Tere sõbrad,
Tagantjärgi head soovid kõigile 1. advendi puhul. Jõulud on taas suure hooga lähenemas. Kui viimase viie kauplemispäevaga on aktsiaturg üle 20% pidevalt ülespoole liikunud, siis usun, et nüüd, kui turuosalised pärast kalkuni söömist taas monitoride taha asuvad, on karudel nädala alguses rohkem isu oma hambaid näidata. Futuuride esimese tunni kauplemise järel on turud ka protsendi jagu miinuses.
Saab huvitav nädal igatahes olema - neljapäeval teatakse intressimäärade liigutamistest Inglismaa keskpanga ning ECB poolt. Viimastel päevadel on üha enam spekuleeritud 75 baasipunktilisest langetamisest ECB poolt. Nii suurt sammu pole ECB minu teada oma eksisteerimise ajaloo jooksul kordagi veel teinudki.
5. detsembril on põhitähelepanu novembrikuu tööjõuraportil, kust oodatakse 300 000 töökoha kaotamist. Niivõrd suurt koondamiste lainet ei olegi antud majanduse langustsükli jooksul veel kogetud (suurim on seni olnud september 284 000ga), seega ootused majanduse olukorra kohta tunduvad jõudvat reaalselt pessimistlike prognoosideni ning investeerimismaailm on lõpuks omaks võtnud teadmise, et 2009. aasta saab olema keeruline üle maailma.
Yes ,sai juba reedel turu kukkumisele panustatud.Kas laheb samamoodi kui presidendivalimistega, president valitud, kalkun soodud, eufooria otsas?
Molemal korral eelnes kova ralli, Nikkei igaljuhul kohe sukeldus, paneb teistele margi ette?
Molemal korral eelnes kova ralli, Nikkei igaljuhul kohe sukeldus, paneb teistele margi ette?
Ja kuigi OPEC näeb kartelli rahuldava hinnana $75, otsustati tootmismahtude vähendamist nädalavahetusel edasi lükata.
Igatahes esmapilgul tundub, et 1.advendi saabumine on inimeste psüühikale positiivset mõju avaldanud :)
Aktsiahinnad on ju nii madalad. Hea börsilt jõulukinke osta.
Lhv võiks just sellist teenust pakkuda.Jõulukink sõbrale vms.
Nt tahad kinkida sõbrale 100 Acro Vara aktsiat 16 euri eest.
Otselink võiks olla ka kliendiks registreerumiseks kui kontot pole lhv-s tehtud vms
Nt tahad kinkida sõbrale 100 Acro Vara aktsiat 16 euri eest.
Otselink võiks olla ka kliendiks registreerumiseks kui kontot pole lhv-s tehtud vms
Arco aktsiate puhul võiks paketi nimi olla muidugi ka "Jõulukink Vaenlasele." :-D
Kingitud Arco finantse ei vaadata ;)
Yahoo (YHOO) aktsia kaupleb eelturul ligi 10% kõrgemal, kuna levimas on kuulujutud, et Microsoft soovib osta $20 miljardi eest Yahoo otsingumootorit. Esialgu tundub tegemist olevat järjekordse spekulatsiooniga, aga kahtlemata on aktsia selliste juttude suhtes tundlik. Kui enne turgude avamist rohkem infot ei tule, müüakse tõenäoliselt eelturu suur pluss vähemaks.
Varahommikused emotsioonid osutusid õigeks ning nüüdseks on aktsiaindeksid 2.5% punases ning nafta üle 4% punases. Pärast üliõhukest poolikut kauplemispäeva, kus hindu ülespoole suruti (pärast niigi 20%list tõusu turul loetud päevadega), on praegune reageering turu poolt ka igati loomulik.
Meeldib näha et kõik on harjunud selliste liikumistega. nädalaga 20% ja juba2,5 ja 4% miinuses jne.
Minu arust on tegemist ikka suure peataolekuga.Üks suur lahmimine.
No eks traderitel head päevad.
Minu arust on tegemist ikka suure peataolekuga.Üks suur lahmimine.
