Eilne USA sessioon tõi veidi vaheldust pildile, mida oleme oktoobris palju näinud. Rong ei liikunud jälle pidurdamatult ühes suunas, vaid päeva alguses kogeti ka veidi järsemat langust. Rev Shark jääb oma blogis lootusrikkaks, et ehk domineerivad masinate asemel turgu taas lihast ja verest kauplejad.
USA möödunud nädala töötuabiraha taotluste arv jäi stabiilseks ning püsib juba mõnda aega seal 400k juures. Ehkki langus oleks muidugi tervitatavam, siis number jääb madalamaks tasemest, mis viitaks uuele majanduslangusele (450-475k). Augusti kaubandusbilansi defitsiit püsis muutumatuna, mis on pannud näiteks Deutsche analüütikud mõtlema, et nad võivad olla oma 2,0%lise Q3 SKT prognoosi osas liiga konservatiivsed. Septembri jaemüügistatistika on üks viimaseid elemente, mille põhjal võivad paljud analüütikud lõplikud muudatused oma ootustes teha.
Tänasest makrostatistikast võiks välja tuua eurotsooni septembrikuu lõpliku inflatsiooninäidu (kell 12.00). Esmane hinnang üllatas paljusid, kui oodatud 2,5%lise tõusu asemel kallinesid hinnad hoopis 3,0%. Hüpe võis olla siiski ajutine tingituna metoodika muutmisest mitmete hooajaliste asjade (riided ja jalanõud) käsitlemisel. USA poolel on fookuses septembrikuu jaemüük (kell 15.30) ja Michigani oktoobri tarbijasentiment (kell 16.55).
USA futuurid on kauplemas 0,3-0,6% plussis ja Euroopagi avanemas 0,5% kõrgemal vaatamata sellele, et S&P on öösel langetanud Hispaania krediidireitingut ühe pügala võrra. EUR/USD püsib samuti jätkuvalt 1,38 dollari peal.
Hiina inflatsioon püsis septembris jätkuvalt üsna kõrgel, kuigi langedes siiski augusti 6,2% pealt 6,1% peale (YoY), mis vastas ka konsensuse ootustele. Kuu baasil kiirenes THI tervelt 0,5% (augustis 0,3%) ning vaevalt, et keskpank nüüd sellest rahapoliitikat lõdvemaks muudab. Tõenäoliselt muutuvad kriitilisemaks järgmiste kuude näidud, mis kiirema alanemise korral annavad keskpangale oluliselt parema positsooni kaitsta majandust negatiivsete välistegurite eest. Barclays Capital prognoosib näiteks tarbijahindade tõusuks oktoobris 5,5% ja novembris 5%.
Mitmed transporditöölised jätkvad täna Kreekas teist päeva streikimist. Lisaks sellele, et Ateenas pole võimalik liigelda busside, metroo, trollide, elektriraudtee ja trammidega, ei leidu ka ühtegi taksot. Linnadevahelised rongid sõidavad, kuid liiklus peatatakse järgmisest teisipäevast kuni neljapäevani. 10päevasele streigile lähevad täna tolliametnikud, mis võib tingida toidu ja kütuse puuduse. Kathimerini kirjutab pikemalt .
One of the most vehement protests has been that of GENOP, the union representing the Public Power Corporation, whose members took over the company’s billing department on Wednesday to stop it from sending bills containing a new emergency property tax to homeowners. After indicating that they would end the sit-in, and intervene instead if PPC attempts to cut the power supply to homeowners refusing to pay the tax, GENOP’s president, Nikos Fotopoulos, announced yesterday that the occupation would continue. He was speaking after PPC said it would find a different venue to print the bills for the tax
One of the most vehement protests has been that of GENOP, the union representing the Public Power Corporation, whose members took over the company’s billing department on Wednesday to stop it from sending bills containing a new emergency property tax to homeowners. After indicating that they would end the sit-in, and intervene instead if PPC attempts to cut the power supply to homeowners refusing to pay the tax, GENOP’s president, Nikos Fotopoulos, announced yesterday that the occupation would continue. He was speaking after PPC said it would find a different venue to print the bills for the tax
Nendes streikides pole tegelikult midagi eripärast ega iseloomulikku praegusele ajale.
