Börsipäev 12. jaanuar

Baltic Morning News

PTA aims for 400 stores. The Estonian lingerie/clothing retailer PTA reaffirmed its plans for the coming years. If currently the company operates 51 stores, it plans to double the number by the end of the year. Main markets for the expansion are Russia, Belarus, Ukraine and the Baltics. Going forward, plans are even more ambitious. By 2010, the number of stores is expected to reach 400. This means that within three years, the company plans to open 300 stores, i.e. roughly one store after every three days for three years in a row. At this point, I would be rather sceptical.

Apranga´s (Acc.) plans for Latvia. The Lithuanian clothing retailer Apranga said it planned to open 8 new stores in Riga (of which 2 Zara, 2 Bershka, and 2 Pull and Bear stores). Currently, the company has 15 stores in Latvia which generated sales of LTL 70.7m (EUR 20.5m) in 2006, up 46.6% y-o-y. The total number of stores at the end of last year was 65.

Solid result from Lithuanian dairy. The Lithuanian dairy Vilkyskiu pienine posted sales of LTL 116m in 2006, equal to y-o-y increase of 28%. This is another sign that Lithuanian dairy industry is doing quite well.

Economic growth to slow. According to forecasts by Estonian Institute of Market Research, Estonia's economic growth, the second-fastest in the EU, will slow this year. The key factor in growth slowdown was said to be labour shortage (jobless rate decreased nearly 50% in 2006) which will start affecting the companies' output. The estimated growth for 2007 is 9% (11% in 2006).

Budget surplus bigger than expected. According to initial figures of the Ministry of Finance, Estonian state budget revenues increased 22.2% to EUR 4.33b in 2006 while public expenditure increased 18.8% to EUR 4.0b - i.e. surplus was EUR 0.33b. Given that economic expansion has shown signs of overheating, it is probably good idea to have some backup for worse times.

Biggest wage gap in Estonia. Out of all EU, the wage difference between men and women was the biggest in Estonia (to be exact, Estonia shares the first place with Cyprus). According to Eurostat, an average Estonian man earned ca EUR 640 per month in 2005, while an average woman got just EUR 480 (corresponds to ca 25% difference). This is also the biggest figure for Estonia in this century.

Eile teatas Six Flags (SIX) seitsme pargi müügist ning taas ühines firma CEO Shapiro Crameriga viimase teleshows. Täna annab firma konverentsikõne ning seal lubatakse lähemalt tutvustada prognoose ja plaane aastaks 2007. Lähipäevadel kommenteerime kindlasti ka Pro all toimunut.

Mad Money:

Mark Shapiro, the CEO of Six Flags, joined Cramer on the show, and Cramer congratulated him for selling seven of his company's theme parks in a $312 million deal.

Now, with gas down "gigantically," Cramer asked Shapiro what this might do for Six Flags.

It is going to be "fantastic" for business, Shapiro responded. He said that Six Flags is going to have a "solid" year and that the early season indicators have been very "strong."

Shapiro said he understands that his company has a lot to prove, but he is confident that Six Flags "is going to earn itself a new reputation."

Cramer said Six Flags is another $5 to $6 stock that he believes viewers should add to their speculation baskets.

AMD warned its profit and revenue will be lower than expected in the fourth quarter as its price war with Intel intensified.
http://online.wsj.com/public/us?refresh=on
AMD-ga on tõesti halvad lood. Kui enne kahetuumaliste tulekut võis veel AMD konkureerivaks Inteliga nimetada, siis praegu on kaalukauss tugevalt Inteli kasuks pöördunud. Ei näe ühtki põhjust, miks praegu peaks üks uue arvuti soetaja AMD protessoriga masinat valima.

State Farm Loses Katrina Claim Case. A jury awarded $2.5 million in punitive damages against State Farm Fire and Casualty Co. for a Mississippi couple for denying their Hurricane Katrina claim.

See otsus võib paljudele kindlustajatele väga kalliks minna...