No eks traderitel head päevad.
arwen, eks praegune aktsiaturg ühte suurt hapukapsa tünni tatrakruupidega meenutab... Koguaeg midagi käärimas... Ajaloolistest keskmistest standardhälvetest ei saa siin midagi rääkida. Nädalaga 20%line tõus aktsiaturu poolt oleks 'tavalistel' aastatel vähemalt 1.5 aasta tootlus. Kuna riske mõõdetakse ikkagi standardhälvetena, siis isegi ka konservatiivsed investeeringud on ajaloolises kontekstis vägagi riskantsed ja sellega tuleb praegu lihtsalt arvestada.
"Kasiino" on praeguse turu nimi.
niisiis, trademine Postimehe põhjal
long EUR fut 1.2617 ..s.t. short dollar
http://www.postimees.ee/?id=53537
long EUR fut 1.2617 ..s.t. short dollar
http://www.postimees.ee/?id=53537
paakide täitmise aeg kätte jõudnud jälle, et rallisse müüa
kasiinost on asi väga kaugel, kui graafikut ei mõista lugeda siis pead end rohkem koolitama
kindlasti pole mõtet hurraaga kogu cashi kinni laksata, ikka tasa ja targu...
kasiinost on asi väga kaugel, kui graafikut ei mõista lugeda siis pead end rohkem koolitama
kindlasti pole mõtet hurraaga kogu cashi kinni laksata, ikka tasa ja targu...
mida hea võimalus hõbedat osta
hahaaa, euri osta no tõesti.... siit tuleks minna täiega lühikeseks praegu ;)
ah, panin kinni. 17 punkti lossi .oleks pidanud hoidma tegelt.
The Bulls' Onus
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
12/1/2008 8:08 AM EST
Those whom the gods would destroy, they first call promising.
-- Cyril Connolly
Five straight days of gains to end November and the potential for seasonal strength has created some hope for this market. Even if the bear market isn't coming to a quick end, many bulls are hopeful that maybe we'll have a decent countertrend rally to end the year.
The bullish case for this market is that we have had so much bad news and are anticipating so much more that we have already priced in the worst. Combine that with the high level of negativity, and the argument is that the market is washed out and should at least hold above the November lows.
The bearish case is that we are still in the icy grips of a bear market and that the trend is down. Maybe we will bounce a bit, but the upside will be limited as the economic news remains negative and many trapped investors look for a way to escape by selling into any strength.
As far as I'm concerned, the burden of proof lies with the bulls. They need to prove that they can get things running for a least a little while before we can be more optimistic, but even if they do, the real difficulty of this market is the degree to which it is being driven by macroeconomic and political events. Valuations are meaningless as we react to the next speech or hearing in Washington.
Charles Krauthammer had a particularly good column in The Washington Post this weekend on this issue. This market is not at all focused on individual stock-picking. It is being pushed around by political news and speculation in the leveraged ETFs. Picking stocks based on fundamentals or charts simply doesn't work very well in this environment.
A bear market is hard enough to deal with, but this market is even worse because the things that are driving us have so little to do with the prospects of an individual stock. Until that changes, there isn't much we can do but adapt by trading smaller and with shorter time frames.
I'd like to be more upbeat, but the poor open this morning confirms how easy it is to be burned by reacting to the promising price action we saw last week. We are set for a very ugly open as worries about the European economy dominate the action. Oil and gold are taking hits as analysis of weekend shopping is pressuring retailers.
