ära ostmas. Teade läbirääkimiste kohta avaldati siiski juba reedel, mille peale AW aktsia tõusis $15-ni.
Kuigi prügitööstus on pikemat aega tundunud huvitav ning lisaks tõstis Goldman Sachs neljapäeval sektori väljavaate atraktiivsele tasemele (ning andis AW hinnasihiks $18), ei saa praegusi hinnatasemeid pidada enam odavaks. AW on madalaima kasvuga, kaubeldes 15.9x 08 kasumit, RSG sama näitaja on 18.6. Kahe ettevõtte ühinemisel loodetakse edukalt konkureerida sektori suurima ettevõtte Waste Managementi (WMI) vastu, mille 08 PE on 17.5. Arvestades, et sektoris on jätkuvalt suudetud kasumit kasvatada ning Goldman Sachs ootab mahtude vähenemise aeglustumist, on aktsiate senine tõus olnud põhjendatud. Tõenäoliselt liigutakse positiivse sentimendi najal veel kõrgemale, kuid PE üle 20 tundub juba liiast, seega eriti head riski-tulu suhet enam ei paku. AW oleks jäänud erandiks, aga oleks-shmoleks...
Üldiselt peaks ka prügitööstusel keerulises majandusolukorras minema halvemini, kuid praegu on prügimahtude vähenemine aset leidnud ainult ehituses ega ole levinud teistesse tööstusharudesse. Lisaks suudavad prügifirmad vähenevaid mahte kompenseerida kõrgemate teenusehindadega, mis on eriti oluline kütusehindade kallinemise taustal.
Muide, tollasest foorumist on pärit ka selline lause:
Getting feedback that someone just entered into a very large LEH put spread of about 10,000 contracts: July 40's bought & July 17.5's sold.
Tundub, et seni läheb plaanipäraselt.
Prügitsektoris on olemas ka oma särav täht - meditsiinijäätmetele keskendunud Stericycle (SRCL). Graafik on olnud tõusus 1996. aastast, vahele on mahtunud ainult üks suurem langus 1999. aastal. Peale seda maksis aktsia $2.6, täna kaubeldakse $55 tasemel.
Kuigi investorid on nõus maksma preemiat prognoositavate rahavoogude, majandusest sõltumatu äri ning järgmise aasta oodatava 17%-lise kasumikasvu tõttu, tundub 2009. aasta hinna ja kasumi suhe 29 päris palju. Samas on suudetud viimaste kvartalite jooksul ületada ka analüütikute ootusi ning eelmise kvartali EPS oli $0.39 analüütikute oodatud $0.38 vastu.
The small quantity customer base is typically priced on the service base on free...-particularly in Steri-Safe where there is a monthly or quarterly fee, they really isn't a penalty and also the volume dynamic really doesn't affect the revenues in our cost structures that much.
Kuigi investorid on nõus maksma preemiat prognoositavate rahavoogude, majandusest sõltumatu äri ning järgmise aasta oodatava 17%-lise kasumikasvu tõttu, tundub 2009. aasta hinna ja kasumi suhe 29 päris palju. Samas on suudetud viimaste kvartalite jooksul ületada ka analüütikute ootusi ning eelmise kvartali EPS oli $0.39 analüütikute oodatud $0.38 vastu.
The small quantity customer base is typically priced on the service base on free...-particularly in Steri-Safe where there is a monthly or quarterly fee, they really isn't a penalty and also the volume dynamic really doesn't affect the revenues in our cost structures that much.
Prügitsektoris on olemas ka oma särav täht - meditsiinijäätmetele keskendunud Stericycle (SRCL). Graafik on olnud tõusus 1996. aastast, vahele on mahtunud ainult üks suurem langus 1999. aastal. Peale seda maksis aktsia $2.6, täna kaubeldakse $57 tasemel. Kuigi investorid on nõus maksma preemiat kergelt prognoositavate rahavoogude, majandusest sõltumatu äri (konverentsikõne transcriptist: The small quantity customer base is typically priced on the service base on free...-particularly in Steri-Safe where there is a monthly or quarterly fee, they really isn't a penalty and also the volume dynamic really doesn't affect the revenues in our cost structures that much) ning järgmise aasta oodatava 17%-lise kasumikasvu tõttu, tundub 2009. aasta hinna ja kasumi suhe 29 päris kõrgena.