Elasin 2010. pool aastat Ateenas ning seal oli see igapäevane, et mingi osa ühistranspordist streigib ning iganädalane, et kogu ühistransport streigib. Samuti prügistreigid ning toidupoodide streigid.
Ja nii on see seal aastaid toimunud. Lihtsalt kuna praegu on Kreeka populaarne teema meedias, siis on sellest ka läänes rohkem rääkima hakatud. Siis tollastest streikidest ei rääkinud siin keegi.
Rahandusministeeriumi ametnike streigid muidugi on jah, iseloomulikud viimasele ajale. Aga kõik muud ühiskonnagrupid on seal aastaid regulaarselt streikinud.
Elasin 2010. pool aastat Ateenas ning seal oli see igapäevane, et mingi osa ühistranspordist streigib ning iganädalane, et kogu ühistransport streigib. Samuti prügistreigid ning toidupoodide streigid.
Ja nii on see seal aastaid toimunud. Lihtsalt kuna praegu on Kreeka populaarne teema meedias, siis on sellest ka läänes rohkem rääkima hakatud. Siis tollastest streikidest ei rääkinud siin keegi.
Rahandusministeeriumi ametnike streigid muidugi on jah, iseloomulikud viimasele ajale. Aga kõik muud ühiskonnagrupid on seal aastaid regulaarselt streikinud.
Lisaks Kreekale on oma eelarvedefitsiidi eesmärkidega hädas ka Hispaania, kes soovib puudujääki vähendada eelmise aasta 9,2% pealt tänavu 6% ja järgmisel aastal 4,4% peale. Valitsus ootab tänavu majanduskasvuks 1,3%, kuid paljud teised asutused juba alla protsendist tõusu ning senised kärpemeetmeid ei näi vajalikku tulemust andvat. Hetkel tõdevad seda avalikult analüütikud, kuid vaikselt on ka ametnikud ise arvatust keerulisemat olukorda tunnistamas. Via FT
“The budgetary improvement seems more myth than reality,” wrote Jamie Dannhauser of Lombard Street Research in an analysis published on Tuesday, calling the 6 per cent target “a pipe-dream” without dramatic and unexpected improvements in the budgetary positions of regional and local governments.
Mr Dannhauser noted that general government net borrowing in the first half of the year was just below 9 per cent of GDP. “Policy measures worth 3 per cent of GDP have been put in place to tighten the budget this year and restore Spain’s fiscal credibility. They don’t seem to be working.”
“The budgetary improvement seems more myth than reality,” wrote Jamie Dannhauser of Lombard Street Research in an analysis published on Tuesday, calling the 6 per cent target “a pipe-dream” without dramatic and unexpected improvements in the budgetary positions of regional and local governments.
Mr Dannhauser noted that general government net borrowing in the first half of the year was just below 9 per cent of GDP. “Policy measures worth 3 per cent of GDP have been put in place to tighten the budget this year and restore Spain’s fiscal credibility. They don’t seem to be working.”
Fitch langetas UBS reitingut ja on hoiatanud ka mitme teise suupanga reitingu alandamise eest:
Fitch has downgraded the bank's rating from A+ to A, and put seven other European and U.S. banks under review, citing stressed economies and financial markets and regulatory reform.
Barclays, Bank, BNP Paribas, Credit Suisse Group, Deutsche Bank, Societe Generale, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs Group have all been put on notice for possible downgrades.
Fitch said the cuts would in most cases be one notch, although it could impose two notches in some instances.
Täna pälvib tähelepanu ka G20 kohtumine Pariisis:
The euro zone debt crisis will dominate a summit of G20 finance chiefs and central bank heads in Paris, with a downgrade of Spain's credit rating highlighting the risk of a much larger economy than Greece coming under threat.
