Eile Las Vegases toimunud SunPoweri (SPWRA) investorite päeva järel on analüüsimajade nägemused suhteliselt erinevad.
Jeffiries soovitab aktsiat jätkuvalt osta, hinnasihiks $60. Nende meelest on tegu tööstuse ühe parima aktsiaga, millele lisas tuge juhtkonna kindlus 2009. aasta kasumiprognoosi täitmisel.
Citi tunnistab aktsia atraktiivsust pikaajalise sihiga investori jaoks, kuid lühiajaliselt nähakse müügisurve jätkumist. Citi hinnasiht on $30, aktsia kaupleb $28.8 lähedal. Muret tuntakse marginaalide ning 2009. aasta esimese poole EPSi pärast.
Sarnaselt Citiga usub Morgan Stanley, et nõrgast tsüklist väljub SunPower tänu efektiivsetele toodetele, madalale laenukoormale ning suurte projektide kogemusele võitjana. Samas lähituleviku riskid on tõusnud ning MSi meelest hindab SunPower lõpptarbija nõudlust üle. Aktsiale antud hinnasiht lühiajalisi riski siiski ei peegelda, Morgan Stanley ootab aktsia liikumist $100 juurde.
Deutsche Bank soovitab aktsiat hoida, hinnasihiks $45. Tuntakse murest krediidikriisi ning lõpptarbija nõudluse kadumise pärast.
Kokkuvõttes investorite päev põhjust aktsia trendi muutuseks ei pakkunud, samas on septembri $100 juurest langetud tänaseks alla $30. Aktsia volatiilsus on seega garanteeritud, kuid uue tõusutsükli algust veel ei loodaks.
Osaliselt peaks JASO aktsia euro langusest tuleneva negatiivse efekti juba sisse arvestanud olema, SPWRA eelmise nädala guidance aitas sellele kindlasti kaasa. Aga jah, nii nõrka 4Q'd ei oodanud keegi.
Doom all over again... Igasugunegi futuuripluss on praeguseks hetkeks maa alla tambitud ning tasapisi hakkab tekkima tunne, et allasuunalised futuurigraafikud tahavad teispool maakera Uus-Meremaa kandis arvutist uuesti alles välja tulla. Nii nafta kui ka aktsiaindeksid -1.5%.
Madise hommikusele kommentaarile päikesepaneelide osas siia lisaks veel:
DigiTimes reports the price level of a 6-inch solar-grade silicon wafer in the spot market stands at $9 currently, dropping by 10-14.3% from $10-10.5 quoted in October 2008, according to industry sources in Taiwan. The price drop is mainly because the global demand for solar cells has turned slack for the time being since Spain's incentive program expired at the end of September 2008, the sources pointed out. Before the end of September 2008, spot market quotes for such wafers had once climbed to $11-12.5, the sources indicated. Several small makers of 6-inch solar-grade silicon wafers in China have offered prices of lower than US$9 in the spot market, but the product quality may be an issue, the sources noted. As $9 is still higher than but close to existing contract prices of 6-inch solar-grade silicon wafers, Taiwan-based makers of crystalline silicon solar cells may ask for re-negotiation of such contract prices if spot market prices further slip, the sources pointed out.
rams, aga kas praegu on käimas Suur Depressioon (minu teada praegu suurriikide SKPd üle paari protsendi miinuses ei ole ning mitmed Aasia riigid näitavad veel ka 5+%lisi kasve) ning kas hinnatasemed olid enne Suure Depressiooni kukkumist ja praeguse kukkumise eel samadel tasemetel?
Know Your Style By Rev Shark RealMoney.com Contributor 11/12/2008 8:16 AM EST
The weak have one weapon: the errors of those who think they are strong. -- George Bidault
The market doesn't get much worse than the one we are presently experiencing. The action is volatile and random, the technical patterns are poor at best, there is no individual stock leadership or setups, and we are oversold and negative enough that some sort of technical bounce of limited duration is a probability.
I have to admit that I really dislike this market right now because I just can't do very much given my investing style. The best trades right now are extremely short-term trades triggered by news events or psychology. Charts are meaningless and time frames can't extend beyond a day.
The best positive trades have been shorts like 3M (MMM) which was my Stock of the Week, but with the crazy swings this market has had in the final hour of trading, you can't just sit there or you will quickly see your gains wiped out.
As far as I'm concerned, this market is practically untradeable at present. There is no way I would be building longer-term positions within this major downtrend, and we can't even seem to get a decent countertrend bounce going. If the only trades we see are for a time frame of less than a day, I'm simply not going to do much.