Praegu ei tundugi olevat asi pigem niivõrd AMD vs Intel kuivõrd probleemid nõudlusega(varudega) ja hinnasõda.
AMD probleem pigem suutmatus suuri koguseid tootjatele tagada.
AMD'l on tootmine kallim kui intelil ja kahjuks ei saadud ka uut 65nm proset heasse vormi.
Kui uus K8L sügisel välja ei tule ja vähemalt samal MHz'l inteliga ei konkureeri, siis võib AMD'l ikka kaunis raskeks minna... lisaks veel nvidia istub ATI'l tugevalt seljas ja sööb juba mitmendat seeriat järjest mõnuga kesklassi turgu... seega AMD on järjekordselt sattunud raske pähkli otsa. Minu silmis piisab vaid intelil kogu turg core 2 põhjal prosedaga üleujutada ja ilmselt hakkab seejärel AMD turuosa vähenema.

SunTrust initiates Force Protection (FRPT 19.98) with a Buy and $31 tgt, as funding for MRAP vehicles is gaining significant momentum with an estimated $2 bln allocated in the proposed FY07 military supplemental budgets, and they believe FRPT is best positioned to benefit from this funding while the U.S. Marine Corps is expected to award a one year ID/IQ contract for u to 4,100 MRAP vehicles and FRPT stands to be a significant beneficiary.

Bear Stearns upgrades AstraZeneca (AZN 55.08) to Outperform from Peer Perform

Citigroup downgrades AMD (AMD 20.18) to Hold from Buy

BofA upgrades Anheuser-Busch (BUD 49.68) to Buy from Neutral

CIBC downgrades SAP (SAP 48.50) to Sector Perform from Outperform saying the magnitude of the licensing shortfall in seasonally strong 4Q, coupled with 2Q's miss, leave the firm increasingly concerned about SAP's ability to return to mid-teen license growth

JMP downgrades SAP AG (SAP 48.50) to Underperform from Market Perform with a $42 tgt following yesterdays guidance. The firm believes SAP's product message has become convoluted, Oracle has become a more formidable competitor, and SAP is struggling to adapt to new technologies like on demand and services-oriented architectures

CIBC downgrades Oracle (ORCL 17.39) to Sector Performer from Sector Outperformer, following SAP's shortfall, and believe this, coupled w/ a difficult May qrt comp for ORCL likely puts a ceiling on its valuation in the coming months

J.P Morgan downgrades Netflix (NFLX 24.24) to Neutral from Overweight...

JP Morgan downgrades Blockbuster (BBI 6.16) to Neutral from OverweightMorgan Stanley downgrades Sun Microsystems (SUNW 6.14) to Equal Weight from Overweight

Citigroup alustab meie söesektori lemmiku BTU katmist osta reitinguga ning $48 hinnasihiga. See äratab kindlasti tänasepäeva jooksul huvi. Tutvustame ettevõtet lähemalt ka LHV Pro all.

➤ Initiating coverage of BTU w/ 1H (Buy, High Risk) rating and $48/sh target.➤ Coal has suffered badly, with few tangible catalysts in sight. Negatives: Softspot prices; Rising utility stockpiles; Lower Natural Gas; Strong hydro/nucleargeneration; Falling SO2 credits; Higher mine production; Improving rails.➤ Yet, ingredients for recovery may loom. High cost mines shutting, with +20 mtt hreatened. US powergen may climb 1.5% with hydro lower. This could drivethe Coal burn +30 mt and pressure stockpiles. More than 30,000 MWof newCoal fired capacity by 2010. Longer term: IGCC and CTL technologies.➤ We see an oppty to buy the industry's best name, with sentiment at a low ebb. Catalysts: 80 mt growth; Excel acquis; 30% EBITDA growth in 2007/08.➤ EPS ests below consensus, due to acquis interest expense and exclusion of"recurring one time gains" from asset sales.➤ Valuing BTU on 8.0x EV/EBITDA, 10.0x P/OCF on 2008E, and DCF.