"This meeting takes place in a context where the absolute priority for the success of the G20 is to find the elements for the stability of the euro zone," a source at the French finance ministry said.
Eurotsooni aastane inflatsioon tõusis septembris 3%-ni, mis vastas ka Eurostati esialgsele hinnangule. Tegu on kõrgeima näitajaga alates 2008. aasta oktoobrist. Tarbijahinnaindeksi tuumikosa kasvas võrreldes eelmise aastaga 1.6%. Suurimat mõju tarbijahinnaindeksile avaldasid kütuste, kütteõli ja elektri hinna tõus.
Eurozone September inflation +3% (Y/Y) vs. 2.5% in August, confirming preliminary estimate.
Peamiseks katalüsaatoriks energiakulud, mis kasvasid aastaga 12,4%. Kuid märkimisväärset kiirenemist näitas ka tuuminflatsioon (ühe kuuga 1,2% pealt 1,6% peale).
Peamiseks katalüsaatoriks energiakulud, mis kasvasid aastaga 12,4%. Kuid märkimisväärset kiirenemist näitas ka tuuminflatsioon (ühe kuuga 1,2% pealt 1,6% peale).
Uudis Hulu müügiprotsessi peatamisest võib tuge pakkuda NFLX-le.
Goldman Sachs kirjutab, et Hulu üksinda NFLX väga ei ohusta ja oleks kahtlemata märksa tõsisem konkurent, kui näiteks Amazon oleks Hulu üle võtnud.
Hulu equity owners (including News Corp, Providence Equity, and The Walt Disney Company) and Hulu management announced in a joint statement this evening that the Hulu sale process had been terminated.
We view an independent Hulu as a less potent competitor to Netflix than a Hulu backed by any of the likely bidders, especially Amazon. Hulu has 1 mn paying subscribers (as of the end of the summer) and roughly 40 mn free
users (generating advertising revenue).
Goldman Sachs kirjutab, et Hulu üksinda NFLX väga ei ohusta ja oleks kahtlemata märksa tõsisem konkurent, kui näiteks Amazon oleks Hulu üle võtnud.
Hulu equity owners (including News Corp, Providence Equity, and The Walt Disney Company) and Hulu management announced in a joint statement this evening that the Hulu sale process had been terminated.
We view an independent Hulu as a less potent competitor to Netflix than a Hulu backed by any of the likely bidders, especially Amazon. Hulu has 1 mn paying subscribers (as of the end of the summer) and roughly 40 mn free
users (generating advertising revenue).
Ka Prantsusmaa 10 aastase võlakirja tulusus on vaikselt Saksamaa bundist lahti haakimas, peegeldades kasvanud riskikartlikkust Prantsusmaa pärast võrreldes Saksmaaga. Erinevus pole küll nõnda silmapaistev nagu mõne perifeeriariigi puhul, kuid 93 baaspunktine vahe märgib sellegipoolest eurotsooni ajaloo kõrgeimat preemiat
Gapping up
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: GOOG +7.1%, JBHT +6.3%, SAP +2.3%.
Select metals/mining stocks trading higher: TCK +2.9%, MT +2.7%, FCX +2.4%, RIO +2.0%, BBL +1.7%, SCCO +1.7%, SLV +1.5%.
Select oil/gas related names showing strength: ROYL +4.8%, SD +2.3%, E +2.1%, RIG +2.1%, TOT +1.9%, BP +1.3%.
A Few internet related names are getting boost following GOOG results: SINA +3.1%, YOKU +3.1%, SOHU +2.5%, BIDU +2.3%, YHOO +0.4%,
A few potential iPhone 4S suppliers are seeing continued strength: TQNT +6.9%, SWKS +3.7%, OVTI +3.7%, QCOM +1.3%.
Other news: NAV +8.1% (trading higher after Icahn disclosed stake), OPK +6.2% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), UN +3.1% (to acquire 82% of russian beauty company Concern Kalina for EUR 500 mln).
Analyst comments: JNPR +2.3% (initiated with Buy at ISI Group).
