Eilne päevalõpu ralli tugeva käibega on loonud päris huvitava graafiku. Nii-öelda kolmikpõhju väga tihti ei esine, kuid päevasisene ümberpöördumine -4% pealt, sellele järgnev tugev ralli +6% peale koos võimsa käibega kehvade initial claims numbrite järel annab lootust tõusu jätkuks küll.
Ja ei tasu ära unustada, et nädalavahetuse peale on planeeritud G-20 suurriikide juhtide koosviibimine leidmaks lahendust maailma tabanud finantskriisile.
Nööri GMi tavaaktsionäride kõri ümber tõmmatakse üha koomamale:
Financial Times reports General Motors (GM) and Ford (F) have been given a potentially devastating vote of no confidence by three big European credit insurers, which have removed cover from their suppliers. The withdrawal of credit insurance -- which covered suppliers against the risk of the car companies' failing -- has previously hastened the demise of a string of European companies, with suppliers to retailers and construction companies finding cover increasingly hard to come by. Euler Hermes, Atradius or Coface, which control more than 80% of the world's credit insurance market, are refusing to write policies for suppliers trading with GM or Ford on credit. GM and Ford are two of the biggest groups ever to be blacklisted. The cut-off of cover will primarily affect the companies' large operations in Europe, where the insurers do the bulk of their business. Ford and GM will be two of the largest companies to have seen their coverage terminated this way. Euler Hermes has gradually reduced cover for suppliers trading with the two companies over the past three to six months, the insurer confirmed on Thursday.
Paljudel hedge-fondidel on USAs kolme kuune etteteatamistähtaeg raha fondist välja tõmbamiseks (ehk raha aasta lõpus kättesaamiseks tuli soovist teada anda 30. spetembril). Osadel on see aga lühem ning see laupäev on investoritele viimane päev tagasivõtmissoovist teatamiseks seoses mitmesaja riskimaandusfondiga.
momentum, minu teada ongi hedge fund tööstusharus kaks niinimetatud D-day kuupäeva. Üheks on 3 kuud enne kvartalilõppu (ehk siis kui soovid raha kätte saada 31. dets, pead avalduse esitama kõige hiljemalt 30. sept) ning teine kuupäev on 1.5 kuud enne kvartalilõppu (ehk avaldus tuleb esitada 15. nov). Konkreetne kuupäev konkreetsel fondil sõltub juba sellest, mis fondi prospekti sisse on kirjutatud.
Nokia (NOK) teeb turgudele täna hommikul külma duši.
Q4 outlook: Nokia now expects that the industry mobile device volumes will be lower in the fourth quarter 2008 than previously expected. NOK now estimates fourth quarter 2008 industry mobile device volumes will be approximately 330 million. This is sequentially up from the estimated 310 million in the third quarter of 2008. This would result in a current estimate of industry mobile volume of 1.24 billion in 2008, instead of the earlier estimated 1.26 billion units, up from 1.14 billion units Nokia estimated for 2007; Nokia continues to expect its mobile device market share in the fourth quarter 2008 to be at the same level or slightly up, sequentially. This expectation is based on co's current view, external market data and the overall competitiveness of its device portfolio; Nokia expects that Devices & Services sales and profitability in the fourth quarter 2008 will be negatively impacted, due to the aforementioned factors. FY09 outlook: Nokia's preliminary estimate is that the industry mobile device volumes will be down in 2009 compared to 2008, impacted by the continuing overall economic slowdown; Nokia and Nokia Siemens Networks preliminary estimate is that the mobile infrastructure and fixed infrastructure and related services market will be down in euro terms in 2009 compared to 2008.
Väikese hilinemisega siia ka Sharki kommentaar tänase turu alguses:
Can the Bulls Press Their Advantage? By Rev Shark RealMoney.com Contributor 11/14/2008 7:59 AM EST
No one will persist long in helping someone who will not help themselves. -- Sal Chaudhry
The market delivered a picture-perfect intraday reversal Thursday. After breaching a key support level on the S&P 500 and triggering stops set at the annual lows, we had a massive reversal and went straight back up on big volume and great breadth. That is exactly the sort of washout and reversal you want to see to indicate that we have made a bottom.
So it's an excellent start, but we have seen these sorts of giant, frantic reversals several times in the last month or so, and they have very quickly fizzled out. The bulls simply refused to persist with any real buying. The flippers and trapped longs started looking for exit points, and before you knew it, we were quickly slipping lower and the huge day of buying was quickly forgotten.
There is no big secret as to what this market needs -- it needs some confident and persist buyers. We can afford to pull back some and to consolidate the big gains from yesterday, but we need underlying support and some evidence that buyers really do want to start accumulating stocks.
One of the positives we have going for us is seasonality. We are now entering what is typically the best time of the year for stocks. If the bulls are going to get something going, now is the time to start laying the foundation.
The big problem that remains is that the news out there about the economy and are financial problems is horrible. At best we are hoping the market has already anticipated much of the worst and has priced it in. I'm not at all comfortable with that argument given that we still have no clue what is going on with TARP, economic stimulation, the automakers and so many other things. With the presidency in a state flux until Jan. 20, there is going to be a lot of uncertainty.
So the bulls have an opportunity now, and we should give them the benefit of the doubt. We will know soon enough if this is the real deal or just another short-lived bear-market spike. In the early going we are pulling back a bit, but nothing too dramatic so far. The news flow isn't too interesting. We have retail sales reports coming up, but mostly the bulls will be on their own to continue to build on yesterday.
Telemeedia on tänase hommikuse languse kurjajuure juba üles leidnud ning väidetavalt on selleks enne turgu avaldatud oodatust nõrgem jaemüügiraport, kus läbimüük vähenes oktoobris -2.8%. Mäletatavasti ju naisteriideid müüv bebe Stores teatas, et oktoobris langesid SSSid -20% ning sarnaste teadetega on ka teised jaemüügiettevõtted hiljuti üles astunud. Seega see -2.8%line näit ei ole küll enam mingi üllatus ning seda näitab ka asjaolu, et teate väljatulemisel futuurid sellele õieti ei reageerinudki. Aga meedial on juba selline komme, et alati on ju vaja langus millegi kaela määrida...
ja need, kes ühtegi 10% rallit ei kasuta müümiseks, isegi miinus positsiooni müümiseks, neil on ikka eriti raske järgmise peva -10% seedida. Ootan usa uusi madalamaid
Mul on sügavalt kopp ees sellest, kuidas meedia nii meil kui mujal üritab mingite täiesti tehniliste liikumiste selgituseks alati mingeid kaheksandajärgulisi uudiseid tuua.