Natuke statistikat. Jaemüüginäitajad (ex-auto) ei olnud just kõige paremad:

Import Prices ex-oil +0.4%, prior +0.7%

Export Prices ex-ag +0.5%, prior +0.1%

Retail Sales +0.9% vs +0.7% consensus

Retail Sales ex-auto +1.0% vs +0.5% consensus

Bofa kommenteerib naftasektori teenindajaid ja puurijaid suhteliselt mahlaselt:

Color on Oilfield Services at BofA

Banc of America states that it is still too early to get more positive on the group as a whole. The US drilling cycle is rolling over after moving up for four and a half years, and to expect that an end to a 4.5 year cycle can be discounted in a week or two might be optimistic. Some may think this is all a head fake but they believe they will be proven wrong as the rig count continues to decline. Seasonally, the rig count has dropped 17 of the last 23 years for the first few months of the year, but only once in the last six years, so a return to historical seasonality could further spook some investors. Criteria for becoming more positive include: A few more weeks of the rig count declining, a few more earnings and price target downgrades, insight from a conference call or two and retesting the 2006 lows, with reality replacing the fears that caused them. Also note that historical seasonality favors late January to early February.

Huvitav on märkida, et viimase nädala jooksul on väga suur hulk analüütikutest muutunud naftasektori paljude esindajate suhtes aina negatiivsemaks ning OIH on muutunud naftahinna langusele immuunsemaks. Kuigi pikema perioodi osas võib Bofa'l õigus olla, võib naftahinna stabiliseerudes leida sektorist päris häid põrkemänge.

Lisaks: Conono Philips (COP) teatas miljardilisest aktsiate tagasiostuprogrammist.

Tänahommikune Insight to Wall Street ehk City Plaza Aimdused:

Eile teatas oma tulemused ja 2007. aasta kapitalikulutuste plaani Korea gigant Samsung. Loomulikult pööratakse nii olulise ettevõtte sõnadele palju tähelepanu. Mõningaid väljavõtteid:
- samsungi capex (capital expenditures, kapitalikulutused) 2007. aastaks ca $6,4 mld, kui sisse arvata tehas Austinis. Number tähendab paariprotsendist vähenemist võrreldes eelmise aastaga ja paistab jäävat pisut alla analüütikute ootusi. Suurt üllatust number siiski ei paku.
- capex on tugevasti kallutatud esimese poolaasta poole, ligi kaks kolmandikku capexist läheb käiku esimese poolaasta jooksul. Need orderid tehakse juba praegu.
- capexis on olulisim osa kulutused mälude sektoris, eriti just DRAM suunal. See kattub ka firma jutuga tugevast DRAM nõudlusest ja suhtelisest nõrgemast situatsioonist NAND mälude sektoris.

Küsimused: milliseid ettevõtted on kommentaaride poolt mõjutatavad? Kas on võimalik kommentaaridest leida mõni treid?
[16:13:18] takethatforever says: Mäguasjatootja RC2 Corp (RCRC) andis eile õhtul põhjaliku hoiatuse. Põhjuseks oodatust nõrgem müük ning suuremad toorainekulud. See on kaunis üllatav uudis, kuna paljud ootasid neljandast kvartalist viimaste aastate ühte parimat antud sektori jaoks. Pea kõik sektori tegijad on viimasel ajal hästi performinud.

Hetkel on veel ebaselge kas on tegemist sektoripõhise nõrkusega või ainult antud ettevõtet puudutavate probleemidega. Kas siinkohal oleks mõttekas lühikeseks müüa mõnda sama sektori tegijat? Miks?

----

Mänguasjatootja RC2 Corp (RCRC) andis eile õhtul põhjaliku hoiatuse. Põhjuseks oodatust nõrgem müük ning suuremad toorainekulud. See on kaunis üllatav uudis, kuna paljud ootasid neljandast kvartalist viimaste aastate ühte parimat antud sektori jaoks. Pea kõik sektori tegijad on viimasel ajal hästi performinud.

