Moodys, S&P ja Fitch on kinnitanud, et ABK poolt kaastatud $1.5 miljardiline lisakapital on piisav säilitamaks AAA reitingut ning on seniks lõpetanud reitingu võimaliku langetamise läbivaatamise.
TMA poolt päeva alguseks veidi murelik algus:
Thornburg Mortg discloses notice of event of default from Morgan Stanley after failing to meet a margin call of approximately $9 mln.
Euroopa börsid alustasid väga nõrgalt, suuremad indeksid 2% languses.
EUR teeb USD vastu jätkuvalt uusi tippe ning toornafta futuurid püsivad kübeke alla $110 usd. Futuurid indikeerivad turgudele avanemist altppoolt.
Täna enne turge 14.30 avaldatakse mitmed makronäitajad, millest olulisemad oleks jaekaupade müüginumbrid, impordi indeks ja töötuabiraha taotlejate arv.
Euroopa on viinud langusesse Carlyle Capital Corp, kellel tõsised likviidsusprobleemid ning ei suutnud refinantseeringu osas investoritega kokkuleppele jõuda. Fondi varad külmutatakse pankade poolt.
TMA on viimasel ajal kauplejatele palju võimalusi pakkunud ning hetkel väga suur osa spekulatiivsel rahal. TA poole pealt võiks huvi pakkuda, kuid risk on väga suur.
Futuurid langevad koos USD aina sügavamale punasesse ning toornafta hind püsib samuti rekordite lähedal. Turu algus tõotab tulla väga punane, kui makronäitajatest üllatusi ei tule.
USA-s langes kodude sundäravõtmiseks tehtavate taotluste arv veebruaris -4% võrreldes jaanuariga, kuid on eelmisest aastast +60% üleval.
Credit Suisse on tõstnud Venemaa piimatootja Wimm-Bill-Danni (WBD) soovitust neutraalselt "outperformi" peale.
Senine euro rekord dollari vastu tehti täna kell 11.12.26 Eesti aja järgi, mil ühe euro eest sai $1.5628 ehk Eesti rahas pidi ühe dollari eest välja käima 10.01 Eesti krooni. Dollar on tegemas ajaloolisi või vähemalt viimase 10-15 aasta põhjasid mitmete rahvusvaheliste valuutade vastu. Odavnev dollar võiks aga varsti taas aktsiaturgudele kohale meelitada odavkauba järele õngitsevaid suurinvestoreid, sest ülevõtud Ameerika turgudelt on eurooplaste või asiaatide jaoks sõna otseses mõttes iga päevaga odavamaks muutumas.
Teisalt jälle võimendusega hedge-fondide positsioonide jätkuv likvideerimine, millest ka mõned päevad tagasi rääkisin, muudab turu liikumise lähipäevadel närviliseks ühele poole/teisele poole köieveoks.
'No country for old men'/retail:
Retail Sales ex-auto -0.2% vs +0.2% consensus, prior month revised to +0.5% from +0.3%
Retail Sales -0.6% vs +0.2% consensus, prior revised to +0.4% from +0.3%
Retail Sales ex-auto -0.2% vs +0.2% consensus, prior month revised to +0.5% from +0.3%
Retail Sales -0.6% vs +0.2% consensus, prior revised to +0.4% from +0.3%
USD tugevneb hoopis selle data peale ... nii et mine võta kinni kas see nii halb ongi
Henno - ilmselt on asi ka selles, et reaalselt ei ole nõrgad jaemüüginäitajad enam uudiseks. Ei saa lihtsalt olla. Samamoodi nagu hapusid kinnisvaranumbreid enam ei vaadata. Uudisega on tegu alles siis, kui oodatust halvema numbri asemel tuleb ootustele vastav või (silmad kinni ütlen välja) kunagi ka ootusi ületav number.
Turgudele võib tuua leevendust Henry Paulsoni poolt uute strateegiate tutvustus:
Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson will unveil later Thursday new plans to strengthen federal oversight of the mortgage and credit markets, in the first federal regulatory response aimed at the roots of the financial market turmoil that has roiled Wall Street for the last seven months.
Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson will unveil later Thursday new plans to strengthen federal oversight of the mortgage and credit markets, in the first federal regulatory response aimed at the roots of the financial market turmoil that has roiled Wall Street for the last seven months.
siin tuli ka muud datat, mis turule ilmselt meeldis - initial claims inline ja import prices ka mitte liiga kole
Punk Ziegel langetab Wachovia hinnasihti $34 ning kärbib prognoose, põhjendade seda lisamahakannete ja raske majandusolukorraga.
Saksamaa DAX -2.31%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 -2.49%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 -1.90%
Hispaania IBEX -1.38%
Venemaa MICEX -1.07%
Poola WIG -2.49%
Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 -3.07%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng -4.79%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) -2.43%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) -2.24%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq -1.50%
Tai Set -1.74%
India Sensex -4.78%
Bad News Isn't This Market's Problem
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
3/13/2008 9:16 AM EDT
The obstacle is the path.
--Zen Saying
After a powerful surge on Tuesday that held the seeds of more promising action, the market is struggling to overcome a steady supply of obstacles. The issue this morning is the continued pounding of the dollar, which is hitting record lows against the yen and euro and is helping drive crude oil and gold to new highs. In addition, a large hedge fund, Carlyle Capital, expects that its lenders will seize its assets and force its liquidation, renewing fear of chaos in the credit markets.
On Tuesday, the market was cheering Fed efforts to increase liquidity in the credit markets. We were so oversold, all it took was a spark of good news to ignite the biggest rally in five years. However, doubts immediately crept in about how much impact this move really would have in the face of howling winds of economic problems. Still, many were hopeful that we could see some follow through, and the indices held up fairly well, despite a fade late in the day.
This morning the news environment is once again undermining the fledging technical positives. There is just too much bad news out there that has not been fully discounted by this market.
The problem for this market is not that we continue to see bad news, but that the bad news has not been better anticipated and more fully discounted. The market can deal with obstacles easily when they are well understand and expected. Unfortunately, that is not the case in the current environment. We are being blindsided, as problems that we have some sense of but haven't fully appreciated blossom into even more dire issues.
The problem isn't only that the news is poor, but that it kills market sentiment. The despair that occurs in a bear market comes when hope is reignited after a day like Tuesday and then crushed on a morning like this when doom and gloom takes hold again.
Market players quickly grow weary and discouraged when their attempts to be more optimistic about the market are treated so harshly. This is what leads to people giving up and not trying anymore. They want to just go to cash and stay there. This morning's AAII poll is confirming this very poor sentiment, which shows only 20% bullishness and 59% bearishness.
This sort of despair will ultimately lead to a bottom, but trying to guess when is a difficult and dangerous task. We simply need to recognize the fact that the market is stuck in a downtrend and that it is going to take much time before it will conquer its obstacles.
-----------------------------
Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: EFUT +19.0%, WX +19.0%, INSW +7.1%, TBSI +6.4%, AIRM +4.8%, AKNS +4.3%, OME +3.6%, MEI +3.2%, INOD +2.9%, AFCE +2.9%, GEOY +2.7%, BMTI +2.2%, TRGL +2.1%, ENG +1.8%, HRLY +1.7%, SURW +1.4%, BNE +1.1%, BVF +1.1%... M&A news: TTWO +2.8% (ERTS's offers to acquire all of Take-Two's outstanding shares for $26 each)... Select gold stocks showing strength on higher spot prices: GFI +1.8%, GOLD +1.7%, GLD +1.2%, AEM +1.1%, ABX +1.1%, NEM +1.0%... Other news: GMO +4.2% (announces that it, through its 80% owned subsidiary Eureka Moly, has placed orders for two 44 cubic-yard P&H 2800XPC Shovels from P&H Mining Equipment), UN +2.3% (still checking), QGEN +2.0% (still checking), CMTL +1.9% (receives $1.3 mln in satellite communications equipment orders for GSM backhaul network in Africa)... Analyst upgrades: GSIC +5.5% (upgraded to Buy at Jefferies), MLNM +2.3% (upgraded to Outperform at Piper), CRL +1.4% (upgraded to Buy at tier 1 firm).
