Mis NFLX liigutab?
Netflixi tulemused 21. aprillil peale turu sulgemist, eelnevalt kauplemine üsna närviline, kuid suuremaid liikumisi ootaks tulemuste järel. Täna suuremaid liikumis tegemas IBM.
Rev Shark:
Bad Earnings Apply More Heat to the Meltdown
4/15/05 8:14 AM ET
"Thy fate is the common fate of all;
Into each life some rain must fall.
-- Henry Wadsworth Longfellow
To put it bluntly, this market stinks. Not only does good news from a company like Apple Computers (APPL:Nasdaq) generate selling but then IBM (IBM:Nasdaq) announces a lousy quarter early. All nearby technical support has crumbled and selling is occurring on higher volume and very poor breadth.
It is a good-old-fashioned meltdown. They occur in the market on a regular basis and they eventually lead us to better times. Our natural inclination is to try to resist the dark and stormy times. We tell ourselves that this will end at any moment and when that doesn't work we may try sticking our head in the sand and ignoring what is happening.
The problem with denial and inaction is that corrections can last a lot longer than we think and cause some major damage to our capital. If you ride the correction down it is much more difficult to dig yourself out of the hole if you had simply stepped aside and sat on your hands for a while.
Unfortunately, in the stock market one of the great sports is calling the turns. Great masses of market players want to be the ones who nail the exact turning point in the market, and this leads to a constant barrage of opinions that the lows are in.
If you are a very short-term trader, catching an intraday swing can produce some nice profits but if you have a longer-term time frame trying to catch a market turn can be quite costly as bounces fail and the downtrend lasts longer than seems reasonable. Longer-term investors should err on the side of being late rather than trying to catch the exact bottom. You can miss a good amount of upside and still do extremely well. In fact you often do much better because you avoid losses that occur from serial bottom calling.
After two very lousy days for the market and the poor news from IBM the mood is extremely negative and gloomy. It is when everyone hates the market and wants nothing to do with it that eventually leads to a bottom, but trying to time extremes in sentiment is a very tough task. Just when it looks like the selling has to slow, bad news hits and another barrage begins.
Earnings reports are part of the market problem right now but the bigger issue is concerns about a global economic slowdown. The worry has suddenly found a voice but what makes it worse is that we still have Alan Greenspan and the Fed focused on inflation and increasing interest rates. Not only do we have to contend with a lackluster economy, but we also have a Fed that is making matters worse by sending the message that it will keep on raising rates. If the Fed sent the message it would back off, this market would rally big, and very fast.
So we kick off this spring Friday with the market in a steep downtrend and a very negative mood. There is a good chance of some increased volatility today as emotions become more intense. That's great for those with very short time frames but if you are a longer-term holder don't let intraday swings influence you. Wait for a better market environment before you put your cash to work and remember that the market won't return to health overnight.
We have a very negative open on the way because of IBM. Overseas market were down quite sharply overnight. Oil is back down after jumping up yesterday but the market seems to be less sensitive to crude lately.
Proceed with caution.
No positions in stocks mentioned
Gary B. Smith:
Siiski pole see päris harilik likumine - NFLX puhul siis...
Aga Netflixi tänane uudis selline, et Amazon hakkab firmaga koostööd tegema, üks potentsiaalne konkurent USA laenutusturul vähem.
tänases päevalehes artikkel taseri imerelvast
kui juba soome katsetab küll siis eestigi varsti sinnamaani jõuab
kui juba soome katsetab küll siis eestigi varsti sinnamaani jõuab
09:15 NFLX Netflix: Amazon eyeing DVD rental partnership in U.S. - Reuters (11.98 )
Reuters reports that AMZN has approached online DVD rental service co's, including Blockbuster (BBI) and NFLX, to explore a partnership rather than launching its own U.S. DVD rental service, an industry source said on Thursday
sB
Reuters reports that AMZN has approached online DVD rental service co's, including Blockbuster (BBI) and NFLX, to explore a partnership rather than launching its own U.S. DVD rental service, an industry source said on Thursday
sB
damn kui valus on optsioonireedel vaadata kuidas strangle liigub kahe strike vahele :(
Pakun, et näiteks QQQQ põhi saabub EMA50 ja EMA200 ristumisel nagu see oli aug.04.
Pooljuhid savad juba kolmandat päeva järjest hirmasti vatti. Eriti nukker on Applied Materials (AMAT), mis pooleteise aasta tagustest tippudest umbes 45% madalamal ning langes täna ligi 2 aasta madalaimatele tasemetele. Ootused lüüakse järgmise nädala tulemusteralliks igal juhul alla.
Ka Micron Technology (MU) on üsna hooga alla tulnud hetkel -2.87%
dow tegigi päevasiseselt -200 ära. uhke päev.
mulle meeldivad äärmused, kui sajab, siis nii et uputab. kui tuleb lund, siis olgu tänavad umbes :) ei oskagi kohe statsi vaadata millal viimati sellist languspäeva nähti ja millal sellist kolme järjestikku.
mulle meeldivad äärmused, kui sajab, siis nii et uputab. kui tuleb lund, siis olgu tänavad umbes :) ei oskagi kohe statsi vaadata millal viimati sellist languspäeva nähti ja millal sellist kolme järjestikku.
Volatiilsusindeksid ka viimase poolaasta tipus. Käive suur. Põhi vist selleks korraks lähedal.
AAPL tuleb kolinal edasi. Nagu kelguga. P/E alla 40 juba. Huvitav, kas kõigil on 2000 detsembri kukkumine veel nii värskelt meeles, et pärast praegusi tippe peeti sellist asjade käiku nagu kohustuslikuks juba. Ainus vahe on selles, et tookord oli splitjärgne kvartalitulemus väga nõrk. Nüüd on asjad vastupidi.
Lõhnab põhja järele jah. VIX rallis päeva lõpus väga võimsalt, läksin Mai VIXi futuuris (sümbol VBI) 154 pealt lühikeseks.
Oleme jõudnud ka üsna Nasdaq 1900 juurde, see võib toetust pakkuda küll.
Oleme jõudnud ka üsna Nasdaq 1900 juurde, see võib toetust pakkuda küll.
Ups. Septembris 2000 oli see nali.
COMPX ja SPX võiks graafiku järgi küll otsa kasvõi natukeseks üles keerata, INDU-l on vist natuke tühjem see jalgealune? saab imet näha milline see konreetne sündmus on mille peale ükskord nina teisele poole suunatakse. a sellest kuuajasest loksumisest oligi juba villand ;)
Natuke ka naiivset loogikat.
Huvitav stats veel see, et kui enne 2000 aasta põntsu oli AAPL 10 korda ülespoole üllatanud, siis seekord vaid 6.
4 korda on veel ees ;-)
Huvitav stats veel see, et kui enne 2000 aasta põntsu oli AAPL 10 korda ülespoole üllatanud, siis seekord vaid 6.
4 korda on veel ees ;-)
VIXi tänane liikumine on ikka üsna meeletu ja viimase kolme päevaga on tõusnud indeks üle 6 punkti! See viitab küll paanikale.
VIXi viimase paari minuti liikumine oli iseenesest suur. Kas targemad oskaksid seda veidi lahti seletada? Ja mis põhimõttel indeksit arvutatakse?