Ericsson teatas, et marginalid on ettevõttel veelgi paranenud, oodata on võimsaid tulemusi, aktsia loomulikult rallib. Antud uudiste valguses tasub panustada Oplinki aktsiasse, mille aktsia hind on jõudnud tugeva vastupanutaseme alla. Antud taseme (2,5 USD) murdmisel tasub aktsias pikaks minna. Suure tõenäosusega jõuab Oplink peagi kasumisse ja siis võib aktsia kiiresti liikuda ka 5 USD suunas. Oplinki turuväärtus on hetkel 362 mln USD, likviidseid vahendeid on firmal 170 mln USD ulatuses - no comments!
Kuna Oplink on jõudnud LHV enamkaubeldud aktsiate nimistusse, siis on ehk oluline teada, et Oplinki hakkas katma esimene analüütik, kes prognoosib aktsia hinnaks aasta perspektiivis 4 USD.
JOHN HARMON, CFA • JHARMON@NEEDHAMCO.COM • 212/705-0397 May 6, 2004 Oplink Communications, Inc. (OPLK/OTC)
Oplink has transformed itself from a passive-optical-component manufacturer to a provider of optical manufacturing solutions (OMS), designing and building optical modules and subsystems that contain optical components, electronics, and software for global communication-equipment makers. Investment Recommendation (12 months): Initiating Coverage with a Buy
•We are initiating coverage of Oplink with a Buy rating and a 12-month price target of $4. Oplink has transformed itself from a passive-optical-component manufacturer to a provider of optical manufacturing solutions (OMS), designing and building optical modules and subsystems, which contain optical components, electronics, and software, for global communication-equipment makers. The OMS business has grown over the past year from zero to contribute 65% of sales.
•Growth drivers. We believe Oplink will grow faster than its peers because of the following competitive advantages: (1) focus on modules and subsystems, which enables it to undertake much of the optical design that smaller optical networking equipment companies no longer have the resources to perform; (2) existence as an optical fab, which segregates manufacturing to ensure that customers’ intellectual property stays secure; and (3) low-cost manufacturing, following the move of R&D and manufacturing to Zhuhai, China, in 2002.
•Marquee customers. Oplink counts the largest optical networking vendors as its customers. Its largest customers are Nortel, Tellabs, Fujitsu and Huawei.
•Healthy margins, near breakeven. In its last quarter, Oplink earned 35% gross margins, reached 61% incremental margins, broke even on a pro forma basis and had positive cash flow, well ahead of its optical-component peers, most of which continue to burn cash. We estimate Oplink will become profitable on a GAAP basis by the end of the calendar year, also well ahead of its peers.
•Estimates. We estimate revenues and EPS of $33.7 million and $(0.02) in fiscal 2004, respectively, growing to $47.5 million and $0.01 in fiscal 2005. •Attractively valued. Oplink shares trade at a discount to peers JDS Uniphase and Avanex on the basis of EV/CY05E sales and price to tangible book value. Net cash of $1.29 per share and tangible book value of $1.49 limit downside risk.
•Risks. Our $4 target price is based on average price-to-tangible-book multiples. Risks to achieving it are Oplink’s relatively low market share, low entry barriers in passives and offshore manufacturing, and large share blocks in the hands of foreign VCs and relatives of management.
Noh, eks langev turg võtab kaasa ka paremad firmad. Just nagu tõus kergitab kõiki paate. Või nagu investeerimisguru Lynch on öelnud: If a stock goes up, it doesn't mean you're right and if a stock goes down, doesn't mean you are wrong.