Samas on viimaste kvartalite jooksul suudetud ületada analüütikute ootusi ning eelmise kvartali EPS oli $0.39 turu oodatud $0.38 vastu. Peale kvartaliaruande avaldamist uuendasid ka analüüsimajad oma arvamust: Oppenheimer (siht $66), JPM ja Merrill Lynch (siht $65) soovitavad aktsiat osta, Baird (siht $61) ja GS (siht $51) on neutraalsed.
Kuna ettevõtet eriti hästi ei tunne, siis soovitada midagi ei julge, aga tasub edasi uurida. Kui erilisi präänikuid kusagilt pinnale ei uju, tundub aktsia liiga optimistlikult hinnatud ning võib pakkuda shortimise võimalust.
WSJ kirjutab, et kuigi toornafta hind on selle aastal aina uusi tippe rünnanud, siis lühikeseksmüüjate panused on hoopiski kasvanud. Toornafta hinna liikumist jälgiva börsil kaubeldava fondi USO lühikeseks müüdud osakute arv on kerkinud 16 miljonini, mis ületab enam kui kahekordselt väljasolevate osakute koguarvu. Samas days to cover suhtarv on langenud, sest osakute keskmised päevakäibed börsil on samuti viimasel ajal hüppeliselt tõusnud.
Võin lõdvalt öelda, kuhu poole Nasdaq suundub:
:)
Pilt Reutersi vahendusel Oddo Securitie'si analüüsist, mõeldud TA sõpradele.
Morgan Stanley tänasest Euroopa strateegiast:
ECB hikes – sell on the rumour, buy on the news. An ECB hike now seems likely in next few months. This raises the risks to growth in the eurozone we think. Our economics team now expects 50bp of hikes in total by year-end but any signs of growth and inflation slowing sooner might make the ECB change tack. It is unusual for European policy rates to rise when the Fed has recently been cutting rates with 1991-92 the only true example. Rates had been rising since 1989 but twice – in February 1991 and July 1992 – an initial hike followed at least 6 months on hold. In both cases equities generally did better following the hike than before. So the (possible) upcoming rate hike from the ECB reinforces the downside risks to equities near-term.
Citigroup raises their fertilizer price forecasts following the recent runup in nitrogen and the increasing likelihood that global spot potash prices will reach $1,000/tonne delivered in 4Q. For 2009, they are increasing their nitrogen products price forecasts by 12-38% and potash forecast by 17%, raising co estimates and target prices on AGU (tgt upped to $119 from $101), CF (tgt upped to $215 from $200), MOS (tgt upped to $212 from $200), POT (tgt upped to $284 from $243) and TRA (tgt upped to $62 from $56).
Teisipäeval teatakse tund aega enne turgu maikuu tootjahinnaindeks - ootused 1.0% vs eelmise kuu 0.2% ning tuumikkomponendi osas ootused 0.2% vs eelmise kuu 0.4%. Samuti avalikustatakse ehituslubade ja ehituste alustamise number - mõlemalt näitajalt oodatakse halvenemist võrreldes eelmise kuuga. Kuigi paljud võivad oodatust paremat numbrit tõlgendada positiivsena, on minu silme läbi oluline ehitusaktiivsuse jätkuv langus, et majade hinnad saaksid alla tulla ja üleliigsed varud turult eemalduksid ning alles siis algaks ehitusaktiivsuse tõus.
Kuna eelmisel nädalal oli töötu abiraha taotlejate arv oodatust oluliselt kõrgem, siis kindlasti tasub sellenädalast numbrit teraselt jälgida, et kas tegu oli ühekordse suve algusega seotud näitajaga või tööjõuturu halvenemist indikeeriva olukorraga. Initial Claims teatatakse neljapäeval tund aega enne turgu.
Kuna eelmisel nädalal oli töötu abiraha taotlejate arv oodatust oluliselt kõrgem, siis kindlasti tasub sellenädalast numbrit teraselt jälgida, et kas tegu oli ühekordse suve algusega seotud näitajaga või tööjõuturu halvenemist indikeeriva olukorraga. Initial Claims teatatakse neljapäeval tund aega enne turgu.