Hetkel on veel ebaselge, kas on tegemist sektoripõhise nõrkusega või ainult antud ettevõtet puudutavate probleemidega. Kas siinkohal oleks mõttekas lühikeseks müüa mõnda sama sektori tegijat? Millist? Miks?
Shark soovitab jätkuvalt ettevaatlik olla ning pikki positsioone vähendada. Sellise tõusuga, mida me suve keskpaigast alates oleme näinud, on ootused ka ettevõtete tulemuste osas vägagi kõrgele juba aetud ning väiksemgi vääratus maksab valusalt kätte.

The Market's Eyeing Your Profits

By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
1/12/2007 8:57 AM EST
Click here for more stories by Rev Shark

"Chance generally favors the prudent."

-- Joseph Joubert

The market delivered some solid gains yesterday, with the Nasdaq surge particularly impressive. The tech heavy index hit its highest level since early 2001 on heavy volume and good breadth. You really have to stretch to find anything negative about that action. It was a picture-perfect breakout to new highs and obviously upside momentum is strong.

It looks darn good and many market players are feeling downright giddy about it. It's a lot of fun riding this bull and racking up some gains but this is exactly the time when you should make sure you have a plan in place to take some profits into strength.

The key to market success isn't just picking good stocks -- it is managing the stocks you have in the right way. That means having a plan to make sure losses don't grow too much and that you take some profits when things are good. Right now things are good and the prudent money management move is to make sure you lock in some of the gains.

One emotional peculiarity of many investors is that they fear missing out on future gains more than they fear losing what they already have. They take for granted the fact that they are sitting on some good profits and instead focus on adding more. That isn't necessarily all bad since strong markets tend to keep on going and being too cautious too early can be costly.

Most of us would prefer to be part of the fun, and not be the guy sitting in the corner constantly moaning and groaning how disaster is right around the corner. When the markets are strong such worries and concerns can seem almost nonsensical. Who wants to sell when things are looking so good?

However, if you have been around the market for any length of time you know that the one great certainty is that things will shift at some point. Invariably you will end up kicking yourself for not timing the market and selling more aggressively when you had the chance. You are never going to time things just right but if you have tucked away some gains when things are euphoric and upbeat, it's guaranteed that you won't completely mess things up.

Selling into strength is a cheap form of insurance to guard against excessive greed. The market is pushing us very hard to be greedy right now and to try to make as much money as we can. It isn't that the market is some benevolent beast looking out for our wellbeing; it is setting us up so it can take our money. Make sure you take steps to guard against that.

We have a flat start this morning as a warning from AMD slows the technology sector and some profit-taking kicks in. Asia was hot overnight as the strong dollar helped exporters while Europe was mixed after the earnings warnings from SAP and AMD. Oil is bouncing a bit overall it is fairly quiet.
Tänahommikune Insight to Wall Street ehk City Plaza Aimdused:

Eile teatas oma tulemused ja 2007. aasta kapitalikulutuste plaani Korea gigant Samsung. Loomulikult pööratakse nii olulise ettevõtte sõnadele palju tähelepanu. Mõningaid väljavõtteid:
- samsungi capex (capital expenditures, kapitalikulutused) 2007. aastaks ca $6,4 mld, kui sisse arvata tehas Austinis. Number tähendab paariprotsendist vähenemist võrreldes eelmise aastaga ja paistab jäävat pisut alla analüütikute ootusi. Suurt üllatust number siiski ei paku.
- capex on tugevasti kallutatud esimese poolaasta poole, ligi kaks kolmandikku capexist läheb käiku esimese poolaasta jooksul. Need orderid tehakse juba praegu.
- capexis on olulisim osa kulutused mälude sektoris, eriti just DRAM suunal. See kattub ka firma jutuga tugevast DRAM nõudlusest ja suhtelisest nõrgemast situatsioonist NAND mälude sektoris.

Küsimused: milliseid ettevõtted on kommentaaride poolt mõjutatavad? Kas on võimalik kommentaaridest leida mõni treid?