-----------------------------
Ülespoole avanevad:
M&A news: MNT +87.9% (to be acquired by JNJ for $31 per share)... Other news: GGP +24.6% (announces two week loan extensions), F +13.0% (Financial Times reports GM and F have approached Sweden's government about financial aid for their loss making Saab and Volvo brands), YHOO +7.7% (still checking; note AllThingsDigital is reporting that there is no $20 bln Microsoft deal to buy Yahoo Search)... Analyst comments: NOA 3.9% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: PPC -8.7% (files to delay 10-Q due to the ongoing discussions with its lenders regarding temporary waivers under its credit facilities and related financial uncertainties)... Select financial names trading lower: BCS -12.6%, UBS -8.9%, IBN -8.6%, DB -8.2%, ING -8.2%, RBS -7.5%, HIG -7.1%, MER -4.7%, GS -4.1% (discloses it entered into a Guarantee Agreement with Goldman Sachs Bank USA, a bank chartered under the laws of the State of New York), MS -4.1%, AXA -3.8%, C -3.7% (Citigroup to sell NikkoCiti Trust - Financial Times), AIG -3.5% (sells Swiss private bank to Abu Dhabi group - Financial Times), BAC -3.2%, HBC -3.1%, JPM -2.1%... Select oil/gas names showing weakness with crude lower after OPEC decided to take no action during its meeting over the weekend: RDC -12.6%, ACGY -10.3%, PWE -8.1%, WFT -7.5%, PBR -7.3%, SU -6.7% (downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform at CIBC Wrld Mkts), HES -6.6%, LUKOY -6.3%, E -6.0%, APA -5.4%, BP -5.2%, TOT -4.7%, CNQ -4.5% (downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform at CIBC Wrld Mkts), ADM -4.5% (downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at BMO Capital Markets), SLB -3.9% (downgraded to Neutral at Merrill), RDS.A -3.5% (Royal Dutch Shell deaths higher than other western groups - FT), COP -3.4%, PDS -3.0% (downgraded to Underperform at Merrill), CVX -2.6%... Select metals/mining names showing weakness with lower spot prices: AAUK -13.4%, DROOY -10.8%, SLV -10.0%, AUY -8.8%, RTP -8.2%, BBL -7.3%, SLW -7.2%, MT -7.2% (suspends construction of steel foundry in Maputo province - macauhub), RIO -7.2%, GOLD -7.1%, AEM -6.0%, IAG -5.5%, BHP -5.3%, ABX -5.3%, GG -5.3%, ACH -2.9% (downgraded to Underweight from Neutral at HSBC Securities)... Select solar names trading lower: STP -12.1%, SOL -11.2%, TSL -8.5%, YGE -7.8%, CSIQ -4.7%, SOLF -4.1%, ESLR -3.3%, FSLR -3.1%... Other news: GFA -13.2% (discloses its shareholder FMR has disposed of 3.41 mln ADRs), BIDU -7.0% (Baidu faces wave of legal challenges - Financial Times), NOK -4.0% (still checking), UL -3.5% (still checking), GM -3.2% (racing to craft a convincing viability plan - WSJ), AZN -2.9% (still checking for anything specific)... Analyst comments: ITRN -4.8% (downgraded to Neutral at JPMorgan), STM -4.7% (downgraded to Sell at Societe Generale), XL -4.0% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Merrill Lynch), MTL -1.9% (downgraded to Neutral at Credit Suisse), DSX -1.5% (downgraded to Underweight from Hold at BB&T Capital Mkts).
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
12/1/2008 8:08 AM EST
Those whom the gods would destroy, they first call promising.
-- Cyril Connolly
Five straight days of gains to end November and the potential for seasonal strength has created some hope for this market. Even if the bear market isn't coming to a quick end, many bulls are hopeful that maybe we'll have a decent countertrend rally to end the year.
The bullish case for this market is that we have had so much bad news and are anticipating so much more that we have already priced in the worst. Combine that with the high level of negativity, and the argument is that the market is washed out and should at least hold above the November lows.
The bearish case is that we are still in the icy grips of a bear market and that the trend is down. Maybe we will bounce a bit, but the upside will be limited as the economic news remains negative and many trapped investors look for a way to escape by selling into any strength.
As far as I'm concerned, the burden of proof lies with the bulls. They need to prove that they can get things running for a least a little while before we can be more optimistic, but even if they do, the real difficulty of this market is the degree to which it is being driven by macroeconomic and political events. Valuations are meaningless as we react to the next speech or hearing in Washington.
Charles Krauthammer had a particularly good column in The Washington Post this weekend on this issue. This market is not at all focused on individual stock-picking. It is being pushed around by political news and speculation in the leveraged ETFs. Picking stocks based on fundamentals or charts simply doesn't work very well in this environment.