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: GOOG +7.1%, JBHT +6.3%, SAP +2.3%.
Select metals/mining stocks trading higher: TCK +2.9%, MT +2.7%, FCX +2.4%, RIO +2.0%, BBL +1.7%, SCCO +1.7%, SLV +1.5%.
Select oil/gas related names showing strength: ROYL +4.8%, SD +2.3%, E +2.1%, RIG +2.1%, TOT +1.9%, BP +1.3%.
A Few internet related names are getting boost following GOOG results: SINA +3.1%, YOKU +3.1%, SOHU +2.5%, BIDU +2.3%, YHOO +0.4%,
A few potential iPhone 4S suppliers are seeing continued strength: TQNT +6.9%, SWKS +3.7%, OVTI +3.7%, QCOM +1.3%.
Other news: NAV +8.1% (trading higher after Icahn disclosed stake), OPK +6.2% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), UN +3.1% (to acquire 82% of russian beauty company Concern Kalina for EUR 500 mln).
Analyst comments: JNPR +2.3% (initiated with Buy at ISI Group).
kas soovitaksite mõnada allikat, kust saab vaadata, millised USA ettevõtted ja millal majandustulemustega tulevad?
tänud ette :-)
tänud ette :-)
TO mehve
http://www.briefing.com/investor/calendars/earnings/2011/10/10-14/
http://www.briefing.com/investor/calendars/earnings/2011/10/10-14/
Berlusconi võib natuke kergemalt hingata.....Italy's Berlusconi wins confidence vote
Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: NCMI -29.8% (also downgraded at Piper Jaffray, Lazard, Stifel and JPMorgan), MCHP -1.9%, MAT -0.6%.
A few financial related names showing weakness: DB -2.9%, NBG -2.0%, UBS -1.8%, BBVA -1.7%, LYG -1.0%.
Other news: DEPO -25.2% (announces top-line results from Serada Phase 3 Trial BREEZE 3 in menopausal hot flashes), INSM -14.3% (notified by FDA that it is continuing the clinical hold previously placed on Insmed's phase 3 clinical trial for ARIKACE).
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: NCMI -29.8% (also downgraded at Piper Jaffray, Lazard, Stifel and JPMorgan), MCHP -1.9%, MAT -0.6%.
A few financial related names showing weakness: DB -2.9%, NBG -2.0%, UBS -1.8%, BBVA -1.7%, LYG -1.0%.
Other news: DEPO -25.2% (announces top-line results from Serada Phase 3 Trial BREEZE 3 in menopausal hot flashes), INSM -14.3% (notified by FDA that it is continuing the clinical hold previously placed on Insmed's phase 3 clinical trial for ARIKACE).
September Retail Sales 1.1% vs +0.6% Briefing.com consensus; Prior revised to +0.3% from 0.0%
September Retail Sales ex-auto +0.6% vs +0.3% Briefing.com consensus; Prior revised to +0.5% from +0.1%
September Retail Sales ex-auto +0.6% vs +0.3% Briefing.com consensus; Prior revised to +0.5% from +0.1%
Täna ma arvan läheb S&P 1230 testimiseks.
Google Powers a Bounce
By James "Rev Shark" DePorre
Oct 14, 2011 | 8:52 AM
"People seem to enjoy things more when they know a lot of other people have been left out of the pleasure." --Russell Baker
When markets go straight up, like they did the past week, it tends to create a large supply of underinvested bulls anxious to buy pullbacks. The methodology of many market players doesn't allow them to chase strength, so they wait for downside action before they buy. Though it's better to chase things higher when they start to run, stylistically they are committed to buying weakness and will do so automatically, even if the dips are minor and the market are still wildly overbought.
Thursday's action was a good example of how dip buying tends to manifest itself. There was a bit of panic at the open and the buyers hesitated at first, but we held steady all morning and that was all they needed to inch in later in the day and produce a strong finish. The indices were mixed and breadth negative, but given how extended we were, it is impressive that we held up so well and the selling was so contained.