Nafta teeb uusi tippe ja murrab niimoodi turgu...
Aasia väga roheline, kuid Euroopa punane ja ka Ameerika on nafta raskuse all pool protsenti miinusesse juba vajunud.
Saksamaa DAX -0.61%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 -1.10%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 -0.60%
Hispaania IBEX -1.41%
Venemaa MICEX +0.11%
Poola WIG -0.41%
Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 +2.72%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng +1.94%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) +0.19%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) -1.54%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq -0.18%
Tai Set +0.68%
India Sensex +1.36%
Dangerous Hope
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
6/16/2008 8:29 AM EDT
The trouble with most people is that they think with their hopes or fears or wishes rather than with their minds.
-- Will Durant
As we kick off a new week, the big question we have to confront is whether the bounces we experienced on Thursday and Friday are an indication that the market is bottoming and ready to turn up after a fairly quick correction, or whether we had oversold bounces within a new, developing downtrend. The bulls are hopeful that earnings this week from investment banks such as Lehman Brothers (LEH) and Goldman Sachs (GS) will help put a bottom in financials. The optimists are also hoping that crude oil prices will stop trending up, and that such a reversal will help cool some of the recent concerns about inflation.
The major negatives for the market right now are that oil prices are staying very high, inflation concerns are growing, economic growth is still spotty and there is a little too much hope out there. The technical picture of the major indices has been deteriorating and leadership has been narrowing, so all that we really have left is fertilizer and energy. There was some hope that technology stocks would step up and lead as commodities and energy pulled back, but that rotation is not taking hold as hoped, and we now have semiconductors breaking down once again.
I don't want to sound too negative, because there was some vigor to the bounce we saw on Friday, but my major concern is that the technical conditions of many individual stocks are not very promising. Our leadership is eroding, and even if energy and oil does remain strong, that may not bode well for the broad market as concerns about inflation intensify.
It is a muddled picture with a somewhat negative bias right now, and we need to make sure we pick our spots carefully and not be too hopeful or too negative. I'd feel much better about the market if we had better-looking technical charts and if many of the recent momentum leaders didn't look as though they are in the early stages of breakdown. However the market may still find some footing here, and that could give us some upside trading even if we maintain a generally bearish view of the market.
My biggest worry right now is that there seems to be too much hope out there. Market players were anxious to embrace a bounce last week, and the attitude I'm seeing this morning is that we have corrected quite a bit over the past couple of weeks and are now ready to resume the "worst is over" uptrend. I'm afraid we are in for a much more bumpy ride.
-----------------------------
Ülespoole avanevad:
TITN +7.9%... M&A news: SRVY +15.1% (to be acquired by Quadrangle for $15.50 per share), SIRI +8.7% and XMSR +8.3% (FCC staff backs XM-Sirius merger)... Select agriculture names showing strength with Citigroup raising fertilizer price forecasts: TRA +2.1%, AGU +1.6%, CF +1.3%... Select metals/mining stocks showing strength with higher spot prices: AAUK +4.1%, LMC +3.9%, GOLD +3.1%, DROOY +1.5%, BHP +1.4%, BBL +1.3%, RTP +1.1%... Other news: SUPG +12.7% (co's JAK2 Inhibitor, SGI-1252, inhibits in vivo tumor cell proliferation), BCS +8.3% (says share issue 'under consideration' - Financial Times), RAME +7.9% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), TEVA +5.2% (AZILECT 1mg tablets meet end points in ADAGIO Ph. III trial), CPST +4.9% (announces that it has received orders for new microturbine systems with orders are valued at approx $1.5 mln), CY +2.6% (still checking), AIG +1.7% (names Robert B. Willumstad Chief Executive Officer), SNHY +1.0% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney)... Analyst upgrades: SPWR +4.8% (upgraded to Outperform at Credit Suisse), SNDK +2.2% (upgraded to Market Perform at JMP), ESI +1.8% (upgraded to Buy at Stifel), GME +1.1% (upgraded to Neutral at Goldman - DJ).