A bear market is hard enough to deal with, but this market is even worse because the things that are driving us have so little to do with the prospects of an individual stock. Until that changes, there isn't much we can do but adapt by trading smaller and with shorter time frames.
I'd like to be more upbeat, but the poor open this morning confirms how easy it is to be burned by reacting to the promising price action we saw last week. We are set for a very ugly open as worries about the European economy dominate the action. Oil and gold are taking hits as analysis of weekend shopping is pressuring retailers.
-----------------------------
Ülespoole avanevad:
M&A news: MNT +87.9% (to be acquired by JNJ for $31 per share)... Other news: GGP +24.6% (announces two week loan extensions), F +13.0% (Financial Times reports GM and F have approached Sweden's government about financial aid for their loss making Saab and Volvo brands), YHOO +7.7% (still checking; note AllThingsDigital is reporting that there is no $20 bln Microsoft deal to buy Yahoo Search)... Analyst comments: NOA 3.9% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: PPC -8.7% (files to delay 10-Q due to the ongoing discussions with its lenders regarding temporary waivers under its credit facilities and related financial uncertainties)... Select financial names trading lower: BCS -12.6%, UBS -8.9%, IBN -8.6%, DB -8.2%, ING -8.2%, RBS -7.5%, HIG -7.1%, MER -4.7%, GS -4.1% (discloses it entered into a Guarantee Agreement with Goldman Sachs Bank USA, a bank chartered under the laws of the State of New York), MS -4.1%, AXA -3.8%, C -3.7% (Citigroup to sell NikkoCiti Trust - Financial Times), AIG -3.5% (sells Swiss private bank to Abu Dhabi group - Financial Times), BAC -3.2%, HBC -3.1%, JPM -2.1%... Select oil/gas names showing weakness with crude lower after OPEC decided to take no action during its meeting over the weekend: RDC -12.6%, ACGY -10.3%, PWE -8.1%, WFT -7.5%, PBR -7.3%, SU -6.7% (downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform at CIBC Wrld Mkts), HES -6.6%, LUKOY -6.3%, E -6.0%, APA -5.4%, BP -5.2%, TOT -4.7%, CNQ -4.5% (downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform at CIBC Wrld Mkts), ADM -4.5% (downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at BMO Capital Markets), SLB -3.9% (downgraded to Neutral at Merrill), RDS.A -3.5% (Royal Dutch Shell deaths higher than other western groups - FT), COP -3.4%, PDS -3.0% (downgraded to Underperform at Merrill), CVX -2.6%... Select metals/mining names showing weakness with lower spot prices: AAUK -13.4%, DROOY -10.8%, SLV -10.0%, AUY -8.8%, RTP -8.2%, BBL -7.3%, SLW -7.2%, MT -7.2% (suspends construction of steel foundry in Maputo province - macauhub), RIO -7.2%, GOLD -7.1%, AEM -6.0%, IAG -5.5%, BHP -5.3%, ABX -5.3%, GG -5.3%, ACH -2.9% (downgraded to Underweight from Neutral at HSBC Securities)... Select solar names trading lower: STP -12.1%, SOL -11.2%, TSL -8.5%, YGE -7.8%, CSIQ -4.7%, SOLF -4.1%, ESLR -3.3%, FSLR -3.1%... Other news: GFA -13.2% (discloses its shareholder FMR has disposed of 3.41 mln ADRs), BIDU -7.0% (Baidu faces wave of legal challenges - Financial Times), NOK -4.0% (still checking), UL -3.5% (still checking), GM -3.2% (racing to craft a convincing viability plan - WSJ), AZN -2.9% (still checking for anything specific)... Analyst comments: ITRN -4.8% (downgraded to Neutral at JPMorgan), STM -4.7% (downgraded to Sell at Societe Generale), XL -4.0% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Merrill Lynch), MTL -1.9% (downgraded to Neutral at Credit Suisse), DSX -1.5% (downgraded to Underweight from Hold at BB&T Capital Mkts).