Allapoole avanevad:
downgraded to Sell at Merrill), SIGM -12.9% (also downgraded to Hold at BWS Financial), NOVN -11.7%, MW -10.4%, NGAS -8.6%, HOTT -6.0%, NL -5.0%, JAS -4.8%, DNDN -3.2%... Select financial names showing weakness: BSC -4.5%, C -2.8%, UBS -2.6%, ING -2.6%, CS -2.3%, BAC -2.2%, MER -1.9%, BCS -1.8% GS -1.8%... Select chinese names trading lower following weakness in overseas trading: CN -5.5%, CEO -5.3%, ACH -4.5%, PTR -4.4%, BIDU -2.9%, LFC -1.9%, SNP -1.2%... Select solar stocks showing weakness: AKNS -10.8% (also signs manufacturing partnership with Kyocera), YGE -4.6%, CSIQ -4.4%, SPWR -4.2%, STP -3.6% (also Nitol Solar and Suntech announce strategic investment), FSLR -2.9%, ESLR -2.8%... Other news: ATAR -34.0% (hired a financial advisor to help evaluate the proposal by Infogrames Entertainment to acquire the co for $1.68 a share), SUF -26.8% (discloses subpoena from the SEC), TMA -15.8% (discloses notice of event of default from Morgan Stanley after failing to meet a margin call of approximately $9 mln), FMT -12.7% (announces regulatory approval to appoint new directors of Fremont Investment & Loan), DRYS -6.3% and DSX -5.2% (still checking), CFC -5.3% (Fitch lowers CFC IDR to 'BBB-' from 'BBB+', on positive watch AND reports February 2008 operational results ), FRE -3.7% (still checking), BG -2.3% (won't proceed with debt offering, postponed due to 'unfavorable' market conditions - Bloomberg), GE -1.5% (may buy $10 billion of Japan property as crunch spurs sales - Bloomberg.com), MT -1.4% (still checking), NOK -1.4% (court papers claim $1 billion Qualcomm payments - Reuters.com)... Analyst downgrades: NOVN -11.7% (downgraded to Sell at Soleil), AIG -3.8% (downgraded to Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley), FTO -2.6% (hearing removed from Conviction Buy List at tier 1 firm)
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
3/13/2008 9:16 AM EDT
The obstacle is the path.
--Zen Saying
After a powerful surge on Tuesday that held the seeds of more promising action, the market is struggling to overcome a steady supply of obstacles. The issue this morning is the continued pounding of the dollar, which is hitting record lows against the yen and euro and is helping drive crude oil and gold to new highs. In addition, a large hedge fund, Carlyle Capital, expects that its lenders will seize its assets and force its liquidation, renewing fear of chaos in the credit markets.
On Tuesday, the market was cheering Fed efforts to increase liquidity in the credit markets. We were so oversold, all it took was a spark of good news to ignite the biggest rally in five years. However, doubts immediately crept in about how much impact this move really would have in the face of howling winds of economic problems. Still, many were hopeful that we could see some follow through, and the indices held up fairly well, despite a fade late in the day.
This morning the news environment is once again undermining the fledging technical positives. There is just too much bad news out there that has not been fully discounted by this market.
The problem for this market is not that we continue to see bad news, but that the bad news has not been better anticipated and more fully discounted. The market can deal with obstacles easily when they are well understand and expected. Unfortunately, that is not the case in the current environment. We are being blindsided, as problems that we have some sense of but haven't fully appreciated blossom into even more dire issues.
The problem isn't only that the news is poor, but that it kills market sentiment. The despair that occurs in a bear market comes when hope is reignited after a day like Tuesday and then crushed on a morning like this when doom and gloom takes hold again.
Market players quickly grow weary and discouraged when their attempts to be more optimistic about the market are treated so harshly. This is what leads to people giving up and not trying anymore. They want to just go to cash and stay there. This morning's AAII poll is confirming this very poor sentiment, which shows only 20% bullishness and 59% bearishness.
This sort of despair will ultimately lead to a bottom, but trying to guess when is a difficult and dangerous task. We simply need to recognize the fact that the market is stuck in a downtrend and that it is going to take much time before it will conquer its obstacles.
