Temporary buyers strike largely priced in We believe fertilizer fundamentals are nearing a bottom, given nitrogen and phosphate prices have already plunged through breakeven margins for marginal producers, triggering significant shuttered global capacity.
Our ratings on POT, MOS, IPI, and TRA are raised to Buys, CF is raised to a Neutral, and AGU remains an Underperform, largely due to a potential large inventory devaluation in its retail business.
Fourth, if the US re-circulates financial resources, by on-lending to well behaved countries that have lost access because of the financial crisis, it would not increase its net debt but instead would make money for the US taxpayer while helping increase demand for US exports.
Varem või hiljem on ka Lääne-Euroopa üllatava äratundmise ees, et kui mingite CEE aborigeenide finantseerimisvõimalusi ei taastata, polegi enam millegipärast võimalik sinna enam eksportida.
November Housing Starts 625K vs 736K consensus, prior revised to 771K from 791K
Üsna suur vahe, varudele peaks vähemalt hästi mõjuma.
November CPI YoY +1.1% vs +1.5% consensus, prior +3.7%
November Core CPI y/y +2.0% vs +2.1% consensus
November Core CPI m/m +0.0% vs +0.1% consensus
November CPI m/m -1.7% vs -1.3% consensus
Päris järsk vähenemine, deflatsioonioht natuke ikka kimbutab (see rohkem ärritamiseks öeldud)... Samas, põhiosa CPI vastas suuresti ootustele ning headline CPI vähenes nafta hinna languse tõttu.
Ma siin vaikselt mõlgutan oma mõtteid, et kas ECB tahab lihtsalt oma rolli lõpuni välja kanda, mis juba algselt valitud sai või on nende hawkish lüürikale mõni muu mõistlik põhjendus?
Good Spot for the Bulls By Rev Shark RealMoney.com Contributor 12/16/2008 8:12 AM EST
It's not so important who starts the game but who finishes it. -- John Wooden
With just 10½ days of trading left in 2008, stock market investors are anxious for a positive finish to one of the most miserable years ever. The economic situation alone has obviously been horrendous, and then we have this sickening Madoff fraud on top of things to shake confidence even more.
Nonetheless, market players have been showing an inclination lately toward shrugging off bad news. Granted, some of the upside is a function of crazy ETF-driven volatility in the final hour of trading, but the dip-buyers have been fairly resolute over the past week. The bears have had their chance to break the market back down but haven't been able to breach some of the key technical levels.
Overall, the technical setup isn't bad and the buyers just need a little catalyst to bring in some traders who are anxious to finish this year well. It is unlikely that buyers are going to have a very long-term time frame for trades at this point, especially with the high level of volatility, but they are hungry for opportunities given how hard this year has been.
We have the Goldman Sachs (GS) earnings report coming up this morning, which is widely expected to be poor, so the chances of a "buy the bad news"' reaction is fairly high. We also have the Fed interest rate decision tomorrow, option expiration and some positive seasonality that can also serve as positives for buyers looking for an excuse to put on some long exposure.
The biggest negative out there continues to be the volatility, which makes much of the action untrustworthy. Market players are not going to be comfortable with more aggressive trades as long as they have the risk of being whipsawed for 5% or 10% in a matter of minutes in the final hour of trading. On the other hand, this hesitancy means that many have limited long exposure and are not well positioned should we see a little upside run. At this time of year, that could cause some real scrambling should the bulls be able to generate a little momentum.
Conditions do appear favorable for the bulls here, but if you aren't skittish about this market, you sure haven't been paying attention lately. I'm not a fan of the bullish argument that we have seen a low because the worst has been priced in, but this market will certainly have some bear-market bounces at some point, and the fact that we are holding up well on a steady diet of terrible news can't be easily dismissed. If the bulls can't get anything going here soon, discouragement will set in fast, but some flickering rays of hope for a little upside do exist. ---------------------------------------------- Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: TITN +14.9%, BBY +10.3%, GS +5.8% ... Select financials trading higher following GS results: CIT +9.0%, STI +7.3%, XL +6.6% (S&P lowers ratings; co comments on ratings development and confirms that it does not have any investments in any funds managed by Bernard Madoff Investment Securities), HIG +3.6%, MS +3.0%, WB +2.7%, C +1.9% (to sell NikkoCiti Trust & Banking to MUFG unit - WSJ), WFC +1.6%, UBS +1.6%, BAC +1.5% (boosts number of shares of common stock authorized for issuance to 10 bln from 7.5 bln)... Fertilizer names showing strength boosted by Merrill upgrade of select names: TRA +8.8%, IPI +8.5%, MOS +5.8%, AGU +4.6%, POT +4.0%, SYT +2.7%... Select drybulk shippers trading higher: DRYS +7.9%, EXM +6.8%, DSX +5.1%, GNK +2.4%, NM +1.9%... Select solar stocks showing strength: JASO +9.8%, SPWRA +4.8%, FSLR +3.5%, ESLR +3.4%, LDK +3.0%, SOL +2.5%... Select European drug related names trading higher: SHPGY +2.6%, GSK +2.4%, SNY +2.3%, AZN +1.8%... Select oil/gas related names showing strength with crude higher: PBR +2.8%, CHK +2.6%, TOT +1.7%, RDS.A +1.7%, BP +1.4%, COP +1.0%... Other news: HUN +7.0% (modestly rebounding after yesterday's 50% drop), CEG +6.1% (EDF near deal to buy 50% Constellation Nuclear operations, according to source - DJ), CLNE +5.6% (has been awarded a 5-yr contract with a 5-yr option for compressed natural gas fueling services by Central Jersey Waste & Recycling), FO +1.4% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney)... Analyst comments: BIDU +6.7% (raised to Buy from Neutral by Goldman Sachs- DJ), DRRX +5.4% (resumed with Buy at Piper), GILD +2.6% (upgraded to Buy at Merrill).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: CNXT -32.8%, SWHC -19.1%, STEC -10.2%, ETN -7.4%, CX -5.3%, VSH -3.0% (light volume)... Other news: SAY -10.0% (to buy Maytas Infra, Maytas Properties for $1.6 bln - DJ), BMO -7.1% (to sell 33.34 mln shares at C$30 each - DJ)... Analyst comments: PGR -4.0% (downgraded to Sell at Citigroup), FFIV -3.3% (downgraded to Neutral at Baird), CS -2.7% (downgraded to Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley), WFMI -2.4% (downgraded to Underweight at JPMorgan).
Päris keeruline tänase FOMC meetingu mõju hinnata. Alandamine on juba fakt, aga kui alandavad X, siis mida teha. Või kui Y, siis mdia teha. See on keeruline.
