Kus ma ütlesin, et Starlink on ainuke tegija? Minu väide on, et telekomil ei ole vaja ASTS-iga käivet jagada mujal kui karupees. Ehk kopikate saagimine.
Ja pole olemas sellist asja nagu ASTS-i exclusivityt telekomidega.
Seesama Telefonica tütre koostöö Starlink-ga on ehe näide, kus fanboyde jaoks oli see turg nende taskus. Aga ei olnud.
Prepare for the Musk vs Bezos cage fight, 10/28/26
Much of the talk at yesterday’s Satellite Innovation conference in Mountain View, including my presentation, focused on the challenges that SpaceX poses for the rest of the space industry and (more importanty) the wider telecom seetor. In the background there’s the additional threat from the
“missing pieces” that Musk highlighted during the Spacex results call last week. That is widely recognized as Space’s plan to acquire the rest of EchoStar in a share-based transaction, which would allow Space to pick up the remnants of DISH Wireless network, along with the rest of EchoStar’s spectrum in the AWS-3 and CBRS bands, and save the cash outlay that would otherwise have been paid for the AWS-4 and Band 70 spectrum.
The benefit for EchoStar holders, and Charlie Ergen in particular, would be that a share-based transaction could be tax free, unlike the cash sales of spectrum. These direct negotiations with Charlie Ergen are the reasons that the tower companies have been so vocal in their recent results calls (for example about rights to abandoned equipment), and why we saw chatter about an 80,000 tower buildout last week (since a larger commitment by SpaceX could allow for a better price on the existing leases). And it would not be surprising if the deal was announced as soon as next week, given that mediation is scheduled through November 4, although Ergen is known for being a tough negotiator and might make it hard to reach an agreement on price.
But that’s mainly a telecom industry issue, and what was animating numerous people I spoke to yesterday, is the expectation that Amazon will soon announce the acquisition of Viasat, mainly for their international spectrum holdings, but also to combine Viasat’s Ka-band GEO business with Amazon Leo, and strengthen Amazon’s position in the goverment and aviation market (and incidentally remove
Telesat’s biggest commercial
customer for Lightspeed). Equatys would be
abandoned as a satellite project, although Amazon would need to maintain a relationship with Space42 to coordinate access to the L-band spectrum in EMEA. I’m also told AST has attempted to put together a rival bid, but that would require significant support from the teleos, and would be vehemently opposed by Viasat management. In contrast, selling Viasat to Amazon could be seen as a graceful exit, before Viasat’s current GEO business is overwhelmed by LEO competition.
In the D2D market, Amazon is seen as the most realistic potential savor by the teleos, as belief that AST will ever deliver a useful service ebbs away. The telco JV seems poised to sign MOUs with both Amazon and AST (since there’s no point in throwing AST under the bus at this point in time), although it remains to be seen how quickly Amazon would be able to bring a new D2D service to market (beyond Globalstar C3 which is presumably only going to work on iPhones) and how much capacity it would be able to provide in the US. Clearly the FCC is also now taking the position that the entire LEO market will mostly just be a SpaceX ys Amazon fight, and yesterday approved Amazon’s acquisition of Globalstar, removing one of the possible holdups to a deal. What that means for AST’s deal with Ligado remains to be seen, and an ECC decision on the SkyTerra Next plan might wait until elarity emerges on Amazon-Viasat. And AST’s relationship with Ligado remains tense: Ligado does not benefit at all from the high valuations now being put on MSS spectrum, because AST pays Ligado just enough to cover the ongoing lease payments to Viasat. Thus Ligado’s only objective is to settle its litigation with the US goverment and walk away with a large amount of money (or more likely auction bidding credits), giving up its spectrum rights in exchange, which would leave AST in the lurch (and perhaps return more spectrum to Viasat).
TMF
Ma saan aru allakirjutaja on TMF ehk siis Tim Farrar - konsultant, kes enamus ajast spekuleerib asju välja ja ajab paska. Lisaks on tal ASTiga personaalne agenda, sest AST ei palganud teda 5a tagasi konsultandiks. Sellest ajast ta muud ei räägi, kui et kõik läheb pekki.