Allapoole avanevad:
TXT -5.5%, ITW -1.7%... M&A news: AW -4.2% and RSG -3.0% (Republic Services and Allied Waste confirm merger discussions)... Select airlines showing modest weakness with crude hitting new all time highs: UAUA -2.9%, DAL -2.3%, CAL -2.2%, AMR -2.0%, NWA -1.9%, LCC -1.4%... Other news: ACAD -55.8% (announces results from ACP-104 phase IIb schizophrenia trial; did not meet its primary endpoint), CDS -5.1% (filed for $70 mln mixed shelf offering before the close on Friday), MNI -4.7% (reports that revenues in May 2008 decreased 15.1% and advertising revenues were down 16.6% from May 2007), DSCO -2.7% (files for a $150 mln mixed shelf offering)... Analyst downgrades: OMX -3.3% (downgraded to Neutral at Credit Suisse), UL -3.2% (downgraded to Sell at UBS), T -1.9% (downgraded to Neutral at UBS), IVGN -1.7% (downgraded to Neutral at BofA), WLK -1.6% (downgraded to Neutral at UBS), VZ -1.5% (downgraded to Neutral at UBS), GE -1.3% (downgraded to Neutral at JPMorgan).
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
6/16/2008 8:29 AM EDT
The trouble with most people is that they think with their hopes or fears or wishes rather than with their minds.
-- Will Durant
As we kick off a new week, the big question we have to confront is whether the bounces we experienced on Thursday and Friday are an indication that the market is bottoming and ready to turn up after a fairly quick correction, or whether we had oversold bounces within a new, developing downtrend. The bulls are hopeful that earnings this week from investment banks such as Lehman Brothers (LEH) and Goldman Sachs (GS) will help put a bottom in financials. The optimists are also hoping that crude oil prices will stop trending up, and that such a reversal will help cool some of the recent concerns about inflation.
The major negatives for the market right now are that oil prices are staying very high, inflation concerns are growing, economic growth is still spotty and there is a little too much hope out there. The technical picture of the major indices has been deteriorating and leadership has been narrowing, so all that we really have left is fertilizer and energy. There was some hope that technology stocks would step up and lead as commodities and energy pulled back, but that rotation is not taking hold as hoped, and we now have semiconductors breaking down once again.
I don't want to sound too negative, because there was some vigor to the bounce we saw on Friday, but my major concern is that the technical conditions of many individual stocks are not very promising. Our leadership is eroding, and even if energy and oil does remain strong, that may not bode well for the broad market as concerns about inflation intensify.
It is a muddled picture with a somewhat negative bias right now, and we need to make sure we pick our spots carefully and not be too hopeful or too negative. I'd feel much better about the market if we had better-looking technical charts and if many of the recent momentum leaders didn't look as though they are in the early stages of breakdown. However the market may still find some footing here, and that could give us some upside trading even if we maintain a generally bearish view of the market.
My biggest worry right now is that there seems to be too much hope out there. Market players were anxious to embrace a bounce last week, and the attitude I'm seeing this morning is that we have corrected quite a bit over the past couple of weeks and are now ready to resume the "worst is over" uptrend. I'm afraid we are in for a much more bumpy ride.
-----------------------------
Ülespoole avanevad:
TITN +7.9%... M&A news: SRVY +15.1% (to be acquired by Quadrangle for $15.50 per share), SIRI +8.7% and XMSR +8.3% (FCC staff backs XM-Sirius merger)... Select agriculture names showing strength with Citigroup raising fertilizer price forecasts: TRA +2.1%, AGU +1.6%, CF +1.3%... Select metals/mining stocks showing strength with higher spot prices: AAUK +4.1%, LMC +3.9%, GOLD +3.1%, DROOY +1.5%, BHP +1.4%, BBL +1.3%, RTP +1.1%... Other news: SUPG +12.7% (co's JAK2 Inhibitor, SGI-1252, inhibits in vivo tumor cell proliferation), BCS +8.3% (says share issue 'under consideration' - Financial Times), RAME +7.9% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), TEVA +5.2% (AZILECT 1mg tablets meet end points in ADAGIO Ph. III trial), CPST +4.9% (announces that it has received orders for new microturbine systems with orders are valued at approx $1.5 mln), CY +2.6% (still checking), AIG +1.7% (names Robert B. Willumstad Chief Executive Officer), SNHY +1.0% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney)... Analyst upgrades: SPWR +4.8% (upgraded to Outperform at Credit Suisse), SNDK +2.2% (upgraded to Market Perform at JMP), ESI +1.8% (upgraded to Buy at Stifel), GME +1.1% (upgraded to Neutral at Goldman - DJ).