-----------------------------
Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: EFUT +19.0%, WX +19.0%, INSW +7.1%, TBSI +6.4%, AIRM +4.8%, AKNS +4.3%, OME +3.6%, MEI +3.2%, INOD +2.9%, AFCE +2.9%, GEOY +2.7%, BMTI +2.2%, TRGL +2.1%, ENG +1.8%, HRLY +1.7%, SURW +1.4%, BNE +1.1%, BVF +1.1%... M&A news: TTWO +2.8% (ERTS's offers to acquire all of Take-Two's outstanding shares for $26 each)... Select gold stocks showing strength on higher spot prices: GFI +1.8%, GOLD +1.7%, GLD +1.2%, AEM +1.1%, ABX +1.1%, NEM +1.0%... Other news: GMO +4.2% (announces that it, through its 80% owned subsidiary Eureka Moly, has placed orders for two 44 cubic-yard P&H 2800XPC Shovels from P&H Mining Equipment), UN +2.3% (still checking), QGEN +2.0% (still checking), CMTL +1.9% (receives $1.3 mln in satellite communications equipment orders for GSM backhaul network in Africa)... Analyst upgrades: GSIC +5.5% (upgraded to Buy at Jefferies), MLNM +2.3% (upgraded to Outperform at Piper), CRL +1.4% (upgraded to Buy at tier 1 firm).
Allapoole avanevad:
downgraded to Sell at Merrill), SIGM -12.9% (also downgraded to Hold at BWS Financial), NOVN -11.7%, MW -10.4%, NGAS -8.6%, HOTT -6.0%, NL -5.0%, JAS -4.8%, DNDN -3.2%... Select financial names showing weakness: BSC -4.5%, C -2.8%, UBS -2.6%, ING -2.6%, CS -2.3%, BAC -2.2%, MER -1.9%, BCS -1.8% GS -1.8%... Select chinese names trading lower following weakness in overseas trading: CN -5.5%, CEO -5.3%, ACH -4.5%, PTR -4.4%, BIDU -2.9%, LFC -1.9%, SNP -1.2%... Select solar stocks showing weakness: AKNS -10.8% (also signs manufacturing partnership with Kyocera), YGE -4.6%, CSIQ -4.4%, SPWR -4.2%, STP -3.6% (also Nitol Solar and Suntech announce strategic investment), FSLR -2.9%, ESLR -2.8%... Other news: ATAR -34.0% (hired a financial advisor to help evaluate the proposal by Infogrames Entertainment to acquire the co for $1.68 a share), SUF -26.8% (discloses subpoena from the SEC), TMA -15.8% (discloses notice of event of default from Morgan Stanley after failing to meet a margin call of approximately $9 mln), FMT -12.7% (announces regulatory approval to appoint new directors of Fremont Investment & Loan), DRYS -6.3% and DSX -5.2% (still checking), CFC -5.3% (Fitch lowers CFC IDR to 'BBB-' from 'BBB+', on positive watch AND reports February 2008 operational results ), FRE -3.7% (still checking), BG -2.3% (won't proceed with debt offering, postponed due to 'unfavorable' market conditions - Bloomberg), GE -1.5% (may buy $10 billion of Japan property as crunch spurs sales - Bloomberg.com), MT -1.4% (still checking), NOK -1.4% (court papers claim $1 billion Qualcomm payments - Reuters.com)... Analyst downgrades: NOVN -11.7% (downgraded to Sell at Soleil), AIG -3.8% (downgraded to Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley), FTO -2.6% (hearing removed from Conviction Buy List at tier 1 firm)
täna nagu saaks ka sirfi veel võtta, mis arvate?või oodata veel...
Realmoney'st hedge-fondide likvideerimise juttude kohta:
New York-based hedge fund Drake Capital Management, which manages nearly $5 billion in hedge fund assets, is reportedly considering the liquidation of all three of its main hedge funds.
On Stockpickr.com we just recently updated Drake Capital's portfolio. Its largest holdings include Airtan (AA), Microsoft (MSFT) and Altria (MO).
Chances are that a few stocks in that portfolio are going to get grossly oversold if the fund were to liquidate
New York-based hedge fund Drake Capital Management, which manages nearly $5 billion in hedge fund assets, is reportedly considering the liquidation of all three of its main hedge funds.
On Stockpickr.com we just recently updated Drake Capital's portfolio. Its largest holdings include Airtan (AA), Microsoft (MSFT) and Altria (MO).
Chances are that a few stocks in that portfolio are going to get grossly oversold if the fund were to liquidate