----

Mänguasjatootja RC2 Corp (RCRC) andis eile õhtul põhjaliku hoiatuse. Põhjuseks oodatust nõrgem müük ning suuremad toorainekulud. See on kaunis üllatav uudis, kuna paljud ootasid neljandast kvartalist viimaste aastate ühte parimat antud sektori jaoks. Pea kõik sektori tegijad on viimasel ajal hästi performinud.

Hetkel on veel ebaselge, kas on tegemist sektoripõhise nõrkusega või ainult antud ettevõtet puudutavate probleemidega. Kas siinkohal oleks mõttekas lühikeseks müüa mõnda sama sektori tegijat? Millist? Miks?
Ülespoole avanevad:

NAPS +13% (to provide service for AOL Music), ANTP +12% (reports Q4), ASIA +10% (announces contract with China Unicom), OBCI +5.2% (extends recent momentum), INFA +3.9% (BofA says stock is best catalyst idea heading into Q4 earning reports), OI +4.8% (to review strategic alternatives), TS +3.9%, BBI +3.9% (Cramer bullish on Mad Money, stock up despite JP Morgan downgrade), GIGA +4.4% (extends yesterday's 21% move), LFC +3.3% (bounces after recent sell-off), MOBE +3.3% (extends yesterday's 12% move), INTU +3.2% (UBS upgrade), IGLD +3.1%, SAP +3.5% (bounces after 10% drop yesterday despite numerous downgrades today), TSM +2.7% (tech stocks strong in Asian trading), SSL +1.7% (ests cut at Citigroup - BloomBerg), LVLT +1.5% (agrees to exchange debt for equity)... Under $3: POTP +39% (positive Phase 2 data).

Allapoole avanevad:

AMD -7.6% (guides Q4 lower, multiple downgrades, Nollenberger cuts tgt to $8; down in sympathy: INTC -0.6%), RCRC -15% (reports Q4 revs below consensus, also downgrades from Baird and Soleil), CTEL -11.5% (profit taking after 69% move yesterday), POOL -10.4% (lowers guidance), CAMP -7.1% (reports NovQ, misses by $0.03), KRY -6.2% (continued weakness on Venezuela concerns), STEM -6.6% (Pres Bush says he'll veto recent stem cell bill; also GERN -2.3%), INWK -4.6%, IHS -3.4% (reports NovQ), BMY -3.1% (NY Times reports that 4 mos ago co all but said it was for sale, but no potential suitor has emerged at least not publicly. Instead, co has entered into several comparatively small deals), CVC -2.9% (Dolan family raises offer, but apparently not as much as investors had hoped), HTE -2.8%, MAMA -2.7% (profit taking after 14% move yesterday), SNP -2.5%, MUR -2.4% (provides Q4 guidance), JDAS -2.3% (guides Q4 revs below consensus), DENN -2.1% (downgrade at boutique firm), AGIX -2.1% (extends yesterday's 7% slide), ALU -1.7%, AAPL -1% (SEC scrutinizes option grant to Jobs - WSJ ).
BUY QI@13.90
damn, sry vale hinna eest (tasub üle kontrollida, et copy/paste-ga õige asi mälus oleks) ;)
RCRC- yahoo annab HAS ja MAT, aga praegu eriti liikunud ei ole. Vaatame.
nextphase
Kas oled sellised firmad meelde jätnud ja konkurentide tulemuste eel näiteks strddle võtnud?
IGT- kes teeb mänguasjadesse vidinaid kukub küll.
DRAM = +MU
ma arvan, et tänane NFLX downgrade pakub head võimalust sisenemiseks
selliseid downgrade on ennegi nähtud,
NFLX puhul tuleb keskenduda sellele, mida juhtkonnal öelda on ja millised on nende eesmärgid

tänane downgrade, kartus BBI konkurentsi ees jm. pseudokad, valmistavad ette toreda negatiivse fooni kahe nädala pärast toimuva calli ajaks, kus lisaks tulemustele tullakse välja ka oma plaanidega Video Downloading'u osas.

usku, vennad