Umbes 99% tema väidetest viimase 5a jooksul on kõik olnud valed ja hiljem faktsiliselt ümber lükatud.
Kogu viimane sektsioon on järjekordne tema ettevaatav spekulatsioon.
Ma tema väiteid võtaks väga suure soolateraga.
1 Like
Ajab paska? Väidad sina, kellelt tuleb ainult umbluud?
1 Like
Tim Farrar aastal 2019:
“Starlink may provide service for customers with no access to terrestrial broadband alternatives, but the satellite broadband market has fewer than 2 million subscribers in North America and 1 million users in the rest of the world combined, which Viasat, Echostar and others have spent the last decade trying to serve (and at least in North America have essentially saturated the market). So it seems unlikely that Starlink will do much better.”
“While Starlink may be a ‘big deal’ for the satellite industry (and for astronomers), it certainly isn’t a big deal for the terrestrial broadband market… Starlink’s ability to disrupt a retail market where existing providers have existing infrastructure with enormous gross margins will be very limited.”
Viitsid need valeväited välja tuua?
Täiesti õige kirjutis ka aastal 2026. Selleks, et nende mängumaale saada, peab hakkama mastide poole vaatama.
Starlink did not sign up customers as quickly as SpaceX originally hoped, missing the 2022 subscriber target by about 95%.
Teine sektsioon sellest kirjutisest on suures osas kõik tuletis ja spekulatsioon.
Tänapäeval on väga head tööriistad olemas, mis võimaldavad kiirelt factcheckida neid väiteid.
Ei pea minu öeldule toetuma.
1 Like
Need väited on Broadband teenuse kohta, sellel ei ole mastidega mitte midagi pistmist.
Aastal 2019 ei rääkinud D2D mobiilsidest veel keegi.
Starlink Q3 2026 Broadband teenus:
13.6M klienti
5.25B käivet
1 Like
Timmy on jah suht tuntud kloun
Sa ise tõid näite, milles ta nagu puusse pani. Väide 2019, mis oli tõenäoliselt Muski plaanide kohta broadbandi pakkuma hakata igal pool, siis ta ütles, et terrestrial broadband unustagu ära
Ja 2022 aastaks olidki Muski broadband plaanid täitunud vaid 5% planeeritust.
Ja selleks, et ta inimestele ligi saaks, on mastide temaatika päevakorral.
Pudrujaam, sina oled tema mõistes #cluelesscult ja minu arvates selle nime auga ära teninud.
AST teavitas FCC, et alustas teenuse osutamist Filipiinidel.
MNOks on Smart Communications - ca. 60m klienti
Lisaks on neil MOU sõlmitud teise suure Globe Telecomiga - 67m klienti
Seal maailmanurgas on lisaks metsadele ka mäed ja palju merd.
3 Likes
Ainult kuradi vähe raha.
The monthly blended mobile Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) in the Philippines is approximately $2.00 to $3.00 USD, heavily weighted by the country’s massive prepaid subscriber base (which makes up over 95% of the total market).
Ja kõned on langustrendis, inimesed lähevad üle äppidele. Kõned on tasuta, bundles.
Aga jah, metsad, mäed ja merd seal on.
Teenuse osutamisest on asi ikka veel väga kaugel.
-
Demonstration Permit: Smart Communications holds a 30-day demonstration permit approved for testing technology across four specific locations: Pampanga, Batangas, Ilocos Norte, and Bataan. [1]
-
Spectrum Use: The tests utilize frequency bands licensed exclusively to Smart (700 MHz, 850 MHz, and 900 MHz) to connect standard smartphones directly to low-Earth-orbit satellites. [1]
-
No Commercial Launch Yet: This phase is strictly for trials/beta testing. No nationwide commercial launch date or permanent frequency authorization has been established yet. [1]
-
Safety Protocols: AST SpaceMobile has committed to immediately switching off satellite beams over any affected areas if verified harmful interference occurs. [1]
1 Like