What is really important for market players in an environment like this is to make sure they know who they are. The market is not going to bail you out of your mistakes like it might when conditions are better, so you better be very clear as to your style and time frames. If they aren't working, then embrace that fact and don't keep pushing.
The temptation in this market is to do things you don't normally do. For example, I'm seeing plenty of momentum traders contemplating bottom-fishing plays because they simply can't find any upside momentum or strong charts. There is nothing wrong with that as long as you are clear as to what you are doing, and you stay disciplined. The worst thing you can do is suddenly become a "value" buyer and allow yourself to rack up a bunch of losses because you throw money management out the window.
So here we are with a weak bounce to start the morning and some mixed news dribbling in. Overseas markets were mixed, with Asia down a bit and Europe up a little. Oil and gold are lower and the news is mostly about trying to save the automakers.
I think it can be summed up in a single world: blah. ----------------------------- Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: MELI +12.8%, CNQR +8.4% (also upgraded to Buy at MKM Partners), M +5.0% (light volume), RAH +2.4%, KHD +2.2%... Other news: GM +16.8% (still checking for anything specific), ME +5.1% (will replace Cephalon in the S&P MidCap 400), SAP +4.7% (still checking), CEPH +3.5% (will be added to the S&P 500), TOT +2.0% (still checking), FMCN +1.9% (modestly rebounding following yesterday's 40%+ drop), EMR +1.8% and NAT +1.2% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: JASO -25.1%, NTY -14.4%, GU -12.9%, IPI -12.6%, BBY -12.5%, BOBE -10.6% (also downgraded to Neutral at MKM Partners), DSX -7.4%, HOLX -7.2%, ING -4.3%... Select financials showing continued weakness: BCS -8.4%, AZ -6.7%, AXP -5.5% (said to request $3.5 bln in U.S. aid - WSJ), DB -3.8%, ABB -3.1%, MS -3.1%, BAC -1.9%, C -1.9%, GS -1.6% (target lowered to $108 from $113 at Deutsche Securities and target lowered to $70 at Ladenburg Thalmann), JPM -1.2%... Select solar stocks trading lower following JASO results: CSIQ -6.2%, YGE -5.0%, SOLF -4.6%, FSLR -4.5%, LDK -4.4%, STP -2.9%, SOL -2.2%... Select oil/gas names showing weakness with crude making new 20 month low: STO -4.5%, BP -3.1%, PBR -2.9%, RDS.A -1.7%, TOT 2.0%... Select drybulk shippers trading lower following DSX results: EGLE -7.6% (downgraded to Underperform at Merrill), DRYS -4.9%, EXM -2.1%... Select metals/mining names showing weakness with lower spot prices: AAUK -9.2%, GOLD -3.8%, RIO -3.0%, MT -2.4%, BHP -1.3%, ... Other news: PLD -17.0% (announces CEO resignation and strategic initiatives to address market conditions), RSH -8.1% (down in sympathy with BBY), NOK -3.6% (still checking), TCK -2.6% (Teck Cominco's debt dilemma - Globe and Mail), GOOG -2.4% (price tgt cut to $465 from $525 at Collins Stewart due to CPC pressure dilemma and tgt cut to $450 at Citigroup), AAPL -2.3% (RBC is reducing FY10 iPhone ests on macro headwinds)... Analyst comments: ARO -5.0% (downgraded to Sell at Brean Murray), SLH -1.9% (downgraded to Neutral at SunTrust), BRCM -1.0% (downgraded to Underweight at Morgan Stanley), ALTR -1.0% (downgraded to Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley).
natuke hullem kui suur deprekas, sest paljud on vee all ja läheb veel sundlikvideerimiseks ei kesta kaua vast aga järsk puhastustuli teeb oma töö kiirelt ja põhjalikult
rams, Suure Depressiooni ajal tapeti tänavatel inimesi leiva pärast. Ei tule nagu kuidagi tuttav ette praeguses olukorras. Vaata leivasabade pilti siit,siit või siit.
Ma arvan, et peaks vist hoopis ühe reisi tegema. Mõnda ägedasse kohta. Nii tulebki veel deprekas peale kui iga päev tund tunnilt lugeda kuidas kõik p*ersse kukub. Las siis kukub seni kuni meel lahutatud saab. Äkki keegi soovitaks euroopa piires midagi. Midagi, mis börsi ja selle langemist järjepidevalt ei meenutaks :)