This morning Google (GOOG) is helping to keep the quick bounce going. GOOG generally doesn't create much broad market sympathy with its report, but this morning there is hope once again for another Europe-is-saved rally, and the dip buyers who weren't fast enough yesterday are worried this market might run away without them. It was a solid report and that is helping the mood ahead of the reports to come in the next few weeks.
From a trading standpoint, it would be much easier if the market pulled back deeper and consolidated a bit before turning back up, but the market never wants to make things easy. Too many market players are looking for exactly that sort of action, but they are so tired of being left behind when the market runs straight up that they never give it time to develop.
An added complexity is the start of earnings season. Tuesday night in particular will be interesting when Apple (AAPL) and Intel (INTC) report. INTC's earnings have often marked a turning point in the market action, and AAPL is probably the most important stock in the market.
After the run-up we've had this week, conditions are good for a sell-the-news reaction if reports aren't extremely good, but as we are seeing this morning from GOOG, extended stocks can keep on running on solid numbers. We'll see how well GOOG holds its gains, but I'd be surprised if it doesn't have very solid underlying support.
The biggest challenge for technical traders is that the action hasn't helped to create solid, buyable charts. It has been the primary dilemma of this market since the low in March 2009 and it doesn't look like it is going to change today. If you want to put money to work, you need to force it. Many folks are doing just that, which is why the charts never have time to develop well.
Watch for the bears to fade the gap-up open, but I expect the dip buyers to provide plenty of support. Unless we have some surprise negative news, I don't expect any major downside in the near term.
By James "Rev Shark" DePorre
Oct 14, 2011 | 8:52 AM
"People seem to enjoy things more when they know a lot of other people have been left out of the pleasure." --Russell Baker
When markets go straight up, like they did the past week, it tends to create a large supply of underinvested bulls anxious to buy pullbacks. The methodology of many market players doesn't allow them to chase strength, so they wait for downside action before they buy. Though it's better to chase things higher when they start to run, stylistically they are committed to buying weakness and will do so automatically, even if the dips are minor and the market are still wildly overbought.
Thursday's action was a good example of how dip buying tends to manifest itself. There was a bit of panic at the open and the buyers hesitated at first, but we held steady all morning and that was all they needed to inch in later in the day and produce a strong finish. The indices were mixed and breadth negative, but given how extended we were, it is impressive that we held up so well and the selling was so contained.
This morning Google (GOOG) is helping to keep the quick bounce going. GOOG generally doesn't create much broad market sympathy with its report, but this morning there is hope once again for another Europe-is-saved rally, and the dip buyers who weren't fast enough yesterday are worried this market might run away without them. It was a solid report and that is helping the mood ahead of the reports to come in the next few weeks.
From a trading standpoint, it would be much easier if the market pulled back deeper and consolidated a bit before turning back up, but the market never wants to make things easy. Too many market players are looking for exactly that sort of action, but they are so tired of being left behind when the market runs straight up that they never give it time to develop.
An added complexity is the start of earnings season. Tuesday night in particular will be interesting when Apple (AAPL) and Intel (INTC) report. INTC's earnings have often marked a turning point in the market action, and AAPL is probably the most important stock in the market.
After the run-up we've had this week, conditions are good for a sell-the-news reaction if reports aren't extremely good, but as we are seeing this morning from GOOG, extended stocks can keep on running on solid numbers. We'll see how well GOOG holds its gains, but I'd be surprised if it doesn't have very solid underlying support.
The biggest challenge for technical traders is that the action hasn't helped to create solid, buyable charts. It has been the primary dilemma of this market since the low in March 2009 and it doesn't look like it is going to change today. If you want to put money to work, you need to force it. Many folks are doing just that, which is why the charts never have time to develop well.
Watch for the bears to fade the gap-up open, but I expect the dip buyers to provide plenty of support. Unless we have some surprise negative news, I don't expect any major downside in the near term.
Treasury Secretary Geithner says economic data has been more encouraging recently, and concerns over the summer about a much weaker growth outcome have receded a bit