Allapoole avanevad:
TXT -5.5%, ITW -1.7%... M&A news: AW -4.2% and RSG -3.0% (Republic Services and Allied Waste confirm merger discussions)... Select airlines showing modest weakness with crude hitting new all time highs: UAUA -2.9%, DAL -2.3%, CAL -2.2%, AMR -2.0%, NWA -1.9%, LCC -1.4%... Other news: ACAD -55.8% (announces results from ACP-104 phase IIb schizophrenia trial; did not meet its primary endpoint), CDS -5.1% (filed for $70 mln mixed shelf offering before the close on Friday), MNI -4.7% (reports that revenues in May 2008 decreased 15.1% and advertising revenues were down 16.6% from May 2007), DSCO -2.7% (files for a $150 mln mixed shelf offering)... Analyst downgrades: OMX -3.3% (downgraded to Neutral at Credit Suisse), UL -3.2% (downgraded to Sell at UBS), T -1.9% (downgraded to Neutral at UBS), IVGN -1.7% (downgraded to Neutral at BofA), WLK -1.6% (downgraded to Neutral at UBS), VZ -1.5% (downgraded to Neutral at UBS), GE -1.3% (downgraded to Neutral at JPMorgan).
Hommikul jäi millegipärast siia panemata - General Electric (GE) sai täna downgrade'i JPMi'lt 'neutraalse' peale varasemalt 'overweight' pealt. Sealt siis ka põhjus protsendi jagu miinuspoolel kauplemiseks.
Finantssektor näitab jällegi suhtelist tugevust, kuigi ülejäänud turg on nafta hinna tõusust jällegi üpris nõrk.
XLF-komponentidest ainukesena on veel negatiivsel poolel Bank of New York (BK), AIG samuti juba +0.18% tõusu jõudnud.
1. CQB andis täna kasumihoiatuse.
However, we continue to expect the second half will be challenging. Pricing in Europe has begun to moderate and reflect normal seasonal trends, as previously expected, and industry and other product supply costs continue to increase substantially. We expect these factors to result in a difficult third quarter, which is likely to reflect a significant loss, and a more normal fourth quarter."
2. Hommikul lasti läbi, et BB&T andis downgrade from buy to underweight.
Briefing: 09:37 CQB Chiquita Brands: Hearing CQB downgraded to Sell at BB&T (19.77 -3.57) (nad sell vist ei jagagi)
3. BB&T tegelik downgrade oli (parandati 09:54, breifingust ei ole parandust tulnud) from buy to hold.
Arvatavasti on tegu hoiatuse mõjuga ning downgrade mõju ei ole nii oluline, aga võib-olla teeb breifing paranduse ning vähe kosub?
Kuigi päris pikk aeg juba möödas ning hearing ehk ei pruugigi parandust leida.
However, we continue to expect the second half will be challenging. Pricing in Europe has begun to moderate and reflect normal seasonal trends, as previously expected, and industry and other product supply costs continue to increase substantially. We expect these factors to result in a difficult third quarter, which is likely to reflect a significant loss, and a more normal fourth quarter."
2. Hommikul lasti läbi, et BB&T andis downgrade from buy to underweight.
Briefing: 09:37 CQB Chiquita Brands: Hearing CQB downgraded to Sell at BB&T (19.77 -3.57) (nad sell vist ei jagagi)
3. BB&T tegelik downgrade oli (parandati 09:54, breifingust ei ole parandust tulnud) from buy to hold.
Arvatavasti on tegu hoiatuse mõjuga ning downgrade mõju ei ole nii oluline, aga võib-olla teeb breifing paranduse ning vähe kosub?
Kuigi päris pikk aeg juba möödas ning hearing ehk ei pruugigi parandust leida.
enek, midagi ostmas-müümas pole?
CQB nt.?
CQB nt.?
Long 17.20, telepaat.
ma ei oska seda värki üldse, aga võtsin ka tiba 17.19 pikaks.